How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Elixir]

A stronger Ukraine will encourage Russia to seek other victims to bully.

Hmph. In ten years it’s likely that Ukraine’s economy will be larger than Russia’s. Russia’s bullying days will be over, at least temporarily.

 

[barbos]

Russia will have negotiate to keep Crimea, if they are lucky.

Russia will nuke Kiev if necessary to keep Crimea.
No negotiations.
And again, recent retreat is not as significant as CNN says. In fact it's probably good thing for Russia and bad for Ukraine in the long run.

I predict that Russia will probably retain Crimea. But that it's soldiers will eventually evacuate to pre-Feb 28 positions. But Ukraine will once again cut off the water to Crimea. No land bridge. Just my prediction. But you'll have a heavily armed and angry Ukraine on your border; and a much stronger and united NATO; and no Nord stream.

I don't care about your predictions. Putin will do mobilization and nuke the Kiev if necessary but Russia is not going to lose this war with NATO.

My prediction is less drastic, Russia will freeze EU into submission. I mean, this seems to be the current plan.

You still has not answered my question.

Nuking Kyiv would be mass murder. Genocide. Do you think the world would accept that and go back to business as usual with Russia?

Well, the world accepted NATO shelling Russian Nuclear power plant. So we are slowly moving toward accepting unacceptable.

Oh gosh! This is getting embarrassing having to correct you. But the nuclear plant that is being bombed by someone is Zaporizhzhia. And it actually belongs to Ukraine. Your side temporarily took it over. But quite honestly, your guys aren't running it well. Dangerous situation. I'd recommend sticking with gas and oil. Managing nuclear power plants is much more complex.

No, it belongs to Russia now and is being run by .... the same Ukrainian crew.
And It was built by .... russians, albeit during USSR. but it is the same design which is used throughout Russia.

You still have not answered my question.

 

[Elixir]

NATO invaded and occupied it prior to that.

Wtf? What happened to the Nazis that were the reason last week?
Do you even notice when your stories change day by day?

 

[barbos]

Russia started off the invasion with equivalent of $670 billion in monetary reserves. $340 was in Western banks and is frozen. Ther burn rate has been large and Russia has been financing Pooty's special military operation with these funds. Russia will have spent the last of it with in about 12 to 18 months. Then it is crunch time. Russia can no longer borrow money, or get foreign investments. The clock is ticking.

OK, what about Ukraine finances?
And EU, don't forget EU, Germany especially.
Last time I checked, EU critters were complaining that Russia actually earns more because of gas prices, not less.

Your whole damn idea behind this war you started was to sanction Russia to death.
It has not happened and it's not going to any time soon. Your own eggheads are now writing theses about it now. It utterly failed.

Well, of course this war started on Feb 28, 2022 when Russian forces invaded Ukraine. However, I'm very curious, why is it so important as to who started the war? To me, it's far more important to try to find a way to just end it. Keep sending in the weapons to Ukraine. Help train their soldiers. Help and encourage them anyway we can. And then once the war is over, help Ukraine rebuild and rearm. Help make them stronger. A stronger Ukraine will encourage Russia to seek other victims to bully. Am I offbase?

Well, It started way before that, even before 2014. I would say 2008 or even earlier in 2003.

 

[Harry Bosch]

A stronger Ukraine will encourage Russia to seek other victims to bully.

Hmph. In ten years it’s likely that Ukraine’s economy will be larger than Russia’s. Russia’s bullying days will be over, at least temporarily.

Agreed. Russia is screwed. They have an economy based on a resource that has about a 5-year remaining life. As Putler clamps down on the reasonable Russian citizens, the brain drain will disseminate all sectors of their economy that require tech. Meanwhile the capitalistic west will continue weaning off gas; and will continue its tech and information economies. We don't need a super strong military; our economy long term will bury the Russian country.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Satellite photos show no Ukranian shelling. Despite Russians using reactor grounds to set up artillery.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Russia started off the invasion with equivalent of $670 billion in monetary reserves. $340 was in Western banks and is frozen. Ther burn rate has been large and Russia has been financing Pooty's special military operation with these funds. Russia will have spent the last of it with in about 12 to 18 months. Then it is crunch time. Russia can no longer borrow money, or get foreign investments. The clock is ticking.

OK, what about Ukraine finances?
And EU, don't forget EU, Germany especially.
Last time I checked, EU critters were complaining that Russia actually earns more because of gas prices, not less.

Your whole damn idea behind this war you started was to sanction Russia to death.
It has not happened and it's not going to any time soon. Your own eggheads are now writing theses about it now. It utterly failed.

Well, of course this war started on Feb 28, 2022 when Russian forces invaded Ukraine. However, I'm very curious, why is it so important as to who started the war? To me, it's far more important to try to find a way to just end it. Keep sending in the weapons to Ukraine. Help train their soldiers. Help and encourage them anyway we can. And then once the war is over, help Ukraine rebuild and rearm. Help make them stronger. A stronger Ukraine will encourage Russia to seek other victims to bully. Am I offbase?

Well, It started way before that, even before 2014. I would say 2008 or even earlier in 2003.

I don't agree. But even if true, why is this so important? I'm sure we were very mean to Russia before 2008. Russians are very good at manufacturing excuses to attack other countries. Why is this so important to your side? Why not just man up: attack, loot and rampage; get your wiggles out; then return to your country when it the rampaging isn't as much fun? But stop making excuses. It's so passive aggressive and weak.

 

[Elixir]

Why is this so important to your side? Why not just man up: attack, loot and rampage; get your wiggles out; then return to your country when it the rampaging isn't as much fun?

As discussed above, Russia's main asset is gas&oil, and it's running out. Ukraine's main asset is the ability to produce billions of tons of food.
Pootey can't tell his peeps to go home to no food, and they can't eat oil...

 

[Rhea]

As far as I understand they have been doing pretty good job of exterminating ukrainian human soldiers.

Your language is really deeply disturbing.

“Exterminating” ?? What made you want to sound like a Nazi?

 

[lpetrich]

Iryna Voichuk on Twitter: "#Izyum is Ukraine! Glory to the defenders of Ukraine! (pic link)" / Twitter - with a picture of some Ukrainian soldiers near a big sign with "Izyum" in the Ukrainian version of the Cyrillic alphabet.

MASSIVE RUSSIAN COLLAPSEDay 199UPDATESIZYUM on Twitter: "RUSSIA IN TOTAL CRISIS
REGIME TV CALLS ON PEOPLE TO PRAY
#IZYUM #, Ukraine (vid link)" / Twitter

Pray??? Half a century ago, he'd be thought of as like some drug addict, an addict of the Opium of the People.

Mykola on Twitter: "#Kupyansk is liberated and under #Ukrainian flag again! It is a strategic logistics hub through which #Russia supplied its forces in the #Donbas from the north. #Izyum is on the way.
Donate to Ukraine, to help #UkrainianArmy liberate more of our land.
#SlavaUkraine! (pix link)" / Twitter


olexander scherba on Twitter: "Just yesterday the occupation administration of #Kharkiv oblast was relocated from the liberated #Kupyansk to occupied #Volchansk. Today as Volchansk is being liberated, it moves to Belgorod. With things unraveling this fast, soon it’ll be in Vladivostok.
#UkraineWillWin" / Twitter

Vovchansk (misspelled Volchansk in that tweet) is northeast of Kharkiv and near the border with Russia.

 

[SLD]

Maybe if you stopped invading your neighbors that neighboring countries would be friendlier to Russia?

You first. Russia had friendly Ukraine. Then you came and overthrew their government and installed nazi and very unfriendly regime which started civil war in their own country and then with Russia. Now they are shelling nuclear plant with your weapons.
And your shitty media is not interested in that.


Before that, you did the same in Georgia.

We shelled a Nuclear Power Plant in Georgia? Didn't know they had one. Our media really is lying to us!

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Why is this so important to your side? Why not just man up: attack, loot and rampage; get your wiggles out; then return to your country when it the rampaging isn't as much fun?

As discussed above, Russia's main asset is gas&oil, and it's running out. Ukraine's main asset is the ability to produce billions of tons of food.
Pootey can't tell his peeps to go home to no food, and they can't eat oil...

A big problem for Russia is that their best oil and gas fields are in North Russia. This used to be frozen tundra. But as the climate warms, these areas are becoming summer time swamps. Roads are sinking, buildings have their foundations sinking, and drilling oil and gas is getting more difficult and expensive. The good old days for Russian oil and gas production are ending.

 

[lpetrich]

The Russian Ministry (Department) of Defense:
Francis Scarr on Twitter: "The Russian MoD has finally acknowledged that something is up
"In order to achieve the declared aims of the special military op to liberate Donbas, a decision has been made to regroup the troops in the Balakliya and Izyum areas in order to boost efforts in the Donetsk area" (pic link with the original Russian statement)" / Twitter

Larissa on Twitter: "@francis_scarr (pic link)" / Twitter - "RUSSIAN TROOPS RETREAT VICTORIOUSLY, UKRAINIAN ARMY RUNS AFTER THEM IN PANIC"

Christo Grozev on Twitter: ""Izyum has been surrendered...and this sadly is not the end"
Desperation steadily seeping in and replacing the "small setback but let's not despair" mood of yesterday. (pic link with original Russian)" / Twitter

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Russia will have negotiate to keep Crimea, if they are lucky.

Russia will nuke Kiev if necessary to keep Crimea.
No negotiations.
And again, recent retreat is not as significant as CNN says. In fact it's probably good thing for Russia and bad for Ukraine in the long run.

I predict that Russia will probably retain Crimea. But that it's soldiers will eventually evacuate to pre-Feb 28 positions. But Ukraine will once again cut off the water to Crimea. No land bridge. Just my prediction. But you'll have a heavily armed and angry Ukraine on your border; and a much stronger and united NATO; and no Nord stream.

I don't care about your predictions. Putin will do mobilization and nuke the Kiev if necessary but Russia is not going to lose this war with NATO.

My prediction is less drastic, Russia will freeze EU into submission. I mean, this seems to be the current plan.

You still has not answered my question.

Nuking Kyiv would be mass murder. Genocide. Do you think the world would accept that and go back to business as usual with Russia?

Well, the world accepted NATO shelling Russian Nuclear power plant. So we are slowly moving toward accepting unacceptable.

Not an answer! Nuke Kyiv and Russia will be an international pariah. I suspect NATO nations and major nations like the U.S., Britain, France, Germany et al are already planning actions if Russia is so stupid to do this.

 

[Jayjay]

Which is mostly bullshit promoted by Russian propaganda.

Bullshit

Not according to the scholars mentioned in the Haaretz article. Unfortunately it's behind paywall and I can't access it anymore, but I presume it was based on peer reviewed research.

So while there are some inaccuracies in Ukrainian textbooks,

inaccuracies??
You call 400 thousand years old Ukraine inaccuracy?

I thought these were jokes. But there is this thing called Chat Roulette and when this shit started it became popular and it turns out they were really teaching that garbage in schools. It really really made me mad and support this operation to the end.
As far as I am concerned all authors of these books should be caught, tried and send to prison to the rest of their lives.

This "400 thousand year old Ukraine" and other nonsense doesn't seem to show up anywhere except Russian propaganda. Maybe books like that exist, after all almost anybody can publish a textbook, but is it actually taught anywhere? If it was, then how come the Israeli scholars who went through Ukrainian textbooks could possibly miss it?

Show me your research. Link to the book's publisher's website, or a school in Ukraine that lists these books as mandatory reading, with exact quotes of the offending paragraphs in the book. But you can't do that, because it's some made-up nonsense you saw on Youtube or "chat roulette". I'll believe the folks interviewed by Haaretz, thank you.

EDIT: And if inaccuracy in history books makes you so mad you want to support military operations against countries who do that, you better pick up your AK-47 and start marching to Kremlin:

Russians rewrite history textbooks, removing mentions of Ukraine and Kyiv - Russian media

ALENA MAZURENKO — SATURDAY, 23 APRIL 2022, 23:12

www.pravda.com.ua

Employees of Prosveshchieniye [Enlightenment], one of the oldest Russian publishers of educational literature, are being forced to remove all mentions of Ukraine and Kyiv from textbooks.

Source: Employees of the publishers, talking to Mediazona

Details: According to two employees of Prosveshcheniye, speaking on condition of anonymity, they are being forced to rewrite history textbooks for Russian schoolchildren or lose their jobs.

It is noted that the policy of "purging" Ukraine and Kyiv from Russian textbooks was set as early as 2014 - since then, authors and editors have had to mention Ukraine as rarely as possible and in the most neutral tone.

On the first day of the war [in 2022], Prosveshcheniye’s employees received verbal instructions to remove mentions of Ukraine wherever possible. This is particularly challenging for those in charge of history textbooks.

Chop chop.

 

[lpetrich]

There are lots of unverified claims, like this one:

Олег Чорний on Twitter: "@GazetaRu 25-я бригада ВСУ вошла в украинский город Изюм. Русские войска бежали с позором. Также сообщают об оставлении русскими войсками Сватово. Вереницы машин с коллаборантами стоят на российской границе. Россия не пускает к себе предателей Украины." / Twitter
Google Translate, from Russian:

The 25th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine entered the Ukrainian city of Izyum. Russian troops fled in disgrace. They also report the abandonment of Svatovo by the Russian troops. Lines of cars with collaborators stand on the Russian border. Russia does not let traitors to Ukraine.

That last part is rather confusing. Is Russia not letting anyone cross into Ukraine?

Also:
Anonymous Operations on Twitter: "BREAKING: The Kremlin now confirming that Russian Forces have withdrawn from #Izyum." / Twitter
Unfortunately, it is unsourced.

Anonymous Operations on Twitter: "Pro-Russian media channels are now claiming the #Kharkiv Front has collapsed." / Twitter
then
Anonymous Operations on Twitter: "And now Russian social media channels are reporting that #Izyum has fallen. #SlavaUkraini" / Twitter

 

[SLD]

Are you not bothered at all that this war has been going for more than 6 months now; 50,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured;

That's a lie. And it's a lie on a couple of levels.

OK. What have been your casualties?

I'm just curious, though, was it Putin's plan to get his ass kicked all along?

Ukraine counter-offensive: Russian forces retreat as Ukraine takes key towns

The Ukrainian advances - if held - would be the most significant since Russia withdrew from near Kyiv in April.

www.bbc.com

Also check out this propaganda piece:



A translation:

What happened under Balakleya?

The actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were obvious and predictable, but everything came out suddenly for some reason

In fact, by 14:00 on September 6, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine had already gone on the offensive, for unknown reasons, which, we hope, officials will tell, the Balakleya garrison was abandoned by the Defense Ministry and militia units. Two companies of VNG and SOBR, OMON TU of the Russian Guard were practically alone in the city, towards which about 15 (!) Tanks broke through

The Armed Forces of Ukraine rapidly occupied 8 settlements near Balakleya in half a day, including Bayrak, Chervonaya Gusarovka, Grakovo, Verbovka, Savintsy, Novaya Gusarovka

Today the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupied Yakovenkovo, Brigade

AFU in the direction of Ud occupied Sosnovka and Dementievka, where there were units of the Northern Fleet

The Armed Forces of Ukraine concentrated a powerful tank fist in the direction of Ud, at the peak of the offensive, 15-17 vehicles went forward

The aviation of the group could not help the garrison of the Russian Guard in time, since the direction is saturated with Ukrainian air defense (no one set the task of identifying and destroying which the intelligence and special forces of the GRU, because intelligence, due to the lack of infantry, was used to storm oporniks and cities)

As two weeks ago, during the evacuation of civilians from the OMON Department of the Russian Guard, almost zero interaction was revealed between the artillery of the Moscow Region and the police units of the Russian Guard, which acted autonomously from each other for the 7th month of the war

When asked to suppress the enemy, extra clarifications and nods were made to the presence of their own (!) Artillery units near the VNG (already whole 120 mm mortars)

Later at 14:00, the evacuation of the garrison became impossible, since the road was under the fire control of the enemy

Now Balakleya is still holding out, aviation is working at its limit, pilots are going into hell to bombard enemy columns

The enemy uses the tactics of a swift attack: the advance group with MTR / special forces fighters flies in an armored column at speed into the center of the settlement, dismounts, suppresses everything around, then hold the settlement. the main armor group is suitable

Is this just more western propaganda? Or has Putin arrested and shot this guy yet?

 

[lpetrich]

Apex on Twitter: "Reported video of Ukrainian forces moving through #Kupyansk: (vid link)" / Twitter
With "Our Kupyansk" on the video. But there wasn't much to identify that video, unlike that big signpost with "Izyum" in Ukrainian Cyrillic letters.

Ukraine News on Twitter: "#Ukraine #KharkivOffensive : Russian's Run Away from #Kupiansk
A video showing Russian's fleeing #Kupyansk - geolocated to here: 49.709359358884015, 37.66038544684833
#UkraineWillWin (vid link)" / Twitter
About 2 mi / 3 km east of Kupyansk


Botschaften der Russischen Lügeration on Twitter: "#Izyum, #Kupyansk, #Lyman und #Sviatohirsk sind in nur 24h von der Armee der #Ukraine eingenommen worden. #Russland‘s Front bricht zusammen. Die taktische Karte zeigt noch das Bild von gestern.
#SlavaUkraini (pic link)" / Twitter
Google Translate from German:

#Izyum , #Kupyansk , #Lyman and #Sviatohirsk have been captured by the army of #Ukraine in just 24 hours. #Russland 's front collapses.
The tactical map still shows the picture from yesterday.
#SlavaUkraini

 

[Jayjay]

Dude, it was propaganda aimed at ukrainians and CNN.

I cannot find any mention of it in CNN, or major news. Not sure if it's even published in Ukrainian news.

So?

So it's pretty weak to claim that it was propaganda aimed at ukrainians and CNN, if the story isn't pushed on CNN or in Ukraine.

And it doesn't make any sense for propaganda that's aimed to Ukrainian or western audiences, to be distributed in Russian telegram groups

"In russian" != "russian" let alone pro-russian.
telegram channels are generally garbage. I mean if you don't know for sure you can trust it then it's most likely garbage.

The channel mentioned was definitely "pro-Russian", in the sense that it was a rabid Russian nationalist mercenary channel. And who cares if it's garbage? The point was that it completely resonates with militant Russian audiences, and not just that one channel, but other forums (I googled for some phrases in the text, and got many hits, though I can't be bothered to try to read them via google translate). It's as if the Protocols of the Elders of Zion became a hit in Jewish instagram.

The point is that if it was a fabrication, it wouldn't be stupid. It would be impossibly well-crafted and so convincing that Russians shared it among themselves and agreed with its message of cracking down on Ukrainians in occupied territories..

Bullshit. Total bullshit. It is 190000009% fabrication. ukrainian trolls shared it among themselves.

Did they? Show me where.

Fact: You have given ZERO evidence to suggest the story was fabricated or propaganda.

That's not how it works. I don't need to refute every single piece of ukro-nazi propaganda. I can show few cases and declare the rest as trash.

You haven't shown that it is "ukro-nazi propaganda". It's an account written by a Russian, in Russian, for Russians. Not even the translation came from Ukraine. There isn't a single Ukrainian rung in the ladder, that we know of.

Here's an analogy:

If I see on Ria Novosti or some other Russian propaganda channel a person being interviewed, waving a Russian flag and saying that the he hates Ukraine and the Russian occupation in Donetsk is the best thing since sliced bread, I can dismiss it as propaganda.

But if CNN reporter interviews a donetsk citizen who escaped to, say, Norway, and who says that he hates Ukraine and the Russian occupation in Donetsk is the best thing since sliced bread, I cannot dismiss it as propaganda. I can dismiss the person being interviewed as a victim of propaganda, but there's no reason to think the hypothetical CNN interview itself is a Russian propaganda piece.

Nobody is saying you can't ignore it for being anonymous and not verified (like Jimmy), but then you could've just shut up about it. Yet you're making positive claims that it's propaganda or false. But you haven't given any evidence or reasons to think so.

 

[lpetrich]

I'm seeing some joking comments about the Ukrainian Army going all the way to Vladivostok, on the Pacific Ocean near China and North Korea.

Alexander Clarkson on Twitter: "When Russian military bloggers realise that the reserves needed to hold Izyum are currently near the Chinese border for the annual Vostok exercise" / Twitter
In the Russian Far East.

Alexander Clarkson on Twitter: "When Russian military bloggers realise that the reserves needed to hold Izyum are currently near the Chinese border for the annual Vostok exercise" / Twitter
Showing a map of Russia getting some territory from China in the mid 19th cy.