How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

Visegrád 24 on Twitter: "BREAKING: ..." / Twitter

BREAKING:

The Ukrainian Army has entered Vovchansk.

It means that Ukraine is taking back all the territory up to the border in a new blitz-operation started earlier today.

The question is now whether to strike the Russian border city Belgorod.

The Ukrainian Army has started a new counteroffensive further to the north.

Martove, Gontarivka, Khotimlya, Zarichne and Artemivka have all been liberated.

It looks like the Ukrainian Army is moving toward Vovchansk and Velikiy Burluk.

Belgorod next?

Vovchansk is 36 mi / 58 km NE of Kharkiv, Velikiy Burluk 51 mi / 82 km E, a little east of the line between Vovchansk and Kupyansk, and the other places are closer to that line.

Visegrád 24 on Twitter: "The Russian flag flying over the Vovchansk Oil Extraction Plant has been taken down.
The Ukrainian Army is closing in on the Russian border near Belgorod. (vid link)" / Twitter

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Russian Defense Ministry has effectively acknowledged a retreat from Kharkiv calling it a “regrouping” of Russian troops from the Balakleya and Izyum areas for a “build-up” near Donetsk. The news has been reported by the Defense Ministry’s Telegram channel and the propagandist media.
Unwilling to acknowledge the loss of control over part of the occupied territories, the Russian Defense Ministry reports that for the last three days Russia has allegedly been conducting an operation on “redeployment in an organized manner of the Izyum-Balakleya grouping of troops” to the territory of the so-called DNR. But Russia's “successes” did not end there either: the army allegedly managed to carry out “a number of diversionary and demonstrative activities with the representation of real troop actions.”
In addition, Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov claims that during these three days “over two thousand Ukrainian and foreign fighters” and over “a hundred units of armored vehicles and artillery” have been destroyed.

But photos of the AFU from Balakleya and Kupyansk, as well as reports from pro-Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels, suggest otherwise. While Putin was busy celebrating the 875th anniversary of Moscow, strolling around Zaryadya and opening the Ferris wheel at VDNKh, the Ukrainian Armed Forces broke through enemy lines near Kharkiv. Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue their offensive in the Kharkiv direction, they have already taken the western part of the city of Kupyansk.

Reference

"Redeployment in an organized manner." Too funny. More like, "Run away!" "Run away!".

 

[Jayjay]

Kupyansk is the next prize, a critical hub for Russia's ground lines of communications to Izyum. Hopefully it will be secured over the weekend.

Ukraine doesn't actually need to take Kupyansk (yet), just surrounding it or even getting to artillery range is enough to render it useless as a supply route. I think the next target is to cut off and surround Izyum.

Well that prediction didn't last long. It seems that both Kupyansk and Izyum have been liberated. Ukraine is having trouble keeping up with the pace Russian troops are withdrawing.

You mean occupied... after russians left.

Only in the sense that Moscow and St. Petersburg are "occupied" by Russia.

Russian strategy is different from ukrainian, russian forces are averse to man power losses, for obvious reasons.

If Russia was averse to manpower losses, it shouldn't have invaded in the first place.

 

[Jayjay]

Kupyansk is the next prize, a critical hub for Russia's ground lines of communications to Izyum. Hopefully it will be secured over the weekend.

Ukraine doesn't actually need to take Kupyansk (yet), just surrounding it or even getting to artillery range is enough to render it useless as a supply route. I think the next target is to cut off and surround Izyum.

Well that prediction didn't last long. It seems that both Kupyansk and Izyum have been liberated. Ukraine is having trouble keeping up with the pace Russian troops are withdrawing.

You mean occupied... after russians left.
Russian strategy is different from ukrainian, russian forces are averse to man power losses, for obvious reasons.

Ahhh. Why don't Russian soldiers just leave all of Ukraine! Then no more war. No more Russian losses. We can go back to drinking vodka!

Russia did not start this war, NATO did.

It dosn't matter who started it. We're not 5-year kids here. But the war won't stop until Russian soldiers return home. Russia isn't under threat. Noone will invade a country with nukes. But Ukraine is. Return home; war ends. End of story.

Invasion is not the only bad thing that NATO does.
And in this particular case, you armed and supported a regime (you installed) which proclaimed territorial claims to Russia. And I am not talking about Crimea.

What territorial claims are you talking about?

And NATO didn't install any Ukrainian government, Putin is just pissed because Ukrainian people drove out his puppet after the said puppet ordered security forces to fire on crowds and kill hundreds of people.

 

[Jayjay]

Maybe if you stopped invading your neighbors that neighboring countries would be friendlier to Russia?

You first.

Do you think that invading other countries is good for your economy? Good for Russia? The difference between Russia and Nato: countries ask to join Nato; no-one wants to join with Russia.

Actually, Eastern Ukraine wants to join Russia. And Crimea too, wanted to join Russia and did so.

Maybe. But we don't know that because Putin didn't ask the people in Donbas or Crimea what they wanted before invading. Fake referendums at gunpoint prove nothing.

On the other hand, Ukraine did have a referendum in every region in 1991 whether they want to be independent or part of USSR (i.e. Russia). All regions, including Crimea and Sevastopol, overwhelmingly voted to be part of Ukraine.

The fact that some countries want to join NATO is irrelevant here.
They can want whatever they want. Russia will react to any threat.
And no, Ukraine did not want to join NATO. What happened was, you installed puppet regime and paid them to "want" to join NATO (remember Montenegro?)
These are the facts.

You're right: Ukraine indeed did not want to join NATO before Russia started occupying its lands and threatening war. And NATO didn't even want Ukraine. If Russia had done nothing in 2014, there was no real chance Ukraine was ever going to join NATO. Just like if Russia hadn't invaded in 2022 there would be no way Sweden and Finland would have applied for NATO membership.

That's why NATO is just a red herring. The real reason is that Ukraine refused to be a Russian puppet.

 

[Jayjay]

Intervention in the remains of Yugoslavia was to put an end to Serbian genocide

Really? You forgot about Monica Levinsky?
And there were no Serbian genocide, your own damn court admitted that.

This "your own damn X admitted it" bullshit that you keep repeating for almost every argument is getting old. You never actually link or back it up.

The genocide in Serbia was very real and nobody in their right mind is denying it.

Srebrenica massacre - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There were no WMD in Iraq either.

So? That has nothing to do with Ukraine, Russia, or even NATO.

Russia, on the the other hand, intervened to put an end to real genocide your nazi conducted in Eastern Ukraine.

What "genocide"? In 2021 the conflict had subsided to a trickle. More Donbas people probably died choking on chicken wings than in this imaginary "genocide" of yours.

 

[Jayjay]

I just watched western (not russian) commentary and apparently, the whole area which was abandoned has been a tactical disappointment ever since it was occupied. Russian forces just could not move further and were under constant threat of being cut off and encircled there. They now withdrew to more defendable position on other side of the river. So great political success for Elensky but militarily it has zero significance.
~2000 dead ukrainian soldiers in Kherson are still dead. Not to mention 200 tanks which are still "dead" as well.

You do realize that the "2000 dead" figure comes from Russian MoD, which is known to lie and exaggerate? Like the dozen or so times they said they destroyed HIMARS launchers, or how they repelled attacks on Snake Island... until satellite and drone footage showed that they didn't.

My rule of thumb is to divide any claim by Russian MoD by ten (and Ukrainian claims by two). In this case even 200 dead from Ukrainian side seems unlikely. As for tanks, Ukraine actually increased their number due to equipment left behind by Russia.

 

[Jayjay]

But the fundamental truth is that Russia invaded Ukraine. No spin there.

I don't disagree. But Russia did not start this war. It was started 8 years ago by Ukraine, against their own (at the time) people, they caused death of 14k people, "civilized" world did absolutely nothing to stop it.
And Russia is going to end this war, and if invasion is the solution so be it.

Barbos: I remember the above post. Well, it's been more than 6 months. Please tell me when Russia is going to end the war?

When it wins and liberate Ukraine from NATO occupation.

That's great, because then the objective is achieved and you can go home.

I remember USSR invaded Nazi Germany, you have a problem with that too?

And United States and UK gave material and intelligence support to USSR, just like they are now giving aid to Ukraine. You have a problem with that?

 

[Jayjay]

We have our own Baghdad Bob right here, performing the same task. Hilariously trying to defend a brutal dictator as things fall apart.

It's Kiev Bob. Ukrainian regime has said exactly nothing about Kherson fiasco.

It's not Kherson, it's "Croissant".

 

[bilby]

Russia will have negotiate to keep Crimea, if they are lucky.

Russia will nuke Kiev if necessary to keep Crimea.
No negotiations.
And again, recent retreat is not as significant as CNN says. In fact it's probably good thing for Russia and bad for Ukraine in the long run.

I predict that Russia will probably retain Crimea. But that it's soldiers will eventually evacuate to pre-Feb 28 positions. But Ukraine will once again cut off the water to Crimea. No land bridge. Just my prediction. But you'll have a heavily armed and angry Ukraine on your border; and a much stronger and united NATO; and no Nord stream.

I don't care about your predictions. Putin will do mobilization and nuke the Kiev if necessary but Russia is not going to lose this war with NATO.

My prediction is less drastic, Russia will freeze EU into submission. I mean, this seems to be the current plan.

You still has not answered my question.

Nuking Kyiv would be mass murder. Genocide. Do you think the world would accept that and go back to business as usual with Russia?

Well, the world accepted NATO shelling Russian Nuclear power plant. So we are slowly moving toward accepting unacceptable.

Shelling a VVER containment building is bloody stupid, but it's no more dangerous than shelling any industrial infrastructure.

Nuclear power plants cannot be turned into nuclear weapons; They certainly can't be turned into nuclear weapons by shelling them.

 

[lpetrich]

ZOKA on Twitter: "Russian population flee from Kharkov to Belgorod Regardless of military betrayal, they betrayed people who trusted them. (vid link)" / Twitter
and
ZOKA on Twitter: "In addition to all shame, people wait for two days at border. For some reason, they are not allowed to enter Russia (vid link)" / Twitter


Thomas van Linge on Twitter: "#Ukraine : the Ukrainian flag has been raised in the villages of Vasylenkova and Artemivka in the liberated territories of the #Kharkiv region. (pix link)" / Twitter


Dmitri on Twitter: "Governor of Luhansk Oblast Serhiy Haidai with a cryptic message: "Lysychnask, a great Ukrainian city. There will be a lot of reconstruction work..." (pic link)" / Twitter
Lysychansk.

Status-6 on Twitter: "Ukrainian military reached the outskirts of the city of Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast, the head of the Luhansk regional administration Serhiy Haidai told Suspilne. (pic link)" / Twitter
No further details.


Kateryna_Kruk on Twitter: "As of this morning, #Kupyansk is confirmed to be liberated and there is overwhelming amount of posts and insights in ru military publics about ru army fleeing #Izium and #Lyman almost in panic." / Twitter

Russo Ukranian War Updates on Twitter: "#Ukrainian forces are pressing on the southern front of #Lyman the northern city of #Donetsk. At the moment, theres no major advances that are reported but #Russian forces still hold the area. (pic link)i" / Twitter


I can't find any details on what's going on there, but given how fast Ukrainian forces have recently advanced, I would not be surprised if they have already gotten as far as Lysychansk and Lyman.

 

[bilby]

Russia will have negotiate to keep Crimea, if they are lucky.

Russia will nuke Kiev if necessary to keep Crimea.
No negotiations.
And again, recent retreat is not as significant as CNN says. In fact it's probably good thing for Russia and bad for Ukraine in the long run.

I predict that Russia will probably retain Crimea. But that it's soldiers will eventually evacuate to pre-Feb 28 positions. But Ukraine will once again cut off the water to Crimea. No land bridge. Just my prediction. But you'll have a heavily armed and angry Ukraine on your border; and a much stronger and united NATO; and no Nord stream.

I don't care about your predictions. Putin will do mobilization and nuke the Kiev if necessary but Russia is not going to lose this war with NATO.

My prediction is less drastic, Russia will freeze EU into submission. I mean, this seems to be the current plan.

You still has not answered my question.

Nuking Kyiv would be mass murder. Genocide. Do you think the world would accept that and go back to business as usual with Russia?

Well, the world accepted NATO shelling Russian Nuclear power plant. So we are slowly moving toward accepting unacceptable.

Oh gosh! This is getting embarrassing having to correct you. But the nuclear plant that is being bombed by someone is Zaporizhzhia. And it actually belongs to Ukraine. Your side temporarily took it over. But quite honestly, your guys aren't running it well. Dangerous situation. I'd recommend sticking with gas and oil. Managing nuclear power plants is much more complex.

Not really. Nuclear power plants are really simple technology. And shelling them isn't particularly more dangerous than shelling any industrial facilities; Certainly it's not more dangerous than shelling oil or gas infrastructure.

 

[lpetrich]

NEXTA on Twitter: "In the liberated #Balakliia, soldiers of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine remove a billboard with the flag of the #Russian Federation. (vid link)" / Twitter

Мы с Россией!
Один народ!

My s Rossiei!
Odin narod!

We are with Russia!
One people!

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I just watched western (not russian) commentary and apparently, the whole area which was abandoned has been a tactical disappointment ever since it was occupied. Russian forces just could not move further and were under constant threat of being cut off and encircled there. They now withdrew to more defendable position on other side of the river. So great political success for Elensky but militarily it has zero significance.

Careful there, amigo. You're getting close to admitting failure by Fearless Leader. Don't want to see you falling out of any windows.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It's very likely that Fearless Leader hoped that NATO countries would put their troops into the conflict. This may have been his plan all along. Much of their recent propaganda claims that this is indeed what is happening and accounts for Ukraine's military success.

So if Fearless Leader's strategic gamble wished to see western hordes on Ukrainian soil and that has not happened, what's next? What will Fearless Leader do? Perhaps this was going to be his red line that would allow him to use tactical nukes.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Not to love your Pooty
Is a big disgrace
So Heil! Heil!
Right in der Pooty' face

 

[Ford]

I just watched western (not russian) commentary and apparently, the whole area which was abandoned has been a tactical disappointment ever since it was occupied. Russian forces just could not move further and were under constant threat of being cut off and encircled there. They now withdrew to more defendable position on other side of the river. So great political success for Elensky but militarily it has zero significance.

Careful there, amigo. You're getting close to admitting failure by Fearless Leader. Don't want to see you falling out of any windows.

Yeah, that's a weird flex. Mighty Russian army can't move further into an abandoned area? Glorious Russian army are worried about being encircled by insignificant gnat of fake country Ukraine's weak terrorists?

And of course, why is Zelenskyy even still alive to have "great political success?" Thought he was at least supposed to have fled the smoking ruins of his capitol to rage impotently against glorious liberation of Ukraine from decadent western country. Or is Russia playing sleeping bear and will spring into action like bear in Russian winter? Maybe Putin is showing his well-documented mercy?

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine Battle Map on Twitter: "Ukrainian Forces control a part of Vovchansk but not the entire city
Several Settlements North of Kupyansk have been retaken and Ukrainian Forces have liberated at least 9 Large settlements 30-50km East of Kharkiv City " / Twitter

Ukraine Battle Map on Twitter: "Russian Military Aid to Ukraine
From September 7- September 10
-7,000 Soldiers (As Prisoners)
-457 Main Battle Tanks
-1,380 Armored Combat Vehicles
-54 Artillery Pieces with Ammo
-20 Air Defense Systems
-11 Special Equipment" / Twitter
Seems like a very rushed retreat when one has to leave behind so much military hardware and when a lot of soldiers couldn't get out.

C:\Paco\Crespo\Spain on Twitter: "@ukraine_map Where can all these abandoned vehicles be from? the video is from today (vid link)" / Twitter

NOËL on Twitter: "The road between Chkalovkse and Kupyansk shows how much suffered from the gigantic blitz attack that AFU performed on them. The road is filled with broken or captured material. (vid link)" / Twitter
Including a very smashed-up tank.


Slava Malamud on Twitter: "Russian teachers, brought en masse to Kupyansk and Izyum in order to eliminate all traces of Ukrainian identity from local children, have been arrested by Ukrainian forces. The Russian army abandoned them as it fled." / Twitter


Dr. Olga Onuch (Онух) on Twitter: "The de-occupation of Kharkiv oblast continues. Izyum is Ukraine! Shevchenkovo is Ukraine! Kupyansk is Ukraine! #ukrainecounteroffensive #UkraineWillWin (pix link)" / Twitter
With pictures of Ukrainian troops in or near all three towns.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukrainian Officials Drew on U.S. Intelligence to Plan Counteroffensive - The New York Times - "Overcoming a reluctance to share their strategy, the Ukrainians were able to use U.S. resources to identify key Russian targets."

Senior Ukrainian officials stepped up intelligence sharing with their American counterparts over the summer as they began to plan the counteroffensive that allowed them to make dramatic gains in the northeast in recent days, a shift that allowed the United States to provide better and more relevant information about Russian weaknesses, according to American officials.

Throughout the war, the United States has provided Ukraine with information on command posts, ammunition depots and other key nodes in the Russian military lines. Such real-time intelligence has allowed the Ukrainians — who U.S. officials acknowledge have played the decisive role in planning and execution — to target Russian forces, kill senior generals and force ammunition supplies to be moved farther from the Russian front lines.

But earlier on, American intelligence officials said they often had a better understanding of Russia’s military plans than of Ukraine’s. Concerned that sharing their operational plans could highlight weaknesses and discourage continued American support, the Ukrainians were closely guarding their operational plans even as American intelligence was gathering precise details on what the Kremlin was ordering and Russian commanders were planning.

Shows that Joe Biden has been *much* better than his predecessor. It's hard to imagine Donald Trump being as good with intelligence information as Joe Biden -- he might have leaked much of it to Vladimir Putin.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukrainian Officials Drew on U.S. Intelligence to Plan Counteroffensive - The New York Times - "Overcoming a reluctance to share their strategy, the Ukrainians were able to use U.S. resources to identify key Russian targets."

Senior Ukrainian officials stepped up intelligence sharing with their American counterparts over the summer as they began to plan the counteroffensive that allowed them to make dramatic gains in the northeast in recent days, a shift that allowed the United States to provide better and more relevant information about Russian weaknesses, according to American officials.

Throughout the war, the United States has provided Ukraine with information on command posts, ammunition depots and other key nodes in the Russian military lines. Such real-time intelligence has allowed the Ukrainians — who U.S. officials acknowledge have played the decisive role in planning and execution — to target Russian forces, kill senior generals and force ammunition supplies to be moved farther from the Russian front lines.

But earlier on, American intelligence officials said they often had a better understanding of Russia’s military plans than of Ukraine’s. Concerned that sharing their operational plans could highlight weaknesses and discourage continued American support, the Ukrainians were closely guarding their operational plans even as American intelligence was gathering precise details on what the Kremlin was ordering and Russian commanders were planning.

Shows that Joe Biden has been *much* better than his predecessor. It's hard to imagine Donald Trump being as good with intelligence information as Joe Biden -- he might have leaked much of it to Vladimir Putin.

This also shows that cooperation works better than isolation.