How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

What has transpired in the last few days is beyond even my wildest imagination. I assumed that if Ukraine had learned new tricks, it would use them in Donetsk or Kherson first. Some thoughts:

The Russian advances near bakhmut and Donetsk city still continue. The withdrawal of troops from Kharkiv won't have an immediate impact.

Losing Izyum and Lyman means Russia is basically giving up on northern Donetsk oblast. A few months ago, after Severodonetsk and Lysychansk fell, it looked like Russia was going to try a pincer from north to Sloviansk, and from south to Bakhmut. But it seems like they gave up on that plan in favor of advancing west from Donetsk. Maybe because of political pressure from Putin? But now the pincer has lost its other ... pince? pincer? pincet? ... and reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk is going to be very hard, if not impossible for Russia.

Another thing that will cause headache for Russia is that now the railway hubs in the north-east, which makes logistics from Belgorod to Donbas harder. They have to take a longer route through Russian territory which could be costly.

I think the main thing about this victory is for morale. Both positively for Ukraine, that has finally a huge win, and has shown that it can fight back, not just slow down the enemy. And the opposite for Russia. The Russian generals and Putin's cadre must be scared shitless of the same thing happening in Kherson, Zhaporizhia, or Donetsk. For the first time, it looks like they might actually lose the war.

EDIT: I think Russia will have to respond somehow. Either by escalating with mobilization, nuclear "accident" in ZNPP, etc., or by scaling down their goals and setting up a defensible front line. It would be strategically sound to withdraw from Kherson city to left bank of Dnipro, but that would mean giving up on Odessa, which is politically difficult.

 

[Jayjay]

A bizarre call to Ukrainian "surrender hotline". Sounds a bit fake, with the cutting of balls part, but it's all for fun...



I read somewhere that Ukraine has started using MLRS to drop leaflets in Donetsk area, so it's possible that there is a campaign to get Russians to surrender in wake of their defeat in Kharkiv.

 

[marc]

Drone footage of Russian.. um... redeployment efforts? Yea, lets go with that.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Who is Fearless Leader appoint to smite Ukraine Nazi horde? Great Putin wear cape like Superman. Now fly, save Russia from horde.

[Sorry. Couldn't help myself.]

I saw a video which suggests Ukraine is attacking north in order to enter Russia, then turn south along the border eventually heading into Crimea from the east. Not gonna happen but still quite entertaining.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

There is no way, long term, Russia will be able to stay in Ukraine

Russia has had Crimea since 2014 without disturbance. It should be able to keep the Russian majority areas of eastern Ukraine.

Fixed it. Just because the issues weren't page 1 news doesn't mean it was without disturbance. Low grade conflict was going on.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Reports are coming in the Russia is beginning to learn their lessons. Roaring in with tanks and no infantry support does not work. But they still have isues with low quality infantry. Using elite troops as a spearhead has merely resulted in their slaughter. Raining destruction to destroy Ukraine's willingness to fight does not work. But they have little else.

Infantry could protect tanks from unguided weapons but it can't protect them from stuff like the Javelin because they would have to be so far out that there's not much point in having the tank back there in the first place. As it stands in an area with good cover there's no real counter to the Javelin.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Why would a general prance around in front lines, "disguised" as a colonel? And the people don't even look like each other. Look at the nose, ear, the (missing) birth mark on the cheek, eyebrows.

Quite possible--he wanted to see what conditions really were because he didn't trust the reporting. And disguising himself as being of much lower rank would be a reasonable safety precaution.

I'm not saying that's what happened, I'm simply saying it's not an unreasonable scenario.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

But as the climate warms, these areas are becoming summer time swamps.

Damn you! I misparsed that and was trying to think of what time swamps are!

 

[Loren Pechtel]

You do realize that the "2000 dead" figure comes from Russian MoD, which is known to lie and exaggerate? Like the dozen or so times they said they destroyed HIMARS launchers, or how they repelled attacks on Snake Island... until satellite and drone footage showed that they didn't.

They probably thought they did destroy HIMARS launchers--rack that one up to fog of war. They were doing a good job of sending cruise missiles against decoys and of course nobody is going to admit that the strike went in against a decoy.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Shelling a VVER containment building is bloody stupid, but it's no more dangerous than shelling any industrial infrastructure.

Nuclear power plants cannot be turned into nuclear weapons; They certainly can't be turned into nuclear weapons by shelling them.

But you can Fukushima them.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What has transpired in the last few days is beyond even my wildest imagination. I assumed that if Ukraine had learned new tricks, it would use them in Donetsk or Kherson first.

I don't think this is a case of new tricks. Rather, it's the result of cutting the bridges and impeding the supplies. They apparently judged that the Russian forces that were across the river couldn't hold and they swept them up because they couldn't retreat fast enough--and the troops would be using whatever fuel they had to get themselves out rather than to get their equipment out, especially as that equipment wasn't going to be able to cross the river anyway.

 

[bilby]

Shelling a VVER containment building is bloody stupid, but it's no more dangerous than shelling any industrial infrastructure.

Nuclear power plants cannot be turned into nuclear weapons; They certainly can't be turned into nuclear weapons by shelling them.

But you can Fukushima them.

What, cause sufficient damage to shut them down permanently, without injuring or killing anyone not on site at the time?

Yes, you can certainly do that. That's exactly what I was saying.

Blowing up expensive industrial facilities isn't a novelty in wartime, no matter how dumb it might be to do it.

There's exactly nothing about a VVER that makes it different from other industrial plants, from a public safety perspective. Including in terms of the damage that ensues if it's subjected to artillery (or aerial) bombardment.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

We have our own Baghdad Bob right here, performing the same task. Hilariously trying to defend a brutal dictator as things fall apart.

It's Kiev Bob. Ukrainian regime has said exactly nothing about Kherson fiasco.

It's not Kherson, it's "Croissant".

It is Kyiv, not Kiev. Pronounced Woostershear.

 

[TV and credit cards]

So I guess over the last few days, the Russian Ministry of Defense has had precious few tidbits of positive news to spin into proud Russian military victories. They’ve been somewhat silent leaving an informational vacuum to be filled by the milbloggers who normally take their cues from the MoD to help shape the propagandistic narrative for general public consumption. And in this vacuum, these milbloggers have defaulted to their human factory settings of reporting something akin to the truth. This has left the state controlled media propagandist to fend for themselves as to what horseshit to put out to the public. This has created a confusing assortment of lies and half-truths being broadcast to the public. Short and sweet, they don’t know whether to shit or go blind and may be loosing control of public opinion.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Why is this so important to your side? Why not just man up: attack, loot and rampage; get your wiggles out; then return to your country when it the rampaging isn't as much fun?

As discussed above, Russia's main asset is gas&oil, and it's running out. Ukraine's main asset is the ability to produce billions of tons of food.
Pootey can't tell his peeps to go home to no food, and they can't eat oil...

It's just very interesting to me that Barbos is adamant that NATO started this war (forget the fact that its wrong!). I actually read several different Russian blogging sites; and this a common theme: the world is picking on us, we are being bullied, we are the victim, why are people being so mean to us and hostile, and etc. But regardless, you are right. Gas and Oil is Russia's biggest asset by far. And they have tons of it. Enough to fuel Europe for a generation. And they have geared their entire economy around it. And yet, Europe is transiting away from fossils. By far the best thing the world can do to stop Russian imperialism is to get off gas/oil.

 

[Elixir]

I

Gas and Oil is Russia's biggest asset by far. And they have tons of it. Enough to fuel Europe for a generation.

Their reserves are much bigger than their ability to access them. To supply Europe for a generation would require a huge investment, and day by day their ability to make such an investment becomes more and more impaired.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Why is this so important to your side? Why not just man up: attack, loot and rampage; get your wiggles out; then return to your country when it the rampaging isn't as much fun?

As discussed above, Russia's main asset is gas&oil, and it's running out. Ukraine's main asset is the ability to produce billions of tons of food.
Pootey can't tell his peeps to go home to no food, and they can't eat oil...

It's just very interesting to me that Barbos is adamant that NATO started this war (forget the fact that its wrong!). I actually read several different Russian blogging sites; and this a common theme: the world is picking on us, we are being bullied, we are the victim, why are people being so mean to us and hostile, and etc. But regardless, you are right. Gas and Oil is Russia's biggest asset by far. And they have tons of it. Enough to fuel Europe for a generation. And they have geared their entire economy around it. And yet, Europe is transiting away from fossils. By far the best thing the world can do to stop Russian imperialism is to get off gas/oil.

If you keep up with state propaganda it isn't difficult to see where barbos is getting his information. I hear it on propaganda and it's as if barbos is a bot. It's actually startling how identical are all the false claims, denial and misinformation.

 

[Elixir]

It's actually startling how identical are all the false claims, denial and misinformation.

How so? The menu of acceptable tropes and retorts is updated weekly if not daily. Failure to follow form could be very dicey, or even dangerous. Lately, there is a halfhearted tone of resignation to barbos' parroting. I find that more revealing than even the more credible reports from the field.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Why is this so important to your side? Why not just man up: attack, loot and rampage; get your wiggles out; then return to your country when it the rampaging isn't as much fun?

As discussed above, Russia's main asset is gas&oil, and it's running out. Ukraine's main asset is the ability to produce billions of tons of food.
Pootey can't tell his peeps to go home to no food, and they can't eat oil...

It's just very interesting to me that Barbos is adamant that NATO started this war (forget the fact that its wrong!). I actually read several different Russian blogging sites; and this a common theme: the world is picking on us, we are being bullied, we are the victim, why are people being so mean to us and hostile, and etc. But regardless, you are right. Gas and Oil is Russia's biggest asset by far. And they have tons of it. Enough to fuel Europe for a generation. And they have geared their entire economy around it. And yet, Europe is transiting away from fossils. By far the best thing the world can do to stop Russian imperialism is to get off gas/oil.

If you keep up with state propaganda it isn't difficult to see where barbos is getting his information. I hear it on propaganda and it's as if barbos is a bot. It's actually startling how identical are all the false claims, denial and misinformation.

Yea, have to say that I'm disappointed that Barbos has so much confidence in the accuracy of the Russian media that he has access to. I'm very suspicious of just about everything that I hear or see. I think that if he put some rational thought in it, he should easily see that believing that only 2,000 troops have died in a brutal 6-month trench like warfare is just crazy. But this isn't anything new. There are many q-Americans who believe all the Trump BS with access to far more information than Barbos.

 

[Jayjay]

What has transpired in the last few days is beyond even my wildest imagination. I assumed that if Ukraine had learned new tricks, it would use them in Donetsk or Kherson first.

I don't think this is a case of new tricks. Rather, it's the result of cutting the bridges and impeding the supplies. They apparently judged that the Russian forces that were across the river couldn't hold and they swept them up because they couldn't retreat fast enough--and the troops would be using whatever fuel they had to get themselves out rather than to get their equipment out, especially as that equipment wasn't going to be able to cross the river anyway.

The new trick was the ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations. It's about having solid basics: training of troops, competent leadership, APCs and tanks. So far Ukraine has had trouble with that, and still is in other front: the counter-offensive in Kherson (which was partially a feint) had relatively high casualties compared to the land recovered. I think that's because the Kherson front didn't have the best troops or officers.

Bridges weren't that big of a deal in the beginning of the Kharkiv offensive, because there were multiple rail roads from Belgorod. But Russia had shortage of manpower, so the Kharkiv front was just held up by forced conscripts, national guard, and other inferior troops. In essence, Ukraine's best against Russia's worst. And when the front line was breached, there was no second line prepared behind it.