How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[DrZoidberg]

Ruski Hitler only admitted that your lobbing them at me is an act of terrorism. My lobbing them at you is defending myself from Nazis.

Biden is Hitler, albeit senile.

Biden is one of the worst leaders morally in the history of the world ever... but he has no conscious idea what he is doing.

Yeah... that is a nonsensical accusation there.

So over 10,000 posts, well past a year... still at a quasi-stalemate as the Russian ground forces can't make headway... still. Plan A failed (shock and yawn), Plan B failed (lets try the east), Plan C isn't doing much better (let's throw mercs at the problem). Russia's problem is they don't seem to actually have a plan at this point other than wait until Ukraine gives up. Typically surrendering requires some sort of checkmate being involved. And Putin/Russian military seem to be playing tiddly winks.

You're allowing yourself to be seduced by the metaphor you are using. Namely one from war games/chess. That's not how real wars work. Wars don't end just because an enemy is militarily defeated. It takes way more.

"No plan survives contact with the enemy"
/Helmuth von Moltke

Wars never go according to plan. Never. Wars are by their nature complex and messy. Always. The winning recipe is often tenacity. Be prepared to sacrifice more than your enemy. Everybody has a breaking point where they give up. Ukraine is fighting for their homes. So they will never give up as long as there's men of fighting age alive. Putin doesn't give a rats ass about Russian (or Ukrainian) lives, so won't be deterred by the suffering of people. Any people.

Wars typically end when one side suddenly just folds completely and collapses. There's a build up of internal political pressure that erupts. An internal political conflict that there's been a lid on. But as the civic power weakens, as more resources are transferred to the army, those internal conflicts cannot be contained any more, and it all just falls apart. Usually, the social mechanic that brings the regime down is a n utter surprise to that same regime.

Example. In WWI the Turkish army was utterly obliterated. They had no functional army. There was nothing to stop Russia who were rapidly advancing accross Anatolia. Wealthy Turks fled across the straights to Istanbul. Then the Russian advance suddenly stops, then rapidly retreats back to Russia, and then the war was over. Turkey wins. The Russian revolution had put a stop to the war. Nobody saw that comming. Nobody. Certainly not the communist insurgents of Russia. This is typically how wars end.

The Ukraine war is a proxy war. In reality this is NATO fighting Russia, in a continuation of the Cold War. It seems like the last 30 years was just a temporary lul in the action. Now it's back to business as usual. Which sucks. NATO consists of the richest countries in the world. They're not going to run out of money. Hence Ukraine isn't going to run out of weapons. So that's not what's going to break Ukraine. I think Putin is in a shitty position right now. This could end in a number of ways, but I suspect that the only viable option is that Putin is given something so he can spin this to a win. I think he personally needs to be bought out of this war somehow. NATO is rich. It can happen.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Because most of us realize that his invasion of Iraq was quite as evil as Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

Tom

Barbos thinks Putin's invasion of Ukraine wasn't evil at all. In fact he seems to buy into the narrative that it wasn't an invasion, either. Just a "special military operation" where Russian troops "rescued" a breakaway province that had become infested with "Nazis."

I have said it before, but I don't think Barbos himself believes the thing he writes here. I don't see how it's possible. He's just parroting the propaganda line, of a regime nobody trusts. Nobody. Certainly not the Russians. These guys used to live in a communist totalitarian dictatorship. I think they have above average degrees of cynicism. I think Russians are less likely, than westerners, to believe what the Putin regime tells them. Not more. This makes me wonder why Barbos is saying the things he is.

I somehow doubt we'll ever learn the truth of this.

 

[bilby]

This could end in a number of ways, but I suspect that the only viable option is that Putin is given something so he can spin this to a win. I think he personally needs to be bought out of this war somehow. NATO is rich. It can happen.

Or he could die.

There are lots of windows in Moscow.

 

[DrZoidberg]

This could end in a number of ways, but I suspect that the only viable option is that Putin is given something so he can spin this to a win. I think he personally needs to be bought out of this war somehow. NATO is rich. It can happen.

Or he could die.

There are lots of windows in Moscow.

Based on the Russians I've talked to, I think Putin is popular in Russia. So I think Putin is pretty safe from any angry windows he might be passing

 

[bilby]

This could end in a number of ways, but I suspect that the only viable option is that Putin is given something so he can spin this to a win. I think he personally needs to be bought out of this war somehow. NATO is rich. It can happen.

Or he could die.

There are lots of windows in Moscow.

Based on the Russians I've talked to, I think Putin is popular in Russia. So I think Putin is pretty safe from any angry windows he might be passing

JFK was popular in the US. That didn't protect him from assassination.

 

[DrZoidberg]

This could end in a number of ways, but I suspect that the only viable option is that Putin is given something so he can spin this to a win. I think he personally needs to be bought out of this war somehow. NATO is rich. It can happen.

Or he could die.

There are lots of windows in Moscow.

Based on the Russians I've talked to, I think Putin is popular in Russia. So I think Putin is pretty safe from any angry windows he might be passing

JFK was popular in the US. That didn't protect him from assassination.

His assassination changed nothing. USA kept on the same foreign policies etc

 

[Patooka]

His assassination changed nothing. USA kept on the same foreign policies etc

I'm pretty certain Bilby's point was your assertion that popularity (or lack thereof) isn't that much of a deciding factor in political assassinations. Putin popularity notwithstanding, there's a non zero chance Russian oligarchs will get fed up with all their assets being seized overseas and force Putin to become intimately involved with a concrete pavement. And seeing as we are talking about Russia, "will of the people" has never been a thing there.

 

[DrZoidberg]

His assassination changed nothing. USA kept on the same foreign policies etc

I'm pretty certain Bilby's point was your assertion that popularity (or lack thereof) isn't that much of a deciding factor in political assassinations. Putin popularity notwithstanding, there's a non zero chance Russian oligarchs will get fed up with all their assets being seized overseas and force Putin to become intimately involved with a concrete pavement. And seeing as we are talking about Russia, "will of the people" has never been a thing there.

So Putin dying will solve or change nothing for Ukraine?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Bush invaded Iraq based on lies and false claims and got away with it. Not any different from Putin, really.

Seriously???
Bush did not raise the American flag over Iraq, attempt to absorb Iraq’s land and call it America’s rightful territory, attempt to exterminate the Iraqi people, claim Iraqi resources for the USA, or direct a campaign of genocidal terror. Just for starters… I think those differences are significant.

Yea. Totally fucking agree. Putler is 10 times worse than Bush. I'm not going to defend Bush's Iraq invasion. I was dead set against. It was a tragedy. But Putler crimes are 10 times worse. Putler deliberately targets civilians. His troops are encouraged to rape and loot and destroy areas that they conquer. Entire cities are leveled and destroyed. Any country that tries to help Ukraine defend itself is threatened by Putler with Nuclear war. Putler continuously uses UN banned weapons to inflect damage on Ukranians. The Russians have kidnapped 20,000 Ukranian children! Where is the outrage over this? The Russians have made a mockery of the UN rules. Putler is an order of magnitude far worse that Bush.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I have said it before, but I don't think Barbos himself believes the thing he writes here. I don't see how it's possible. He's just parroting the propaganda line, of a regime nobody trusts. Nobody. Certainly not the Russians. These guys used to live in a communist totalitarian dictatorship. I think they have above average degrees of cynicism. I think Russians are less likely, than westerners, to believe what the Putin regime tells them. Not more. This makes me wonder why Barbos is saying the things he is.

I somehow doubt we'll ever learn the truth of this.

That strikes me as an intellectual waste of time. We can suppose that 90% of the Russian population is apathetic about Ukraine. But if they are supporting it outwardly Ukraine must respond in kind, which is exactly what is happening.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I have said it before, but I don't think Barbos himself believes the thing he writes here. I don't see how it's possible. He's just parroting the propaganda line, of a regime nobody trusts. Nobody. Certainly not the Russians. These guys used to live in a communist totalitarian dictatorship. I think they have above average degrees of cynicism. I think Russians are less likely, than westerners, to believe what the Putin regime tells them. Not more. This makes me wonder why Barbos is saying the things he is.

I somehow doubt we'll ever learn the truth of this.

That strikes me as an intellectual waste of time. We can suppose that 90% of the Russian population is apathetic about Ukraine. But if they are supporting it outwardly Ukraine must respond in kind, which is exactly what is happening.

I have read that in normal times the Russian propaganda style is to allow conflicting stories to run in the media in an effort to confuse and exhaust the people with the goal being a general disinterest in what the government is doing.
Perhaps barbos is what happens when one doesn't look away.

 

[bilby]

This could end in a number of ways, but I suspect that the only viable option is that Putin is given something so he can spin this to a win. I think he personally needs to be bought out of this war somehow. NATO is rich. It can happen.

Or he could die.

There are lots of windows in Moscow.

Based on the Russians I've talked to, I think Putin is popular in Russia. So I think Putin is pretty safe from any angry windows he might be passing

JFK was popular in the US. That didn't protect him from assassination.

His assassination changed nothing. USA kept on the same foreign policies etc

Perhaps, but the same may not be true of Putin. As a wise man once said:

I think he personally needs to be bought out of this war somehow.

 

[TomC]

I have read that in normal times the Russian propaganda style is to allow conflicting stories to run in the media in an effort to confuse and exhaust the people with the goal being a general disinterest in what the government is doing.
Perhaps barbos is what happens when one doesn't look away.

That sounds a lot like American media tbh.
Tom

 

[Elixir]

I have read that in normal times the Russian propaganda style is to allow conflicting stories to run in the media in an effort to confuse and exhaust the people with the goal being a general disinterest in what the government is doing.
Perhaps barbos is what happens when one doesn't look away.

That sounds a lot like American media tbh.
Tom

Only if you include OAN, FOX and NewsMax.

 

[TomC]

I have read that in normal times the Russian propaganda style is to allow conflicting stories to run in the media in an effort to confuse and exhaust the people with the goal being a general disinterest in what the government is doing.
Perhaps barbos is what happens when one doesn't look away.

That sounds a lot like American media tbh.
Tom

Only if you include OAN, FOX and NewsMax.

I do.

Last I knew, Fox was the most mainstream media in this country.

Fact remains, I see American media as a whole as a welter of claims and propoganda designed to keep American people in the dark.
Like Russian media.
Tom

 

[Rhea]

Last I knew, Fox was the most mainstream media in this country.

What? How do you figure? They have merely a fraction of the viewership of ABC, CBS and NBC.

Fox contantly crows about being the “Most Watched cable News Station” hoping that no one notices the little “cable” in there.

They are not mainstream, and they are certainly not the “most mainstream.”

 

[TomC]

What? How do you figure?

Fox has the biggest viewership of broadcast media.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think mainstream media is all that important anymore. Social media, like FB and Twitter and and whatever are more important in shaping the American socio-political landscape. Mainstream media isn't that important anymore, for the same reasons that newspaper and magazine isn't important anymore.
Tom

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Last I knew, Fox was the most mainstream media in this country.

What? How do you figure? They have merely a fraction of the viewership of ABC, CBS and NBC.

Fox contantly crows about being the “Most Watched cable News Station” hoping that no one notices the little “cable” in there.

They are not mainstream, and they are certainly not the “most mainstream.”

Fox comes free with most cable subscriptions. MSNBC costs extra. As do some other cable outlets. CNN is busily destroying itself. A year ago, sitting in hospital bed, their cable TV offerings were grim. Faux Noise was there but not much else News Cable.

 

[Rhea]

What? How do you figure?

Fox has the biggest viewership of broadcast media.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think mainstream media is all that important anymore. Social media, like FB and Twitter and and whatever are more important in shaping the American socio-political landscape. Mainstream media isn't that important anymore, for the same reasons that newspaper and magazine isn't important anymore.
Tom

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

If more people watch FAUX than any other channel then more people watch channels other than FAUX. Lotsa viewers don't think very deeply about such things.