How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

The Russians are being told by their government that Ukraine is now sufficiently demilitarized and Russia is safe from all the Nazis. Good stuff. Sounds like an attempt at softening a hard landing, or should I say crash landing.

Putin is hoping to freeze the boundaries in place, at least until Russia can rebuild its military for a renewed invasion. So he would be fine if the Ukrainians would just stop trying to reclaim territory that was illegally seized from them. As for all of the dead and injured Ukrainians and the ruined infrastructure, they should just let bygones be bygones. Until the next invasion, of course. Russia won't stand for Ukraine becoming a NATO country and blocking the possibility of finishing the job that Putin started.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The Russians are being told by their government that Ukraine is now sufficiently demilitarized and Russia is safe from all the Nazis. Good stuff. Sounds like an attempt at softening a hard landing, or should I say crash landing.

Putin is hoping to freeze the boundaries in place, at least until Russia can rebuild its military for a renewed invasion. So he would be fine if the Ukrainians would just stop trying to reclaim territory that was illegally seized from them. As for all of the dead and injured Ukrainians and the ruined infrastructure, they should just let bygones be bygones. Until the next invasion, of course. Russia won't stand for Ukraine becoming a NATO country and blocking the possibility of finishing the job that Putin started.

The irresistible force and the immovable object? In the end Putin is fucked, and Putin knows it. He simply cannot match NATO. This conflict isn't about Russia vs NATO. It's Putin vs NATO. Ukraine is where Putin decided that NATO had gone far enough. That's the conflict in a nutshell but Putin can only delay, he cannot stop countries from becoming NATO members.

 

[bilby]

The Russians are being told by their government that Ukraine is now sufficiently demilitarized and Russia is safe from all the Nazis. Good stuff. Sounds like an attempt at softening a hard landing, or should I say crash landing.

Putin is hoping to freeze the boundaries in place, at least until Russia can rebuild its military for a renewed invasion. So he would be fine if the Ukrainians would just stop trying to reclaim territory that was illegally seized from them. As for all of the dead and injured Ukrainians and the ruined infrastructure, they should just let bygones be bygones. Until the next invasion, of course. Russia won't stand for Ukraine becoming a NATO country and blocking the possibility of finishing the job that Putin started.

The irresistible force and the immovable object? In the end Putin is fucked, and Putin knows it. He simply cannot match NATO. This conflict isn't about Russia vs NATO. It's Putin vs NATO. Ukraine is where Putin decided that NATO had gone far enough. That's the conflict in a nutshell but Putin can only delay, he cannot stop countries from becoming NATO members.

Perhaps NATO should dig out the paperwork from the 1954 Berlin Conference, and grant membership to the USSR as requested at that event.

Obviously, as the USSR no longer exists, this would be in the form of NATO membership for any former Soviet republic that wants it...

 

[Patooka]

The Russians are being told by their government that Ukraine is now sufficiently demilitarized and Russia is safe from all the Nazis. Good stuff. Sounds like an attempt at softening a hard landing, or should I say crash landing.

Mission Accomplished!



Yeah, I know. My photoshop skills are dogshit.

 

[TomC]

The Russians are being told by their government that Ukraine is now sufficiently demilitarized and Russia is safe from all the Nazis. Good stuff. Sounds like an attempt at softening a hard landing, or should I say crash landing.

Mission Accomplished!

View attachment 43543

Yeah, I know. My photoshop skills are dogshit.

Dayum.
That shouldn't be funny.

But as a gay nontheist who is far too ProLifer to support Bush II's invasion

What can I do?
Tom

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The irresistible force and the immovable object? In the end Putin is fucked, and Putin knows it. He simply cannot match NATO. This conflict isn't about Russia vs NATO. It's Putin vs NATO. Ukraine is where Putin decided that NATO had gone far enough. That's the conflict in a nutshell but Putin can only delay, he cannot stop countries from becoming NATO members.

Disagree--it's not that he decided to draw a line there, but that he decided to try to retake part of the old Soviet Union that had been lost. The world didn't react too badly when he took a bite in 2014--but that was a major wake-up for Ukraine, they got their act together and the advanced countries of the world saw a case where there was a clear good guy and there was a way to safely and effectively intervene. The last time this happened was when we armed Russia against Germany and we were actually involved in that war.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Disagree--it's not that he decided to draw a line there, but that he decided to try to retake part of the old Soviet Union that had been lost.

But the reason he did that is because so many of those Warsaw pact countries are now NATO members. A gangster like Putin doesn't want free democratic states near his turf. Putin isn't a megalomaniac, he's just a greedy thief using whatever means he can to enrich himself. He cares as much about Russia as the fat dictator cares about North Korea. It's just his turf and he doesn't want it being influenced by things on the border. His expressed desire to restore the Russian empire is propaganda. The only thing he fears is accountability.

 

[Jayjay]

Disagree--it's not that he decided to draw a line there, but that he decided to try to retake part of the old Soviet Union that had been lost.

But the reason he did that is because so many of those Warsaw pact countries are now NATO members. A gangster like Putin doesn't want free democratic states near his turf. Putin isn't a megalomaniac, he's just a greedy thief using whatever means he can to enrich himself. He cares as much about Russia as the fat dictator cares about North Korea. It's just his turf and he doesn't want it being influenced by things on the border. His expressed desire to restore the Russian empire is propaganda. The only thing he fears is accountability.

Why can't it be both?

 

[Jayjay]

ISW says Ukraine is taking a break:

Ukrainian forces may be temporarily pausing counteroffensive operations to reevaluate their tactics for future operations. Head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Colonel Margo Grosberg stated on June 16 that he assesses "we won't see an offensive over the next seven days.” The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on June 17 that Ukrainian forces “have mostly paused their advances in recent days” as Ukrainian command reexamines tactics. These reports are consistent with ISW’s recent observations of the scale and approach of localized Ukrainian counterattacks in southern and eastern Ukraine. ISW has previously noted that Ukraine has not yet committed the majority of its available forces to counteroffensive operations and has not yet launched its main effort. Operational pauses are a common feature of major offensive undertakings, and this pause does not signify the end of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

(EDIT: removed part about Russia advancing, as the tweet was removed and may have been bullshit.)

Ukraine might be waiting for more aid to come through before going on the offensive again, but Russia isn't just rest on its laurels either, and will continue to fortify the already fortified positions. I stumbled into this article that lists a lot of the problems that Ukraine still has with its training regime:

What the Ukrainian Armed Forces Need to Do to Win - War on the Rocks

Our instructors were training a Ukrainian national guard unit near the Moldovan border. When we arrived at the range, a Ukrainian unit was already on the

warontherocks.com

Main problems are lack of ability to conduct combined arms operation, and the remnants of the rigid soviet style leadership.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Disagree--it's not that he decided to draw a line there, but that he decided to try to retake part of the old Soviet Union that had been lost.

But the reason he did that is because so many of those Warsaw pact countries are now NATO members. A gangster like Putin doesn't want free democratic states near his turf. Putin isn't a megalomaniac, he's just a greedy thief using whatever means he can to enrich himself. He cares as much about Russia as the fat dictator cares about North Korea. It's just his turf and he doesn't want it being influenced by things on the border. His expressed desire to restore the Russian empire is propaganda. The only thing he fears is accountability.

Why can't it be both?

To believe it's both is to score a win for Putin propaganda. He's definitely using propaganda about NATO to enrich himself at the expense of Russia. This is standard stuff. Russia has nothing to fear from NATO and the freedoms and laws that define their societies. Putin fears this and uses propaganda to protect himself from Free countries and from those within Russia that would have his head.

 

[Jayjay]

Disagree--it's not that he decided to draw a line there, but that he decided to try to retake part of the old Soviet Union that had been lost.

But the reason he did that is because so many of those Warsaw pact countries are now NATO members. A gangster like Putin doesn't want free democratic states near his turf. Putin isn't a megalomaniac, he's just a greedy thief using whatever means he can to enrich himself. He cares as much about Russia as the fat dictator cares about North Korea. It's just his turf and he doesn't want it being influenced by things on the border. His expressed desire to restore the Russian empire is propaganda. The only thing he fears is accountability.

Why can't it be both?

To believe it's both is to score a win for Putin propaganda. He's definitely using propaganda about NATO to enrich himself at the expense of Russia. This is standard stuff. Russia has nothing to fear from NATO and the freedoms and laws that define their societies. Putin fears this and uses propaganda to protect himself from Free countries and from those within Russia that would have his head.

If Putin only wanted to enrich himself, he wouldn't be invading his neighbors and subject his country to economic sanctions. I think he truly believes that he is the saviour of Russia, even if it means cracking a few skulls. And obviously, NATO is a threat to Russia's geopolitical expansion, not its economic expansion.

Putin being worried about a democratic popular uprising, that's a given. Every autocrat's first priority is to stay in power, and the secondary goal might be money, power, or delusions of imperial grandeur. Or all of them.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

If Putin only wanted to enrich himself, he wouldn't be invading his neighbors and subject his country to economic sanctions. I think he truly believes that he is the saviour of Russia, even if it means cracking a few skulls. And obviously, NATO is a threat to Russia's geopolitical expansion, not its economic expansion.

Putin being worried about a democratic popular uprising, that's a given. Every autocrat's first priority is to stay in power, and the secondary goal might be money, power, or delusions of imperial grandeur. Or all of them.

Careful the kool-aid you drink. NATO is a threat to Russia like France is a threat to Denmark. Russia becoming a NATO member and sending Putin to Ukraine would be the best thing that ever happened to "Russia" and the worst thing that ever happened to Putin.

 

[Jayjay]

If Putin only wanted to enrich himself, he wouldn't be invading his neighbors and subject his country to economic sanctions. I think he truly believes that he is the saviour of Russia, even if it means cracking a few skulls. And obviously, NATO is a threat to Russia's geopolitical expansion, not its economic expansion.

Putin being worried about a democratic popular uprising, that's a given. Every autocrat's first priority is to stay in power, and the secondary goal might be money, power, or delusions of imperial grandeur. Or all of them.

Careful the kool-aid you drink. NATO is a threat to Russia like France is a threat to Denmark. Russia becoming a NATO member and sending Putin to Ukraine would be the best thing that ever happened to "Russia" and the worst thing that ever happened to Putin.

If that wasn't a typo, I don't know what "Russia becoming a NATO member and sending Putin to Ukraine" means.

NATO is clearly not a threat to Russia, but it is a threat against Russia being able to attack its weaker neighbors with impunity.

 

[Elixir]

NATO is clearly not a threat to Russia, but it is a threat against Russia being able to attack its weaker neighbors with impunity.

Attacking its weaker neighbors IS Russia. That’s who they are, it’s what they do. Opposing their ability to do that IS a threat.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I don't know what "Russia becoming a NATO member and sending Putin to Ukraine" means.

Clearly the kool-aid talking.

Russia as a people could care less about NATO and would gladly welcome membership under those same principles and laws that all its members abide by. Do you really disagree with this? It's not the Russian people that want to expand and take over sovereign states. Sure they want economic opportunity and personal gain. Who doesn't? Putin is the Al Capone of Russia. He doesn't live by the same laws he imposes on Russia. He would gladly sacrifice every life in Russia for personal enrichment and gain. I don't know what could be more obvious.

Get past the bogeyman propaganda about Ukraine and Nazis and NATO and any existential threats. Putin uses those in an attempt to maintain his hold. So long as he has control he doesn't have to answer for his crimes.

 

[TV and credit cards]

To understand Russians, *we must think like Russians.

When trying to find the rationale for why a government acts as it does, it’s wrong to assume that societies are ideologically or psychologically homogeneous.
An entire society and their government can be paranoid by western standards. We can see it creep into our own society. Weak civil liberties, unstable democratic institutions, pronounced inequality, systemic corruption lead to a paranoid society and for Russia toss national humiliation into the mix.
Now consider Russians have long suffered these ills that bend a government away from democracy toward authoritarianism. In the US, we have mostly only suffered them since Trump. Sure, you can walk it all the way back to the defunding of the public school system (I can) but Trump was the Rubicon politically. We in our lifetime have witnessed this. Russians know little else.



*By "we", I mean y'all. I was just being nice.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Disagree--it's not that he decided to draw a line there, but that he decided to try to retake part of the old Soviet Union that had been lost.

But the reason he did that is because so many of those Warsaw pact countries are now NATO members. A gangster like Putin doesn't want free democratic states near his turf. Putin isn't a megalomaniac, he's just a greedy thief using whatever means he can to enrich himself. He cares as much about Russia as the fat dictator cares about North Korea. It's just his turf and he doesn't want it being influenced by things on the border. His expressed desire to restore the Russian empire is propaganda. The only thing he fears is accountability.

I don't think NATO has anything to do with it other than he went after the piece he could take without triggering Article V. Objecting to NATO being on his border is an excuse, not a reason.

And Ukraine wasn't exactly a free, democratic state when he took his first bite in 2014. Taking that bite got them to clean up their act and make them into what he didn't want. Fundamentally, I think the problem is that he's a bully and Ukraine stood up to him. Anyone that stands up to a bully has to be given a good beatdown or others will dare to stand up to him, also. Oops, he couldn't back up his threats.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

ISW says Ukraine is taking a break:

Ukraine has repeatedly said that what they've been doing is probing, not committing to an attack. There's no attack to take a break from.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

If Putin only wanted to enrich himself, he wouldn't be invading his neighbors and subject his country to economic sanctions. I think he truly believes that he is the saviour of Russia, even if it means cracking a few skulls. And obviously, NATO is a threat to Russia's geopolitical expansion, not its economic expansion.

Putin being worried about a democratic popular uprising, that's a given. Every autocrat's first priority is to stay in power, and the secondary goal might be money, power, or delusions of imperial grandeur. Or all of them.

Putin is afraid of his puppets leaving and more places breaking away.

 

[Tigers!]

If Putin only wanted to enrich himself, he wouldn't be invading his neighbors and subject his country to economic sanctions. I think he truly believes that he is the saviour of Russia, even if it means cracking a few skulls. And obviously, NATO is a threat to Russia's geopolitical expansion, not its economic expansion.

This. I cannot avoid thinking that Putin is merely the next iteration is that sordid long line of unabashed Russian nationalists.
He would have felt right at home in the court of Peter or Catherine the Great.