How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

I don't know what "Russia becoming a NATO member and sending Putin to Ukraine" means.

Clearly the kool-aid talking.

Russia as a people could care less about NATO and would gladly welcome membership under those same principles and laws that all its members abide by. Do you really disagree with this?

NATO is a defensive alliance. Russians, even if they were not inundated with propaganda that NATO is the enemy their entire lives, would have no reason to be particularly eager to join it anyway. They have no enemy that they need to NATO to protect them against.

It's one thing to say Russians don't care about NATO on their borders, and another to say they want to join the alliance.

It's not the Russian people that want to expand and take over sovereign states. Sure they want economic opportunity and personal gain. Who doesn't? Putin is the Al Capone of Russia. He doesn't live by the same laws he imposes on Russia. He would gladly sacrifice every life in Russia for personal enrichment and gain. I don't know what could be more obvious.

Get past the bogeyman propaganda about Ukraine and Nazis and NATO and any existential threats. Putin uses those in an attempt to maintain his hold. So long as he has control he doesn't have to answer for his crimes.

Sure. But none of that explains why he'd want to invade or annex Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, or Moldova. If all he cared about was personal wealth, he'd have all that without these constant wars.

 

[Jayjay]

ISW says Ukraine is taking a break:

Ukraine has repeatedly said that what they've been doing is probing, not committing to an attack. There's no attack to take a break from.

The pause means they haven't found a breakthrough yet and Russia has been mostly successful in defending their positions.

Ukrainian defense ministry describes the situation "difficult":

Defense Ministry: 'Difficult situation' in Ukraine's east as Russia deploys more forces

Russia has deployed more forces to Ukraine's eastern frontline in its attempt to advance toward Lyman and Kupiansk and seize the initiative, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported on June 19.

kyivindependent.com

Russia is going on the offensive near Lyman and Kupyansk. You may recall these areas as ones being liberated last year during the Kharkiv counter-offensive. If Russia can get thme beack, it puts rest of Donetsk back in play. It's doubtful whether Russia has the forces to do so, but on the other hand, now that they got Bakhmut, the Wagner troops or whatever is remaining of them are probably free to be redeployed in northern Donbass.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

If Putin only wanted to enrich himself, he wouldn't be invading his neighbors and subject his country to economic sanctions. I think he truly believes that he is the saviour of Russia, even if it means cracking a few skulls. And obviously, NATO is a threat to Russia's geopolitical expansion, not its economic expansion.

This. I cannot avoid thinking that Putin is merely the next iteration is that sordid long line of unabashed Russian nationalists.
He would have felt right at home in the court of Peter or Catherine the Great.

So they were not after personal enrichment either? Interesting take.

 

[Tigers!]

If Putin only wanted to enrich himself, he wouldn't be invading his neighbors and subject his country to economic sanctions. I think he truly believes that he is the saviour of Russia, even if it means cracking a few skulls. And obviously, NATO is a threat to Russia's geopolitical expansion, not its economic expansion.

This. I cannot avoid thinking that Putin is merely the next iteration is that sordid long line of unabashed Russian nationalists.
He would have felt right at home in the court of Peter or Catherine the Great.

So they were not after personal enrichment either? Interesting take.

I did not say that he was adverse to personal enrichment. But that is a consequence not the cause. Putin seems more motivated by aggrandisement of Mother or Holy Russia. Personal enrichment come after that not before.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

If Putin only wanted to enrich himself, he wouldn't be invading his neighbors and subject his country to economic sanctions. I think he truly believes that he is the saviour of Russia, even if it means cracking a few skulls. And obviously, NATO is a threat to Russia's geopolitical expansion, not its economic expansion.

This. I cannot avoid thinking that Putin is merely the next iteration is that sordid long line of unabashed Russian nationalists.
He would have felt right at home in the court of Peter or Catherine the Great.

So they were not after personal enrichment either? Interesting take.

I did not say that he was adverse to personal enrichment. But that is a consequence not the cause. Putin seems more motivated by aggrandisement of Mother or Holy Russia. Personal enrichment come after that not before.

Well, I see you and Jayjay have ben sipping the same kool-aid. The flavor you've been drinking is "Putin Propaganda Unfiltered."

 

[TomC]

I did not say that he was adverse to personal enrichment. But that is a consequence not the cause. Putin seems more motivated by aggrandisement of Mother or Holy Russia. Personal enrichment come after that not before.

That's how it looks to me.

Looks to me like Putin isn't so much pursuing wealth as power and Glory. He's got the wealth. And he's got a ton of power.

I think it's about Glory. Becoming a legendary figure still revered centuries from now.
Tom

 

[DrZoidberg]

I did not say that he was adverse to personal enrichment. But that is a consequence not the cause. Putin seems more motivated by aggrandisement of Mother or Holy Russia. Personal enrichment come after that not before.

That's how it looks to me.

Looks to me like Putin isn't so much pursuing wealth as power and Glory. He's got the wealth. And he's got a ton of power.

I think it's about Glory. Becoming a legendary figure still revered centuries from now.
Tom

I think you underestimate the political realities for a dictator. Putin is just a guy. He can be replaced at any moment with any other guy. He knows this. Everyone knows this. His only justification for power is to continuously keep delivering to his power base.

This is the reason why monarchies are so stable. If we imbue our sovereign and his family with magical and mystical powers, then we make it much harder for usurpers to take over. They can then relax a bit and focus on other things than just staying in power. You know, like running an efficient government. Democracies are similar but the reverse. We put a gun to the prime ministers head and we promise not to shoot the prime minister as long as he focuses more on running the country than enriching himself.

Nothing is ever stable and safe for a dictator. He needs to prove his worth continuously. He needs to take bold action continuously and keep showing how he's the boss.

Wealth only means something if you live in a stable democracy and you're protected under a rule of law. Putin's stuff can be taken away from him at any time. It's not really his stuff. He's just borrowing it. It's the same deal with the power he has. Power needs to continually be reenforced to given to the guy at the top.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Once the waters have receded and the banks have dried, this river might offer many more points of crossing.

There are still problems. The area was heavily mined. But now mines have been moved by water and nobody knows where any of these are. Demining is going to be hard and slow for everybody. Meanwhile cholera and dysentary are beginning to break out, especially among the Russians according to reports.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Once the waters have receded and the banks have dried, this river might offer many more points of crossing.

There are still problems. The area was heavily mined. But now mines have been moved by water and nobody knows where any of these are. Demining is going to be hard and slow for everybody. Meanwhile cholera and dysentary are beginning to break out, especially among the Russians according to reports.

Mines are less of a problem today than they used to be. The last ten years demining robots have become a thing. Basically a Roomba for landmines. These are in widespread use today by all sides. Drones and robots are changing how wars are fought. We seem to be in the middle of a paradigm shift now. The Ukrainian army today is the most high tech army actively involved in a war the world has ever seen. It's hard to guess how this will play out

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Once the waters have receded and the banks have dried, this river might offer many more points of crossing.

There are still problems. The area was heavily mined. But now mines have been moved by water and nobody knows where any of these are. Demining is going to be hard and slow for everybody. Meanwhile cholera and dysentary are beginning to break out, especially among the Russians according to reports.

Mines are less of a problem today than they used to be. The last ten years demining robots have become a thing. Basically a Roomba for landmines. These are in widespread use today by all sides. Drones and robots are changing how wars are fought. We seem to be in the middle of a paradigm shift now. The Ukrainian army today is the most high tech army actively involved in a war the world has ever seen. It's hard to guess how this will play out

Not true. Mining Ukraine is a Russian specialty. And so is booby trapping mines to kill deminers. It will take decades to demine Ukraine. Drone demining is no panaceae, no magic fix.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If Putin only wanted to enrich himself, he wouldn't be invading his neighbors and subject his country to economic sanctions. I think he truly believes that he is the saviour of Russia, even if it means cracking a few skulls. And obviously, NATO is a threat to Russia's geopolitical expansion, not its economic expansion.

This. I cannot avoid thinking that Putin is merely the next iteration is that sordid long line of unabashed Russian nationalists.
He would have felt right at home in the court of Peter or Catherine the Great.

So they were not after personal enrichment either? Interesting take.

I did not say that he was adverse to personal enrichment. But that is a consequence not the cause. Putin seems more motivated by aggrandisement of Mother or Holy Russia. Personal enrichment come after that not before.

I think that came after his personal enrichment, not before. After all, he has done fuck all to actually help raise the profile of Russia economically for decades.

 

[Jayjay]

So they were not after personal enrichment either? Interesting take.

I did not say that he was adverse to personal enrichment. But that is a consequence not the cause. Putin seems more motivated by aggrandisement of Mother or Holy Russia. Personal enrichment come after that not before.

I think that came after his personal enrichment, not before. After all, he has done fuck all to actually help raise the profile of Russia economically for decades.

He did raise Russia's economy from the crapper where it was in the 90s.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So they were not after personal enrichment either? Interesting take.

I did not say that he was adverse to personal enrichment. But that is a consequence not the cause. Putin seems more motivated by aggrandisement of Mother or Holy Russia. Personal enrichment come after that not before.

I think that came after his personal enrichment, not before. After all, he has done fuck all to actually help raise the profile of Russia economically for decades.

He did raise Russia's economy from the crapper where it was in the 90s.

No he didn't. He and his cronies created an oligarchy and hoarded production.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

So they were not after personal enrichment either? Interesting take.

I did not say that he was adverse to personal enrichment. But that is a consequence not the cause. Putin seems more motivated by aggrandisement of Mother or Holy Russia. Personal enrichment come after that not before.

I think that came after his personal enrichment, not before. After all, he has done fuck all to actually help raise the profile of Russia economically for decades.

He did raise Russia's economy from the crapper where it was in the 90s.

No he didn't. He and his cronies created an oligarchy and hoarded production.

That's called trickle-down economics.

 

[Copernicus]

A lot of what Putin did was helped along by massive foreign investment. If he hadn't invaded Ukraine, the Russian economy would still be expanding, especially with energy sales to Western Europe. All those oligarchs would still be sailing around the world and throwing parties, not to mention Putin himself, who had the biggest yacht. Easy come, easy go. But he is still fabulously wealthy, so Russians can be proud of that achievement by their government.

 

[Jayjay]

So they were not after personal enrichment either? Interesting take.

I did not say that he was adverse to personal enrichment. But that is a consequence not the cause. Putin seems more motivated by aggrandisement of Mother or Holy Russia. Personal enrichment come after that not before.

I think that came after his personal enrichment, not before. After all, he has done fuck all to actually help raise the profile of Russia economically for decades.

He did raise Russia's economy from the crapper where it was in the 90s.

No he didn't. He and his cronies created an oligarchy and hoarded production.

Putin didn't create the oligarchy. He just took over and made it work for him. In particular, he made sure that strategic industries like energy were in hands of the government, and that any oligarch who started having ideas about democracy or civil society would be quickly silenced. It can also be argued that the economic progress in the 2000s was helped by higher oil prices and foreign investment as much as anything Putin had a hand in, but in the end it doesn't really matter, because the people's standard of living improved and they're surely crediting it to Putin, their immortal Tsar and protector of the realm.

 

[bilby]

they're surely crediting it to Putin, their immortal Tsar

It's spelled "immoral".

 

[robnisch]

Russian Army Hit by Cholera Outbreak After Kakhovka Dam Flooding

Hey Puty what else can go wrong?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Not true. Mining Ukraine is a Russian specialty. And so is booby trapping mines to kill deminers. It will take decades to demine Ukraine. Drone demining is no panaceae, no magic fix.

That's why mines are usually just blown in place rather than removed.

 

[SLD]

Russians discussing nuclear options.



Effing scary.