How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Elixir]

And Russia has millions of people who believe exactly the same delusional conspiracy theories he does,

First, it's not a conspiracy, that's a fact. Second yes, Russia has 140 millions of people who believe that Hersh is correct.
What are you gonna do?

The number of people who believe something is meaningless as to whether it is true.

True. Over 70m Murkinz voted for a halfwitted conman because they believed he was a brilliant businessman.

 

[ZiprHead]

Seen elsewhere. Don't know if it's true or not.

Ukrainian forces have captured the heights overlooking Bakhmut to the north and south.
They can now observe any movements to and from the town and bring them under fire, seems they can close the kettle.

 

[Jayjay]

No, that's all on you. It was Russian oligarchs who turned the country into a mafia state

Acutally it is on US advisers who came up with that idea, literally.
What Sachs is talking about is different, he compares his experience with Poland and Russia.
US helped Poland when they were in similar situation. When He tried to do the same with Russia, he was praktically told "No, we want russians dead"

I went to read what Sachs said about it. Yes, his "shock therapy" was successful in Poland, and he was trying to reproduce it in Russia. But in the end, he couldn't get the US and IMF to back the effort. But I doubt that anybody said that the west wanted "russians dead". It's more likely because Russia was way bigger than Poland, and would require much larger bailout package to save. And secondly, because the US still had reservations about Russia. So they raged their feet, and eventually Yeltsin got tired of it. The opportunity was lost.

But, to say that Russia's poor handling of the situation was USA's fault is ridiculous.

First, Russia got itself into the situation. It could have been smarter for the west to help them deal with it, but it was never under any obligation to do so. Letting the Russians deal with their own mess is the default position.

Second, it's not only the American advisors like Jeffrey Sachs who are responsible for the mistakes made. Anatoly Chubais was a privatization zealot and worked independently of Sachs when he did a "garage sale" of Russian state businesses at bargain bin prices. That's how the oligarchs got started, and later, when US advisors were long gone, the underhanded privatization continued. It's not the americans' fault that Yeltsin and his cadre were incompetent and corrupt.

Third, let's not forget Jeffrey Sachs is basically just defending his own plan when he pins the failure on lack of financial assistance. Nobody else seems to agree that this was the singular cause. We can't rewind back to early 1990s and run alternative scenarios. Throwing more money at the problem might not have solved anything, despite Sachs's opinion.

As for oligarchs they were result of US meddling in the Russian elections with probably eventual goal to plunder Russia with this oligarchs scheme.

Well Sachs got fired in 1993. By the time of the 1996 elections most of the privatization was already done, and not according to any American plan but just due to Russian greed and corruption. And don't forget about Chubais.

And lastly, just because the 90s were traumatic to Russia, it in no way justifies Russia invading other countries in this century.

 

[Jayjay]

re: Nord Stream whodunnit.

Sure. But it just boils down to the fallacious "who benefits" argument

So Russia/Ukraine did not do it and US has direct monetary interest to do it and is the only one left who CAN do it.
So who did it?

I wouldn't count Ukraine out yet. They may have had other ships besides that sail boat. I'd say about 5% chance it's Ukraine, 5% it's the US, and 90% chance it was Russia. All of them had a motive and the means. So far most of the evidence points to Russia, but absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

But it sure as hell wasn't Norway like Seymour Hersh is claiming.

 

[Jayjay]

So we got 0 evidence for Ukraine shelling the plant, and at least 1 shell that came from Russian-occupied territory

YOU got zero evidence. And moon is made of cheese, you got zero evidence otherwise.
Russia shelling their own plant, for what?
Get your head out of your ass.

We know the shell in the yard that Russia was showcasing to IAEA was coming from Russian-occupied territory.

Both sides blamed the other for shelling, but I haven't seen any photographic evidence or video to support either side. Given Russia's track record of lying when their own shells hit them, I'm not going to just take their word for it.

 

[Jayjay]

The first victim of Finland joining the NATO.

Palatsimaiseen ostoskylään Venäjän rajalla käytettiin miljoonia – on nyt autio kuin aavekaupunki

Vaalimaan mahtipontinen Zsar Outlet koki epäonnisen kohtalon. IS kävi katsomassa, miltä tyhjä ostoskylä näyttää puoli vuotta sulkemisen jälkeen.

www.is.fi

THis shopping mall going bankrupt has nothing to do with NATO, and everything to do with the war that Russia started. And covid before that, like the article says.

 

[Jayjay]

When all is said and done, Zelensky will go down in history as one of the truly great heroes of the 21st century. Putin will go down in history as a failed dictator and a cruel and savage mass murderer.

Agreed. This must really tick off Barbos! Further more, future Ukraine will be rebuilt, with the assistance of the west. They will in the future have a vibrant economy and free elections. Future Ukraine will have NATO security. Russia will be a dying gas station selling products that won't be needed as much in the future.

Ukraine would have to win the war first. And there are a million ways to fuck up peacetime also. The territories that Russia has annexed will be a gaping wound that needs decades if not generations to heal. In the immediate future, the best and brightest of the country have been killed off or traumatized by the war, it'll take some time to recover from that too.

Right now, it looks like neither side can make progress. But the average Ukrainian is suffering more than the average Russian every day that passes.

 

[Jayjay]

Yes, the waggoniers are planning something. They are by far the most effective military Russian group. So, having them sit in Belarus dosn't make sense. I believe that there is a chance that they could invade Poland. But if they do, the little waggoners will be going against NATO. That won't bode well for them.

They will more likely invade Ukraine again from Belarus. Putin won't dare take on a NATO country. That would be a recipe for losing Belarus, if not triggering a global nuclear war.

Putin's speeches about Poland not being a real country, owing their existence to Russia etc. etc. is very reminiscent of the bullshit history lessons he gave before invading Ukraine. So it is troublesome.

Could be a bluff to make Poland more wary of donating weapons to Ukraine in case they need the ammo themselves. Or it could be that Wagner will conduct false flag operations that make it look like Poland is attacking Belarus, thereby pulling Belarus to the war against Ukraine. Or whatever else. But regardless of Poland, having one of Russia's elite military groups on the northern border is still troublesome. They might try to attack south and cut off supplies coming from Poland to Ukraine. At least it forces Ukraine to keep some of their troops in the north-western corner of the country just in case.

 

[Jayjay]

Losing that reservoir would be an emergency situation in any other plant. Even without Ukraine shelling near spent rod ponds. What if a fuel rod is rusted and creates oxygen in one of the reactors. How do they cool that. Why does the western media completely ignore it and continue to fund the shelling.

And where is this evidence of continued shelling of the reactor area?

And if the reactor is in danger why hasn't it been shut down long ago? Hint: Look at who has operational control: Russia.

I think 5 of the 6 reactors have been shit down; Russia is keeping the last one alive just to keep the plant hostage.

 

[Jayjay]

West making deadly error by shrugging off Putin's threat to go nuclear

US President Joe Biden’s inept statecraft, the enduring hallmark of his presidency, is at once a tragedy and a danger.

www.skynews.com.au

The operative word there is "lose", not "invade". Russia invaded Ukraine,

NATO invaded Ukraine. Russia is there to liberate Ukraine and then take care of it like it had been doing for a thousand of years.

No, NATO did not invade Ukraine. If having diplomats visiting the country or even military cooperation is not an "invasion". By that reasoning, Russia has invaded half the countries in the world. Heck, Russia had military bases in Ukraine since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. No matter how you look at it, even by your own definition of "invasion", Russia invaded first.

 

[Jayjay]

Note the 2014 "election" about the "breakaway" provinces was both utterly rigged (status quo ante wasn't on the ballot) and utterly unfair (the Russian army troops were allowed to vote.) Thus we have already effectively had an election: by rigging it Russia proved that they knew the outcome would not go how they wanted, thus we know the people actually wanted to stay with Ukraine.

Utter bullshit. US conducted the poll in Ukraine before the nazi coup - it showed clearly that Crimea is Russia.

So no source for this poll? Sounds like bullshit.

Reputable polls conducted in Ukraine and Crimea prior to Russian annexation have shown that a considerable portion of the population there wanted to join Russia, but not the majority. In the poll conducted in 2014 (i.e. after Maidan, but before Russian annexation), 41% were of this opinion. Also, this number went up from 36% since 2013.

News - How relations between Ukraine and Russia should look like? Public opinion polls’ results

www.kiis.com.ua

 

[Jayjay]

This is what I mean when I say your "arguments" are becoming more and more incoherent. NATO, without sending in any forces, assigning any regional commanders or having any bases in Ukraine invaded the country.

NATO had bases in Ukraine. They just avoided calling them bases.
So, it's you who is incoherent.

They weren't called bases because they weren't bases.

Heck, NATO rules forbid NATO bases in anywhere else except member states. The propaganda lie that there were NATO bases in Ukraine is just as dumb as the propaganda about secret biolabs.

What Ukraine had was a few military instructors. Who were operating in Ukrainian military sites. Not any clandestine "NATO bases".

 

[Jayjay]

Seen elsewhere. Don't know if it's true or not.

Ukrainian forces have captured the heights overlooking Bakhmut to the north and south.
They can now observe any movements to and from the town and bring them under fire, seems they can close the kettle.

Sounds highly unlikely. Probably this could mean North-West and South-West of Bakhmut, which Ukraine has been able to take back recently. But north and south is a bit of a stretch.

EDIT: Ukraine did take some ground near Klishchiivka and Andriivka, south of Bakhmut. So there is some progress at least. High casualties also.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

When all is said and done, Zelensky will go down in history as one of the truly great heroes of the 21st century. Putin will go down in history as a failed dictator and a cruel and savage mass murderer.

Agreed. This must really tick off Barbos! Further more, future Ukraine will be rebuilt, with the assistance of the west. They will in the future have a vibrant economy and free elections. Future Ukraine will have NATO security. Russia will be a dying gas station selling products that won't be needed as much in the future.

Russia has had some $350 billions in funds in Western banks et al confiscated. After hostilties are ended, this will be used to rebuild Ukraine. Ukrainian architecture post war is going to be interesting.

 

[Copernicus]

Yes, the waggoniers are planning something. They are by far the most effective military Russian group. So, having them sit in Belarus dosn't make sense. I believe that there is a chance that they could invade Poland. But if they do, the little waggoners will be going against NATO. That won't bode well for them.

They will more likely invade Ukraine again from Belarus. Putin won't dare take on a NATO country. That would be a recipe for losing Belarus, if not triggering a global nuclear war.

Putin's speeches about Poland not being a real country, owing their existence to Russia etc. etc. is very reminiscent of the bullshit history lessons he gave before invading Ukraine. So it is troublesome.

I see the two as grounded in Putin's ultranationalist perspective on history, where Catherine II essentially gobbled up much the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth at the end of the 18th century, a process that had been going on for a while. Much of Poland, like Ukraine, became part of Russia. It had a lot of Catholics, Jews, and other minorities that had to be dealt with, but it was officially Russian territory. Then Russia lost its empire after WWI and failed to get the Polish part back except as a vassal state after WWII. Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine were carved out of the Russian empire, and Trotsky's Red Army invasion failed to get Poland back after the Revolution. Belarus and Ukraine did emerge as independent states, but under Russian domination. Putin is the ultimate revanchist. In his dreams, he is the tsar who gets it all back for Russia. In reality, he thinks he can get at least some of the old empire back. That's one reason why Ukraine can't become a NATO member. He really sees at least eastern Ukraine as part of Russia--Novorossiya under Catherine II.

Could be a bluff to make Poland more wary of donating weapons to Ukraine in case they need the ammo themselves. Or it could be that Wagner will conduct false flag operations that make it look like Poland is attacking Belarus, thereby pulling Belarus to the war against Ukraine. Or whatever else. But regardless of Poland, having one of Russia's elite military groups on the northern border is still troublesome. They might try to attack south and cut off supplies coming from Poland to Ukraine. At least it forces Ukraine to keep some of their troops in the north-western corner of the country just in case.

I agree that saber-rattling at Poland is likely a bluff, and the attack to cut off supplies would be a reasonable strategic goal. Attacking Poland would be pointless, since it is a member of NATO, but the supply lines are fair game.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Yes, the waggoniers are planning something. They are by far the most effective military Russian group. So, having them sit in Belarus dosn't make sense. I believe that there is a chance that they could invade Poland. But if they do, the little waggoners will be going against NATO. That won't bode well for them.

They will more likely invade Ukraine again from Belarus. Putin won't dare take on a NATO country. That would be a recipe for losing Belarus, if not triggering a global nuclear war.

Putin's speeches about Poland not being a real country, owing their existence to Russia etc. etc. is very reminiscent of the bullshit history lessons he gave before invading Ukraine. So it is troublesome.

I see the two as grounded in Putin's ultranationalist perspective on history, where Catherine II essentially gobbled up much the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth at the end of the 18th century, a process that had been going on for a while. Much of Poland, like Ukraine, became part of Russia. It had a lot of Catholics, Jews, and other minorities that had to be dealt with, but it was officially Russian territory. Then Russia lost its empire after WWI and failed to get the Polish part back except as a vassal state after WWII. Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine were carved out of the Russian empire, and Trotsky's Red Army invasion failed to get Poland back after the Revolution. Belarus and Ukraine did emerge as independent states, but under Russian domination. Putin is the ultimate revanchist. In his dreams, he is the tsar who gets it all back for Russia. In reality, he thinks he can get at least some of the old empire back. That's one reason why Ukraine can't become a NATO member. He really sees at least eastern Ukraine as part of Russia--Novorossiya under Catherine II.

Could be a bluff to make Poland more wary of donating weapons to Ukraine in case they need the ammo themselves. Or it could be that Wagner will conduct false flag operations that make it look like Poland is attacking Belarus, thereby pulling Belarus to the war against Ukraine. Or whatever else. But regardless of Poland, having one of Russia's elite military groups on the northern border is still troublesome. They might try to attack south and cut off supplies coming from Poland to Ukraine. At least it forces Ukraine to keep some of their troops in the north-western corner of the country just in case.

I agree that saber-rattling at Poland is likely a bluff, and the attack to cut off supplies would be a reasonable strategic goal. Attacking Poland would be pointless, since it is a member of NATO, but the supply lines are fair game.

I don't know what Wagner is going to attack anybody with. They left all their armament behind in Russia. Unless Belarus is bursting at the seams with surplus.

 

[bilby]

Putin's speeches about Poland not being a real country, owing their existence to Russia etc. etc. is very reminiscent of the bullshit history lessons he gave before invading Ukraine. So it is troublesome.

Could be a bluff to make Poland more wary of donating weapons to Ukraine in case they need the ammo themselves. Or it could be that Wagner will conduct false flag operations that make it look like Poland is attacking Belarus, thereby pulling Belarus to the war against Ukraine.

It's not as though an expansionist militaristic nation invading Poland, while the Poles are under the treaty protection of a much larger military power, has ever caused more than a little local kerfuffle in the past. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[bilby]

Attacking Poland would be pointless suicidal, since it is a member of NATO

FTFY.

 

[Copernicus]

I don't know what Wagner is going to attack anybody with. They left all their armament behind in Russia. Unless Belarus is bursting at the seams with surplus.

Presumably, they would be armed, resupplied, and directed from Moscow. That assumes that corrupt individuals won't steal everything before it reaches them. Putin really needs the Wagnerites back working for him.

 

[barbos]

Rain in Moscow: