How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Tigers!]

In the push through Robotyne, indications are that Russia's "elastic defense" is stretched pretty thin. If Ukrainian forces continue to take bit-size chunks out of Russian positions on a pretty regular basis, it would indicate Russia can no longer execute the counterattack aspect of the elastic defense and is simply firing in retreat.

And note that Russia recently admitted to a nasty friendly-fire incident when routed Russian troops were mistaken for Ukrainian and shelled.

Also, note that Russia has been moving troops around to bolster the defenses in the area under attack. We very well might see another point get weakened to the point that it gets attacked also.

Well I hope they stay focused on the push toward Melitopol and hold the line elsewhere. Get the M14 road within range. Get ATACMS from the US to do some real damage to the Kerch bridge. Starve the Russian forces in Crimea for supplies. The US is replacing the ATACMS with Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). Might as well put the old stock to good use. They need to take that bridge out once and for all.

Joe Biden Is Probably About to Send These Deep-Strike Missiles to Ukraine

The long-range weapons could be used to equip Ukraine's HIMARS rocket launchers.

www.popularmechanics.com

Anonymous insider sources told U.S. media early in September that President Joe Biden’s administration would likely soon announce that the U.S. will transfer MGM-140 ATACMS land-attack missiles to Ukraine. Allegedly, a recently “rediscovered” stockpile of these ground-launched missiles has boosted the appeal of such a transfer, though recently, an Army official denied any ATACMS inventory was actually 'lost' by the U.S. military.

They didn't lose the missiles, they just misplaced them.

Found them in Kyiv, Ukraine?

 

[James Brown]

In the push through Robotyne, indications are that Russia's "elastic defense" is stretched pretty thin. If Ukrainian forces continue to take bit-size chunks out of Russian positions on a pretty regular basis, it would indicate Russia can no longer execute the counterattack aspect of the elastic defense and is simply firing in retreat.

And note that Russia recently admitted to a nasty friendly-fire incident when routed Russian troops were mistaken for Ukrainian and shelled.

Also, note that Russia has been moving troops around to bolster the defenses in the area under attack. We very well might see another point get weakened to the point that it gets attacked also.

Straight out of Sun Tzu

“If your enemy is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him. If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected .”

 

[ZiprHead]

Ukraine Update: Russians in Ukraine are having a very bad time

You can read more great Ukraine coverage by both staff and community members here . Today, we’re going to look at the war through Russian eyes. And no, not Russian propaganda, ...

www.dailykos.com

The following story excerpts are from the Russian-language Radio Freedom (translated by Safari’s browser translator, hence the funky punctuation). Radio Freedom is an American-funded project of Radio Free Europe, started by the CIA in the 1950s, but under State Department purview since 1972. In this case, its journalists talked with the distraught wife of a mobilized Russian soldier, using pseudonyms to protect their identities. “Vera” talks about “Denis,” her mobilized husband.

He called on Thursday and said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine take Andreevka, break through to Bakhmut, - says Vera. - And they are thrown into this Andreevka almost without weapons - he said: roughly speaking, we go to them with shovels and without artillery support. There is nowhere to retreat, because they are behind their own, who will not spare them either. He said that there were four hundred left of the regiment of a thousand people. Six hundred did not return from assignments. And all this in just two days. And in the official reports we are told that only 2-3 people died.

He is talking about Andriivka, south of Bakhmut, liberated by Ukraine in the the past couple of days.

Yesterday my mother-in-law wrote to a group of mothers and wives of the mobilized 94th regiment that our guys were in a difficult situation, - says Vera. - That they do not have weapons. And she suggested that this information be "distributed" on social networks. And everyone attacked her: you don't have to set everyone up. They worry more because of their salary than because of their husbands. They are worried that if the names of the rebels come up, they will simply be "missing" and they will not be paid.
Little Fedya, sitting on his mother's lap, knocks his finger on the phone. The photo on the screensaver is a young man with a son on his shoulders.
"Dad," says the boy.
- Yes, Dad, - Vera nods. - I don't want my son to know his father only from photos.

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin learned of the power of Russian mothers and wives during the Chechen War, when the Union of the Committees of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia agitated against Russia's effort to pacify its rebel province. He did not want a repeat, and has successfully neutralized their efforts by punishing the families of any vocal dissenters.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[TV and credit cards]

Goooood morning Crimea.
Since the strike on the sub and landing ship in drydock at the Sevastopol shipyard, it seems the Russians are pulling their ships back into the Azov Sea, closer to home, where they belong. Satellite photos showed three identical ships, what looked like Russia's landing ships heading into the Azov Sea.
Also there was a strike on the Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Crimea. Now, Russia is saying just one individual was killed in this attack. Ukrainian intelligence (GUR) is saying senior members of the Russian command were taken out. One thing's for sure, in that the strike was during daytime, the strike was intended to take out more than just the building.
At any rate, it doesn't look like Russia has much in the way of a naval presence in Sevastopol any longer. Drydocks aside, even maintenance to ships tied up alongside the pier would be a security risk.

Finally, it looks like ATACMS will be made available to Ukraine. I'm reading they will be the cluster munition type. I don't think you're going to take out the Kerch Bridge with cluster munitions but we'll have to wait and see what shakes out. Supposedly they will not be in the current weapons package being sent to Ukraine but the shopping list can change and assuming there is a positive account balance, they can be sent on their own.

And ISW has confirmed that Ukrainian forces have broken through the main defenses in the Robotyne area and are able to move heavy equipment beyond these main lines of defense. There will be other defenses but they will likely be more hastily constructed and easier to defeat.

So where does Putin go from here? How mad is Vlad? Ukraine looks to be using their ground forces properly, pinning Russian troops in a stagnant battle in most areas, not allowing them to transfer many troops to where they are needed at the main push at Robotyne.
Ukraine has come up with a nice way of getting missiles on target in Crimea by overwhelming Russian air defenses with drones first. With the ATACMS coming, all of Crimea is very much in play now.

What does Putin have left to fight with? What can he do? Critical point and one that could drive an emotional and rash act.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Finally, it looks like ATACMS will be made available to Ukraine. I'm reading they will be the cluster munition type. I don't think you're going to take out the Kerch Bridge with cluster munitions but we'll have to wait and see what shakes out. Supposedly they will not be in the current weapons package being sent to Ukraine but the shopping list can change and assuming there is a positive account balance, they can be sent on their own.

I think Zelensky wanted weapons that would help their ground forces driving toward Tokmak and the sea, and Biden delivered accordingly. But look for the Kerch Bridge to go down. Ukraine is showing itself to be quite capable despite it's disadvantage, It is developing new military technology almost daily. I only hope it can weather the economic storm and that its allies don't tire of Ukraine's fight for freedom. A free Ukraine aligned with the west is the end of Russian aggression and the beginning of a permanently free Russia. That much is certain and I hope we're smart enough to realize that.

 

[ZiprHead]

Ukraine says strike on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet HQ left dozens dead and wounded ‘including senior leadership’

Ukraine said Saturday its bold strike on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters in the Crimean city of Sevastopol had left dozens dead and wounded “including senior leadership.”

The attack on Friday is perhaps the most dramatic example yet of the confidence with which Ukraine is going after Russian facilities in occupied Crimea – and shows the vulnerability of critically important infrastructure on the peninsula.

In a statement on Telegram, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces said a special op dubbed “Crab Trap” was timed to strike while senior members of Russia’s Navy were meeting, and that the attack left dozens of dead and wounded “including the senior leadership of the fleet.” No names have been given and CNN has not independently verified the claim.

 

[robnisch]

^ Smart, as the Russian military is very top down. So, cut off the head.

 

[Ford]

Finally, it looks like ATACMS will be made available to Ukraine. I'm reading they will be the cluster munition type. I don't think you're going to take out the Kerch Bridge with cluster munitions but we'll have to wait and see what shakes out. Supposedly they will not be in the current weapons package being sent to Ukraine but the shopping list can change and assuming there is a positive account balance, they can be sent on their own.

I think Zelensky wanted weapons that would help their ground forces driving toward Tokmak and the sea, and Biden delivered accordingly. But look for the Kerch Bridge to go down. Ukraine is showing itself to be quite capable despite it's disadvantage, It is developing new military technology almost daily.

Plus - according to this essay - Russia can't even get the basics like artillery doctrine right. According to the authors, they were still using a doctrine developed during the last decades of the Soviet era, and while they've attempted to adapt to Ukrainian tactics, they simply don't have the training or organization left to adopt these changes. Plus the poorly trained troops are equipped with unsecured and unreliable radios, which has led to some friendly fire incidents (link to video in the article). As a result, Russia has had to pull back their artillery units far behind the front lines, advancing only for brief periods to conduct fire missions. On top of all that, the good old Russian "well if we can't be accurate, we can be overwhelming" idea of simply showering the target area with shells only works so long as you have a reliable supply. The article notes that Putin has had to turn to North Korea to shore up Russia's supply of ammunition and double production of shells at home in order to try to restock their arsenal.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is being supplied by NATO countries with far more advanced and accurate weapons. Russia is begging North Korea for shells and emptying their prisons for more cannon fodder.

 

[Harry Bosch]

^ Smart, as the Russian military is very top down. So, cut off the head.

Well, the huge deal is that we must get the Ukranian grain flowing in the black sea. Russia has no right to stop the shipments by international treaty that they have signed in the past (not that Russians abide by treaties). But it's harming the Ukranian economy. But it's also crashing the value of grain in Europe hurting Poland and others. And then its increasing the cost in Africa, hurting the poor. It won't be safe for commerce until all the Russians ships are sunk in the black sea.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

^ Smart, as the Russian military is very top down. So, cut off the head.

But the Russian navy only plays a small role in this. They have probably launched everything they're going to for ground attack by now--all they can do is hunt grain ships and they don't seem to be doing that.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

A suggestion. Biden and Congress promise to send Ukraine 3 long range cruise missiles for every Ukrainian citizen killed by a Russian drone, missile, or artillery shell. 5 missiles if the innocent victim is a child.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Both ships that came in for Ukrainian grain made it safely out. They needed only make it out of Ukrainian waters. After that they stayed within Romanian and Bulgarian territorial waters to make it safely down to the Bosphorus Straits. So we'll see if more shipments start up.

 

[Copernicus]

^ Smart, as the Russian military is very top down. So, cut off the head.

But the Russian navy only plays a small role in this. They have probably launched everything they're going to for ground attack by now--all they can do is hunt grain ships and they don't seem to be doing that.

However, the blockade of grain shipments was an important factor in this war, because that blockade not only cut off Ukraine's income, but it also put pressure on foreign markets and governments. The Russian Navy will now have a much less dominant position in the western portion of the Black Sea, which it had been able to maintain since 2014.

 

[Patooka]

A suggestion. Biden and Congress promise to send Ukraine 3 long range cruise missiles for every Ukrainian citizen killed by a Russian drone, missile, or artillery shell. 5 missiles if the innocent victim is a child.

Your entire arsenal would be empty by Wednesday (I'm posting this on Monday).

 

[Ford]

A suggestion. Biden and Congress promise to send Ukraine 3 long range cruise missiles for every Ukrainian citizen killed by a Russian drone, missile, or artillery shell. 5 missiles if the innocent victim is a child.

Your entire arsenal would be empty by Wednesday (I'm posting this on Monday).

I know he's not responding much to this thread anymore, and he's basically a propaganda mouthpiece at this point, but I wonder aloud how Barbie would respond to this. Russia is targeting civilians with their missiles. Apartment buildings. Hospitals. Schools. While Ukraine is launching attacks on Russian artillery positions, infrastructure like bridges and railways, and navy bases, Putin is ordering strikes on civilian targets in order to make Ukraine surrender to stop the sheer horror. State terrorism. Even on their own side of things they're inflicting terror on their own people. Conscripting prisoners, sending them to the front, and threatening to shoot them if they retreat. Using their own people as cannon fodder.

Ukraine can't do the "total war" thing, as they're fighting on their own territory and simply don't have the resources to bomb everything in sight. Russia is launching every ounce of steel they can produce at this little country that dares to stand up to them.

 

[Patooka]

Ukraine can't also do the "total war" thing because their immense international support would dry up instantly. Not saying that's a good or bad thing; I'm just saying it is.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

A suggestion. Biden and Congress promise to send Ukraine 3 long range cruise missiles for every Ukrainian citizen killed by a Russian drone, missile, or artillery shell. 5 missiles if the innocent victim is a child.

Your entire arsenal would be empty by Wednesday (I'm posting this on Monday).

I know he's not responding much to this thread anymore, and he's basically a propaganda mouthpiece at this point, but I wonder aloud how Barbie would respond to this. Russia is targeting civilians with their missiles. Apartment buildings. Hospitals. Schools. While Ukraine is launching attacks on Russian artillery positions, infrastructure like bridges and railways, and navy bases, Putin is ordering strikes on civilian targets in order to make Ukraine surrender to stop the sheer horror. State terrorism. Even on their own side of things they're inflicting terror on their own people. Conscripting prisoners, sending them to the front, and threatening to shoot them if they retreat. Using their own people as cannon fodder.

Ukraine can't do the "total war" thing, as they're fighting on their own territory and simply don't have the resources to bomb everything in sight. Russia is launching every ounce of steel they can produce at this little country that dares to stand up to them.

I keep wishing Biden would call out Putin and Russia by name on TV for all. Mass murder. Genocide. Torture. Rape and robbery. Slamming missiles and drones into distance cities in Ukraine far from the battle field killing civilians. And calling on Russian citizens to vote Putin out in the 2024 Russian elections. A real fire and brimstone speech painting Putin's genocidal war of aggression for what it is. Mass murder.

 

[Patooka]

And Milley didn’t •lead• the military operationally. Trump really has no clue and/or is just misleading his uneducated followers.

A suggestion. Biden and Congress promise to send Ukraine 3 long range cruise missiles for every Ukrainian citizen killed by a Russian drone, missile, or artillery shell. 5 missiles if the innocent victim is a child.

Your entire arsenal would be empty by Wednesday (I'm posting this on Monday).

I know he's not responding much to this thread anymore, and he's basically a propaganda mouthpiece at this point, but I wonder aloud how Barbie would respond to this. Russia is targeting civilians with their missiles. Apartment buildings. Hospitals. Schools. While Ukraine is launching attacks on Russian artillery positions, infrastructure like bridges and railways, and navy bases, Putin is ordering strikes on civilian targets in order to make Ukraine surrender to stop the sheer horror. State terrorism. Even on their own side of things they're inflicting terror on their own people. Conscripting prisoners, sending them to the front, and threatening to shoot them if they retreat. Using their own people as cannon fodder.

Ukraine can't do the "total war" thing, as they're fighting on their own territory and simply don't have the resources to bomb everything in sight. Russia is launching every ounce of steel they can produce at this little country that dares to stand up to them.

I keep wishing Biden would call out Putin and Russia by name on TV for all. Mass murder. Genocide. Torture. Rape and robbery. Slamming missiles and drones into distance cities in Ukraine far from the battle field killing civilians. And calling on Russian citizens to vote Putin out in the 2024 Russian elections. A real fire and brimstone speech painting Putin's genocidal war of aggression for what it is. Mass murder.

Imagine if Biden only started with that and then continued to call out people by name who enable Putin and peddle the same lies (looking at you Fucker and Orange Joffrey).

 

[barbos]

So Canada supports literal (3rd Reich, Hitlerian, WW2) nazis now. Nice!

And West admits that deadly Konstantinovka bombing..... was done by Ukraine. Zelensky lied about it.
Moreover, MSM tried (initially) cover it by editing videos, but it was hopeless.