How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Patooka]

So in tonight's instalment of "Putin imitating George W Bush", we bring you...stop loss; Russian style;

Russia: The Discontent of Soldiers' Wives Is Growing

The majority of Russians accept the war against Ukraine without complaint. But now, some of the wives of conscripted men are starting to go public with their frustration. They could become a problem for Putin.

www.spiegel.de

Andreyeva believes her husband has by now done his fair share when it comes to patching up wounded soldiers and examining dead bodies. It is now, she says, time for others to take their turn. "I want my husband to come home," she says. "He's exhausted. He’s had enough.” The petite, dark-haired 34-year-old is a pediatrician and works part-time as a researcher at a hospital. It's her belief that Ukraine belongs to Russia and not to the West. And yet she doesn't lower her voice when she says: "Putin stole my husband from me and my family. He has betrayed us all."

The women post video clips on social media in which they hold up notes in front of the camera saying "Bring home the conscripts!" or “We demand demobilization.” Then there's Dariya from the Chelyabinsk region, who asks on Telegram: "Are we really going to permit this injustice?" She shares an article about how recruits in penal colonies were pardoned after six months of combat duty and returned home – unlike their conscripted men.

 

[Rhea]

She shares an article about how recruits in penal colonies were pardoned after six months of combat duty and returned home – unlike their conscripted men.

Ouch. That’s hard for Putin to answer.

 

[bilby]

Nukes. That's the reason. Russia has lots of fully operational long range ballistic nukes that can strike any target in Europe at any time, if any of them still work.

FTFY.

Most, perhaps all, of the Russian nuclear arsenal will have been degraded by corrupt officers. Certainly we have seen in Ukraine how badly degraded Russian military capability has become in conventional warfare.

The nuclear arsenal is likely even more degraded; If you are a corrupt official who diverts the maintenance budget for a tank brigade or artillery battalion to your vodka and strippers fund, you can only skim off so much, before your larceny is exposed during live firing exercises.

But if you're in charge of the nukes, you can be pretty confident that you won't have to demonstrate that they are still in working order. They don't need to go "BANG!", so as long as you can pay off the occasional inspector who seems worryingly competent (and my guess is that in Russia such people are both very occasional, and easily bought or fooled), you can pretty much live it up on Uncle Vlad's Ruble.

The problem is that nobody wants to bet that they don't work, given that even fairly low odds of Berlin or Paris or London turning into a cloud of radioactive dust, are fairly unattractive.

 

[DrZoidberg]

They are executing people in public. ANd the world media is letting them pretend they aren’t.

The news are just writing whatever they can verify. They shouldn’t speculate on stuff they can't. No matter how obvious the conclusion is. The bigger the news agency, the stronger the effect. Stuff like this can ruin a publication

 

[Rhea]

They are executing people in public. ANd the world media is letting them pretend they aren’t.

The news are just writing whatever they can verify. They shouldn’t speculate on stuff they can't. No matter how obvious the conclusion is. The bigger the news agency, the stronger the effect. Stuff like this can ruin a publication

True, you are right that they can’t. Wish we could talk about it publicly some way, though.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

She shares an article about how recruits in penal colonies were pardoned after six months of combat duty and returned home – unlike their conscripted men.

Ouch. That’s hard for Putin to answer.

That's a laugher, as if Russian Hitler really gives a shit. Hitler keeps control using terror. A few unhappy wives are the least of his problems.

The problem is that nobody wants to bet that they don't work, given that even fairly low odds of Berlin or Paris or London turning into a cloud of radioactive dust, are fairly unattractive.

Agreed. But that doesn't keep us from arming Ukraine to the teeth. The threat isn't empty, it's just simply not going to happen. Jihadists with a nuke is a different thing but we're not facing that set of circumstances. We need to wake up and shrug off this old cold war worry because it just isn't applicable anymore.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

"You". My side is for general human prosperity and freedom. Whatever side in the war will lead to that is who I will back.

I'm not a nationalist. I don’t care about nations, national autonomy or even borders (other than its generally good not to change borders).

Exactly. This is how one should pick which side to support.

Its a question of dedication. Russias entire combined economy is tiny, inefficient and underdeveloped. It has the capacity of output on par with Italy. If the west wanted to crush Russa, they could do so easily. Right now, the west is supporting Ukraine to a level where it won't hurt us economically. We don't have war time economies right now. Russia does. Russia is sacrificing future prosperity to win this. The west isn't. Even if Russia wins this war will be highly economically destructive for Russia for generations to come. Why is Putin doing this? Obviously, because he doesn't care about Russian prosperity. He only seems to care about staying in power

Russian prosperity does matter to him--a strongman doesn't want his people to suffer too much because that means less for him to loot from them. However, staying in power always has priority over the people--because if you're not in power you can't loot anything. Not to mention what it would do to your life expectancy. (There are cases where strongmen want their people to suffer--but that's always for world political reasons. Saddam was a good example--try to make the world believe the sanctions were hurting the Iraqis when in reality he was engineering it. Playing the sympathy card was worth more than the future looting potential.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Its a question of dedication. Russias entire combined economy is tiny, inefficient and underdeveloped. It has the capacity of output on par with Italy. If the west wanted to crush Russa, they could do so easily. Right now, the west is supporting Ukraine to a level where it won't hurt us economically. We don't have war time economies right now. Russia does. Russia is sacrificing future prosperity to win this. The west isn't. Even if Russia wins this war will be highly economically destructive for Russia for generations to come. Why is Putin doing this? Obviously, because he doesn't care about Russian prosperity. He only seems to care about staying in power

The western democracies have feared Russian dictators because of the military power those dictators have possessed. We should be past that but we are not. We in the west should ask ourselves why we are so afraid of Russian dictators, the only trump card they have ever possessed. Maybe subconsciously we honestly are wary that Russia could develop into an actual economic juggernaut. It certainly has the potential in terms of resources but it's leaders have always been thieves and tyrants for the most part. Revolutions in Russia have always replaced one tyrant with another. We in the west could stop that in one generation if we were smart enough. We came close in the early 90's.

Russian dictators have always been expansionist. It's not that they are dictators, it's that they keep trying to take territory. And direct conflict is out of the question.

And we didn't come close in the 90s. The changes were a reshuffling that left the same group in control but with more ability to loot.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Nukes. That's the reason. Russia has lots of fully operational long range ballistic nukes that can strike any target in Europe at any time.

Fully operational?

We have seen half their conventional missiles fail. Everyone knows the nukes won't fly, it's a good place to loot from. I would be very surprised if even half their birds work. I certainly wouldn't be on zero birds working but neither would I be shocked at such an outcome.

 

[DrZoidberg]

They are executing people in public. ANd the world media is letting them pretend they aren’t.

The news are just writing whatever they can verify. They shouldn’t speculate on stuff they can't. No matter how obvious the conclusion is. The bigger the news agency, the stronger the effect. Stuff like this can ruin a publication

True, you are right that they can’t. Wish we could talk about it publicly some way, though.

Aren't you doing that now?

 

[ZiprHead]

Nukes. That's the reason. Russia has lots of fully operational long range ballistic nukes that can strike any target in Europe at any time.

Fully operational?

We have seen half their conventional missiles fail. Everyone knows the nukes won't fly, it's a good place to loot from. I would be very surprised if even half their birds work. I certainly wouldn't be on zero birds working but neither would I be shocked at such an outcome.

Do you realize just how much destruction and death could be caused by "half"?

 

[Elixir]

Do you realize just how much destruction and death could be caused by "half"?

I think he is trying to get you to consider how little destruction and death would be caused by 0% functionality.

It sure feels like some people are itching to find out.

 

[DrZoidberg]

She shares an article about how recruits in penal colonies were pardoned after six months of combat duty and returned home – unlike their conscripted men.

Ouch. That’s hard for Putin to answer.

That's a laugher, as if Russian Hitler really gives a shit. Hitler keeps control using terror. A few unhappy wives are the least of his problems.

Eh, no. Keeping your soldiers happy is absolutely critical for any dictator. The army is the only thing keeping him in power.

I'm not sure it will be a problem. The prisoners were the guys who took part in the Wagner meat grinder of Bakhmut. The conscripts know this. I suspect they all feel the surviving discharged conscripts have earned their freedom.

There's a lot of speculative anti-Putin Western press that posit problems for Putin that he doesn’t actually have. A lot of wishful thinking.
 

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Russian dictators have always been expansionist. It's not that they are dictators, it's that they keep trying to take territory. And direct conflict is out of the question.

It IS that they have always been dictators. I agree that direct conflict is out of the question owing to the fact that just one nuke is destruction enough and must be avoided. But Russians have always acted rationally when nukes are involved, as have we, and this isn't the cold war anymore. I am certain that the Russian dictator takes great pride in being able to manipulate western policy based on old cold war scare. It is not going to happen. Both we and they have demonstrated that. They do not crave destruction.

And we didn't come close in the 90s. The changes were a reshuffling that left the same group in control but with more ability to loot.

The present Russian dictator is only there because we were stupid enough to still be operating under the old cold war paradigm.

 

[Rhea]

They are executing people in public. ANd the world media is letting them pretend they aren’t.

The news are just writing whatever they can verify. They shouldn’t speculate on stuff they can't. No matter how obvious the conclusion is. The bigger the news agency, the stronger the effect. Stuff like this can ruin a publication

True, you are right that they can’t. Wish we could talk about it publicly some way, though.

Aren't you doing that now?

I meant by louder voices than two nobodies on IIDB.
I meant I wish we could get it in the news - at least the published opinion pieces.

 

[Tigers!]

I meant by louder voices than two nobodies on IIDB.

That's rather harsh.

I meant I wish we could get it in the news - at least the published opinion pieces.

Indeed

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Nukes. That's the reason. Russia has lots of fully operational long range ballistic nukes that can strike any target in Europe at any time.

Fully operational?

We have seen half their conventional missiles fail. Everyone knows the nukes won't fly, it's a good place to loot from. I would be very surprised if even half their birds work. I certainly wouldn't be on zero birds working but neither would I be shocked at such an outcome.

Do you realize just how much destruction and death could be caused by "half"?

I was nitpicking his "fully operational" bit. I doubt they have any missiles that are fully operational. But, like the second Death Star something that's not fully operational can still be deadly.

 

[barbos]

Nukes. That's the reason. Russia has lots of fully operational long range ballistic nukes that can strike any target in Europe at any time.

Fully operational?

We have seen half their conventional missiles fail. Everyone knows the nukes won't fly, it's a good place to loot from. I would be very surprised if even half their birds work. I certainly wouldn't be on zero birds working but neither would I be shocked at such an outcome.

So you are willing to test this theory of yours?
You are all insane here in this thread. All of you.

 

[barbos]

Its a question of dedication. Russias entire combined economy is tiny, inefficient and underdeveloped. It has the capacity of output on par with Italy. If the west wanted to crush Russa, they could do so easily. Right now, the west is supporting Ukraine to a level where it won't hurt us economically. We don't have war time economies right now. Russia does. Russia is sacrificing future prosperity to win this. The west isn't. Even if Russia wins this war will be highly economically destructive for Russia for generations to come. Why is Putin doing this? Obviously, because he doesn't care about Russian prosperity. He only seems to care about staying in power

Do you ever get tired of posting this BS?
Russia is the largest economy in Europe now. Yes, bigger than Germany.

If the west wanted to crush Russa, they could do so easily

But you already tried exactly that and you failed, utterly failed.
Your whole plan for Ukraine war was about that. And it failed.

 

[robnisch]

If Russian economy is so great, why are they getting rockets from North Korea?