How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[aupmanyav]

So people shouldn't enter into security alliances because it might piss off the people they're trying to protect themselves from. According to you they should have consulted Putin, the very person most likely to threaten their freedom and security. Not so brilliant, you know. That means the US should have consulted Hitler and Tojo before entering WW2 because it had the possibility of impacting US security. Brilliant.

They should have been wise enough to think before they entered alliances as to what the alliance will result in. That is why we are non-aligned, and at least at peace with two powers. We are trying to come to an understanding with the third power with talks.
I have not studied the reasons why US joined WW2. First thing, it is 83 years since then. Not relevant now.

"However, striking south into British Malaya and the Dutch East Indies would almost certainly provoke an armed U.S response. To blunt that response, Japan decided to attack the U.S Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, hoping that the U.S would negotiate peace."

Why did Japan attack Pearl Harbor?

Japan attacked the U.S Pacific Fleet on the 7th of December 1941, but what led to that decision? Why did the Japanese attack the USA? - The answer is oil. In this episode of IWM Stories, Adrian Kerrison looks at why the Japanese decided to attack Pearl Harbor.

www.iwm.org.uk

Japan made a wrong presumption. They should have rather struck British Malay and the Dutch East Indies, and see if US joined the war. But they forced US to join war.

 

[aupmanyav]

What the fuck? So Ukrainians can’t elect who they want? That’s an acceptable reason to invade? Seriously?

Here’s a dumb question for you: why did Putin say he was unconcerned when Finland actually did join NATO? He had no problem with it. Ukraine was never seriously considered for NATO. This war has everything to do with Putin’s desire to conquer Ukraine. That’s all. It’s got nothing to do with NATO. If it did he would have shit over a Finland and Sweden actually joining. He didn’t.

Both together border more of Russia than Ukraine. NATO is just Putin’s bullshit excuse. And it’s not working as can be seen by his failure to make any progress in this war. He’s a fucking moron.

Yeah, seriously. They could have elected a moderate leader.
Putin is not unconcerned but he already has one war on his hand. He is trying to increase his power in Baltic Sea and in north.

"From February 2022 to December 2023, the Russians have moved most of their military activity northward, to the Barents Sea. "Symbolic demonstrations of strength far south in the Norwegian Sea, as we saw during the Trident Juncture exercise in 2018, have mainly ceased."

Russia's Activity in the North Has Changed: "Fewer Civilian Disturbances"

The Russian activity pattern in the North has changed since February 24th, 2022, believes a Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment.

www.highnorthnews.com

 

[aupmanyav]

I think it's more about the diplomatic game and international law than realpolitik. Realpolitik is when people say and do different things. They're not doing that regarding Taiwan.

Don't know about US, but we have consulate in Taiwan. Consider it an independent country but do not officially recognize it. It was the same with Israel at one time. If it is one country, then there should have been just one Embassy. What was the need to have a independent consulate? It is not a part of the Indian Embassy in Beijing.

 

[aupmanyav]

Russia is demanding Ukraine cede territory to Russia, disarm itself and agree to never join NATO to stop the bombing of Ukraine's civilians and civilian infrastructure. this is not peace talks. it is a demand for Ukraine's capitulation. As if Ukraine can trust Russia to not continue it's war of aggression in the future.

Sure, even the shopkeeper demands more for his goods but can settle for less. If Ukraine wants a war as egged by West, he is welcome to do so.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I think it's more about the diplomatic game and international law than realpolitik. Realpolitik is when people say and do different things. They're not doing that regarding Taiwan.

Don't know about US, but we have consulate in Taiwan. Consider it an independent country but do not officially recognize it. It was the same with Israel at one time. If it is one country, then there should have been just one Embassy. What was the need to have a independent consulate? It is not a part of the Indian Embassy in Beijing.

An embassy is not a consulate. An embassy is a tiny slice of that country in another. Its politicaly powerful and supported by a bunch of treaties. A consulate is just a regular office. It has zero official recognition, nor does it need any. An ambassador is legally protected. A consulate is not.

As you can see from the list of embassies, it's countries that are too small for China to bother with.

Here's the ChatGPT answer

"
As of 2024, Taiwan hosts embassies from 12 countries. These countries are:

1. Belize
2. Guatemala
3. Haiti
4. Honduras
5. Marshall Islands
6. Palau
7. Paraguay
8. Saint Kitts and Nevis
9. Saint Lucia
10. Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)
11. Tuvalu
12. The Vatican (Holy See)

In addition to these embassies, there are numerous other countries that maintain representative offices in Taiwan, which function similarly to embassies but are not officially designated as such due to the One-China policy. These include countries like the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Australia, Canada, and many others [[❞]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_diplomatic_missions_in_Taiwan) [[❞]](https://embassies.info/taiwan/foreignmissions)."

 

[aupmanyav]

The, "look what you made me do" argument isn't as compelling as you'd think.

I did not attack Ukraine. Putin did since he considered it compelling. 'Every action has an opposite reaction, some times equal, some times more, some times less (depending upon the circumstances)'.

"The Cuban Missile Crisis was a 13-day confrontation between the governments of the United States and the Soviet Union, when American deployments of nuclear missiles in Italy and Turkey were matched by Soviet deployments of nuclear missiles in Cuba."

Cuban Missile Crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[aupmanyav]

A consulate is just a regular office. It has zero official recognition, nor does it need any.

If China and Taiwan are one country, then the consulates in Taiwan should be a part of the Embassy in Beijing. Why not have an Embassy in Taiwan and consulates in China. It is one country.
It is not like that since many countries including US and India, do not want to ruffle Chinese feathers. Ukraine and some other countries have ruffled the Russian feathers.

 

[barbos]

Ukranian citizens decided on their own that Yanukovich was betraying them and they overthrew him all by themselves.

Nope.

 

[barbos]

If that is true then why haven't you posted them yet

But I did, you ignored it and forgot.

 

[barbos]

Some of these things are not like the others, but yes, the US has done some very dirty deeds and it is bad that they did them. Why is it so hard for you to recognize that Russia does dirty deeds too?

Because we did not, you did, AGAIN!

 

[Elixir]

No prophecies, foresight, or premonitions are needed; Just a memory of what happened a couple of years ago.

I wonder … does Modi’s goobermint censor reporting Russia’s losses, their crimes, their history?
Or does Aupy make a Herculean effort to never see that stuff, all on his own?

 

[Elixir]

The, "look what you made me do" argument isn't as compelling as you'd think.

I did not attack Ukraine. Putin did since he considered it compelling. 'Every action has an opposite reaction, some times equal, some times more, some times less (depending upon the circumstances)'.

"The Cuban Missile Crisis was a 13-day confrontation between the governments of the United States and the Soviet Union, when American deployments of nuclear missiles in Italy and Turkey were matched by Soviet deployments of nuclear missiles in Cuba."

Cuban Missile Crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Gee Aupy, guess we should have invaded Cuba, killed the people and destroyed the infrastructure, as Russia justifiably did when they lied about Ukraine being a threat.
I mean yeah -same deal; the US was installing Nukes in Ukraine targeted at Moscow, right?
Oh - that’s totally wrong. Never mind, it’s just a fantasy to entertain the ignorant Indian masses.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Yeah, sure. If there are no talks, that is Putin's objective. The war will go on and may turn worse with time. But things can change after talks.

This is where your judgement and your grasp of history is flawed. You think Russian Hitler is some kind of honorable party that is interested in the best interests of his citizenry and the world's citizenry generally. Nothing could be further from the truth as evidenced by his behavior and Russian behavior for the last century. But you won't doff those rosy Putin glasses you're wearing. You say you want Ukraine to expel Russian invaders yet you keep saying that the Russian invaders should be consulted about this. You have no position that is worth taking seriously. If you were Ukrainian you would have a different opinion. Subjugation is not peace and it is not freedom.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Replacement of Zelensky (not necessarily by a Putin stooge but by a moderate leader) and distance from NATO could be some of the conditions. Are these conditions unfair?

Not if you think Churchill and Roosevelt should have been replaced as Leaders of the free world at Hitler's behest in order to achieve peace in the 1940s.

I have not studied the reasons why US joined WW2. First thing, it is 83 years since then. Not relevant now.

That explains everything.

 

[ZiprHead]

What the fuck? So Ukrainians can’t elect who they want? That’s an acceptable reason to invade? Seriously?

They elected Yanukovich and you overthrew him.
Why can't Russia do the same?

We did not do any such thing.

And yes. Russia has acceptable and more importantly legal reasons to invade.

Really? What are those reasons? And, please, cite the laws that make the invasion legal.

It's way more legal than your bombing of Yugoslavia or invasion of Iraq, or Vietnam, or Panama, or Cuba, or Libya, or Syria.

Yay! Two wrongs make a right.

 

[Elixir]

please, cite the laws that make the invasion legal.

The law of “Pootey sez” is the only law that matters to the rogue Russian State.

 

[SLD]

What the fuck? So Ukrainians can’t elect who they want? That’s an acceptable reason to invade? Seriously?

Here’s a dumb question for you: why did Putin say he was unconcerned when Finland actually did join NATO? He had no problem with it. Ukraine was never seriously considered for NATO. This war has everything to do with Putin’s desire to conquer Ukraine. That’s all. It’s got nothing to do with NATO. If it did he would have shit over a Finland and Sweden actually joining. He didn’t.

Both together border more of Russia than Ukraine. NATO is just Putin’s bullshit excuse. And it’s not working as can be seen by his failure to make any progress in this war. He’s a fucking moron.

Yeah, seriously. They could have elected a moderate leader.
Putin is not unconcerned but he already has one war on his hand. He is trying to increase his power in Baltic Sea and in north.

"From February 2022 to December 2023, the Russians have moved most of their military activity northward, to the Barents Sea. "Symbolic demonstrations of strength far south in the Norwegian Sea, as we saw during the Trident Juncture exercise in 2018, have mainly ceased."

Russia's Activity in the North Has Changed: "Fewer Civilian Disturbances"

The Russian activity pattern in the North has changed since February 24th, 2022, believes a Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment.

www.highnorthnews.com

You completely ignored the point. If it was NATO expansion that triggered the invasion, why did Putin have no objection to Finland and Sweden join when their border with Russia is about as long as Ukraine’s with Russia? Maybe more.

It has nothing to do with NATO expansion. It had to do with Putin trying to re-establish the Tsarist and Soviet empire.

Here’s another point, Putin has actually pulled troops from his northern areas near Finland to support Ukraine. If NATO is such a big threat to him, then he would have to keep forces near that border to deter an attack. But he knows that NATO is not a threat. It’s a defensive alliance with no ambitions to destroy Russia. He knows they are no threat unless he attacks them. This war is about his expansionist dreams.

He won’t stop though there. If the Orange turd is elected, he will seek to destroy NATO so he can then start plotting to take over the Baltic States and Poland as well; other Eastern countries that considers his “sphere of influence” will also be threatened.

The only saving grace is that the Russian military is full of incompetent and corrupt buffoons. They can’t even cross a river under fire. The only way they will defeat Ukraine is if the Orange turd gets elected and withdraws support for Ukraine as he is ordered to by his KGB handler, Putin.

 

[Elixir]

Also, Finland is not the producer of 40% of the world’s grain.
Pootey is a common thief with an army, albeit a crappy one.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Also, Finland is not the producer of 40% of the world’s grain.
Pootey is a common thief with an army, albeit a crappy one.

The Russian military has always been a gang of looters. Russia has NEVER considered the popular interests of another state in its dealings which is why it is increasingly isolated globally.

 

[Patooka]

The, "look what you made me do" argument isn't as compelling as you'd think.

I did not attack Ukraine. Putin did since he considered it compelling. 'Every action has an opposite reaction, some times equal, some times more, some times less (depending upon the circumstances)'.

"The Cuban Missile Crisis was a 13-day confrontation between the governments of the United States and the Soviet Union, when American deployments of nuclear missiles in Italy and Turkey were matched by Soviet deployments of nuclear missiles in Cuba."

Cuban Missile Crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Gee Aupy, guess we should have invaded Cuba, killed the people and destroyed the infrastructure, as Russia justifiably did when they lied about Ukraine being a threat.
I mean yeah -same deal; the US was installing Nukes in Ukraine targeted at Moscow, right?
Oh - that’s totally wrong. Never mind, it’s just a fantasy to entertain the ignorant Indian masses.

Yeah, I'm confused as fuck about what aupmayav's point is as well. I mean, why not bring up Napoleon's invasion of Russia as well, seeing as we are throwing in irrelevant shit into the argument?