How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[steve_bank]

A last thought for for you Aupmanyav.

Russia and China are now having joint militray operations. If Putin takes Ukraine without any serious consequences China will be emboldened.

The two formally resolved their border dispute in the 2000s and now exercise greater security cooperation through joint military drills and arms deals. Moreover, their economic relationship has blossomed in the face of Western sanctions against Russia as Moscow shifts trade away from Europe.Mar 20, 2024

The outcome in Ukraine has potential consequences for India.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Russia, half the population of the USA, one tenth the GDP. Russia's one big export, oil and gas, crippled by sanctions and boycotts. Monetary reserves almost exhausted. And expensive war Russia really cannot afford for long. Rampant corruption.

And the Russian navy has been driven away. How are they going to protect that bridge? Build a narco-sub, I'm sure Ukraine can do it easily enough. Except instead of drugs it's got a boatload of explosives and a couple of demo guys to place it.

US Navy has been driven away too. By the way, bridge is still standing and ukro-nazi boats attacks subsided, you don't hear about them anymore, do you?

1) "Ukro-nazi", to distinguish from the real nazis in Moscow?

2) The boats have driven the Russian navy from the Black Sea--you lost. There are still attacks on the Sea of Azov but that's a much harder proposition and not done very often.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

100% of weapons Regime in Kiev use is from the West.
Russia no longer use Iranian drones and NK ammunition was merely tried and turned out not great.

Sorry man, you are not winning. But if you think you are, keep doing it, I am not going to interfere

They're making their own drones, it's only the heavy stuff we are sending.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

There was something in the news about Cihina mediating, but it was also said the majority of Ukrainians oppose any land in exchange for an end to the war.

Yes, according to phone polls which are not safe in Ukraine, hence useless.
In any case, Russia is getting the territories which voted to go back to Russia, otherwise Putin would have to do a lot of explaining. "Ukraine" is a loser, they have to pay.

Nobody voted to go back.

You forced a ballot measure where the status quo ante wasn't even on the ballot and then you flooded the place with Russians and let them vote.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I an wondering if there are more than one person posting under Barbos.

Just with my cursory knowledge of militray history the invasion was ridiculous

I see no indication of that. Rather, I see somebody living in a regime where he can't say anything against Pootin or the state. Think Emperor's New Clothes.

A convoy in the open with unprotected flanks and no coordinated air support. A stunning blunder.

Worse was they did it during mud season, ensuring their flanks couldn't be protected.

Wide open to hit and and run attacks which the Ukrainians used. Apparently the Russians were not equipped with good maps and GPS, or the Russian version of GPS.

Yup, their equipment is shit. And they clearly forgot history--that was basically a repeat of what happened to them long ago in Finland. At least that time they were inherently hemmed in by trees, it wasn't a self-caused error like Ukraine was. And I rather suspect they didn't realize how utterly vulnerable their flanks were to missiles. In WWII infantry had to get up very close to take out a tank and could usually be stopped by machine guns. (Tanks in built up areas were another matter, though, because buildings gave the defenders cover.) Now, stuff like the Javelin means the infantry can kill the tank at a range greater than the small arms of the vehicles in the convoy. It also used to be that the standard response to an incoming rocket was machine gun fire on wherever it was coming from. Very deadly to the crews and the older weapons were guided by the missileer, if they ducked they lost the missile. Now the machine guns don't reach and the Javelin is fire-and-forget, as soon as the bird is away the shooters are free to bug out.

It's not like this should be alien to them--Clancy understood it in Red Storm Rising. There it was the TOW fired from a jeep, they have to stick around to guide it but they can do so from beyond small arms range. It couldn't stop the Russian columns but it sure was an effective harassment.

When I was at Lockheed there were always militray journals laying around. The Cold War Soviets kept the lower levels in the dark. No maps or briefings, just given a direction to advance.

Exactly. The Russian system requires orders from up high with no initiative. This makes it very unwieldy in responding to changing environments. Look at how much effort was expended on that column before they finally recognized the problem.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

JFC! There were no military ties in 2014.

Russia was afraid that they would come. Ukraine did not do enough to remove this conception from Putin. It talked of war to free Crimea.

CIA chief had a long term apartment lease in Kiev.
They were running the whole thing. NATO was coming to Ukraine officially, there was no question about that.
Unofficially they were there already.

Where do you come up with this crap?

I'm sure there's some truth there.

CIA chief with a long term apartment lease in Kyiv? Of course. You think there wouldn't be a chief of station in Ukraine?? I'm sure the FSB had something similar.

Doesn't mean they're controlling things, though. Spies keep an eye on things, the idea that there wouldn't be spies from both sides in Ukraine is ludicrous.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Problems for Russian forces.

.....
Ukrainian forces attacked a ferry terminal at the Russian port of Kavkaz on Tuesday, killing one and injuring others, according to the region's governor. The Ukrainian Navy claimed responsibility for the attack and said that it caused "significant damage" to a rail ferry.

The service identified the vessel as the Slavyanin, a 500-foot freight ferry on the Kerch Strait crossing. The Slavyanin was the last railcar-capable cargo vessel in the region, and it was a key component of the Russian munitions supply chain for the occupied Crimean peninsula.
.....

Ukraine Claims Strike on Kerch Strait's Strategic Rail Ferry

Ukrainian forces attacked a ferry terminal at the Russian port of Kavkaz on Tuesday, killing one and injuring others, according to the region's g...

maritime-executive.com

You must have contracted dementia from your Dear Leader, because Russia has a land bridge to Crimea, with rails and road and everything.

But you're not sending much over it since it got damaged by that bomb.

You say it's fine, but the behavior says otherwise. Strong enough for light stuff, not for heavy stuff.

 

[Elixir]

NATO is stockpiling small tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and secretly moving them close to Moscow. No warning, just KABOOM! End of the war.

WTF is this shit?

No, they aren't.

They WERE, until Steve let the cat out of the bag.

Strong enough for light stuff, not for heavy stuff.

Do they even HAVE heavy stuff any more?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Those 6000 lb glide bombs are the devil for Ukraine. They have to be launched from aircraft but we're not allowing Ukraine to hit the aircraft and the airfields. We're really fucking Ukraine with this condition. Even Orange Hitler has said that the way to force a negotiated settlement is to force Russia to come to the table. That will never happen as things stand.

I would like to see Ukraine build and use a similar weapon against Putinstan.

 

[steve_bank]

In the VN war American pilots flying over Haiphong Harbor could not attack ships piled with weapons.

Publicly hot pursuit into Cambodia was forbidden but there were secret operations in Cambodia.

International politics.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Back channel communi8cations with China during the VN war warned us China would enter the war if the U.S. invaded North Vietnam or pursued massive bombing missions there. A land war with China. That tied the hands of U.S. war planners.

 

[bilby]

Back channel communi8cations with China during the VN war warned us China would enter the war if the U.S. invaded North Vietnam or pursued massive bombing missions there. A land war with China. That tied the hands of U.S. war planners.

Yeah, they didn't want that; They wound up losing half the country that way in the Korean War.

Oh, wait...

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

China's threat worked. The U.S. had to avoid fighting a land war with China.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

China's threat worked. The U.S. had to avoid fighting a land war with China.

Then the US and UK and Germany and France ought to help Ukraine develop such a weapon. Ukraine is using drones and that's good but 6000 pounds of ordinance says a whole lot quick.

 

[steve_bank]

One of our greatest military blunders was when MacArthur discounted China's threat to enter the Korean War.

China declared the Yalu River as the line not to cross or approach, the rest is history.

 

[ZiprHead]

CIA chief with a long term apartment lease in Kyiv? Of course. You think there wouldn't be a chief of station in Ukraine?? I'm sure the FSB had something similar.

John Brennan, chief of the CIA???

 

[barbos]

A last thought for for you Aupmanyav.

Russia and China are now having joint militray operations. If Putin takes Ukraine without any serious consequences China will be emboldened.

The two formally resolved their border dispute in the 2000s and now exercise greater security cooperation through joint military drills and arms deals. Moreover, their economic relationship has blossomed in the face of Western sanctions against Russia as Moscow shifts trade away from Europe.Mar 20, 2024

The outcome in Ukraine has potential consequences for India.

Good job at divide and conquer.

 

[barbos]

Russia, half the population of the USA, one tenth the GDP. Russia's one big export, oil and gas, crippled by sanctions and boycotts. Monetary reserves almost exhausted. And expensive war Russia really cannot afford for long. Rampant corruption.

And the Russian navy has been driven away. How are they going to protect that bridge? Build a narco-sub, I'm sure Ukraine can do it easily enough. Except instead of drugs it's got a boatload of explosives and a couple of demo guys to place it.

US Navy has been driven away too. By the way, bridge is still standing and ukro-nazi boats attacks subsided, you don't hear about them anymore, do you?

1) "Ukro-nazi", to distinguish from the real nazis in Moscow?

2) The boats have driven the Russian navy from the Black Sea--you lost. There are still attacks on the Sea of Azov but that's a much harder proposition and not done very often.

Dude, if I were you I would have been very quiet about Navy, cause you have been driven out of Red sea, and this is before Houthis having Iskanders.

 

[barbos]

But you're not sending much over it since it got damaged by that bomb.

Another geographically challenged american.

 

[barbos]

Those 6000 lb glide bombs are the devil for Ukraine. They have to be launched from aircraft but we're not allowing Ukraine to hit the aircraft and the airfields. We're really fucking Ukraine with this condition.

American imperialists figured out that it is not worth it to is lose aircraft carrier in Red Sea over this, especially seeing how ineffective ukro-american strikes have been so far.