How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Henry-Finland]

I hope we could discuss this: The US-EU military help for Ukraine

The U.S. Army has 3,700 Abrams in storage in Arizona. Most of them are from U.S. Marines that does not use them anymore.
It would be cheaper to sell (a part ? of) them to Ukraine instead of scrapping them. They need to be partly updated.

Who would pay for that?
EU told a year ago, that they can't produce as much military equipment as UA needs. They also told that the EU has money for the ammo and what not.

What does this mean for the US taxpayer?
- US would get the scrap metal price(?) for all the needed equipment.
- US would get paid for the updating, the needed (US made) update equipment and the transportation. This means that there would be more job opportunities in US. And also more tax revenues.



The "old" cluster munitions that USA do not use
US has a stockpile of 5.5 million cluster munitions containing about 728.5 million submunitions.

The same with some airplanes.
Why does not the Biden administration do anything about this?

P.S. 90% of the 60 billion dollars that US gives to UA stays in USA.
Lend & Lease-contracts would be a very good deal for USA. Ukraine has announced that they do not care how they get their weapons: As a gift, loan or Lend & Lease-contract. The main thing is that they get the weapons.
"Give us the tools and we will do the work".

Do not take this as some kind of US-bashing. The politicians in EU are exactly the same; just running around like chickens in a chicken coop. I hope they will come to their senses and begin to cooperate - in EU, with USA and the rest of the democratic world.

 

[TV and credit cards]

For now Abrams tanks are of little use in Ukraine as tanks generally need air support. The US tanks sent to Ukraine had depleted uranium armor around the turrets that was removed leaving them exposed. The US does not export depleted uranium. These tanks are overly complicated and maintaining them is difficult. They are prime targets for drones.

Drones are changing the future of war. More and more it is looking like heavy lumbering equipment will be little more than drone fodder. The future of warfare will be drones and the equipment that can stop them.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

How the U.S. sabotaged Russia's technology. One reason Russia's military tech is so second rate.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/08/04/us-spies-soviet-technology-00164126

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

How the U.S. sabotaged Russia's technology. One reason Russia's military tech is so second rate.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/08/04/us-spies-soviet-technology-00164126

Great article. Has all the cloak and dagger of Bletchley Park circa WW2. I would imagine much of that still occurs in Putinstan today between corrupt officials.

 

[ZiprHead]

A bad day for the Russian navy.

.....
Ukraine's military says it attacked and destroyed a Russian submarine while it was anchored at a port in the occupied Crimean peninsula.

The Rostov-on-Don, a kilo-class attack submarine launched in 2014, sank after it was struck in a missile attack on the port city of Sevastopol on Friday, Ukraine's general staff said in a statement.
....

Ukraine says it sank Russian submarine in Crimea

Ukraine's military said it destroyed the Rostov-on-Don attack submarine in a missiles attack on Friday.

www.yahoo.com

According to this article...

Ukraine claims Russian Rostov-on-Don submarine sunk in Crimea

Ukraine's military said it destroyed the Rostov-on-Don attack submarine in a missiles attack on Friday.

www.bbc.com

They waited until the repairs had been completed then attacked.

 

[bilby]

They waited until the repairs had been completed then attacked.

The RAF did the same thing to the German V1 and V2 factories (and many other critical manufacturing plants and military installations); They let the Nazis build them, and then bombed the shit out of them when they looked like they were ready to start operating. Then they waited for the bomb damage to be fixed, and ... surprise!

Eventually, the Germans had to build new factories, in abandoned deep mines, where they couldn't be seen from the air, and even the biggest bombs couldn't penetrate. But by then, the war was almost over.

I don't think the Russians have the capability to construct bomb-proof submarine repair facilities in Crimea; And even if they did, they couldn't bring in the materials without disrupting their already stretched logistics system, given the effective closure of the Kerch Bridge.

And. of course, keeping the construction of a large facility secret, in an occupied territory, is effectively impossible.

 

[steve_bank]

I think the Russians lagged in technology because of the political ideology and collectivism. It supressed individual initiative. That and the anti west posture made any cooperative collaboration impossible.

After the Soviet failed the major sorceress and industries were handed over to Kremlin insiders, oligarchs. Corruption.

China lagged until it dropped communist collectivization and allowed profit from initiative.

In the 80s I had a look at the Soviet equivalent to our Sidewinder air to air missile. Functionally it was equivalent, you could rack one of theirs on a NATO jet. A copy from an old Sidewinder version. Inside it was tubes instead of solid state electronics.

As vacuum tube audio amplifiers faded from commercial manufacturing audio purists who swore by tube amps only had Russia and one or two East European places to get tubes.Maybe western democracy may fail in the future, but Putin has put Russia on a path of no return. Futer isolation.

 

[steve_bank]

Barbos

Do you consider Russia and Venezuela democracies?

Can candidates strongly opposed to the government policies run for office in these places?


True democracy requires free propagation of information and views. It requires elections to be open to anyone.

Russian communications watchdog restricts access to sites including BBC, Deutsche Welle and Radio Free Europe following request by prosecutors.Mar 4, 2022

Internet censorship in Russia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

2024 Russian presidential election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Other candidates also declared their candidacy but were barred for various reasons by the Central Election Commission (CEC). As was the case in the 2018 presidential election, the most prominent opposition leader,<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#cite_note-15">[13]</a><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#cite_note-16">[14]</a> Alexei Navalny, was barred from running due to a prior criminal conviction seen as politically motivated.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#cite_note-New_York_Times-17">[15]</a><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#cite_note-Gomozova-18">[16]</a><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#cite_note-19">[17]</a> Navalny died in prison in February 2024, weeks before the election, under suspicious circumstances.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#cite_note-20">[18]</a><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#cite_note-ABC_News-21">[19]</a> Nadezhdin, despite passing the initial stages of the process, on 8 February 2024, was also barred from running. The decision was announced at a special CEC session, citing alleged irregularities in the signatures of voters supporting his candidacy. Nadezhdin's status as the only explicitly anti-war candidate was widely regarded as the real reason for his disqualification, although Davankov promised "peace and negotiations on our own terms".<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#cite_note-22">[20]</a><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#cite_note-23">[21]</a> As a result, Putin faced no credible opposition.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#cite_note-EdwardsStageManage-24">[22]</a><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#cite_note-Ebel-25">[23]</a> Anti-Putin activists called on voters to spoil their ballot. The elections saw 1.4 million invalid or blank ballots cast, around 1.6% of all votes cast, a 45 percent increase compared to the 2018 elections.

 

[bilby]

In the 80s I had a look at the Soviet equivalent to our Sidewinder air to air missile. Functionally it was equivalent, you could rack one of theirs on a NATO jet. A copy from an old Sidewinder version. Inside it was tubes instead of solid state electronics.

The difference being that the Russian one would still work after a nuclear EMP wiped out all the NATO equipment.

 

[Henry-Finland]

steve_bank said:
"I think the Russians lagged in technology because of the political ideology and collectivism. It supressed individual initiative. That and the anti west posture made any cooperative collaboration impossible."

You hit the nail! It is absolutely like this.

 

[Henry-Finland]

A troll factory in St Petersburg



In a so-called troll factory, internet propaganda is disseminated around the clock. The night shift runs from nine in the evening until nine in the morning.
Image: YLE / Mika Mäkeläinen

ChatGTP translation:

"In St. Petersburg, at the address Savushkin Street 55, there is an office building where lights are on day and night behind the blinds. The building appears normal – but the media has dubbed it a troll factory, as reported by Yle News.

Those who have worked in the building have revealed to independent Russian media that the company conducts large-scale opinion manipulation on social media using dubious methods.

The purpose is to produce as much content as possible that supports President Putin's administration and sharply criticizes Ukraine and Western countries, and to achieve the widest possible visibility for this content on the internet.

Initially, the company's target was primarily opposition leader Alexei Navalny, but with the onset of the war in Ukraine, the focus shifted to war propaganda and foreign policy. At the same time, fabricated comments began to be posted on the discussion forums of Western media outlets.

Automated and identical comments are easy to identify and counter, which is why people are needed to create variations of the duplicated messages.

The company has not publicly commented on its operations, and Yle has not been able to reach company representatives by phone or on-site. The only information about the company's activities comes from revelations by hackers and company employees, as well as from the company's own job advertisements.

Spreading propaganda is well-paid by Russian standards. Job advertisements promise 30–50,000 rubles, which at the time of writing is approximately 400–650 euros per month.

Read on Yle Kioski’s website what happened when Finnish journalists tried to enter the troll factory."

https://yle.fi/aihe/artikkeli/2015/...n-venajan-propagandaa-rustataan-kellon-ympari

ChatGTP translation:

"According to former employees who have spoken publicly, documents revealed by hackers, and journalists who infiltrated the troll factory, up to 250 people work at the troll factory. They spread propaganda on blogs, discussion forums, Facebook, VKontakte, Twitter, and the comment sections of news sites. One troll can produce 50–100 messages per day and maintain several social media profiles. They often also comment on the comments they themselves have written."

https://kioski.yle.fi/omat/kioski-pietarin-trollitehtaalla

(Yle = Finnish governmental broadcasting company)

 

[barbos]

Do you consider Russia and Venezuela democracies?

Not really. Russia is pretty much a Monarchy now with monarch being regularly referendumed into power.
The question is who is to blame for this? And the answer is the West.
You screwed the pooch in Russia in the 90s. So people elected to go with with a Tsar who is not subservient to the western oligarchy - Putin. He is basically fairly competent Tsar, it's good for now.
Venezuela is basically much smaller and less lucky in terms of governance version of Russia.

Now, do you consider USA a democracy?

 

[barbos]

In the 80s I had a look at the Soviet equivalent to our Sidewinder air to air missile. Functionally it was equivalent, you could rack one of theirs on a NATO jet. A copy from an old Sidewinder version. Inside it was tubes instead of solid state electronics.

The difference being that the Russian one would still work after a nuclear EMP wiped out all the NATO equipment.

EMP is overrated. Most modern weapons will survive EMP just fine, within limits of course.
And russian missiles don't use tubes anymore.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

When was it the West's job to march into Russia and make it into a modern day democracy? To miraculously undo 70 years of communist incompetence? Asking for my cat.

 

[barbos]

When was it the West's job to march into Russia and make it into a modern day democracy? To miraculously undo 70 years of communist incompetence? Asking for my cat.

I agree, your goal was not a democracy in Russia. And you did good job at that in the 90s. People are still cursing you.

 

[barbos]

I think the Russians lagged in technology because of the political ideology and collectivism.

There are serious studies on that and electronics in particular, you should read them.

 

[barbos]

I can be in contact with my Russian friends when ever I like.

And?

Until 2014 my family was Russian.

That does not compute

But it is true that you do not get any information from the Russian media that is not state-propaganda.

That's patently false. Internet based media is not state-propaganda. They do have to obey anti-fake laws, but other than that they can post whatever they want. I would even say they are effectively free. And I don't watch russian TV at all.

Typically the Russians does not get any other information as they does not speak any foreign languages.

Americans don't get alternative information even when it is in english. And MSM are absolutely state propaganda in the west. So what is your point?

 

[steve_bank]

Do you consider Russia and Venezuela democracies?

Not really. Russia is pretty much a Monarchy now with monarch being regularly referendumed into power.
The question is who is to blame for this? And the answer is the West.
You screwed the pooch in Russia in the 90s. So people elected to go with with a Tsar who is not subservient to the western oligarchy - Putin. He is basically fairly competent Tsar, it's good for now.
Venezuela is basically much smaller and less lucky in terms of governance version of Russia.

Now, do you consider USA a democracy?

Yet you support Putin as a dictator-king?

I consider the US democracy, we are a democratic republic with elected representation. From federal to state to local elections. States work much better than the federal government.

Most if not all states have referendums.

If enough citizens in Washington sign a petition the issue goes on a ballot during an election. If it passes it becomes law. Conversely laws have been overturned by citizen referendums.

Tax increases are put to citizen vote at the local and state levels.

States are highly autonomous from the federal government. Local cities create their own government.

Each state has an independent state police and each locality has its own independent police.

Each state has its own judicial system and supreme court.

By federal law with a few exceptions the FBI has no jurisdiction in states unless they are requested. The FBI can not roam and in the states arresting citizens because the president says to..


As to technology ,I also saw a Russian sonobuoy hat had been dissembled, it had an Intel processor in it. Black market chips. I worked on wepons system in the 80s.

A physcist I knew said he thought the Russians at the time had the best physics in the world, kids with aptitude in math and science were put into satee programs.

But they had no mechism to make it into praxtical manifactrble items. No woking manufactirng economy and engneering free of poltics.

Our first sealth plane was based on a Russian paper. Russia did not have the computer power to actually apply it to a design, we did.

You want to debate technology?

 

[barbos]

Yet you support Putin as a dictator-king?

He is not a dictator.

I consider the US democracy, we are a democratic republic with elected presentation.

No, you are not, but you have an appearance of that.

 

[barbos]

As to technology ,I also saw a Russian sonobuoy hat had been dissembled, it had an Intel prcsseor in it. Black market chips.

What year it was produced? Cause Intel was selling chips to Russia quite officially.