How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

I wonder if Barbos has any biddies who could join in.

I don't have buddies, you are my buddies

 

[barbos]

It is likely a lot better described as Russia was likely surprised by the random effort and lacked the ability to actually counter it as brute force wasn't as much an option in Russian territory. Russia might not have cared too much as well, knowing the Ukraine would clearly be very limited to the breadth of such an incursion. However, there is a massive gas utility that could have been compromised had Ukraine really wanted to and you've got Europe and the US to thank for that remaining in one piece.

Ukraine can stop gas transit without invading Russia and losing their men pointlessly. And I understand Kiev Regime are planning to stop transit at the end of the year, that's assuming they will get to the end of the year.

I personally think Russia need to stop gas to EU (except Hungary/Slovakia/Austria) immediately.

The Russians have underestimated the Ukrainians quite a bit, as well as underestimating the West's intent on not just allowing Putin to steamroll in.

The west underestimated Russia even more. You thought that sanctions alone would be enough to overthrow Putin and start pillaging Russia. Now, you are trapped, you made your Ukraine Project existential for yourself, and you are losing.
remember "Russia's GDP is smaller than Span's we can destroy their economy by sanctions"?

 

[Henry-Finland]

barbos wrote:
"The west underestimated Russia even more. You thought that sanctions alone would be enough to overthrow Putin and start pillaging Russia."

Overthrow Putin? I think 'the west' has left that to his criminal buddies.



Kaj Stenvall (Finland) Paintings - "Tea for You"
_________________________

'The West' sees him like this:




He sees himself like this:



Here above - also Kaj Stenvall's paintings

 

[Henry-Finland]

How Much Land Have the Ukrainians Seized in Russia?​

Proof of Russia's 3 day SMO claim, March on Washington (in Magadan Russia) calls to Nuke US, Kursk Governor Reports 480km2 occupied by Ukraine, Syrskyi claims 1000km2, Israel bracing for attack as Mahmoud Abbas meets with Putin, Zelenskyy meets with bipartisan delegation of US Senators, Harris likely to win if election held today

 

[Henry-Finland]

13 Aug: MASSIVE ONSLAUGHT:
Unlimited Shells VS Russian Human Wave Attacks | War in Ukraine Explained​

UNCENSORED COMBAT FOOTAGE on Telegram: https://t.me/RFUEnglish


Censored according to YouTube demands:

 

[Henry-Finland]

Kadyrovites secretly concluded an agreement with Ukraine on Kursk region​

Russian military bloggers claim that Kadyrov's men from the Akhmat unit betrayed Russia and stabbed the Russians in the back, specifically avoiding clashes with the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the attack on the Kursk region. The Z-channel of the former mercenary of the PMC "Wagner" Alex Parker Returns received information according to which the Kadyrovites knew perfectly well about the offensive of the Ukrainian army and deliberately let them through, having secretly concluded a mutual non-aggression pact, communicating through the intermediary Khusein Dzhambetov , who fought for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but later returned to Chechnya. Kadyrov's men understood the balance of power and did not want to lose their fighters by simply allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to penetrate deep into Russia. "The puzzle has come together, " writes a Russian military propagandist, accusing Kadyrov of betraying Russia. Over the past few days, Russian media have been actively accusing Kadyrovites units of fleeing the border. They did not engage in combat, but simply abandoned their positions.

Earlier, Z-war correspondent Kotenok told the truth about the "battles" of "Kadyrov's Tik-Tokers" against the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region.

Kotenok confirmed on his social network page that the Kadyrovites did not take part in the battles, but fled shamefully. He also writes that the breakthrough was made from three directions.

At present the Ukrainian Armed Forces successfully advanced further in the Kursk region. This time, towards the Belovsky district of this region. The media reported fighting to the south of the Sudzha district.

“On this wave, there were also reports of fighting in the Krasnoyarsk district: at the moment, they have not been confirmed… Such tactics would be logical for the Ukrainian troops: bypassing the problematic area where the greatest attention is concentrated, entering through forest belts and tracts into a ‘non-media’ area with the same characteristic problems as in the Sudzha and Korenev districts,” one of the pro-Russian government Z-channels Rybar reports. It is also noted that in favor of such tactics on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, “this would force them to pull back some of the efforts of the “fire brigades” from Sudzha and Korenevo.”

 

[barbos]

How Much Land Have the Ukrainians Seized in Russia?

None?

 

[Copernicus]

I look at the status of the war now as Russia having established a kind of Maginot Line to defend against Ukraine taking back its eastern and southern territories. What happened in Kursk was a bit like the German strategy in WWI and WWII, which went through Belgium to go around the French Maginot Line. However, I don't know what the strategy is other than to grab some lightly defended piece of Russian territory and hold onto it as long as possible. It poses no threat to Moscow or the vast Russian nation, and I don't see Ukraine using Kursk to try to flank Russian forces dug in and slowly advancing in eastern Ukraine. So the Maginot Line analogy doesn't quite work here, I guess.

Here is the strategy explained:

First of all, Henry, Tervetuloa to IIDB. You are clearly going to be the Ukrainian nemesis to our longstanding member barbos, although you seem to be Finnish rather than Ukrainian. Much of what you post here seems to be the Ukrainian answer to Russian propaganda. Although I support Ukraine, I am also familiar with how propaganda works in that part of the world. My Russian is fairly fluent for an American, and my Ukrainian is good enough for me to read a lot of materials without the aid of a dictionary. My Finnish is far more limited, although I have enjoyed building up some vocabulary with Duolingo.

Thanks for the posted video, which I watched and listened to carefully. It explained only the tactics used by Ukrainian forces to penetrate and occupy a lightly defended border area in Russian territory. As I've said previously, digging in and holding that territory might be a bargaining chip in negotiations to end the war, but I don't see much strategic value beyond that for the operation. I don't see its value now beyond striking a humiliating blow at Putin and changing the narrative away from the depressing recent gains that Russia has made in Ukrainian territory. What I don't see here is a huge victory that will change the fairly stable stalemate between Ukraine and Russia. Russia will inevitably win any war of attrition, and I don't see this incursion in Kursk as changing that dynamic.

Anyway, I asked for the strategy, and you gave me essentially the tactics used to carry out the incursion. I still don't see this as more than a minor victory in a war that has devastated, and will continue to devastate, Ukraine. Russia itself is not going to get away unscathed, but Putin and people who depend on him seem to be firmly ensconced for the long term. There is no serious opposition to Putin and his allies within Russia, although I think Russians generally do not support this stupid invasion of Ukraine. They are more afraid of sticking their necks out to do anything to stop those in power. Putin can be humiliated, but he is not going to be dislodged from power by this tactic. If anything, he will use it to justify expanding conscription to those urban centers in Russia that have still not been fully tapped for manpower.

 

[aupmanyav]

What problems? Are you trying to say that encouraging Russia to not invade a country is bad for Russia? And or good for “American supremacy”? That’s odd. Again please defend your position that a defensive alliance keeps America supreme. Are you trying to say that preventing Russian looting and stealing land keeps them down?

Financial problems, supply-side problems. Did I say that? But what will be the response if NATO keeps on increasing its circle? It is not good for US. Live and let live. Otherwise, at some point of time, US will get locked with Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, etc. They are quite close to it even now with submarines sent against Iran. NATO is not defensive, it is a predatory organization, Russia being its prey #1.

 

[aupmanyav]

Russia didn't invade is large part because of the UN and NATO. US missiles in Turkey and Russian missiles heading to Cuba didn't end in war because of the UN.

Is this some kind of a joke, Jim? UN prevented a war! Who among the big fish, or even among the smaller fish, cares about UN?
UN is a debate forum, like IIDB. Every one is free to express their view.

 

[Henry-Finland]

I look at the status of the war now as Russia having established a kind of Maginot Line to defend against Ukraine taking back its eastern and southern territories. What happened in Kursk was a bit like the German strategy in WWI and WWII, which went through Belgium to go around the French Maginot Line. However, I don't know what the strategy is other than to grab some lightly defended piece of Russian territory and hold onto it as long as possible. It poses no threat to Moscow or the vast Russian nation, and I don't see Ukraine using Kursk to try to flank Russian forces dug in and slowly advancing in eastern Ukraine. So the Maginot Line analogy doesn't quite work here, I guess.

Here is the strategy explained:

First of all, Henry, Tervetuloa to IIDB. You are clearly going to be the Ukrainian nemesis to our longstanding member barbos, although you seem to be Finnish rather than Ukrainian. Much of what you post here seems to be the Ukrainian answer to Russian propaganda. Although I support Ukraine, I am also familiar with how propaganda works in that part of the world. My Russian is fairly fluent for an American, and my Ukrainian is good enough for me to read a lot of materials without the aid of a dictionary. My Finnish is far more limited, although I have enjoyed building up some vocabulary with Duolingo.

Thanks for the posted video, which I watched and listened to carefully. It explained only the tactics used by Ukrainian forces to penetrate and occupy a lightly defended border area in Russian territory. As I've said previously, digging in and holding that territory might be a bargaining chip in negotiations to end the war, but I don't see much strategic value beyond that for the operation. I don't see its value now beyond striking a humiliating blow at Putin and changing the narrative away from the depressing recent gains that Russia has made in Ukrainian territory. What I don't see here is a huge victory that will change the fairly stable stalemate between Ukraine and Russia. Russia will inevitably win any war of attrition, and I don't see this incursion in Kursk as changing that dynamic.

Anyway, I asked for the strategy, and you gave me essentially the tactics used to carry out the incursion. I still don't see this as more than a minor victory in a war that has devastated, and will continue to devastate, Ukraine. Russia itself is not going to get away unscathed, but Putin and people who depend on him seem to be firmly ensconced for the long term. There is no serious opposition to Putin and his allies within Russia, although I think Russians generally do not support this stupid invasion of Ukraine. They are more afraid of sticking their necks out to do anything to stop those in power. Putin can be humiliated, but he is not going to be dislodged from power by this tactic. If anything, he will use it to justify expanding conscription to those urban centers in Russia that have still not been fully tapped for manpower.

I'll try to explain things briefly:

• Yes, I am a Swedish-speaking Finn, meaning I was born in Finland, and my native language is Swedish. So, I speak both languages, and I studied German in school. I also know some Russian because I lived in Russia for over six years. Previously, I lived in Greece for a couple of years, and about seven years ago, I moved here to Bulgaria.
• I have also encountered a lot of propaganda. Personally, I mostly publish other people's writings, videos, etc. I write about 5% of the content myself. The most important thing, in my view, is to always provide a source or link in these discussions. A lot then depends on the reader's media literacy and their knowledge of the subject, meaning that often, through questions, you notice or see which aspects are unclear—either for the reader or for yourself.
• It's true that my post didn't really address strategy but was more focused on tactics.

Here are what I would consider strategic values (other than those mentioned in these discussions):

• The most important one is directed toward Western countries. Ukraine has shown that nothing changes even if they use Western weapons against Russia inside Russia. The only weapons they haven't used yet are ATACMS, but I believe they will soon get permission for those as well.
• The Western audience also gained new confidence, and it seems that support hasn't waned but has actually increased. As long as there is public support, there will also be political support. If public support falters, politicians will quickly start backtracking.
• It seems they're also getting rid of the TikTok army if what Russian military bloggers claim is true: 'The Chechens made a prior agreement with the Ukrainians.'

A lot depends on what the Ukrainians do next. They have significant concentrations east of Kursk Oblast. Apparently, this is why the Russians are already evacuating in Belgorod Oblast. We don't know how much propaganda was involved in the ongoing "There aren't enough soldiers" discussions. How many 25-27-year-olds have been trained since the law changed? (Besides, the age limit of 25 seems completely absurd for a country that fights for its existence).

• Regarding the war of attrition, it's important to remember that Russia's GDP is comparable to that of Italy. Europe alone could support Ukraine if the countries were willing. Unfortunately, Europe seems very divided.
• I don't believe the Russian people will ever rise against Putin. Russians never get their shit together. But there could be serious opposition from within his inner circle. On the other hand, the spark could come from an entirely unexpected source, as has often happened in history.

P.S. Barbos is a very good and loved friend - he gives a lot to write about - he is a motivator and I never fall asleep reading his posts.

 

[aupmanyav]

Add to my two previous posts:
1. Bangladesh changeover: I do not think US had any problem with that though it brings fundamentalists to power. Because Bangladesh closeness with Beijing may push India further into US embrace, which goes with their plan.
2. Indian Defense Minister of Nehru era, V.K. Krishna Menon, holds the record for the longest speech in the UN General Assembly. His speech on 23rd and 24th January, 1957 lasted more than 8 hours.

What is the longest speech given at the United Nations? - Ask DAG!

Frequently asked questions (FAQs) about the United Nations

ask.un.org

This is like someone's post in two or three instalments in an internet forum.

 

[Henry-Finland]

When the war expands to other fronts, the USA will be forced to use its own troops on foreign soil. This is because Biden and U.S. politicians can't decide whether they want to end this war or not.

All these wars, both current and those about to begin soon—Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, Taiwan, Sub-Saharan coups, etc.—are part of the same war. Almost all of these wars can be traced back to Putin:

• Putin - Iran - Hezbollah & Co.
• Putin - Iran - Yemen & the surrounding seas
• Putin - Sub-Saharan countries

Soon, it won’t matter who has a Vuitton bag or who bought a new Porsche.

David Bowie - Five Years:

 

[Henry-Finland]

Ukraine Takes more Ground | Humiliation of Putin | Fake Dictator​

Non-censored videos:
Denys Davydov Telegram Channel: https://t.me/pilotblog

 

[Henry-Finland]

Barbos!
Here we can see our beloved Russian TV (Everything in English):

Russian Media Monitor

Russian Media Monitor is a fully independent and self-funded project on media literacy and news reporting. It was created on February 25, 2014, in an effort to combat Russian propaganda. It features reporting and analysis by Julia Davis – Investigative Reporter, Russian Media Analyst and...

www.youtube.com

When you find something interesting, please let me know!

__________________________________________________________________

Vladimir Solovyov Cant Believe Ukraine Invaded Kursk on their Own​

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Russia didn't invade is large part because of the UN and NATO. US missiles in Turkey and Russian missiles heading to Cuba didn't end in war because of the UN.

Is this some kind of a joke, Jim? UN prevented a war! Who among the big fish, or even among the smaller fish, cares about UN?
UN is a debate forum, like IIDB. Every one is free to express their view.

The UN was a forum to be an emergency brake. Doesn't stop the car, but it helps slow it down. We haven't had WWIII yet in large part due to it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

That can't possibly be true, unless "lost" means killed or captured, which would be a very loose use of the word lost. And even then, there aren't enough Ukrainians to manage 1000 Russian POWs.

Honestly,
1000 killed, injured, captured, or a combination doesn't seem remotely out of line given the circumstances. A couple of years ago it might have, but not now.
Tom

Forces ambushed in transit and not spread out like they should be I can easily see it happening. This is away from the main battle area, there's probably no SAM cover against low level attackers.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

That can't possibly be true, unless "lost" means killed or captured, which would be a very loose use of the word lost. And even then, there aren't enough Ukrainians to manage 1000 Russian POWs.

Honestly,
1000 killed, injured, captured, or a combination doesn't seem remotely out of line given the circumstances. A couple of years ago it might have, but not now.
Tom

In one attack? The claim is HIMARS, but is that a viable targeting platform for something that is mobile? And isn't Ukraine restricted from using it against Russian Territory?

Ukraine lies to keep hopes up. Russia lies to keep Putin from being vertically challenged. I don't trust any of it. I'm typically on a one-week delay when it comes to claims on the region.

Block the road in some fashion. Traffic comes to a halt, they get close to increase firepower against an expected ground attack and present a big target for attack from above.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The fact that you haven't repulsed them yet says a lot. And you were rushing people to the defense--got a convoy smashed by a missile strike. That means you were not taking care to spread out because they were in a hurry.

You are extremely quick to jump on russian fuck-ups and veeeeery slow noticing ukrainian one.
What is your point anyway? lets assume you are right, so what?
Russia must die becasue Russia is weak and incompetent? Is that it?

The point is you seem to feel it's not important and that it will be easy to throw them out. It's not a big force, the fact that you haven't done much of anything to them says an awful lot your ability to throw them out.

I don't follow you here.

The fact that they are still there says an awful lot about your lack of ability to throw them out. Putin is obviously throwing whatever's available at them, but they're rushing in recklessly and getting shot to pieces.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine was created as a republic in USSR by Vladimir Lenin in 1920.
Kiev is a Russian city.

This. "Ukraine was created as a republic in USSR by Vladimir Lenin in 1920.
Kiev is a Russian city."

So I assume that 1920 Lenin gathered some 768 professors to invent the Ukrainian language and culture? And all the Russians in Kiev liked the newly invented language and culture?

And
Finland became an independent country 1917, so maybe we also invented our language and culture and what not? This happened after Lenin spoke to us 1905?

Checkmate.

Again, whaaa??

The point is if they were your creation they would speak Russian. Same as we speak English.