How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Loren Pechtel]

All these wars, both current and those about to begin soon—Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, Taiwan, Sub-Saharan coups, etc.—are part of the same war. Almost all of these wars can be traced back to Putin:

• Putin - Iran - Hezbollah & Co.
• Putin - Iran - Yemen & the surrounding seas
• Putin - Sub-Saharan countries

Disagree. Russia and Iran are temporary allies of convenience. Islam doesn't like Russia.

 

[steve_bank]

Putin was selected by Yeltsin because he would portect olograchs from corruption charges.

Now Putin is stuck. He is paranoid probably fearful of assassination. Paranoid to the point where people publicly opposing him are arrested for treason.

A two week war lasting two years would be pressure enough. Add the Ukraine incursion and the pressure on Putin must be crushing. Relentless and no relief. All he can do is use extreme brutality to try and crush Ukraine.

Being around him is probably toxic. You can get an idea of it from what we see and know of Trump.

 

[Elixir]

You understand that what you so adorably call "NATO aggression" is countries with sovereign borders knowingly and willingly joining NATO because of illegal Russian aggression, right?

Right? You can check the dates if you want. I'll even give you a hint - how many countries wanted to join NATO after Russia invaded Chechnya not once but twice?

You mean Russia should have allowed Chechnya to secede? Would you mind if Texas were to secede from US or Quebec from Canada?
If they knowingly and willingly join NATO, then Russia would consider them to belong to the enemy group. That may have consequences later.

Gotta admit, I'm a bit surprised about your lack of empathy of an indigenous people attempting to overthrow the unjust rule of their imperialist oppressors. I just thought you might be more sympathetic for some reason...

Tone deafness is not an exclusively American trait.

 

[Henry-Finland]

All these wars, both current and those about to begin soon—Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, Taiwan, Sub-Saharan coups, etc.—are part of the same war. Almost all of these wars can be traced back to Putin:

• Putin - Iran - Hezbollah & Co.
• Putin - Iran - Yemen & the surrounding seas
• Putin - Sub-Saharan countries

Disagree. Russia and Iran are temporary allies of convenience. Islam doesn't like Russia.

Nobody likes Russia (really).
I was a bit unclear:
- Russia is buying military equipment from Iran—Iran is funding groups like Hezbollah and others, who are causing conflicts (in Israel and Gaza).
- Putin wants as many conflict zones around the world as possible because he benefits from them on many levels.
For example, France is dealing with headaches in Africa and has less desire to help Ukraine when you compare GDPs.
- I also understand that Iran is funding Yemen/providing it with weapons.

All conflicts are good for Putin.

 

[SLD]

 

[Henry-Finland]

New Russia Tactics Before Ukrainian Attack on Kursk​

 

[Harry Bosch]

All these wars, both current and those about to begin soon—Ukraine, Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, Taiwan, Sub-Saharan coups, etc.—are part of the same war. Almost all of these wars can be traced back to Putin:

• Putin - Iran - Hezbollah & Co.
• Putin - Iran - Yemen & the surrounding seas
• Putin - Sub-Saharan countries

Disagree. Russia and Iran are temporary allies of convenience. Islam doesn't like Russia.

Nobody likes Russia (really).
I was a bit unclear:
- Russia is buying military equipment from Iran—Iran is funding groups like Hezbollah and others, who are causing conflicts (in Israel and Gaza).
- Putin wants as many conflict zones around the world as possible because he benefits from them on many levels.
For example, France is dealing with headaches in Africa and has less desire to help Ukraine when you compare GDPs.
- I also understand that Iran is funding Yemen/providing it with weapons.

All conflicts are good for Putin.

Agreed. I'd add that conflict, misery, and suspicion are good for Putin (dictators). Defensive alliances, shared prosperity and stability are bad for dictators.

 

[aupmanyav]

Tone deafness is not an exclusively American trait.

I replied to Patooka's post long back. We are all indigenous people in India (99.9%). Tribal people have benefited from Constitutional 'Affirmative Action' for the last 72 years. Tribal people make 7.5% of the Indian population (that is about 108 million people). They are constitutionally entitled to 7.5% in all Ministries, legislative positions (at Center, in States and in local bodies), administrative and police jobs, and all other government jobs. 7.5% of all educational seats in higher education are reserved for them. At the lower level, providing education is compulsory for Indian government. I do not think 'Affirmative Action' in any country goes as far as it goes in India. Read more about that here:

vikaspedia Domains

vikaspedia.in

 

[Elixir]

We are all indigenous people in India (99.9%).

Huh?
There are millions of people in India who immigrated from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, Shri Lanka and even the UK, among many others. The fact that native born people outnumber them doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

 

[aupmanyav]

In addition, they are also eligible for the following government programs:

List of Union Government Schemes for Individual in India

List of The Union Government of India schemes which aims to benefit the poor, economically backward & rural individuals by improving the livelihood and providing security for leading a better life.

cleartax.in

There are millions of people in India who immigrated from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and even the UK, among many others. The fact that native born people outnumber them doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

There are thousands of people from Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Tibet, Myanmar; when things are difficult in their countries, they come to India. But the number of people from Bangladesh and Nepal goes into millions. We have long and porous borders with them (Bangladesh 2,545 miles, Nepal 1088 miles). Of course, majority are indigenous people making 1452.5 million as of Tuesday, August 13, 2024. (World-o-meter)

 

[Henry-Finland]

Think about this:
- Nobody has threatened/attacked Russia. Except Ukraine now, seven days ago.
- If Ukraine would be part of NATO, that would not be possible. USA and others would stop Ukraine from attacking Mother Russia.

So, if Putin were rational, he would ask Ukraine to join NATO a.s.a.p. and save his country from further embarrassment. Putin should also be grateful to NATO, love NATO.

There is of course the problem, that Ukraine is at war, but... maybe Russia could stop attacking and ask to be a member of NATO? Ukraine will not attack NATO.
Barbos! Can you help with this and phone Putin about this? Tell him that NATO will save both his face and a__.
No brimstones nor locusts - just peace.

 

[aupmanyav]

"In 1991, as the Soviet Union was dissolved, Russian president Boris Yeltsin sent a letter to NATO, suggesting that Russia's long-term aim was to join NATO."
Why did not NATO and US pursue that? But that is not what they wanted. They wanted American dominance.

Russia–NATO relations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Harry Bosch]

"In 1991, as the Soviet Union was dissolved, Russian president Boris Yeltsin sent a letter to NATO, suggesting that Russia's long-term aim was to join NATO."
Why did not NATO and US pursue that? But that is not what they wanted. They wanted American dominance.

Russia–NATO relations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It was a lost opportunity. I see absolutely no problem with Russia joining in the future if it fully adopts the criteria to join NATO.

 

[laughing dog]

I think the answer to the OP is simple: faster and more ample supply of weaponry. It is clear that the Russian army’s main asset - bodies - is also its main liability.In every other aspect, Ukraine has shown the ability to kick the Russians add. The Russian bodies pile up (or disappear), the more Putin’s hold lessens.

Now with actual Russian territory captured, Putin’s position is more desperate. The issue is not his public posturing, but his actual tactical response. I think he has to realize that attacking a NATO country will mean the virtual annihilation of his military.

 

[laughing dog]

"In 1991, as the Soviet Union was dissolved, Russian president Boris Yeltsin sent a letter to NATO, suggesting that Russia's long-term aim was to join NATO."
Why did not NATO and US pursue that? But that is not what they wanted. They wanted American dominance.

Russia–NATO relations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

You were part of the decision-making in 1991? Do tell.

It is possible no one trusted Russia. I wonder why.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Every so often I run across a feed from Times of India or the Hindustan Times. Every piece about Ukraine came straight from the Putin propaganda machine. So I can understand aupy's tunnel vision. Also consider that India is financially benefitting greatly from western sanctions on Russia so his support of Russia is understandable, even predictable.

 

[Copernicus]

I'll try to explain things briefly:

• Yes, I am a Swedish-speaking Finn, meaning I was born in Finland, and my native language is Swedish. So, I speak both languages, and I studied German in school. I also know some Russian because I lived in Russia for over six years. Previously, I lived in Greece for a couple of years, and about seven years ago, I moved here to Bulgaria.
• I have also encountered a lot of propaganda. Personally, I mostly publish other people's writings, videos, etc. I write about 5% of the content myself. The most important thing, in my view, is to always provide a source or link in these discussions. A lot then depends on the reader's media literacy and their knowledge of the subject, meaning that often, through questions, you notice or see which aspects are unclear—either for the reader or for yourself.
• It's true that my post didn't really address strategy but was more focused on tactics.

Tack så mycket. Jag pratar svenska bättre än finska, but I have to admit that I find Norwegian a little easier--closer to English. My experience with Russia goes back to the 1960s, but I've never lived there. So I've seen the way propaganda has changed over the years. It used to be far less sophisticated than it is today. I used to subscribe to Pravda and Izvestiya, among other publications, in Soviet times, so I know how to read between the lines. I find Ukrainian propaganda slightly more trustworthy than the Russian alternative, but it is still propaganda. So I take it with a huge grain of salt.

Here are what I would consider strategic values (other than those mentioned in these discussions):

• The most important one is directed toward Western countries. Ukraine has shown that nothing changes even if they use Western weapons against Russia inside Russia. The only weapons they haven't used yet are ATACMS, but I believe they will soon get permission for those as well.
• The Western audience also gained new confidence, and it seems that support hasn't waned but has actually increased. As long as there is public support, there will also be political support. If public support falters, politicians will quickly start backtracking.
• It seems they're also getting rid of the TikTok army if what Russian military bloggers claim is true: 'The Chechens made a prior agreement with the Ukrainians.'

A lot depends on what the Ukrainians do next. They have significant concentrations east of Kursk Oblast. Apparently, this is why the Russians are already evacuating in Belgorod Oblast. We don't know how much propaganda was involved in the ongoing "There aren't enough soldiers" discussions. How many 25-27-year-olds have been trained since the law changed? (Besides, the age limit of 25 seems completely absurd for a country that fights for its existence).

It still isn't clear to me what the ultimate objective there is. Ukraine is not going to hold that territory and will likely be driven out at some point. It was successful, because it was a surprise attack in a lightly defended area. Russia was counting on not being invaded at all, so they weren't prepared for it. Now they are scrambling to respond. I don't think that the incursion will have much effect on improving Western aid for the defense of Ukraine. In the US, everything is now about the presidential election, with Donald Trump and his wholly owned subsidiary, the Republican Party, representing a pro-Putin faction. It is hard enough to get budgetary support for Ukraine through Congress, and there will be considerable pushback over the use of American-manufactured military equipment being used inside of Russia.

• Regarding the war of attrition, it's important to remember that Russia's GDP is comparable to that of Italy. Europe alone could support Ukraine if the countries were willing. Unfortunately, Europe seems very divided.
• I don't believe the Russian people will ever rise against Putin. Russians never get their shit together. But there could be serious opposition from within his inner circle. On the other hand, the spark could come from an entirely unexpected source, as has often happened in history.

Make no mistake. The US is divided on this issue, too, and our attention is focused more on Israel than Ukraine right now. The Kursk invasion has grabbed the spotlight again, but there isn't a lot of support for getting involved in foreign wars. People want to see some kind of end strategy--a way to find a resolution that will stop the fighting, not escalate it. It looks like Iran is getting ready to attack Israel, and the US is sending military assets into that region. Sometimes I think that Russia and Iran are working hand in glove on this effort. Both have something to gain by stirring the pot in the Middle East.

P.S. Barbos is a very good and loved friend - he gives a lot to write about - he is a motivator and I never fall asleep reading his posts.

The last interaction I had with barbos was him putting me on ignore. I'm happy with that, since I don't really have enough heartbeats left in my body to waste them on him. I'll comment on his posts from time to time, because it is worth discussing issues with other board members. Unfortunately, since Putin's invasion, barbos has appointed himself spokesperson for the Putin regime--our own personal vatnik. He used to post more interesting comments, but now he is just interested in getting a rise out of people. He has been a board member for many years, so people tend to put up with his antics.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Every so often I run across a feed from Times of India or the Hindustan Times. Every piece about Ukraine came straight from the Putin propaganda machine. So I can understand aupy's tunnel vision.

Like barbos, he has access to the rest of the internet so he has no one to blame but himself. There is plenty of western media, some biased, some objective and plenty of nonprofits that also strive for objectivity. There's no excuse for spending a lifetime reading what conforms to one's long held opinions.

Also consider that India is financially benefitting greatly from western sanctions on Russia so his support of Russia is understandable, even predictable.

Were it me, I'd at least recognize and admit to the financial benefit for what it is, blood money. It would not garner Russia my support.

 

[Elixir]

There's no excuse for spending a lifetime reading what conforms to one's long held opinions.

Except that those opinions originated with the same reading ... it's weird how thoroughly a person's view of the world can be made to diverge from reality through simple constant exposure to lies.

 

[LoAmmo]

There may not be some deep, complex strategic objective behind Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory, much beyond, “You fuckers wanted a war; this is how wars work.”

I’m reminded of something the Royal Air Force’s Sir Arthur “Bomber” Harris said early in World War II, responding to the Germans clutching their pearls over having (gasp!) their civilian population centers come under concentrated bombing attacks:

“The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them. At Rotterdam, London, Warsaw, and half a hundred other places, they put their rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.”

Ukraine might be doing nothing much past reminding the Russians that two can play at this shit.