I'll try to explain things briefly:
- Yes, I am a Swedish-speaking Finn, meaning I was born in Finland, and my native language is Swedish. So, I speak both languages, and I studied German in school. I also know some Russian because I lived in Russia for over six years. Previously, I lived in Greece for a couple of years, and about seven years ago, I moved here to Bulgaria.
- I have also encountered a lot of propaganda. Personally, I mostly publish other people's writings, videos, etc. I write about 5% of the content myself. The most important thing, in my view, is to always provide a source or link in these discussions. A lot then depends on the reader's media literacy and their knowledge of the subject, meaning that often, through questions, you notice or see which aspects are unclear—either for the reader or for yourself.
- It's true that my post didn't really address strategy but was more focused on tactics.
Tack så mycket. Jag pratar svenska bättre än finska, but I have to admit that I find Norwegian a little easier--closer to English.
![Smile :) :)](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png)
My experience with Russia goes back to the 1960s, but I've never lived there. So I've seen the way propaganda has changed over the years. It used to be far less sophisticated than it is today. I used to subscribe to Pravda and Izvestiya, among other publications, in Soviet times, so I know how to read between the lines. I find Ukrainian propaganda slightly more trustworthy than the Russian alternative, but it is still propaganda. So I take it with a huge grain of salt.
Here are what I would consider strategic values (other than those mentioned in these discussions):
- The most important one is directed toward Western countries. Ukraine has shown that nothing changes even if they use Western weapons against Russia inside Russia. The only weapons they haven't used yet are ATACMS, but I believe they will soon get permission for those as well.
- The Western audience also gained new confidence, and it seems that support hasn't waned but has actually increased. As long as there is public support, there will also be political support. If public support falters, politicians will quickly start backtracking.
- It seems they're also getting rid of the TikTok army if what Russian military bloggers claim is true: 'The Chechens made a prior agreement with the Ukrainians.'
A lot depends on what the Ukrainians do next. They have significant concentrations east of Kursk Oblast. Apparently, this is why the Russians are already evacuating in Belgorod Oblast. We don't know how much propaganda was involved in the ongoing "There aren't enough soldiers" discussions. How many 25-27-year-olds have been trained since the law changed? (Besides, the age limit of 25 seems completely absurd for a country that fights for its existence).
It still isn't clear to me what the ultimate objective there is. Ukraine is not going to hold that territory and will likely be driven out at some point. It was successful, because it was a surprise attack in a lightly defended area. Russia was counting on not being invaded at all, so they weren't prepared for it. Now they are scrambling to respond. I don't think that the incursion will have much effect on improving Western aid for the defense of Ukraine. In the US, everything is now about the presidential election, with Donald Trump and his wholly owned subsidiary, the Republican Party, representing a pro-Putin faction. It is hard enough to get budgetary support for Ukraine through Congress, and there will be considerable pushback over the use of American-manufactured military equipment being used inside of Russia.
- Regarding the war of attrition, it's important to remember that Russia's GDP is comparable to that of Italy. Europe alone could support Ukraine if the countries were willing. Unfortunately, Europe seems very divided.
- I don't believe the Russian people will ever rise against Putin. Russians never get their shit together. But there could be serious opposition from within his inner circle. On the other hand, the spark could come from an entirely unexpected source, as has often happened in history.
Make no mistake. The US is divided on this issue, too, and our attention is focused more on Israel than Ukraine right now. The Kursk invasion has grabbed the spotlight again, but there isn't a lot of support for getting involved in foreign wars. People want to see some kind of end strategy--a way to find a resolution that will stop the fighting, not escalate it. It looks like Iran is getting ready to attack Israel, and the US is sending military assets into that region. Sometimes I think that Russia and Iran are working hand in glove on this effort. Both have something to gain by stirring the pot in the Middle East.
P.S. Barbos is a very good and loved friend - he gives a lot to write about - he is a motivator and I never fall asleep reading his posts.
The last interaction I had with barbos was him putting me on ignore. I'm happy with that, since I don't really have enough heartbeats left in my body to waste them on him. I'll comment on his posts from time to time, because it is worth discussing issues with other board members. Unfortunately, since Putin's invasion, barbos has appointed himself spokesperson for the Putin regime--our own personal vatnik. He used to post more interesting comments, but now he is just interested in getting a rise out of people. He has been a board member for many years, so people tend to put up with his antics.