How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jimmy Higgins]

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Russia's invasion of Ukraine is indefensible. The U.S. is right to impose targeted sanctions on Putin & his oligarchs. We also must work with our allies to prepare for a refugee crisis on a massive scale. Finally, any military action must take place with Congressional approval." / Twitter
noting
Catie Edmondson on Twitter: "You don’t see this often, but here’s a letter from 43 lawmakers in both parties — from Gosar and Gaetz to AOC and Bush — urging Biden to receive authorization from Congress before involving US armed forces in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (pix link)" / Twitter

DeFazio, Davidson Lead Bipartisan Letter to Biden Underscoring Congress’s Authority Relating to U.S. involvement in Russia-Ukraine Conflict | Congressman Peter DeFazio
He's from OR-04, my Congressional district.

We strongly urge your administration to respect the separation of powers, U.S. law, and Congress’s constitutional war powers authority. Should your administration seek to introduce U.S. Armed Forces into hostilities or decline to remove any U.S. military personnel currently deployed inside Ukraine from unauthorized hostilities or imminent hostilities, Congress stands ready to deliberate over the potentially monumental implications of such scenarios. The American people, through their representatives in Congress, deserve to have a say before U.S. troops are placed in harm’s way or the U.S. becomes involved in yet another foreign conflict.

The signers:

Barbara Lee, D-CA13, 0.0 -- Eleanor Holmes Norton, D-DC, 0.03 -- Ayanna Pressley, D-MA7, 0.05 -- Jesús G. "Chuy" García, D-IL4, 0.05 -- Pramila Jayapal, D-WA7, 0.07 -- Rashida Tlaib, D-MI13, 0.08 -- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY14, 0.09 -- Earl Blumenauer, D-OR3, 0.1 -- Ilhan Omar, D-MN5, 0.1 -- Raúl M. Grijalva, D-AZ3, 0.11 -- André Carson, D-IN7, 0.12 -- Gwen Moore, D-WI4, 0.13 -- Mark DeSaulnier, D-CA11, 0.14 -- James P. McGovern, D-MA2, 0.15 -- Mark Pocan, D-WI2, 0.17 -- Jared Huffman, D-CA2, 0.21 -- Peter A. DeFazio, D-OR4, 0.27 -- Darren Soto, D-FL9, 0.28 -- John B. Larson, D-CT1, 0.28 -- Lloyd Doggett, D-TX35, 0.29 -- Paul D. Tonko, D-NY20, 0.29 -- Peter Welch, D-VT, 0.29 -- Brad Sherman, D-CA30, 0.34 -- Thomas Massie, R-KY4, 0.52 -- H. Morgan Griffith, R-VA9, 0.63 -- Jeff Fortenberry, R-NE1, 0.66 -- Warren Davidson, R-OH8, 0.66 -- Michael C. Burgess, M.D., R-TX26, 0.68 -- David Schweikert, R-AZ6, 0.7 -- Ben Cline, R-VA6, 0.72 -- Louie Gohmert, R-TX1, 0.75 -- Andy Biggs, R-AZ5, 0.8 -- Bill Posey, R-FL8, 0.86 -- Matt Gaetz, R-FL1, 0.9 -- Alex X. Mooney, R-WV2, 0.92 -- Paul A. Gosar, D.D.S, R-AZ4, 0.92 -- Cori Bush, D-MO1, new -- Jamaal Bowman, Ed.D, D-NY16, new -- Kat Cammack, R-FL3, new -- Matthew Rosendale, Sr., R-MT, new -- Nancy Mace, R-SC1, new -- Peter Meijer, R-MI3, new -- Yvette Herrell, R-NM2, new

With party, district, and 2020 govtrack.us ideology score, when available.

So they go all the way from The Squad to the likes of Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar.

It is nice they want Biden to ask Congress's permission to start WWIII.

 

[ItsRonnieYall]

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Russia's invasion of Ukraine is indefensible. The U.S. is right to impose targeted sanctions on Putin & his oligarchs. We also must work with our allies to prepare for a refugee crisis on a massive scale. Finally, any military action must take place with Congressional approval." / Twitter
noting
Catie Edmondson on Twitter: "You don’t see this often, but here’s a letter from 43 lawmakers in both parties — from Gosar and Gaetz to AOC and Bush — urging Biden to receive authorization from Congress before involving US armed forces in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (pix link)" / Twitter

DeFazio, Davidson Lead Bipartisan Letter to Biden Underscoring Congress’s Authority Relating to U.S. involvement in Russia-Ukraine Conflict | Congressman Peter DeFazio
He's from OR-04, my Congressional district.

We strongly urge your administration to respect the separation of powers, U.S. law, and Congress’s constitutional war powers authority. Should your administration seek to introduce U.S. Armed Forces into hostilities or decline to remove any U.S. military personnel currently deployed inside Ukraine from unauthorized hostilities or imminent hostilities, Congress stands ready to deliberate over the potentially monumental implications of such scenarios. The American people, through their representatives in Congress, deserve to have a say before U.S. troops are placed in harm’s way or the U.S. becomes involved in yet another foreign conflict.

The signers:

Barbara Lee, D-CA13, 0.0 -- Eleanor Holmes Norton, D-DC, 0.03 -- Ayanna Pressley, D-MA7, 0.05 -- Jesús G. "Chuy" García, D-IL4, 0.05 -- Pramila Jayapal, D-WA7, 0.07 -- Rashida Tlaib, D-MI13, 0.08 -- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY14, 0.09 -- Earl Blumenauer, D-OR3, 0.1 -- Ilhan Omar, D-MN5, 0.1 -- Raúl M. Grijalva, D-AZ3, 0.11 -- André Carson, D-IN7, 0.12 -- Gwen Moore, D-WI4, 0.13 -- Mark DeSaulnier, D-CA11, 0.14 -- James P. McGovern, D-MA2, 0.15 -- Mark Pocan, D-WI2, 0.17 -- Jared Huffman, D-CA2, 0.21 -- Peter A. DeFazio, D-OR4, 0.27 -- Darren Soto, D-FL9, 0.28 -- John B. Larson, D-CT1, 0.28 -- Lloyd Doggett, D-TX35, 0.29 -- Paul D. Tonko, D-NY20, 0.29 -- Peter Welch, D-VT, 0.29 -- Brad Sherman, D-CA30, 0.34 -- Thomas Massie, R-KY4, 0.52 -- H. Morgan Griffith, R-VA9, 0.63 -- Jeff Fortenberry, R-NE1, 0.66 -- Warren Davidson, R-OH8, 0.66 -- Michael C. Burgess, M.D., R-TX26, 0.68 -- David Schweikert, R-AZ6, 0.7 -- Ben Cline, R-VA6, 0.72 -- Louie Gohmert, R-TX1, 0.75 -- Andy Biggs, R-AZ5, 0.8 -- Bill Posey, R-FL8, 0.86 -- Matt Gaetz, R-FL1, 0.9 -- Alex X. Mooney, R-WV2, 0.92 -- Paul A. Gosar, D.D.S, R-AZ4, 0.92 -- Cori Bush, D-MO1, new -- Jamaal Bowman, Ed.D, D-NY16, new -- Kat Cammack, R-FL3, new -- Matthew Rosendale, Sr., R-MT, new -- Nancy Mace, R-SC1, new -- Peter Meijer, R-MI3, new -- Yvette Herrell, R-NM2, new

With party, district, and 2020 govtrack.us ideology score, when available.

So they go all the way from The Squad to the likes of Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar.

It is nice they want Biden to ask Congress's permission to start WWIII.

HOLY SHIT... can the effing world governments stop this madness? I can't imagine how the poor Ukrainian people are suffering right now

 

[Gospel]

Russian stocks crash 33% and ruble plunges to record low

Pootey doesn’t care. Why should he? He has already offshored most of what he and his oligarchs have stolen from the Russian people.

The Russian economy is more important than the personal wealth of Putin and his cronies, even if he wishes it were otherwise. People tend to underestimate the power of economic sanctions, but Russian policy has long been aimed at getting even the milquetoast sanctions lifted that were in place in the past. Now the sanctions are going to be a lot more noticeable to ordinary Russians.

I get that... but am mystified as to why the NASDAQ (tech heavy) index is up today.

War is profitable. Doesn't the tech industry have something to gain from war?

 

[Gospel]

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Russia's invasion of Ukraine is indefensible. The U.S. is right to impose targeted sanctions on Putin & his oligarchs. We also must work with our allies to prepare for a refugee crisis on a massive scale. Finally, any military action must take place with Congressional approval." / Twitter
noting
Catie Edmondson on Twitter: "You don’t see this often, but here’s a letter from 43 lawmakers in both parties — from Gosar and Gaetz to AOC and Bush — urging Biden to receive authorization from Congress before involving US armed forces in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (pix link)" / Twitter

DeFazio, Davidson Lead Bipartisan Letter to Biden Underscoring Congress’s Authority Relating to U.S. involvement in Russia-Ukraine Conflict | Congressman Peter DeFazio
He's from OR-04, my Congressional district.

We strongly urge your administration to respect the separation of powers, U.S. law, and Congress’s constitutional war powers authority. Should your administration seek to introduce U.S. Armed Forces into hostilities or decline to remove any U.S. military personnel currently deployed inside Ukraine from unauthorized hostilities or imminent hostilities, Congress stands ready to deliberate over the potentially monumental implications of such scenarios. The American people, through their representatives in Congress, deserve to have a say before U.S. troops are placed in harm’s way or the U.S. becomes involved in yet another foreign conflict.

The signers:

Barbara Lee, D-CA13, 0.0 -- Eleanor Holmes Norton, D-DC, 0.03 -- Ayanna Pressley, D-MA7, 0.05 -- Jesús G. "Chuy" García, D-IL4, 0.05 -- Pramila Jayapal, D-WA7, 0.07 -- Rashida Tlaib, D-MI13, 0.08 -- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY14, 0.09 -- Earl Blumenauer, D-OR3, 0.1 -- Ilhan Omar, D-MN5, 0.1 -- Raúl M. Grijalva, D-AZ3, 0.11 -- André Carson, D-IN7, 0.12 -- Gwen Moore, D-WI4, 0.13 -- Mark DeSaulnier, D-CA11, 0.14 -- James P. McGovern, D-MA2, 0.15 -- Mark Pocan, D-WI2, 0.17 -- Jared Huffman, D-CA2, 0.21 -- Peter A. DeFazio, D-OR4, 0.27 -- Darren Soto, D-FL9, 0.28 -- John B. Larson, D-CT1, 0.28 -- Lloyd Doggett, D-TX35, 0.29 -- Paul D. Tonko, D-NY20, 0.29 -- Peter Welch, D-VT, 0.29 -- Brad Sherman, D-CA30, 0.34 -- Thomas Massie, R-KY4, 0.52 -- H. Morgan Griffith, R-VA9, 0.63 -- Jeff Fortenberry, R-NE1, 0.66 -- Warren Davidson, R-OH8, 0.66 -- Michael C. Burgess, M.D., R-TX26, 0.68 -- David Schweikert, R-AZ6, 0.7 -- Ben Cline, R-VA6, 0.72 -- Louie Gohmert, R-TX1, 0.75 -- Andy Biggs, R-AZ5, 0.8 -- Bill Posey, R-FL8, 0.86 -- Matt Gaetz, R-FL1, 0.9 -- Alex X. Mooney, R-WV2, 0.92 -- Paul A. Gosar, D.D.S, R-AZ4, 0.92 -- Cori Bush, D-MO1, new -- Jamaal Bowman, Ed.D, D-NY16, new -- Kat Cammack, R-FL3, new -- Matthew Rosendale, Sr., R-MT, new -- Nancy Mace, R-SC1, new -- Peter Meijer, R-MI3, new -- Yvette Herrell, R-NM2, new

With party, district, and 2020 govtrack.us ideology score, when available.

So they go all the way from The Squad to the likes of Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar.

It is nice they want Biden to ask Congress's permission to start WWIII.

HOLY SHIT... can the effing world governments stop this madness? I can't imagine how the poor Ukrainian people are suffering right now

Probably not until after their brokers/donors secure a return on their investments.

 

[Elixir]

War is profitable. Doesn't the tech industry have something to gain from war?

That should have been “baked in” to todays pricing. Not sure that enough American (or NASDAQ listed) war hardware manufacturers are going to incrementally increase their sales to Ukraine to move the needle anyhow.
Now the SPX is up .7% today as well, and NASDAQ is booming; up more than 3% at the moment. There’s more to it than “war is good for business” (which it may or may not be).

 

[southernhybrid]

Well, let's hope sanctions hit hard. Hard enough to get the Russian people pissed at this asshole. I see the ruble is at an all time low. Hopefully it tanks after Biden speaks. Russians need to call for Putin's head.

One of the guests on MSNBC recently said that the sanctions on Russia could take years to make a difference due to the size of the Russian economy. I hope he's wrong, but I'm not an economist and I know very little about the Russian economy.

Does anyone with a lot of knowledge on this subject, have an opinion?

 

[skepticalbip]

I am still bothered that I haven't heard any serious reaction from the E.U.

Well, let's hope sanctions hit hard. Hard enough to get the Russian people pissed at this asshole. I see the ruble is at an all time low. Hopefully it tanks after Biden speaks. Russians need to call for Putin's head.

One of the guests on MSNBC recently said that the sanctions on Russia could take years to make a difference due to the size of the Russian economy. I hope he's wrong, but I'm not an economist and I know very little about the Russian economy.

Does anyone with a lot of knowledge on this subject, have an opinion?

I don't have "a lot of knowledge on this subject" but I haven't seen anything that would have an immediate effect on Russian economy. Closing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline does nothing since it was not yet open and hasn't yet began to pump any gas into Europe. At most it means that it would limit future expansion of gas income to Russia (but only if the sanctions aren't removed again like they were last month). Now If they had closed the Nord Stream 1 pipeline there would be immediate effect on Russian economy. That pipeline is pumping something like 50 billion cubic yards of natural gas/year into Europe. That amounts to a hell of a lot of Rubles/year for Russia. Closing the oil pipelines from Russia into Europe would also have a massive effect.

 

[TSwizzle]

I am still bothered that I haven't heard any serious reaction from the E.U.

As far as I can tell, Sweden surrendered a few weeks ago, then Italy, quickly followed by France.

But don't expect anything more than a #IstandWithUkraine tweets.

 

[laughing dog]

Russia has begun arresting anti-war protesters as demonstrations break out after Putin invades Ukraine

Hundreds have already been detained in demonstrations in Russian cities following the Russia's military assault on Ukraine on Thursday.

www.businessinsider.com

Besides reinvigorating and strengthening NATO, Putin has now managed to give new life to the pro-democracy movement within Russia.

A domestic benefit is that it exposes the morally bankruptcy of a significant portion of the conservative media and of the Republican party who are parroting the Russian propaganda just in an attempt to criticize Biden.

 

[crazyfingers]

That should have been “baked in” to todays pricing.

Yup. Today's nearly final numbers


What this means is that the market has been anticipating this for weeks. It's clear the market has been on a losing streak for quite a while in anticipation that Putin would start a war. A lot of the main concerns were already baked into the values.

More surprising, or perhaps expected, is that the Russian market dropped so much in one day. A one day loss on the order of 35% suggests that they were caught completely surprised. It shows how little truth comes out of State Controlled Russian media for this to be a surprise to the Russian stock market.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

That should have been “baked in” to todays pricing.

Yup. Today's nearly final numbers

View attachment 37387
What this means is that the market has been anticipating this for weeks. It's clear the market has been on a losing streak for quite a while in anticipation that Putin would start a war. A lot of the main concerns were already baked into the values.

More surprising, or perhaps expected, is that the Russian market dropped so much in one day. A one day loss on the order of 35% suggests that they were caught completely surprised. It shows how little truth comes out of State Controlled Russian media for this to be a surprise to the Russian stock market.

barbos was saying Russia wouldn't invade. Personally, I was thinking they'd go into their new annex'd territory, not shell the airports in Ukraine and occupy Chernobyl.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I am still bothered that I haven't heard any serious reaction from the E.U.

Well, let's hope sanctions hit hard. Hard enough to get the Russian people pissed at this asshole. I see the ruble is at an all time low. Hopefully it tanks after Biden speaks. Russians need to call for Putin's head.

One of the guests on MSNBC recently said that the sanctions on Russia could take years to make a difference due to the size of the Russian economy. I hope he's wrong, but I'm not an economist and I know very little about the Russian economy.

Does anyone with a lot of knowledge on this subject, have an opinion?

I don't have "a lot of knowledge on this subject" but I haven't seen anything that would have an immediate effect on Russian economy. Closing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline does nothing since it was not yet open and hasn't yet began to pump any gas into Europe. At most it means that it would limit future expansion of gas income to Russia (but only if the sanctions aren't removed again like they were last month). Now If they had closed the Nord Stream 1 pipeline there would be immediate effect on Russian economy. That pipeline is pumping something like 50 billion cubic yards of natural gas/year into Europe. That amounts to a hell of a lot of Rubles/year for Russia. Closing the oil pipelines from Russia into Europe would also have a massive effect.

Maybe Russia wanted in before the US could export enough LNG to Europe. We're up to 22 billion cubic meters, which is slightly larger than a cubic yard.

 

[Hermit]

Well, let's hope sanctions hit hard. Hard enough to get the Russian people pissed at this asshole. I see the ruble is at an all time low. Hopefully it tanks after Biden speaks. Russians need to call for Putin's head.

One of the guests on MSNBC recently said that the sanctions on Russia could take years to make a difference due to the size of the Russian economy. I hope he's wrong, but I'm not an economist and I know very little about the Russian economy.

Does anyone with a lot of knowledge on this subject, have an opinion?

Russia's annual GDP is smaller than Canada's.

 

[crazyfingers]

That should have been “baked in” to todays pricing.

Yup. Today's nearly final numbers

View attachment 37387
What this means is that the market has been anticipating this for weeks. It's clear the market has been on a losing streak for quite a while in anticipation that Putin would start a war. A lot of the main concerns were already baked into the values.

More surprising, or perhaps expected, is that the Russian market dropped so much in one day. A one day loss on the order of 35% suggests that they were caught completely surprised. It shows how little truth comes out of State Controlled Russian media for this to be a surprise to the Russian stock market.

barbos was saying Russia wouldn't invade. Personally, I was thinking they'd go into their new annex'd territory, not shell the airports in Ukraine and occupy Chernobyl.

Yup. No one trading in the US markets knew for sure how bad it would be and we still don't know. But clearly the market already expected something really bad and that has been in the numbers for weeks. And despite the rise in US stocks today I'd be shocked if tomorrow wasn't a red day. The market is not just cold calculation but also emotions.

Again though, for the Russian market to be surprised by this is incredibly revealing.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

That should have been “baked in” to todays pricing.

Yup. Today's nearly final numbers

View attachment 37387
What this means is that the market has been anticipating this for weeks. It's clear the market has been on a losing streak for quite a while in anticipation that Putin would start a war. A lot of the main concerns were already baked into the values.

More surprising, or perhaps expected, is that the Russian market dropped so much in one day. A one day loss on the order of 35% suggests that they were caught completely surprised. It shows how little truth comes out of State Controlled Russian media for this to be a surprise to the Russian stock market.

barbos was saying Russia wouldn't invade. Personally, I was thinking they'd go into their new annex'd territory, not shell the airports in Ukraine and occupy Chernobyl.

Yup. No one trading in the US markets knew for sure how bad it would be and we still don't know. But clearly the market already expected something really bad and that has been in the numbers for weeks. And despite the rise in US stocks today I'd be shocked if tomorrow wasn't a red day. The market is not just cold calculation but also emotions.

Again though, for the Russian market to be surprised by this is incredibly revealing.

Especially for it to crash. Not the reaction Putin probably was wanting.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Meanwhile, President Biden speaks to America about his involvement in the Persian Wars back in ~600 BCE and tells Americans to keep perspective and not over-react.

 

[Elixir]

despite the rise in US stocks today I'd be shocked if tomorrow wasn't a red day

Agreed. Events of the day do NOT put any limit on how bad it can get, but apparently there’s a consensus that it won’t be as bad as the worst that has long been anticipated.
Russia suspended short selling… the oligarchs must already have placed their bets against the ruble and the Russian markets.

 

[lpetrich]

About Trump's Russia-loving, it's remarkable how far back it goes.

2016 RNC Delegate: Trump Directed Change To Party Platform On Ukraine Support : NPR

President Trump may have been involved with a change to the Republican Party campaign platform last year that watered down support for U.S. assistance to Ukraine, according to new information from someone who was involved.

Diana Denman, a Republican delegate who supported arming U.S. allies in Ukraine, has told people that Trump aide J.D. Gordon said at the Republican Convention in 2016 that Trump directed him to support weakening that position in the official platform.

Ultimately, the softer position was adopted.

Also,
Trump campaign guts GOP’s anti-Russia stance on Ukraine - The Washington Post

The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington.

Throughout the campaign, Trump has been dismissive of calls for supporting the Ukraine government as it fights an ongoing Russian-led intervention. Trump’s campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, worked as a lobbyist for the Russian-backed former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych for more than a decade.

Still, Republican delegates at last week’s national security committee platform meeting in Cleveland were surprised when the Trump campaign orchestrated a set of events to make sure that the GOP would not pledge to give Ukraine the weapons it has been asking for from the United States.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

How is that remarkable? That was one of the very odd things about his campaign (even at the time before things started inadvertently coming up on Intelligence Radars home and abroad), when it went from a Campaign of dumpster fire and Trumpism to Pro-Russia... when no one was talking about Russia. If memory serves, Manafort had just become his Campaign Advisor *cough*. It is also one of the issues with Trump's relationship with Putin... or to say, Putin's influence over Trump. It was just so out of the blue.

I did notice Putin using Trump-speak, similar to that Trump used regarding North Korea before his bromance with Kim. A lot of hyperbole regarding if anyone interfered with their interference/shelling of Ukraine.

...tries to interfere with us, and even more so to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never experienced in your history.

Deja vu.

Though it is funny. Because this is fucking Europe. Great War, WWII, black death... got some history there. So pretty much all Putin can do that hasn't been done is nuke Europe. And that fallout would be an issue, so umm...

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And piece of Poland they got BEFORE the war,

I had a Russian girlfriend in the 90s. She was taught that the Second World War began on June 22, 1941. That was interesting.

And I thought my wife had it bad not being taught about Hiroshima and Nagasaki.