How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

Matthew Luxmoore on Twitter: "People marching through central Moscow this evening chanting “No to War!” (vid link)" / Twitter (Nyet voine!)

Matthew Luxmoore on Twitter: "Multiple arrests in central Moscow this afternoon as people come out with posters reading “No to War!” The central Pushkin Square has now been blocked off by police. (vid l ink)" / Twitter

Russia Used Beatings and Tricks to Forcibly Send Soldiers to Ukraine, Human Rights Group Says

Russian soldiers from all across the country were deceived into heading to the Ukrainian border, and some were beaten if they resisted, according to the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers, a Russian non-governmental organization that works to expose human rights violations within the military.

The group is reportedly preparing a complaint for the Chief Military Prosecutor’s Office alleging that their sons only recently joined the military as conscripts and were told they were going to the border with Ukraine for drills. But their statuses were then abruptly changed to contract soldiers— a role for those with more combat and training experience—and they were suddenly thrust into war.

 

[lpetrich]

Trump immediately botches what’s happening in Ukraine - The Washington Post

Trump opted to appear on Fox News Channel on Wednesday night shortly after Russia announced that it would attack Ukraine. And not for the first time, he seemed woefully unfamiliar with the particulars of an issue of massive import. Trump at one point seemed to think that the United States had suddenly decided to go to war with Russia.

Midway through the interview, Laura Ingraham noted that “we are just learning that U.S. officials are looking at a potential amphibious landing now in Odessa, Ukraine.” The clear implication was that this was Russia engaging in the potential amphibious landing as part of its attack, but Trump took it as the United States itself “looking at” such an action.

...
“Well, I think the whole thing, again, would have never happened. It shouldn’t happen. And it’s a very sad thing,” Trump said. “But you know what is also very dangerous is, you told me about the amphibious attack by Americans, because you and everyone else shouldn’t know about it. They should do that secretly, not being doing that through the great Laura Ingraham. They should be doing that secretly. Nobody should know that, Laura.”

Ingraham quickly cut in and emphasized that this wasn’t, in fact, what Fox was reporting.

“No, those are the Russian — the Russian amphibious landing,” Ingraham said.

Oh, I thought you said we were sending people in,” Trump said.

“No, I did not. No, no. No, no, no,” Ingraham replied. “That would be news.”

Trump has seemed out of the loop about other big issuesr: Trump's errors on Puerto Rico, hurricanes, Alabama senate and Mnuchin and Price - The Washington Post -- Trump’s clueless comment about coronavirus testing problems - The Washington Post -- Trump just keeps botching how Congress and the Constitution work - The Washington Post -- Trump’s apparent ignorance of basic political terms is on full display overseas - The Washington Post

 

[SigmatheZeta]

This could potentially turn out to be an interesting case study in asymmetric warfare. After what I saw of the Euromaidan protests, I wonder how that is going to translate into how Ukrainians ultimately deal with the events currently unfolding.

 

[lpetrich]

On Ukraine, Republicans are united on criticizing Biden but not on how to counter Russian threat - The Washington Post
For either not doing enough or doing too much.

There were more army tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re going to keep peace all right. No, but think of it, here’s a guy who’s very savvy,” Trump said during an interview Tuesday with a conservative news outlet, praising Putin’s moves and suggesting the Russian troops would serve as peacekeepers.

In recent weeks, as the crisis built up, former secretary of state Mike Pompeo offered similar praise for Putin’s strategic thinking. “We shouldn’t treat him as the JV,” Pompeo said in a late January radio interview on Fox News. “He is a credible, capable statesman. And that’s why the mistake of not putting deterrence in place over the last year has led to this moment that we’re suffering from today.”

On Monday night, as Russians moved into the separatist Ukraine regions, Pompeo clarified that Putin was “the aggressor” and the Ukrainians were his victims.

...
One long-shot GOP candidate for a House seat from New York followed Trump’s lead by praising Putin for protecting “the church, tradition and Russian culture” better than Western governments protect these institutions. Another Senate candidate, the author J.D. Vance, has spent several days trying to rev up his struggling campaign in Ohio by engaging in tweet wars with a four-star general who retired more than 25 years ago and went on to become a deep critic of Trump’s foreign policy.

“What’s happening in Ukraine has nothing to do with our national security, but it is distracting our idiot ‘leaders’ from focusing on the things that actually do matter to our national security, like securing the border & stopping the flow of Fentanyl that’s killing American kids,” he tweeted Monday.

On the other side,

Within hours, however, those GOP hawks sharpened their critiques of the Biden administration’s handling of the situation. At a luncheon in Kentucky, McConnell blamed the president’s handling of the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan for showing weakness on the global stage, prompting Putin to test the United States.

“I don’t believe Vladimir Putin would have a couple hundred thousand troops on the border of Ukraine had we not precipitously withdrawn from Afghanistan last August, but that’s where we are,” McConnell said.

And Graham, who has remained a Trump ally despite decades of traditional GOP orthodoxy on foreign policy, faulted Biden on Tuesday for not moving quicker to defend Ukraine and other Eastern European nations despite his claims during the 2020 election that Russia preferred Trump remaining in office.

“You said a couple years ago that Putin did not want you to win because you’re the only person that could go toe-to-toe with him. Well right now, Mr. President, you’re playing footsie with Putin. He’s walking all over you,” Graham told reporters in South Carolina.

According to this "weakness" argument, Putin would have invaded Ukraine under Trump's Presidency, and he would have counted on Trump approving his actions.

 

[skepticalbip]

This could potentially turn out to be an interesting case study in asymmetric warfare. After what I saw of the Euromaidan protests, I wonder how that is going to translate into how Ukrainians ultimately deal with the events currently unfolding.

The problem with protests is that they rely on the power being protested against to not see the massed protesters as an opportunity to eliminate dissent with machine gun fire. How would the Russian army see the protesters?

 

[Elixir]

This could potentially turn out to be an interesting case study in asymmetric warfare. After what I saw of the Euromaidan protests, I wonder how that is going to translate into how Ukrainians ultimately deal with the events currently unfolding.

The problem with protests is that they rely on the power being protested against to not see the massed protesters as an opportunity to eliminate dissent with machine gun fire.

Don't worry! Later this year, the GQP will rig the election and in January 2025 Trump will make sure that's an option.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

...tries to interfere with us, and even more so to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never experienced in your history.

Deja vu.

Though it is funny. Because this is fucking Europe. Great War, WWII, black death... got some history there. So pretty much all Putin can do that hasn't been done is nuke Europe. And that fallout would be an issue, so umm...

Kamala's recent talk with the Europeans apparently made the same assumption as Putin, that Europeans couldn't possibly understand how bad a war in Europe would be. She spent much of her talk explaining to them that they have had 70 years of peace so couldn't imagine how bad a war was.

There is some truth to that, but best coming from someone that saw it.

Yes there is some truth to it but I am pretty sure that the Europeans she was "explaining" it to were every bit as aware, if not more aware, of it than she is. Some of them likely remember the destroyed cities they played in as children even if they didn't remember the war itself. All of them likely grew up hearing stories of the war and the misery from their parents and grandparents.

Yes, that is what I said.

 

[lpetrich]

Ron Filipkowski on Twitter: "OH Senate candidate JD Vance: “I think it’s ridiculous that we are focused on this border in Ukraine. I got to be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.” (vid link)" / Twitter
then
Luke Zaleski on Twitter: "@RonFilipkowski Watch how fast republicans blame Biden and not Putin for Putin attacking Ukraine. ..." / Twitter

Watch how fast republicans blame Biden and not Putin for Putin attacking Ukraine. That’s the tell they’re traitors. But no collusion. No incitement. No abuse of power or obstruction. Nope. Trumpers just love what Putin’s up to and blame the duly elected American president for it. If Trump could personally keep Putin from invading Ukraine as he’s now lying and pretending he did when he was in office (thanks to Putin) why can’t he just talk him down now? Putin was so afraid of Trump he stood down? As trump undermined NATO? And gave him everything he wanted?

Then
John McCormack on Twitter: "5 days ago, J.D. Vance said: "I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another." (tweet link)

Now, he's issued a long statement about how much he cares and how it's all the fault of the elites. (pic link)" / Twitter
then
Jackie Kucinich on Twitter: "Sounds like someone found out about the 80K or so Ukrainians who live in Ohio." / Twitter

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

On Ukraine, Republicans are united on criticizing Biden but not on how to counter Russian threat - The Washington Post
For either not doing enough or doing too much.

There were more army tanks than I’ve ever seen. They’re going to keep peace all right. No, but think of it, here’s a guy who’s very savvy,” Trump said during an interview Tuesday with a conservative news outlet, praising Putin’s moves and suggesting the Russian troops would serve as peacekeepers.

In recent weeks, as the crisis built up, former secretary of state Mike Pompeo offered similar praise for Putin’s strategic thinking. “We shouldn’t treat him as the JV,” Pompeo said in a late January radio interview on Fox News. “He is a credible, capable statesman. And that’s why the mistake of not putting deterrence in place over the last year has led to this moment that we’re suffering from today.”

On Monday night, as Russians moved into the separatist Ukraine regions, Pompeo clarified that Putin was “the aggressor” and the Ukrainians were his victims.

...
One long-shot GOP candidate for a House seat from New York followed Trump’s lead by praising Putin for protecting “the church, tradition and Russian culture” better than Western governments protect these institutions. Another Senate candidate, the author J.D. Vance, has spent several days trying to rev up his struggling campaign in Ohio by engaging in tweet wars with a four-star general who retired more than 25 years ago and went on to become a deep critic of Trump’s foreign policy.

“What’s happening in Ukraine has nothing to do with our national security, but it is distracting our idiot ‘leaders’ from focusing on the things that actually do matter to our national security, like securing the border & stopping the flow of Fentanyl that’s killing American kids,” he tweeted Monday.

On the other side,

Within hours, however, those GOP hawks sharpened their critiques of the Biden administration’s handling of the situation. At a luncheon in Kentucky, McConnell blamed the president’s handling of the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan for showing weakness on the global stage, prompting Putin to test the United States.

“I don’t believe Vladimir Putin would have a couple hundred thousand troops on the border of Ukraine had we not precipitously withdrawn from Afghanistan last August, but that’s where we are,” McConnell said.

And Graham, who has remained a Trump ally despite decades of traditional GOP orthodoxy on foreign policy, faulted Biden on Tuesday for not moving quicker to defend Ukraine and other Eastern European nations despite his claims during the 2020 election that Russia preferred Trump remaining in office.

“You said a couple years ago that Putin did not want you to win because you’re the only person that could go toe-to-toe with him. Well right now, Mr. President, you’re playing footsie with Putin. He’s walking all over you,” Graham told reporters in South Carolina.

According to this "weakness" argument, Putin would have invaded Ukraine under Trump's Presidency, and he would have counted on Trump approving his actions.

Well he did have Trump interfere on an defense arms deal with Ukraine. Leave a couple treaties.

 

[SigmatheZeta]

This could potentially turn out to be an interesting case study in asymmetric warfare. After what I saw of the Euromaidan protests, I wonder how that is going to translate into how Ukrainians ultimately deal with the events currently unfolding.

The problem with protests is that they rely on the power being protested against to not see the massed protesters as an opportunity to eliminate dissent with machine gun fire. How would the Russian army see the protesters?

I doubt they are naive enough to just walk out in front of machine guns. I think that the Ukrainian government might have given them at least some degree of training in guerilla warfare, and by now, there are just enough veterans from the conflict in eastern Ukraine that the more competent of them could conceivably recruit, train, and lead an organized guerilla campaign. Euromaidan showed that they should have no serious shortage of volunteers.

 

[barbos]

Ukraine is enacting genocide against Russians. There won't be an insurgency, we'll be welcomed with flowers.

Well, you place bunch of nazis with artillery at the border of Donetsk/Lugansk and this is what is gonna happen. And Ukrainian Government is complicit in that.

The only fire landing on Russian interests was fired by Russians.

Says who?

 

[barbos]

You people keep dodging my posts and keep going in circles repeating the same garbage over and over. I am getting more and more convinced that "invasion" was a right desision.

 

[bilby]

...tries to interfere with us, and even more so to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never experienced in your history.

Deja vu.

Though it is funny. Because this is fucking Europe. Great War, WWII, black death... got some history there. So pretty much all Putin can do that hasn't been done is nuke Europe. And that fallout would be an issue, so umm...

Kamala's recent talk with the Europeans apparently made the same assumption as Putin, that Europeans couldn't possibly understand how bad a war in Europe would be. She spent much of her talk explaining to them that they have had 70 years of peace so couldn't imagine how bad a war was.

There is some truth to that, but best coming from someone that saw it.

Yes there is some truth to it but I am pretty sure that the Europeans she was "explaining" it to were every bit as aware, if not more aware, of it than she is. Some of them likely remember the destroyed cities they played in as children even if they didn't remember the war itself. All of them likely grew up hearing stories of the war and the misery from their parents and grandparents.

My dad was born in 1937, and lived in South East London during the war. On VE Day he was so astonished by the street lighting that he ran into a lamppost and broke his collarbone. At eight years of age, he had no recollection of ever seeing any outdoor illumination other than searchlights and burning buildings.

Wartime rationing didn't end until he was an adult. And while shortages were pretty severe in the UK throughout the war, they were far worse, and had a far greater effect, in the rest of Europe.

Add to that the fact that most European cities were far more severely damaged than UK cities (except Coventry, which suffered a similar level of damage to that sustained by pretty much every German city).

Nobody in Europe who has ever had the opportunity to talk to my parents and/or grandparents generation about the war has any excuse to be unaware of how bad it was. And anyone who went to school in Europe has heard first-hand accounts.

Americans were, by comparison with Europeans, barely touched by WWII; American civilians even less so.

 

[lpetrich]

The GOP’s vague ‘Biden is weak’ attack about Ukraine - The Washington Post

But one criticism stands out, not just for how widely it’s used but also how vague it is: Biden’s weakness led Russia to attack.

“Biden doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing,” former president Donald Trump said on Laura Ingraham’s Fox News show Tuesday night.

“If Donald Trump were president, none of this crap would be going on,” Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) said on Wednesday on Fox News, “because you got to be strong. When you’re weak is when everything falls apart. And Biden is weak, and Trump was strong.”

Then describing what a Russia-lover and Putin-lover Trump was. "Praising Trump for being strong on Russia ignores the fact that Trump was arguably the most lenient U.S. president toward Russia in modern times..."

But setting aside the holes in their argument about Trump being strong on Russia, these Republicans rarely explain what, exactly, it is that Biden has done to come across as weak on Russia. Equally, they don’t say what Trump would do differently.

Trump and his supporters praise Putin and dismiss Biden as crisis unfolds - The Washington Post - "A vocal group of right-leaning figures admires the Russian president for what they depict as his strength and shrewdness, while disdaining a U.S. president they dismiss as weak"

Conservative commentator Candace Owens tweeted this week: “I suggest every American who wants to know what’s *actually* going on in Russia and Ukraine, read this transcript of Putin’s address. As I’ve said for month — NATO (under direction from the United States) is violating previous agreements and expanding eastward. WE are at fault.”

Fox News host Tucker Carlson, like many others on the right, minimized Russia’s move to invade and overpower a neighboring country as a “border conflict” that should not concern Americans.

“It may be worth asking yourself, since it is getting pretty serious: ‘What is this really about? Why do I hate Putin so much?’” Carlson said Tuesday. “‘Has Putin ever called me a racist? Has he threatened to get me fired for disagreeing with him?’”

I marvel when I see stuff like this, because I remember what their predecessors thought about the Soviet Union during the Cold War. It was the Evil Empire, the great enemy, and anything less than an eagerness to start World War III was intolerable weakness. I remember Phyllis Schlafly disparaging some people as "pacifist" and "Russia-loving".

 

[Copernicus]

The basic argument by Putin and our own local Putin apologist is that this is all basically because NATO has been moving eastward--up to Russia's border--by enticing and bribing countries to join. And much of the western press has run with that argument, saying "well, yeah, that's true, but..." The reality is actually quite different. All of those neighboring Eastern European nations have been cozying up to the West and NATO to get away from the threat of Russian expansionism. They can't move their borders, but they can move towards the West for protection. Ukraine and Georgia never got allowed in. That's what bothers the Russians--the rush of Eastern Europe to get into the EU and NATO. As far away from the Russian threat as possible.

 

[Derec]

One of the big mistakes for Europe was that they continued to make themselves more and more dependent on Russian gas.

Europe has rejected fracking as an option to make themselves more energy independent. And Germany has not only been pushing NorthStream 2 for years, but has also stubbornly held onto the idiotic "Atomausstieg", i.e. shutting down nuclear power plants, which of course means they have to use more gas.

 

[Derec]

Lpetrich, just because Trump was bad does not make Biden strong on Russia. Sanctions are weak sauce in light of the massive invasion we are witnessing. There needs to be stronger measures, such as air support.

US has been weak on Russia for a decade and a half. When Putin invaded Georgia, Bush let him. When he invaded Korea Crimea and made himself comfortable in Syria, Obama/Biden let him. That appeasement only emboldened him.

 

[skepticalbip]

This could potentially turn out to be an interesting case study in asymmetric warfare. After what I saw of the Euromaidan protests, I wonder how that is going to translate into how Ukrainians ultimately deal with the events currently unfolding.

The problem with protests is that they rely on the power being protested against to not see the massed protesters as an opportunity to eliminate dissent with machine gun fire. How would the Russian army see the protesters?

I doubt they are naive enough to just walk out in front of machine guns. I think that the Ukrainian government might have given them at least some degree of training in guerilla warfare, and by now, there are just enough veterans from the conflict in eastern Ukraine that the more competent of them could conceivably recruit, train, and lead an organized guerilla campaign. Euromaidan showed that they should have no serious shortage of volunteers.

AHA, I read it as something similar to the Euromaidan protests would be effective. My error.

A guerilla campaign will most likely arise but it is much easier to draw a crowd for a demonstration than recruit fighters that knowingly risk their lives. So the numbers are unlikely to be anywhere close to those in the Euromaidan protests. You are suggesting something like the mujahideen which is likely.

 

[skepticalbip]

You people keep dodging my posts and keep going in circles repeating the same garbage over and over. I am getting more and more convinced that "invasion" was a right desision.

Putin's argument is hard to make sense of. "Ukrainians are our Russian brothers so it is Russia's duty to kill them."

 

[bilby]

One of the big mistakes for Europe was that they continued to make themselves more and more dependent on Russian gas.

Europe has rejected fracking as an option to make themselves more energy independent. And Germany has not only been pushing NorthStream 2 for years, but has also stubbornly held onto the idiotic "Atomausstieg", i.e. shutting down nuclear power plants, which of course means they have to use more gas.