How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TV and credit cards]

Well, let's hope sanctions hit hard. Hard enough to get the Russian people pissed at this asshole

So far Russian people are not impressed.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/24/battle-underway-for-airbase-on-kyiv-outskirts-a76573

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Barbos would be totally ok with that. Just like Putin’s good little boy.

Do you mean Taiwan?
No, I won't be OK with it. But legally speaking Big China have a point.
On the other hand, Taiwan has a right to a de-facto self-determination.
Basically too much time has passed since the split and it is too late for getting it back.

Taiwan is an established nation now.

So is Ukraine.

Debatable.

Not to the UN. And that is how this stuff gets done these days. Not this 19th century bullshit.

 

[Toni]

Barbos would be totally ok with that. Just like Putin’s good little boy.

Do you mean Taiwan?
No, I won't be OK with it. But legally speaking Big China have a point.
On the other hand, Taiwan has a right to a de-facto self-determination.
Basically too much time has passed since the split and it is too late for getting it back.

Taiwan is an established nation now.

So is Ukraine.

Debatable.

Putin has confirmed just that by invading Ukraine.

 

[ZiprHead]

Russia has begun arresting anti-war protesters as demonstrations break out after Putin invades Ukraine

Hundreds have already been detained in demonstrations in Russian cities following the Russia's military assault on Ukraine on Thursday.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The Russian orthodox church has been playing some games with Putin. In 2018, the patriarch of Constantinople granted autonomy to the orthodox Church of Ukraine. The Orthodox Church of Moscow has been dreaming of dominating Orthodox Christianity so this was a great slap in the face. And more evidence Ukraine was slipping out of the Russian cultural orbit. This did not sit well with Putin at all.

 

[ZiprHead]

Barbos would be totally ok with that. Just like Putin’s good little boy.

Do you mean Taiwan?
No, I won't be OK with it. But legally speaking Big China have a point.
On the other hand, Taiwan has a right to a de-facto self-determination.
Basically too much time has passed since the split and it is too late for getting it back.

Taiwan is an established nation now.

So is Ukraine.

Debatable.

No.

 

[Elixir]

barbos isn't stupid.

You ignored the "special kind" part.
Obviously Pootey isn't going to let some certified moron do his dirty work. But whoever does, is going to have their gray matter appropriately softened up.

Russia has begun arresting anti-war protesters as demonstrations break out after Putin invades Ukraine

Hundreds have already been detained in demonstrations in Russian cities following the Russia's military assault on Ukraine on Thursday.

www.businessinsider.com

Pootey's true Nazi colors starting to show again.

So far Russian people are not impressed.

Did you interview them from their jail cells?

 

[Copernicus]

Russia has begun arresting anti-war protesters as demonstrations break out after Putin invades Ukraine

Hundreds have already been detained in demonstrations in Russian cities following the Russia's military assault on Ukraine on Thursday.

www.businessinsider.com

Besides reinvigorating and strengthening NATO, Putin has now managed to give new life to the pro-democracy movement within Russia.

 

[Jayjay]

Have been watching CNN and on one of the short excerpt they showed a house with gas pipeline burning, saying it was result of russian "separatists" shelling Ukraine controlled territory.
.....

Then clicked on some russian news about this latest escalation. Guess what I see there? Yep, the full version of that video which clearly shows "separatists" in clearly marked uniform storming that house. The Text explains - ukrainian millitary were caught on separatist controlled territory and were returning fire from that house.

Need to double check if it's the same house/video.

OK, false alarm, different houses. But Ukrainians did invade "separatist" controlled land.

Why the fuck would Ukranian forces attack into Eastern Ukraine today? Use some common sense. There are a 150,00 blood thirsty soldiers on their border just itching for an excuse. Many Ukrainians are still training with wooden rifles. Why would Ukraine want war right now? Who benefits in a war right now?

I explained why in one the previous posts. Basically the same reason Georgians attacked Russia.

I'm thinking that it's very possible that you don't understand military options. Consider this, why would Ukrainians wait to attack until 150,000 Russians had assembled on their border? If they really are this stupid, then why not wait to attack for a couple weeks when the ground is muddy from the spring thaw?

Perhaps it is you who does not understand. Georgia is a 4 mil people country. Yet they choose to effectively attack Russia. So why would they do that?

Yes yes. I know all about that. Those crafty chess masters in Russia seed discord in their bordering countries. Create chaos. Then when the country sends in troops to stop the rebellion, Mother Russia invades to save the day. But separate question. And you need to focus here. Why would Ukraine begin shelling/invading/marauding into Eastern Ukraine now? Why wait to commit these meannie acts now when there are 150,000 Russian troops directly on their border itching for a fight. Why wouldn't the Ukranian Barbarians wait to launch their mean attacks for 2 or 3 weeks so that the ground would soften, making it more difficult for supply lines for the Russian military?

Because they know Russia is not going to invade.
So, why did democratic Georgia invaded non-democratic Russia?

Now that Russia actually has invaded, it seems that the sub-human barbarian hordes of Ukrainian neo-nazis did not "know" Putin's 5-D chess moves as well as you thought. Or maybe they were , like Harry pointed out, just completely at Putin's mercy.

And of course, here in the real world, Georgia never attacked Russia.

 

[Elixir]

Putin has now managed to give new life to the pro-democracy movement within Russia.

Is it time to start treating Pootey as we would treat any other individual who is a danger to himself as well as others (I.e. an insane person)?

Georgia never attacked Russia.

And NATO never attacked Ukraine.
Imaginary enemies are the lifeblood of paranoid despots.

 

[Elixir]

Russian stocks crash 33% and ruble plunges to record low

Pootey doesn’t care. Why should he? He has already offshored most of what he and his oligarchs have stolen from the Russian people.

 

[Jayjay]

I'd say the big difference is Russia ain't going for European dominance like Hitler did.

Does anyone really know what Putin's ultimate goals really are? We can only guess by his actions. Those are that he has taken Georgia then Crimea and now appears set to take at least part of Ukraine, if not all of it.

Have you been ignoring everyone of barbos' posts? Putin wants a buffer. Russia is a paranoid nation due to not getting over the Crimean War, among other things.

Russia's oil and gas would be targeted and immediately done away with.

I don't understand what is meant by this bit.

That'd be the 'Russia is never invading Europe' reason. I mentioned it because you juxtapositioned Hitler, who very much wanted all of Europe.

I don't think Hitler wanted all of Europe. The countries to the west and North he occupied just to keep them from fighting back. The long term goal for them could've been loyal puppet states. But his real grand plan was to the East, to cleanse the land of slavic sub-human races and replace them with Germans, thus creating a German superstate to rival the USA.

Putin's motivation regarding Ukraine seems to be closer to latter, though instead of exterminating Ukrainians he'll just let them leave.

 

[Elixir]

Hmm.
While Russian equities lose their shit, I noticed this :

 

[Swammerdami]

It is most peaceful and reasonable to agree that borders that have been in place for over half a century should be left as they are. The only exceptions should be legitimate crises, not manufactured crises like Hitler's Sudetenland or Putin's crimes in Eastern Ukraine. (For example, since Cheney effectively destroyed Iraq anyway, it might have been time to create a Kurdistan.)

So Ukraine's borders should NOT be changed. Any attempt to do so by Putin is a war crime. Ukraine's status a century ago is irrelevant. Yet some are recalling the origin of Kievan Rus 12 centuries ago.

Irrelevant digression:
So let me participate! Rurik was born about 830 AD, and founded a dynasty that ruled Russia until Rurik's g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g-g grandson Ivan the Terrible (d. 1584) who made ... mistakes in the later years of his reign, mistakes that led eventually to rejection of the Rurikids and to the election of the Romanov dynasty. But this was NOT the end of the Rurikid House. There are many Rurikid agnates still alive and calling themselves Princes. Before the communist take-over many of these Princes had estates — many of the estates were in the Ukraine IIRC.

Anyway, one thing interesting about the Rurikids is that they have the otherwise-rare Y-haplogroup N. N is the main haplogroup of the Saami (Laplanders) but is otherwise prevalant in no country except Finland. (By the way, many of the Princes today who claim to be Rurikids do NOT have the N haplogroup. Genealogists have been able to identify their distant ancestor who claimed a false Rurikid pedigree for political purpose.)

The Jagiello family, and other descendants of Gediminas of Lithuania (1257?-1341) also have the N haplogroup. (Gedminas is not a descendant of Rurik; their common agnatic ancestor is estimated to have lived about 100 BC.

 

[Copernicus]

Russian stocks crash 33% and ruble plunges to record low

Pootey doesn’t care. Why should he? He has already offshored most of what he and his oligarchs have stolen from the Russian people.

The Russian economy is more important than the personal wealth of Putin and his cronies, even if he wishes it were otherwise. People tend to underestimate the power of economic sanctions, but Russian policy has long been aimed at getting even the milquetoast sanctions lifted that were in place in the past. Now the sanctions are going to be a lot more noticeable to ordinary Russians.

 

[lpetrich]

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Russia's invasion of Ukraine is indefensible. The U.S. is right to impose targeted sanctions on Putin & his oligarchs. We also must work with our allies to prepare for a refugee crisis on a massive scale. Finally, any military action must take place with Congressional approval." / Twitter
noting
Catie Edmondson on Twitter: "You don’t see this often, but here’s a letter from 43 lawmakers in both parties — from Gosar and Gaetz to AOC and Bush — urging Biden to receive authorization from Congress before involving US armed forces in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (pix link)" / Twitter

DeFazio, Davidson Lead Bipartisan Letter to Biden Underscoring Congress’s Authority Relating to U.S. involvement in Russia-Ukraine Conflict | Congressman Peter DeFazio
He's from OR-04, my Congressional district.

We strongly urge your administration to respect the separation of powers, U.S. law, and Congress’s constitutional war powers authority. Should your administration seek to introduce U.S. Armed Forces into hostilities or decline to remove any U.S. military personnel currently deployed inside Ukraine from unauthorized hostilities or imminent hostilities, Congress stands ready to deliberate over the potentially monumental implications of such scenarios. The American people, through their representatives in Congress, deserve to have a say before U.S. troops are placed in harm’s way or the U.S. becomes involved in yet another foreign conflict.

The signers:

Barbara Lee, D-CA13, 0.0 -- Eleanor Holmes Norton, D-DC, 0.03 -- Ayanna Pressley, D-MA7, 0.05 -- Jesús G. "Chuy" García, D-IL4, 0.05 -- Pramila Jayapal, D-WA7, 0.07 -- Rashida Tlaib, D-MI13, 0.08 -- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY14, 0.09 -- Earl Blumenauer, D-OR3, 0.1 -- Ilhan Omar, D-MN5, 0.1 -- Raúl M. Grijalva, D-AZ3, 0.11 -- André Carson, D-IN7, 0.12 -- Gwen Moore, D-WI4, 0.13 -- Mark DeSaulnier, D-CA11, 0.14 -- James P. McGovern, D-MA2, 0.15 -- Mark Pocan, D-WI2, 0.17 -- Jared Huffman, D-CA2, 0.21 -- Peter A. DeFazio, D-OR4, 0.27 -- Darren Soto, D-FL9, 0.28 -- John B. Larson, D-CT1, 0.28 -- Lloyd Doggett, D-TX35, 0.29 -- Paul D. Tonko, D-NY20, 0.29 -- Peter Welch, D-VT, 0.29 -- Brad Sherman, D-CA30, 0.34 -- Thomas Massie, R-KY4, 0.52 -- H. Morgan Griffith, R-VA9, 0.63 -- Jeff Fortenberry, R-NE1, 0.66 -- Warren Davidson, R-OH8, 0.66 -- Michael C. Burgess, M.D., R-TX26, 0.68 -- David Schweikert, R-AZ6, 0.7 -- Ben Cline, R-VA6, 0.72 -- Louie Gohmert, R-TX1, 0.75 -- Andy Biggs, R-AZ5, 0.8 -- Bill Posey, R-FL8, 0.86 -- Matt Gaetz, R-FL1, 0.9 -- Alex X. Mooney, R-WV2, 0.92 -- Paul A. Gosar, D.D.S, R-AZ4, 0.92 -- Cori Bush, D-MO1, new -- Jamaal Bowman, Ed.D, D-NY16, new -- Kat Cammack, R-FL3, new -- Matthew Rosendale, Sr., R-MT, new -- Nancy Mace, R-SC1, new -- Peter Meijer, R-MI3, new -- Yvette Herrell, R-NM2, new

With party, district, and 2020 govtrack.us ideology score, when available.

So they go all the way from The Squad to the likes of Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar.

 

[Elixir]

Russian stocks crash 33% and ruble plunges to record low

Pootey doesn’t care. Why should he? He has already offshored most of what he and his oligarchs have stolen from the Russian people.

The Russian economy is more important than the personal wealth of Putin and his cronies, even if he wishes it were otherwise. People tend to underestimate the power of economic sanctions, but Russian policy has long been aimed at getting even the milquetoast sanctions lifted that were in place in the past. Now the sanctions are going to be a lot more noticeable to ordinary Russians.

I get that... but am mystified as to why the NASDAQ (tech heavy) index is up today.

 

[Jarhyn]

Russian stocks crash 33% and ruble plunges to record low

Pootey doesn’t care. Why should he? He has already offshored most of what he and his oligarchs have stolen from the Russian people.

The Russian economy is more important than the personal wealth of Putin and his cronies, even if he wishes it were otherwise. People tend to underestimate the power of economic sanctions, but Russian policy has long been aimed at getting even the milquetoast sanctions lifted that were in place in the past. Now the sanctions are going to be a lot more noticeable to ordinary Russians.

I get that... but am mystified as to why the NASDAQ (tech heavy) index is up today.

You don't think war is a huge cause for immediate investment into tech sector advances, in the tech age?

 

[Elixir]

You don't think war is a huge cause for immediate investment into tech sector advances, in the tech age?

Nope. It hasn't been. The tech sector has been hit pretty hard in the last few months, and was down heavily yesterday upon the announcement of war. The sense was that the deployment of technology, the bringing to market of tech that has been in the pipeline, is hurt by international strife. I am not sure what changed overnight. Maybe it is just bouncing off an emotional bottom, as it sometimes does.

 

[steve_bank]

Taiwan is to China what Ukraine is to Russia. China threatens Taiwan with invasion if they declare independence form China. Chia periodcaly fires missile near Taiwan. Politically China can not condemn Russia.

There is plenty of hypocrisy in the west, that is the norm.

Putin vs the west shows what the Cold War was about. The western principle of freedom of speech, action, democratic processes, and self determination. The other side, Russian and Chinese communism, was bent on world domination and e destruction of western democracy.

Whatever moarl failures there are in the west, it all comes down to a black and white difference in political ideology. If you see no difference between Putin and the west than I assume you would be ok with Russia dominating the world.

Consedering Putin's rhetoric against NATO and his demand that former Soviet states leave NATO, I would be concerned with Poland. I would think NATO should mobilize and protect the Polish border.

This is what NATO was built for, Russian deterrence. It is make or break time for the west.

Russia isn't invading Poland. Russia has been working to polarize Poland for years now. Russia simply can't afford to invade all the nations around it. So they need to turn them against NATO through promoting dissent. We've seen this in many nations in Eastern Europe.

The funniest and most damning thing is Putin citing Neo-Nazis in Ukraine, when he has been formenting support for Neo-Nazis and anti-Semitism across Eastern Europe.

Putin is an out of control mentally unstable dictator with a high percnatge pf popular support and a powerful military. He is probaly feeling exhilarated and tasting blood right now.

That he may go against NATO IMO is certainly possible.

From the reporting Barbos represents Putin's supporters. Putin has been pushing the victim narrative for decades in Russia. He has Russia primed for war against the west.

The inevitable success in Ukraine will reinforce popular support.

We ewxpeinced it under GWB when we invaded Iraq. The country and the media got carried away by patriotism and supported it with few dissenters. The propaganda made Hussein an existential threat to the USA.