How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

S.3522 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 | Congress.gov | Library of Congress

Lend-Lease? That was the sort of deal that the US made with Britain in the early years of WWII, giving military assistance to Britain before entering the war.

That bill passed the Senate by an unrecorded voice vote, then went to the House. The vote there:
Roll Call 141 | Bill Number: S. 3522
D: Y 221
R: Y 196, N 10, nv 3
ttl: Y 417, N 10, nv 3

Voting against the bill: Biggs R-AZ, Bishop R-NC, Davidson R-OH, Gaetz R-FL, Gosar R-AZ, Greene R-GA, Massie R-KY, Norman R-SC, Perry R-PA, Tiffany R-WI

Not voting: Allen R-GA, Nehls R-TX, Stewart R-UT

 

[lpetrich]

H.R.6930 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Asset Seizure for Ukraine Reconstruction Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congress

This bill establishes a working group to determine the legal mechanisms that may be used to seize assets belonging to certain foreign persons (i.e., individuals and entities) affiliated with Russia's political leadership and addresses related issues.

The interagency working group must determine the constitutional mechanisms by which the President may take steps to seize and confiscate assets belonging to any sanctioned foreign person whose wealth is derived through support for or corruption related to the regime of Russian president Vladimir Putin. The working group must report to Congress on certain issues including (1) recommendations to impose additional energy-related sanctions on Russia's government, and (2) any additional authorities the President needs to take steps to seize and confiscate the assets.

The President must report to Congress a determination as to whether to expand existing sanctions related to certain Russian government activities to cover additional persons.

The vote on it:
Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives - Vote Details
D: Y 214, N 4, nv 2
R: Y 203, N 4, nv 2

The "no" voters:
Bush D-MO, Ocasio-Cortez D-NY, Omar D-MN, Tlaib D-MI
Cawthorn R-NC, Greene R-GA, Massie R-KY, Roy R-TX

The non-voters:
Kinzinger R-IL, Miller R-IL, Sewell D-AL, Sherman D-CA

It's passed the House and it's been sent to the Senate.

At first sight, this might be a horseshoe-theory vote. But AOC explained her vote as because it was short on due process, though she liked the goal of sanctioning oligarchs.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "@jamiedupree Oligarchs should pay, which is why Rep. AOC fought for unprecedented sanctions. But this vote told POTUS to violate the 4th Amd & seize private property - a risky precedent for future presidents, w/ so many in the U.S. already fighting civil asset forfeiture.
Full statement: (pic link)" / Twitter

Oligarchs should suffer huge financial losses, which is why the Congresswoman participated in designing and voted for the toughest sanctions in recent memory. But this vote asked President Biden to violate the 4th Amendment, seize private property, and determine where it would go - all without due process. This sets a risky new precedent in the event of future Presidents who may seek to abuse that expansion of power, especially with so many of our communities already fighting civil asset forfeiture.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "'Civil asset forfeiture' is so unjust, many don’t realize its possible. ..." / Twitter

'Civil asset forfeiture' is so unjust, many don’t realize its possible.

Law enforcement can seize property, like a car or home, without charging a crime or going to court. They only need suspicion the property is related to a crime. They can then sell the property & keep the $

In the case of Ms. Harris, who spoke at a recent @OversightDems hearing, law enforcement took her car and didn't provide any explanation for 5 years.

They then gave her just 21 days to respond, and until she got pro bono help, she was ready to give up the car b/c of the fees.

Civil forfeiture disproportionately hurts low-income, people of color who don't have the resources to fight it.

It requires little evidence, and presumes guilty until proven innocent.

It is fundamentally unjust and it needs to end.

With some video of her in action in that hearing.

 

[Gospel]

The 5th Amendment died a long time ago. I visit its grave every morning when I wake up. RIP

 

[SLD]

Putin May have to announce full scale mobilization on May 9th. But if he does he’ll be telegraphing that he’s losing. Which he is. Watch the Russian people avoid service. In the late 80’s, something like 90% of conscripts just didn’t show up. we could see massive but passive resistance to the war. That’s Russia’s fundamental dilemma. It’s troops aren’t willing to fight and die in Ukraine. Ukrainians are. And it will only get worse as the war drags on interminably.

25% of Russian professional Army is in Ukraine now. The rest is just spread over Russia and doing nothing. Russia has small population but not that small.
Just so you know.

You are a willfully ill-informed tool.
Just so you know.

The other 75% are needed to keep a lid on the Russian people. It’s the same problem with all autocracies. That’s why Putin has to mobilize.

 

[Elixir]

Putin May have to announce full scale mobilization on May 9th. But if he does he’ll be telegraphing that he’s losing. Which he is. Watch the Russian people avoid service. In the late 80’s, something like 90% of conscripts just didn’t show up. we could see massive but passive resistance to the war. That’s Russia’s fundamental dilemma. It’s troops aren’t willing to fight and die in Ukraine. Ukrainians are. And it will only get worse as the war drags on interminably.

25% of Russian professional Army is in Ukraine now. The rest is just spread over Russia and doing nothing. Russia has small population but not that small.
Just so you know.

You are a willfully ill-informed tool.
Just so you know.

The other 75% are needed to keep a lid on the Russian people. It’s the same problem with all autocracies. That’s why Putin has to mobilize.

It would be a shame if someone took the west Siberia oilfields away from Pootey. I’m not sure that 75% of his incompetent military is sufficient for the job.

 

[Patooka]

Seeing as Barbos is parroting the bullshit claim that Ukraine is actually Russia because of history I'm sure he has no problems with Russia unconditionally giving the Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan and the Habomai islet groups back to Japan.

 

[Elixir]

I’m pretty sure their Pacific ports used to be someone else’s …

 

[lpetrich]

Lawmakers on left, right explain ‘no’ votes on Russia-Ukraine bill | The Hill
Thomas Massie (R):

Massie told The Hill that “giving Joe Biden unilateral authority to seize property in the United States without any due process sets a dangerous and disturbing precedent.”

Rashida Tlaib (D):

Denzel McCampbell, a spokesperson for Tlaib’s office, told The Hill that while the congresswoman supports sanctioning Russian oligarchs in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and seizing assets acquired through corruption, “she does oppose allowing our government to unilaterally seize people’s assets with no legal process.”

McCampbell said the bill “provides essentially no evidentiary standards for asset seizure,” does not require the government to report details regarding evidence it says it has, does not include provisions that protect the due process rights for individuals and “contains zero measures to ensure transparency and accountability.”

“Due process is the foundation of our legal system. While seizing ill-gotten Russian oligarch assets is a righteous cause, we cannot create a precedent that would allow our government to ignore due process rights no matter the justification, because tomorrow the issue will be different but that precedent will remain,” McCampbell added.

Chip Roy (R):

Roy said he voted against the bill because it “effectively gives the president a blank check to fund poorly-defined ‘democracy and human rights programming and monitoring.’” He told The Hill that he does not think “Congress should support handing off more of its job to the executive branch and simply trust the Biden administration to follow due process.”

AOC (D): the bill violates the Fourth Amendment, because of its lack of due process.

She said the terms would set a “risky new precedent.”

“Oligarchs should suffer huge financial losses, which is why the Congresswoman participated in designing and voted for the toughest sanctions in recent memory. But this vote asked President Biden to violate the 4th Amendment, seize private property, and determine where it would go – all without due process,” the spokesperson said.

Cori Bush (D): following what the ACLU said about an earlier version of this bill.

Ilhan Omar (D): because it was mostly symbolic: “absolutely not.”

“When you do something symbolic like this you have Ukrainians who are believing this is being done, and that there are resources that are going to come to them, and you can’t do that to people,” she added.

Madison Cawthorn and MTG: no comment.

govtrack.us 2020 ideology scores: AOC: 0.09, RT 0.08, IO 0.10, CB --, ... CM 0.52, CR 0.68, MC --, MTG --

 

[TV and credit cards]

Lawmakers on left, right explain ‘no’ votes on Russia-Ukraine bill | The Hill
Thomas Massie (R):

Massie told The Hill that “giving Joe Biden unilateral authority to seize property in the United States without any due process sets a dangerous and disturbing precedent.”

Rashida Tlaib (D):

Denzel McCampbell, a spokesperson for Tlaib’s office, told The Hill that while the congresswoman supports sanctioning Russian oligarchs in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and seizing assets acquired through corruption, “she does oppose allowing our government to unilaterally seize people’s assets with no legal process.”

McCampbell said the bill “provides essentially no evidentiary standards for asset seizure,” does not require the government to report details regarding evidence it says it has, does not include provisions that protect the due process rights for individuals and “contains zero measures to ensure transparency and accountability.”

“Due process is the foundation of our legal system. While seizing ill-gotten Russian oligarch assets is a righteous cause, we cannot create a precedent that would allow our government to ignore due process rights no matter the justification, because tomorrow the issue will be different but that precedent will remain,” McCampbell added.

Chip Roy (R):

Roy said he voted against the bill because it “effectively gives the president a blank check to fund poorly-defined ‘democracy and human rights programming and monitoring.’” He told The Hill that he does not think “Congress should support handing off more of its job to the executive branch and simply trust the Biden administration to follow due process.”

AOC (D): the bill violates the Fourth Amendment, because of its lack of due process.

She said the terms would set a “risky new precedent.”

“Oligarchs should suffer huge financial losses, which is why the Congresswoman participated in designing and voted for the toughest sanctions in recent memory. But this vote asked President Biden to violate the 4th Amendment, seize private property, and determine where it would go – all without due process,” the spokesperson said.

Cori Bush (D): following what the ACLU said about an earlier version of this bill.

Ilhan Omar (D): because it was mostly symbolic: “absolutely not.”

“When you do something symbolic like this you have Ukrainians who are believing this is being done, and that there are resources that are going to come to them, and you can’t do that to people,” she added.

Madison Cawthorn and MTG: no comment.

govtrack.us 2020 ideology scores: AOC: 0.09, RT 0.08, IO 0.10, CB --, ... CM 0.52, CR 0.68, MC --, MTG --

10 (2) The President, by means of instructions, li-
11 censes, or other regulations as may be promulgated
12 and in a manner consistent with due process of law,
13 should confiscate any property or accounts subject to
14 the jurisdiction of the United States

My lay understanding is in conflict with the gentlewoman’s from New York.

 

[steve_bank]

I listened to reporting from Ukraine this morning.

Russian troops are pillaging, plundering, and raping. Above and beyond combat the Russian soldiers are trashing and stealing everything they can carry away. A farmer had his new harvester stolen and his wheat taken.

It is no less than genocide.

It is looking like the Russian march to Berlin in WWII. Maybe we are seeing Russian culture at play.

 

[Jayjay]

Nonsense. Most locals have fled, and not to Russia, but other parts of Ukraine or abroad

Nonsense is all yours. People in Eastern Ukraine fled to Russia when they could.
Nazi regime was trying to prevent Russia route, but they did.
People in Western Ukraine for obvious reason choose to leave to Poland/Europe.

According to UNHCR, only about 700,000 have gone to Russia since February. Which is understandable, because that's the only place to go from Russian occupied territory except in the very beginning of the conflict. Millions have moved to Europe, and many more are internally displaced, and that's not even counting the ones displaced between 2014-2021. And most of the refugees seem to be from the Eastern part of the country, because the West is fairly safe now and people are even coming back to Kyiv.

And the point was that if the "locals" supported the Russian occupation, they wouldn't leave at all. Not even to Russia.

Repeating a false claim doesn't make it true.

That's not a claim. That's undeniable conclusion. Kharkov city bombing was a nazi regime provocation, period.

Not based on any evidence. If it's an "undeniable conclusion", why are you refusing to address the arguments and just keep asserting so? Where is your evidence?

If the video was doctored to include a missile, why did the video editor miss one frame? (Answer: because it wasn't doctored.)

If it was a bomb on street level, how did it produce holes in the roof of the building? (Answer: because another missile hit the building 30 minutes later.)

Why did the "nazis" need to fake this, if Russia was striking the city elsewhere in dozens of other places as well? (Answer: because they didn't.)

You have no answers to these questions, because the "conclusion" that you're drawing is a stinking pile of bullshit.

Kramatorsk, Tochka-U, nazi regime war crime.

A Russian Tochka-U. Russia has been hitting Kramatorsk after that strike in multiple places. Why would that one hit be any different?

Donetsk , Tochka-U, nazi regime war crime.

Or just war.

Lughansk City Hall aerial attack in 2014, nazi regime war crime.

Or just war. Wouldn't have happened if Russia didn't occupy Donetsk.

Mariupol, multiple war crimes of using civilian population as shield.
simply rape and murder. Countless witnesses, tons of data for court.

Now you're talking about Russian war crimes.

 

[SLD]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-04-20/what-if-war-ukraine-doesnt-end?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=The New Cold War Could Soon Heat Up&utm_content=20220505&utm_term=FA Today - 112017

Generally it is assumed that a long war of attrition is not in Putin’s interest. He promised a quick and relatively bloodless victory. It won’t happen. But a longer war from his perspective holds some advantages and it is all he may have left. He will try to divert blame to his advisers and rally the people for a longer war. If he can delay things long enough, he can hand it off to a successor. He could bide his time while trying hundreds of thousands of new conscripts and maybe rebuild his PGM and other forces. But that may depend on whether he can fund things, I.e. selling oil abroad, if not to Europe.

A longer war may also strain European economies and thus undermine support for Ukraine. It could also result in several regime changes in the West. Anger over high prices could put Trump back in the Whitehouse in 2025. He could then get a much better deal.

I suspect that he will at least pursue this approach to start. The Russians have done little in Eastern Ukraine since shifting their focus there. Whether that’s due to Ukrainian resistance or to his desire to avoid casualties is debatable. But I think the key in the west is to stop supporting him by buying oil and gas from him. It would cause a short term economic crisis, but if it stops this bloody war, it would create an enormous economic boom.

 

[Jayjay]

Speaking of counting dead russian generals.
NYT says US is helping to assassinate them by providing real time intelligence data to nazi forces.
I guess russian army needs to do something about it. Get away from WW2 style command and control structure where higher ranks are unnecessary close to the front line and such.
No cell phones for sure.

That might be a good idea. But I have a much simpler solution that would save Russian generals and their soldiers: stop invading Ukraine! Return home! It's not your country. Stop blowing up shit. No one wants Russian troops in their country anymore.

No, It's our country, it's our people.

That's what Hitler said about Austria and the Sudetenland. You're in good company.

 

[Harry Bosch]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-04-20/what-if-war-ukraine-doesnt-end?utm_medium=newsletters&utm_source=fatoday&utm_campaign=The New Cold War Could Soon Heat Up&utm_content=20220505&utm_term=FA Today - 112017

Generally it is assumed that a long war of attrition is not in Putin’s interest. He promised a quick and relatively bloodless victory. It won’t happen. But a longer war from his perspective holds some advantages and it is all he may have left. He will try to divert blame to his advisers and rally the people for a longer war. If he can delay things long enough, he can hand it off to a successor. He could bide his time while trying hundreds of thousands of new conscripts and maybe rebuild his PGM and other forces. But that may depend on whether he can fund things, I.e. selling oil abroad, if not to Europe.

A longer war may also strain European economies and thus undermine support for Ukraine. It could also result in several regime changes in the West. Anger over high prices could put Trump back in the Whitehouse in 2025. He could then get a much better deal.

I suspect that he will at least pursue this approach to start. The Russians have done little in Eastern Ukraine since shifting their focus there. Whether that’s due to Ukrainian resistance or to his desire to avoid casualties is debatable. But I think the key in the west is to stop supporting him by buying oil and gas from him. It would cause a short term economic crisis, but if it stops this bloody war, it would create an enormous economic boom.

Totally agree with you. We need to get this stopped. Too many Ukrainians civilians are dying. If Putin doesn't start pulling back on May 9: the west must finalize boycotting Russian oil/gas; increase aid to Ukraine; put more pressure on China and India; fast track Finland and Sweden to join Nato (if they so desire); do everything we can to help Ukraine and put pressure on Russia to stop. This would put much of the world in a recession. But better to do it now, seek a better economy after the Russian war is over.

 

[Jayjay]

Warm weather in March? Stop bullshitting.

Dude, temperature was recorded and is known.

Yes, it is:

Weather Archive Bucha - meteoblue

meteoblue - weather close to you

www.meteoblue.com

Below 10 °C until the 21st of March, and even after that the daily average stayed below that. And it went below zero in the night almost until the end of March. It's a far cry from being "three weeks in 15 C" that you claimed.

What should a fully clothed dead body look like after two weeks in those conditions? I don't know, and I doubt that you do either. But the bodies in Bucha certainly don't look "fresh" to me.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Speaking of counting dead russian generals.
NYT says US is helping to assassinate them by providing real time intelligence data to nazi forces.
I guess russian army needs to do something about it. Get away from WW2 style command and control structure where higher ranks are unnecessary close to the front line and such.
No cell phones for sure.

That might be a good idea. But I have a much simpler solution that would save Russian generals and their soldiers: stop invading Ukraine! Return home! It's not your country. Stop blowing up shit. No one wants Russian troops in their country anymore.

No, It's our country, it's our people.

That's what Hitler said about Austria and the Sudetenland. You're in good company.

Our country, our people, ... our neo-nazis?

Really a shame they are killing their people... and destroying their country.

 

[Jayjay]

There has been substantial progress in cutting off Russian oil/gas in Europe. Germany is finally committing to cutting off Russia:

Germany ready to support EU ban on Russian oil | DW | 02.05.2022

The oil embargo could be upheld for years, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has said. Her Green ally Robert Habeck said complete independence from Russian oil was possible by late summer.

www.dw.com

However, if we really want to stop Russian imperialism, we have to stop all economic transactions with Russia. We pat ourselves on the back for aiding Ukraine, but the west currently sends almost a billion dollars a day to Russia for its oil/gas. That has to stop. Then as the war continues, we have to find a way to stop China and India from supporting Russia. China wants it both ways. It wants to make money off the west and money off of Russia.

Of course, if the US supported India better, that side of the equation wouldn't be as difficult. India have a lot of people are not enough in the way of resources. China will do as China does. Right now, they aren't particularly happy with supporting Russia through this.

China benefits from Russia as a buffer, like a bigger version of North Korea. It will continue to deal with Russia on the cheap under the table, while avoiding to support it openly. In the end, China will bleed Russia dry of its natural resources.

I think it's ironic that Russia in its delusions of imperialist grandeur, might and up becoming China's vassal state.

 

[steve_bank]

Russia built the Berlin Wall and The Iron Curtain.

Maybe the long term solution is to build a wall on Russian bordersr amed to the teeth with wtachtowers.

The analysis is saying on the 9th Russia's patriotic day Putin will either declare war or declare victory.

 

[Jayjay]

Unfortunately, Russia will be able to keep the territory it can wrestle from Ukraine forever. So in Putin's calculations, it doesn't matter how much it costs or how long it takes to replace the tanks and ammunition used. After all, there is no real existential threat to Russia from NATO or anywhere else that they would need those weapons for.

Why do you assume Russia can hold the territory? While it's obvious Ukraine isn't going to invade Russia (beyond the sort of thing it's already doing, going after logistics targets in Russia) they have no reason to stop at the 2014 lines and I wouldn't be surprised if they also take Sevastopol.

Taking territory is much harder than holding it. Ukraine doesn't have the manpower or the right kind of weapons. While Ukraine has sabotaged a few targets in Russia, the Russian supply lines in the East are still far more robust than Ukraine's. All that Russia needs to do to stop the flow of weapons to the front is a couple of bridges over Dnieper, which I think is just a matter of time.

 

[steve_bank]

The reporting says Ukraine has the advantage in manpower. The Russian losses are high.

Going back to WWII Russian dictators never blink an eye at casualties. Putin is unlikely moved at all by the Russian human losses. Stone cold brutality like the Nazis.

The war against the Germans was one of mass frontal attacks and attrition.

 

[Harry Bosch]

The reporting says Ukraine has the advantage in manpower. The Russian losses are high.

Going back to WWII Russian dictators never blink an eye at casualties. Putin is unlikely moved at all by the Russian human losses. Stone cold brutality like the Nazis.

The war against the Germans was one of mass frontal attacks and attrition.

Russia also has the great advantage of longer range artillery and air power. But American aid (and Europe) is coming to the rescue. American long rate howitzers will be put into position shortly. Not good for Ivan.

 

[Thomas II]

https://fortune.com/2022/05/06/un-warns-millions-tons-grain-stuck-ukraine-food-prices/

It’s an almost grotesque situation.’ Nearly 25 million tons of grain are stuck in Ukraine, and the UN says it doesn’t know when it can be accessed​

 

[Harry Bosch]

https://fortune.com/2022/05/06/un-warns-millions-tons-grain-stuck-ukraine-food-prices/

It’s an almost grotesque situation.’ Nearly 25 million tons of grain are stuck in Ukraine, and the UN says it doesn’t know when it can be accessed​

Yes, this is a huge issue. I laugh when I hear people like Jason telling people that the war in Ukraine is none of our business. It has no effect on me! Bullshit. It affects everyone. The world needs to unite more to find a way to stop Russian imperialism.

 

[steve_bank]

The reporting says Ukraine has the advantage in manpower. The Russian losses are high.

Going back to WWII Russian dictators never blink an eye at casualties. Putin is unlikely moved at all by the Russian human losses. Stone cold brutality like the Nazis.

The war against the Germans was one of mass frontal attacks and attrition.

Russia also has the great advantage of longer range artillery and air power. But American aid (and Europe) is coming to the rescue. American long rate howitzers will be put into position shortly. Not good for Ivan.

The French at Diem Bien Phu. The Vietnamese carried artillery piece by piece on their backs up steep slopes to get high ground.

The Tet Offensive in our VN war. We had overwhelming military superiority yet in the long run did not prevail. Paraphrasing General Giap we have fought for centuries to expel foreigners and we will endure as long as it takes. They were willing to die for their cause.

 

[Harry Bosch]

The reporting says Ukraine has the advantage in manpower. The Russian losses are high.

Going back to WWII Russian dictators never blink an eye at casualties. Putin is unlikely moved at all by the Russian human losses. Stone cold brutality like the Nazis.

The war against the Germans was one of mass frontal attacks and attrition.

Russia also has the great advantage of longer range artillery and air power. But American aid (and Europe) is coming to the rescue. American long rate howitzers will be put into position shortly. Not good for Ivan.

The French at Diem Bien Phu. The Vietnamese carried artillery piece by piece on their backs up steep slopes to get high ground.

The Tet Offensive in our VN war. We had overwhelming military superiority yet in the long run did not prevail. Paraphrasing General Giap we have fought for centuries to expel foreigners and we will endure as long as it takes. They were willing to die for their cause.

Yep, totally agree. The problem with imperialists is that their troops generally lose the desire to fight over time. We've seen this from day one from the Russians. The Russians can just return home. I don't think that all of them want to fight to death just so that their leaders can add notches to their belts.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians have no choice. They are fighting in their land. Many of them are willing to fight and die.

 

[steve_bank]

My impression from the 80s was the Russian military was harsh even brutal. Contrast to the voluntary western armies.

 

[ZiprHead]

My impression from the 80s was the Russian military was harsh even brutal. Contrast to the voluntary western armies.

I heard on a radio show that Russian troops are taught to be brutal, that savagery intimidates the enemy.

 

[Elixir]

savagery intimidates the enemy.

Turns out, it also pisses them off.

 

[Harry Bosch]

My impression from the 80s was the Russian military was harsh even brutal. Contrast to the voluntary western armies.

I heard on a radio show that Russian troops are taught to be brutal, that savagery intimidates the enemy.

I wouldn't be surprised. All armies, including the US military, commit a certain number of atrocities against civilians. It does seem to be in higher proportion in the Russian army. And we're not hearing the Russian government doing anything about it. So obviously, they don't give a damn. But I also think that the Wagner-Nazi group is going in after the Russian soldiers have conquered an area; then they commit more crimes against the civilians. Either way, Russia is responsible of course.

 

[Harry Bosch]

savagery intimidates the enemy.

Turns out, it also pisses them off.

I will defend the Russian soldiers a tiny tiny bit! They are committing crimes in Ukraine and should be held accountable. Hopefully the world won't forget. However, think about how horrible it would be to be a common Russian soldier! Their wages are absolute shit (paid far less than American soldiers). No benefits. Terrible training. They are lied to by their superiors (Ukraine is only an exercise!). Their superiors give them no support. Old out of date food. Allegedly, the hazing committed by their superiors is horrendous. Then to top it off, the Wagnernazis are allegedly shooting Russian soldiers in the back when they lack certain enthusiasm for fighting!

 

[Copernicus]

Russia is looking for some kind of victory to crow about for the May 9 celebration of the surrender of Nazi Germany in WWII. So they are bombarding Odesa, Ukraine, with cruise missiles today. I have a FB friend in Odesa who is a professional classical and jazz musician. He participates in street concerts every Saturday, which he livestreams on the internet. A couple of weeks ago, a cruise missile went off blocks away in their residential neighborhood during the concert. The startled musicians looked in the direction of the explosion, but they didn't stop playing. I have posted a brief video clip of today's performance on the IIDB Facebook page. It took place in a bomb shelter. I don't know whether his wife and daughter were able to evacuate, but I hope so. The courage of Ukrainians is amazing.

Ukraine braces for escalated attacks ahead of Russia's V-Day

 

[Copernicus]

We have seen a lot of Russian spin on news events filtered through barbos's perspective in our forum, but it can be interesting to actually monitor Russian state-controlled media independently. Here is an interesting alternative perspective from a NY Times reporter who watched hours of Russian TV and gave his impressions of how the news is presented to ordinary Russians:

 

[Elixir]

Here’s a story, don’t know if it’s true, but I like it:

 

[Copernicus]

For those interested in the jazz concert from a bomb shelter in Odesa today, I have posted a really nice version of "Straighten Up and Fly Right" on the IIDB Facebook feed. My friend Sasha did the musical arrangement and is on the piano. He is doing his part to lift spirits and help people endure this invasion of their country. The performance was recorded shortly before I posted this message.

 

[Elixir]

Looks like another Russian naval debacle...

Another Russian Warship Is Burning In The Black Sea​

"The ship is reportedly a frigate-sized vessel, possibly the Admiral Makarov, one of Russia’s newest and most advanced frigates. The 4,000-ton vessel is one of the largest warships in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which is a key part of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian news site Dumskaya (English translation here) identified the ship as a “Russian frigate project 11356P of the Burevestnik type,” a description that corresponds to Admiral Grigorovich-class vessels (also known as Krivak IVs), which includes the Admiral Makarov.

The stricken frigate is currently near Snake Island, which is about 75 miles south of Odessa. “Enemy aircraft are now circling over this area of the Black Sea, and rescue ships have come out to help the ship from the temporarily occupied Crimea,” Dumskaya said.

I like that "temporarily occupied Crimea" line.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Putin May have to announce full scale mobilization on May 9th. But if he does he’ll be telegraphing that he’s losing. Which he is. Watch the Russian people avoid service. In the late 80’s, something like 90% of conscripts just didn’t show up. we could see massive but passive resistance to the war. That’s Russia’s fundamental dilemma. It’s troops aren’t willing to fight and die in Ukraine. Ukrainians are. And it will only get worse as the war drags on interminably.

25% of Russian professional Army is in Ukraine now. The rest is just spread over Russia and doing nothing. Russia has small population but not that small.
Just so you know.

You are a willfully ill-informed tool.
Just so you know.

The other 75% are needed to keep a lid on the Russian people. It’s the same problem with all autocracies. That’s why Putin has to mobilize.

A lot of the Russian professional military are going to be support troops and technicians for things like nuclear forces, supply depots, military air transport and the like which are not useful to fight a ground war in Ukraine. Usually it is calculated as a rule of thumb, to to keep one soldier in the field takes 10 support personnel.

 

[ZiprHead]

Russian forces may soon be forced out of artillery range of Kharkiv: report

The assessment by the Institute for the Study of War said Ukraine was making gains in an important phase of the battle in the eastern Donbass region.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Jayjay]

Russian forces may soon be forced out of artillery range of Kharkiv: report

The assessment by the Institute for the Study of War said Ukraine was making gains in an important phase of the battle in the eastern Donbass region.

www.newsweek.com

Good news, but Kharkiv is just a diversion meant to keep Ukrainian troops busy.

 

[Patooka]

A lot of the Russian professional military are going to be support troops and technicians for things like nuclear forces, supply depots, military air transport and the like which are not useful to fight a ground war in Ukraine. Usually it is calculated as a rule of thumb, to to keep one soldier in the field takes 10 support personnel.

Are you sure that ratio is valid for a conscript military like Russia?

 

[Elixir]

A lot of the Russian professional military are going to be support troops and technicians for things like nuclear forces, supply depots, military air transport and the like which are not useful to fight a ground war in Ukraine. Usually it is calculated as a rule of thumb, to to keep one soldier in the field takes 10 support personnel.

Are you sure that ratio is valid for a conscript military like Russia?

It may be a bit more actually. You need the guy that shoots the soldier in the back if he tries to run away, and other ancillaries.

 

[Jayjay]

Interesting poll by YouGov:

Support for Ukraine is strong in Europe, but nations are not as united as it looks | YouGov

In a recent YouGov poll conducted with the European University Institute for the 2022 State of the Union conference in Florence, our research found that an overwhelming majority of the citizens of EU countries attribute responsibility for the situation in Ukraine to Russia.

yougov.co.uk

This is why Russia cut off gas to Bulgaria. The bully always goes after the weakest link. Also notably Estonia and Latvia are missing, I doubt their numbers would look that good to Russia either (although both have sizeable Russian-speaking populations).

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[steve_bank]

In WWII Eisenhower had to deal with cranky American, British, and free French militaries and leaders. It is a wonder that he managed it all into a coherent force.

Not only between the Allies, also the American inter-service rivalries. In the Pacific a personal dispute between the head of the Peral Hrbor code breaking team and a superior almost ended the group, which figured out Midway as a Japanese target. MacArthur once refused Amy bomber support for a Navy operation.

The fact that they are all generally cooperating against Russia is pretty remarkable historically speaking. It does not take a genius to see Putin may have been counting on that not happening.

 

[Elixir]

The Russians sank it themselves, to celebrate Victory Day.

Actually according to the Jerusalem Post:

“Ukrainian presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovich said that it was a misunderstanding, and the sinking of a Serna-class landing vessel was instead struck, Liga.net reported on Saturday.”

 

[TSwizzle]

The Democratic-led House of Representatives voted 368-57 on Tuesday evening to pass a roughly $40 billion bill to deliver aid to Ukraine as it continues to face Russia's brutal assault. All 57 votes in opposition were from Republicans.
The measure will next need to be passed by the Senate before it can go to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier in the day on Tuesday that after the House approved the package, the Senate "will move swiftly" to get the measure passed and sent to Biden's desk.

CNN

The “aid” is primarily weapons. Our tax dollars at work. WTF ?

 

[bilby]

The Democratic-led House of Representatives voted 368-57 on Tuesday evening to pass a roughly $40 billion bill to deliver aid to Ukraine as it continues to face Russia's brutal assault. All 57 votes in opposition were from Republicans.
The measure will next need to be passed by the Senate before it can go to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier in the day on Tuesday that after the House approved the package, the Senate "will move swiftly" to get the measure passed and sent to Biden's desk.

CNN

The “aid” is primarily weapons. Our tax dollars at work. WTF ?

They're fighting a war. What kind of "aid" would you prefer to send them?

Weapons sound to me like exactly the kind of thing you want people to send you, when you are fighting a war.

It seems unlikely that there are Ukrainians huddled in foxholes watching Russian tanks advance on their positions and thinking "I just wish the Americans had sent us some nice donuts instead of these anti-tank weapons".

 

[Harry Bosch]

The Democratic-led House of Representatives voted 368-57 on Tuesday evening to pass a roughly $40 billion bill to deliver aid to Ukraine as it continues to face Russia's brutal assault. All 57 votes in opposition were from Republicans.
The measure will next need to be passed by the Senate before it can go to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier in the day on Tuesday that after the House approved the package, the Senate "will move swiftly" to get the measure passed and sent to Biden's desk.

CNN

The “aid” is primarily weapons. Our tax dollars at work. WTF ?

Dude: where do you get the news!? Of course. The Russians are bombing Ukranian cities and ports. The Ukrainians don't like that. So, they are trying to push the Russian artillery and navy away from Ukranian cities as possible. Asking Russians to stop isn't working. So we're sending military weapons to Ukraine to help push out Russian invaders. Push them back, stop the war, everyone wins!

Seriously, we're going to be in the weapons business for a long time due to Russia. We need to send tons of defensive weapons to the border countries (Finland, Sweden, Poland, Lithuania, and etc. We need to encourage Russia to keep their troops at home.

 

[bilby]

The “aid” is primarily weapons. Our tax dollars at work. WTF ?

I know. It beggars belief that the USA might spend money on weapons. Whatever next?

 

[TSwizzle]

The Democratic-led House of Representatives voted 368-57 on Tuesday evening to pass a roughly $40 billion bill to deliver aid to Ukraine as it continues to face Russia's brutal assault. All 57 votes in opposition were from Republicans.
The measure will next need to be passed by the Senate before it can go to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier in the day on Tuesday that after the House approved the package, the Senate "will move swiftly" to get the measure passed and sent to Biden's desk.

CNN

The “aid” is primarily weapons. Our tax dollars at work. WTF ?

Dude: where do you get the news!?

CNN, it's right there in the link, Dude.

Of course. The Russians are bombing Ukranian cities and ports. The Ukrainians don't like that. So, they are trying to push the Russian artillery and navy away from Ukranian cities as possible. Asking Russians to stop isn't working. So we're sending military weapons to Ukraine to help push out Russian invaders. Push them back, stop the war, everyone wins!

"Everyone wins"? I'm not quite seeing how giving billions of $ to a war/regional conflict is a win for the citizens of the USA.

Seriously, we're going to be in the weapons business for a long time due to Russia.

A business is usually a for profit endeavor. Is the US taxpayer going to see more money, i.e. profit in return? Seems the only people making a profit would be the arms makers. Is this the business you are talking about?

We need to send tons of defensive weapons to the border countries (Finland, Sweden, Poland, Lithuania, and etc. We need to encourage Russia to keep their troops at home.

Doesn't seem to have worked. What's so special about Ukraine for the USA to get this involved?

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Democratic-led House of Representatives voted 368-57 on Tuesday evening to pass a roughly $40 billion bill to deliver aid to Ukraine as it continues to face Russia's brutal assault. All 57 votes in opposition were from Republicans.
The measure will next need to be passed by the Senate before it can go to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier in the day on Tuesday that after the House approved the package, the Senate "will move swiftly" to get the measure passed and sent to Biden's desk.

CNN

The “aid” is primarily weapons. Our tax dollars at work. WTF ?

Well, on the other side of this we may just have NATO members who all contribute their fair share to NATO. Sweden and Finland as new members. Sweden rebuilding what was once a strong military comparable to Finland’s. A Europe that will be much less dependent upon Russia for its energy needs. A Russia that will be hard pressed to finance the rebuilding of its military. In short, a NATO that will not need US forces nearly as much going forward.

On the other hand, not supporting Ukraine would get us what in Eastern Europe? A reconstituted Soviet Union by time Trump runs for office again in 2024? Halfhearted sanctions knowing the US was not going to throw in with Ukraine. And a Russia with all of Ukraine’s economic output at its disposal.

Investments can be a bit vague but this one seems like a pretty good bet.