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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Seems like Ukraine is gearing up for trying to retake Kherson, with damaging the bridges over the nearby Dneiper River. That will make it easier to besiege that city.

Kherson is the farthest-west major location that Russia has reached in this war. Russia has a target for westward expansion: Transnistria, a little strip on the eastern boarder of Moldova, ruled by a breakaway pro-Russian regime.

The area that Russia has conquered so far is most of 18th-cy. Novorossiya, "New Russia", where lots of Russian colonists were invited in. The rest of Ukraine was formerly part of the Kievan Rus and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
 
Novorossiya is roughly Kharkiv (Kharkov) - Luhansk (Lugansk) - Donetsk - Mariupol - Kherson - Odesa (Odessa), and also Crimea. That's eastern and southern Ukraine, the more pro-Russian parts of the country. Central, northern, and western Ukraine are the more ethnically Ukrainian parts of Ukraine.
 
I am really looking forward to the New Year's Day fireworks display over Crimea this year.
I hope it'll be just an ordinary day. :)

What's most interesting about the hits in Crimea is that we still don't have definitive idea how they're done.
 
Another base goes boom, boom. This time in Nova Kakhovka on the west bank of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast. Footage of the aftermath here:
 
Pavel Filatyev knew the consequences of what he was saying. The ex-paratrooper understood he was risking prison, that he would be called a traitor and would be shunned by his former comrades-in-arms. His own mother had urged him to flee Russia while he still could. He said it anyway.

“I don’t see justice in this war. I don’t see truth here,” he said over a tucked-away cafe table in the Moscow financial district. It was his first time sitting down in person with a journalist since returning from the war in Ukraine.

“I am not afraid to fight in war. But I need to feel justice, to understand that what I’m doing is right. And I believe that this is all failing not only because the government has stolen everything, but because we, Russians, don’t feel that what we are doing is right.”

Two weeks ago, Filatyev went on to his VKontakte social media page and published a 141-page bombshell: a day-by-day description of how his paratrooper unit was sent to mainland Ukraine from Crimea, entered Kherson and captured the seaport, and dug in under heavy artillery fire for more than a month near Mykolaiv – and then how he eventually was wounded and evacuated from the conflict with an eye infection.

By then, he was convinced he had to expose the rot at the core of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “We were sitting under artillery fire by Mykolaiv,” he said. “At that point I already thought that we’re just out here doing bullshit, what the fuck do we need this war for? And I really had this thought: ‘God, if I survive, then I’ll do everything that I can to stop this.’”

He spent 45 days writing his memoirs from the conflict, breaking an omerta under which even the word war has been banished in public. “I simply can’t stay quiet any longer, even though I know that I probably won’t change anything, and maybe I’ve acted foolishly to get myself in so much trouble,” says Filatyev, his fingers shaking from stress as he lit another cigarette.

His memoir, ZOV, is named for the tactical markings painted on Russian army vehicles that have been adopted as a pro-war symbol in Russia. Until now, there has been no more detailed, voluntary account from a Russian soldier participating in the invasion of Ukraine. Extracts were published in Russia’s independent press, while Filatyev appeared via video for a televised interview on TV Rain.

“It’s very important that someone became the first to speak out,” said Vladimir Osechkin, the head of the human rights network Gulagu.net, who helped Filatyev leave Russia earlier this week. That also made Filatyev the first soldier known to have fled Russia due to opposition to the war. “And it’s opening a Pandora’s box.”
 
Another base goes boom, boom. This time in Nova Kakhovka on the west bank of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast. Footage of the aftermath here:


Report says about 100 Russians killed, including commanders of the 2nd army, and 20 FSB officers.

 
I wish they would put the date instead of “this morning.” I watch these and then find out it was 5 days ago and the same report that was already in the news.


Also - thse things are loud!!
 
Seen elsewhere:
Alexander Dugin's daughter has been killed in what looks like a car bomb attack in Moscow. Dugin was probably the target and it suggests to me infighting as Putin's lieutenants jockey for position.

Unless it was arranged by Putin (in which case why not use formal powers?) he needs to get a grip and have a purge *soon*

If high level assassinations occur without the approval of the strongman, his influence is done for.
 
Russian tanks in Kyiv!!!..... or... well.. what is left of them.

Putin likes having his military parades with lots of tanks and weapons. So Kyiv is giving him what he wants, a display in the streets of a lot of wrecked russian military vehicles.

 
Seen elsewhere:
Alexander Dugin's daughter has been killed in what looks like a car bomb attack in Moscow. Dugin was probably the target and it suggests to me infighting as Putin's lieutenants jockey for position.

Unless it was arranged by Putin (in which case why not use formal powers?) he needs to get a grip and have a purge *soon*

If high level assassinations occur without the approval of the strongman, his influence is done for.
Another report states the daughter was driving the car Dugan was expected to be in, but he was following in another car and saw the explosion. This is sort of a bad TV drama cliche in real life.

The immediate question is, if this was a political assassination attempt, why this guy? Alexander Dugin is considered to be a kind of Steve Bannon character in Putin's rise to power, but he has no military function. There are plenty of calls on Russian social media blaming Ukraine for the attack, which is probably least likely. The idea of a Ukrainian hit squad sent to Moscow to target Dugin is absurd.

It's certainly not Putin's style, who has a history of killing people with nerve agents. There's no end of ways Dugin could have been murdered which would cause less turmoil in the Kremlin, so thinking Putin was behind this doesn't really pan out.
 
The area that Russia has conquered so far is most of 18th-cy. Novorossiya, "New Russia", where lots of Russian colonists were invited in. The rest of Ukraine was formerly part of the Kievan Rus and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Kievan Rus is technically Russia. Ukrainian nazi have persistent linguistic butthurt about that.
So I agree, Russia should take back what was and IS Russia and leave nazi scam to Poland. In the end there will be no independent Ukraine left. There will be historical area called Ukraine which, in case you did not know, literally means "Outskirts" (of Russian Empire)
 
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