How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jarhyn]

Yes, gently caressing your top assassins mouth, face and crotch with something that looks like a miniature dildo isn't weird at all.

That was truly bizarre. It looks like some kind of jar to hold something small? I wonder what was inside it. Probably some bit of someone's corpse.

Just rubbing him down with the necrodildo.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Are you conjuring up Yamamoto who allegedly said the same thing in Japn at the time of Pearl Harbor, we have woken a sleeping giant.

An appropriate reference.

I wonder if Putin is actually in control of the military. He may not be able to stop it even if he wanted to. The usual military coup if he tried?

From analysis I heard Russians have the sane kind of view on Chinese as North America had, the Yellow Peril. North Korean workers in Russia have low status.

It was resorted in the past Russia has a health problem, part of it being nutrition. They have a albor problem. Decling birth rate and nobody who wantss to move there. Except maybe Snowden. I hope Russia is everything he hoped it woud]l be.

That is probably one reason Ptuin demanded that foreign business not move out. They can't loose workers.

There is an amusing Youtube video, "How Russia Will Die" by Peter Zeihan that goes into some detail about such things. Not totally trustworthy, but under Putin, Russia has been suffering for nearly 20 years now.

Yamamoto actually did not say that. That was a line from the movie Tora! Tora! Tora! But in the case of Russia's neighbors and NATO it is apt.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So ummm... this isn't a positive development.

LONDON (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin on Thursday signed a decree ordering 134,500 new conscripts into the army as part of Russia's annual spring draft, but the defence ministry said the call-up had nothing to do with the war in Ukraine.

The order came five weeks into Russia's invasion, which has run into fierce Ukrainian resistance. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that none of those called up would be sent to any "hot spots".

The issue of conscripts' involvement in the war is highly sensitive. On March 9, the defence ministry acknowledged that some had been sent to Ukraine after Putin had denied this on various occasions, saying only professional soldiers and officers had been sent in.

Putin's spokesman said at the time that the president had ordered military prosecutors to investigate and punish the officials responsible for disobeying his instructions to exclude conscripts.

How many Russians are buying this BS?

Putin: I said don't use conscripts.
Putin: Also, we need more conscripts!

Russia is in the hands of the Oligarchs. They've got the money to move certain things into position to end Putin's madness. At best, Russia is going to bankrupt itself over small strips of land.

 

[Keith&Co.]

Putin: I said don't use conscripts.
Putin: Also, we need more conscripts!

No, that works. Don't use conscripts IN UKRAINE. They may not prove trustworthy being asked to shoot people that look a lot like them and speak the same language.

Then he needs conscripts everywhere else, to free up professional troops for Ukraine deployment.

So someone who's been happily running a quiet supply depot for ten years is suddenly turning over his books to someone who has been in uniform for three months, and told to drive a truck full of ammo to Kyiv.... "Is like promotion, Vassily. Loot some stores, rape some women, come back a war hero with medals and booty and stories! Just... Be ready to duck. A lot. Maybe mark the truck cargo as 'Condoms' or 'Borscht.' It will be fine, you see."

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Putin: I said don't use conscripts.
Putin: Also, we need more conscripts!

No, that works. Don't use conscripts IN UKRAINE. They may not prove trustworthy being asked to shoot people that look a lot like them and speak the same language.

Of course, it makes things easier if you use conscripts because they have no clue what is happening. That is how Pinochet got his Coup.

 

[steve_bank]

If the reporting is correct there are Russian soldiers who are refusing to obey orders and sabotaging equipment. Low morale, no food, ad no ammunition.

I am thinking of Vietnam. We are winng and the end is in sight, we just need a few hundred thousand more troops. I believe that was General Wstmoreland. The VC could not possibly organize a large scale assault, opps Tet Offensive.

 

[marc]

Apparently morale wasn't low enough, so a few hundred soldiers got ordered to dig trenches in the Red Forest... which is what they call the woods near Chernobyl, one of the most contaminated places you can find. Now many of those soldiers are being sent out for treatment for radiation sickness.

Russian Troops Suffer ‘Acute Radiation Sickness’ After Digging Chernobyl Trenches

Several hundred Russian troops reportedly rushed to a special medical facility in Belarus after digging in radioactive soil in a forest near the infamous nuclear plant.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[Copernicus]

Apparently morale wasn't low enough, so a few hundred soldiers got ordered to dig trenches in the Red Forest... which is what they call the woods near Chernobyl, one of the most contaminated places you can find. Now many of those soldiers are being sent out for treatment for radiation sickness.

Russian Troops Suffer ‘Acute Radiation Sickness’ After Digging Chernobyl Trenches

Several hundred Russian troops reportedly rushed to a special medical facility in Belarus after digging in radioactive soil in a forest near the infamous nuclear plant.

www.thedailybeast.com

They have apparently decided to return control of the facility back to Ukraine. The IAEA says that it can't confirm the story about irradiated soldiers, which came from the Ukrainian agency. Apparently, they found Chernobyl too hot to handle.

Russians hand control of Chornobyl nuclear plant back to Ukraine, IAEA says​

 

[bleubird]

I have been watching this site for a few days.
Great info on super yachts.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I might let Crimea go. It was Russian originally anyway. Elsewhere I would not give an inch, not even Donbas.

But if the people there don’t want to be part of Ukraine, why force them? That just guarantees future conflict.

I say let Crimea go, but Russia has to pay for it, but not Donbas or any other area. If the people don’t want to be part of Ukraine, let them emigrate to Russia.

Russia also has to pay reparations for the damage they’ve done.

What seems fair to an outside observer is not the same as what is achievable.

Russia's initial plans of a quick victory were foiled, but it is still very much in position to hold Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Ukraine lacks the offensive weapons to take back the territory, and East of Dnipro river the logistics favor Russia; it can attack from north, east, and now south, and all that Russia needs to do to stop Ukraine from advancing is to destroy the bridges.

And who's going to force Russia to pay reparations? Historically, only countries who've been utterly defeated and captured in wars have ever had to do it. Russia is merely being inconvenienced a bit. I think something akin to USSR vs. Finland will happen... Ukraine "wins" by avoiding occupation, but has to give up huge tracts of land and access to Sea of Azov and maybe Black Sea.

I hope that I'm wrong and that somehow NATO can provide Ukraine with enough defensive and offensive weapons to continue the fight, and that the state of Russian army is even worse than it seems, but right now, all I'm seeing is that Russia is refocusing its war effort and trying to get their shit together, and Ukraine has not made much progress except in the outskirts of Kyiv.

Who is going to force Russia to pay reparations? The US and the West. $388 billion in Russian assets are now confiscated from Russia and Russia has no access to these assets. They could in fact be given to Ukraine. Take Russia to court in the Hague and when they are found guilty of invading Ukraine and destroying much of it, there is then no reason not to hand these assets to Ukraine. Let Russia squeal. Who cares?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Apparently morale wasn't low enough, so a few hundred soldiers got ordered to dig trenches in the Red Forest... which is what they call the woods near Chernobyl, one of the most contaminated places you can find. Now many of those soldiers are being sent out for treatment for radiation sickness.

Russian Troops Suffer ‘Acute Radiation Sickness’ After Digging Chernobyl Trenches

Several hundred Russian troops reportedly rushed to a special medical facility in Belarus after digging in radioactive soil in a forest near the infamous nuclear plant.

www.thedailybeast.com

They have apparently decided to return control of the facility back to Ukraine. The IAEA says that it can't confirm the story about irradiated soldiers, which came from the Ukrainian agency. Apparently, they found Chernobyl too hot to handle.

Russians hand control of Chornobyl nuclear plant back to Ukraine, IAEA says​

These reports sound too unbelievable to be true. But given the failures of the Russian military in other parts of Ukraine why should we discount these reports that Russian troops operated in the Chernobyl area as it there was no radiation danger?

Again it appears that the Russian military is incapable of undertaking complex operations. I think we will see a continuous bombardment of cities in Ukraine. It seems the only thing Putin's Pigs can do with any effectiveness is kill civilians and civilian infrastructure.

 

[steve_bank]

I ave to assume there is pro Ukraine propaganda. Like the radiation story.

 

[Jayjay]

I might let Crimea go. It was Russian originally anyway. Elsewhere I would not give an inch, not even Donbas.

But if the people there don’t want to be part of Ukraine, why force them? That just guarantees future conflict.

I say let Crimea go, but Russia has to pay for it, but not Donbas or any other area. If the people don’t want to be part of Ukraine, let them emigrate to Russia.

Russia also has to pay reparations for the damage they’ve done.

What seems fair to an outside observer is not the same as what is achievable.

Russia's initial plans of a quick victory were foiled, but it is still very much in position to hold Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Ukraine lacks the offensive weapons to take back the territory, and East of Dnipro river the logistics favor Russia; it can attack from north, east, and now south, and all that Russia needs to do to stop Ukraine from advancing is to destroy the bridges.

And who's going to force Russia to pay reparations? Historically, only countries who've been utterly defeated and captured in wars have ever had to do it. Russia is merely being inconvenienced a bit. I think something akin to USSR vs. Finland will happen... Ukraine "wins" by avoiding occupation, but has to give up huge tracts of land and access to Sea of Azov and maybe Black Sea.

I hope that I'm wrong and that somehow NATO can provide Ukraine with enough defensive and offensive weapons to continue the fight, and that the state of Russian army is even worse than it seems, but right now, all I'm seeing is that Russia is refocusing its war effort and trying to get their shit together, and Ukraine has not made much progress except in the outskirts of Kyiv.

Who is going to force Russia to pay reparations? The US and the West. $388 billion in Russian assets are now confiscated from Russia and Russia has no access to these assets. They could in fact be given to Ukraine. Take Russia to court in the Hague and when they are found guilty of invading Ukraine and destroying much of it, there is then no reason not to hand these assets to Ukraine. Let Russia squeal. Who cares?

It's not technically "reparations" if the Russian assets are just taken without asking. Besides, a lot of these assets don't belong to Russian state, they're private property of various oligarchs and members of government. I think it would be good if the money could be used to rebuild Ukraine, but it has to happen within a legal framework.

 

[crazyfingers]

Putin's assets would be fair game and I'd argue justice demands that they must be taken.

At a minimum Putin should come out of this living in a cardboard box under a bridge eating dumpster garbage. He's likely the richest of the rich. Of course there is no known paper trail on what he owns.

 

[bilby]

why should we discount these reports that Russian troops operated in the Chernobyl area as it there was no radiation danger?

The radiation hazard in the area is minor. Acute Radiation Sickness would be very hard to achieve outside the sarcophagus structure that contains the damaged reactor.

Digging trenches in the Red Forest and then living in them (even for months) is a low risk activity. Most of the radioactive material is in a thin layer on the surface of the ground, and is harmless unless ingested. Breathing dust raised while digging might well cause an increase in cancer risk over the next decade, but it's not something that would be readily noticeable - a statistical study following the soldiers for the rest of their lives, and comparing them against a control group who fought in other areas of Ukraine, might be able to turn up a small increased incidence of cancers. But probably not.

Radiation levels in the Red Forest haven't been high enough to cause ARS since the 1980s.

Radiation isn't instant death, it's a normal part of the environment. The levels near Chernobyl are higher than they were before the 1986 incident, but they're not higher than the natural levels with which people have lived elsewhere for centuries without measurable ill effects. They were in the 1980s; But they're not now.

Of course, if I were a conscript in a foxhole near Chernobyl looking for a way out, blaming my dysentery symptoms on ARS would seem like a damn good plan.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Apparently morale wasn't low enough, so a few hundred soldiers got ordered to dig trenches in the Red Forest... which is what they call the woods near Chernobyl, one of the most contaminated places you can find. Now many of those soldiers are being sent out for treatment for radiation sickness.

Russian Troops Suffer ‘Acute Radiation Sickness’ After Digging Chernobyl Trenches

Several hundred Russian troops reportedly rushed to a special medical facility in Belarus after digging in radioactive soil in a forest near the infamous nuclear plant.

www.thedailybeast.com

They have apparently decided to return control of the facility back to Ukraine. The IAEA says that it can't confirm the story about irradiated soldiers, which came from the Ukrainian agency. Apparently, they found Chernobyl too hot to handle.

Russians hand control of Chornobyl nuclear plant back to Ukraine, IAEA says​

These reports sound too unbelievable to be true. But given the failures of the Russian military in other parts of Ukraine why should we discount these reports that Russian troops operated in the Chernobyl area as it there was no radiation danger?

Again it appears that the Russian military is incapable of undertaking complex operations. I think we will see a continuous bombardment of cities in Ukraine. It seems the only thing Putin's Pigs can do with any effectiveness is kill civilians and civilian infrastructure.

This is probably just a case of ignorance. Chernobyl is hardly going to be stressed in the history books if it's mentioned at all. The soldiers (including their commander) probably had no idea of what they were getting into and no respect for the workers there who tried to warn them.

 

[marc]

why should we discount these reports that Russian troops operated in the Chernobyl area as it there was no radiation danger?

The radiation hazard in the area is minor. Acute Radiation Sickness would be very hard to achieve outside the sarcophagus structure that contains the damaged reactor.

Digging trenches in the Red Forest and then living in them (even for months) is a low risk activity. Most of the radioactive material is in a thin layer on the surface of the ground, and is harmless unless ingested. Breathing dust raised while digging might well cause an increase in cancer risk over the next decade, but it's not something that would be readily noticeable - a statistical study following the soldiers for the rest of their lives, and comparing them against a control group who fought in other areas of Ukraine, might be able to turn up a small increased incidence of cancers. But probably not.

Radiation levels in the Red Forest haven't been high enough to cause ARS since the 1980s.

Radiation isn't instant death, it's a normal part of the environment. The levels near Chernobyl are higher than they were before the 1986 incident, but they're not higher than the natural levels with which people have lived elsewhere for centuries without measurable ill effects. They were in the 1980s; But they're not now.

Of course, if I were a conscript in a foxhole near Chernobyl looking for a way out, blaming my dysentery symptoms on ARS would seem like a damn good plan.

Thanks for the dose of reality.

 

[steve_bank]

If Russia is forcedout then reparations and international courts come into play.

Seze all the personal asses of Putin and company and give it to Ukraine.

I expect Russian soldiers are told as little as possible. Soldiers who went over to Ukraine allegedly said they were told nothing of the scope of campaign and were not prepared.

WWII Russian tactics. Mass an army, point in a direction, and say go. War of attrition.

In contrast after the North African debacle Eisenhower ordered a leadership training program that went down to the enlisted ranks. It paid off in the invasion of Fance. In the midst of chaos scattered units and individuals joined up and knowing general objectives figured out what to do without having to be told. Bottom up vs top down.

 

[bilby]

Seze all the personal asses of Putin and company and give it to Ukraine.

This is a plan that the international community can really get behind.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Turning frozen assets into seized assets and making them available to Ukraine will of course be within the laws of the particular country but we can help with evidence gathering to move the process along.
Russian Elites, Proxies, and Oligarchs Task Force or REPO.
There’s also Kleptocracy Asset Recovery Rewards Program which doesn’t have a cute acronym but I suppose you could tenuously connect it to carp, a bottom feeding fish so that’s something.