How should west respond to Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Loren Pechtel]

...and the long lines at gas stations and restrictions on how much people are allowed to buy were put in place for totally different reasons.

I don't see any lines here. In Crimea maybe.
Again, during WW2 US was dropping thousand of tons on German infrastructure with rather little effect.
50kg of explosives cannot put oil refinery out of commission for any meaningful amount of time.

The boom alone, no. The boom starting a fire, it could.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Increasing Ukrainian leverage is probably why Putin defiantly said there will be no negations. why Purim said there will be no negotiations.

Like Hitler all Putin can do is play it out to he bitter end. Putin has no off ramp.

In he end Hitler was putting uniforms on kids and handing them rifles.

From repeating Cr meas is in bad shape. t was big Russian tourist destination.

It's not like Hitler where the enemy sought his annihilation. But a loss in Ukraine makes it likely other parts of Russia will decide to leave.

 

[bilby]

...and the long lines at gas stations and restrictions on how much people are allowed to buy were put in place for totally different reasons.

I don't see any lines here. In Crimea maybe.
Again, during WW2 US was dropping thousand of tons on German infrastructure with rather little effect.
50kg of explosives cannot put oil refinery out of commission for any meaningful amount of time.

The boom alone, no. The boom starting a fire, it could.

You are forgetting the Death Star effect. WWII era refineries were fairly simple, and fairly inefficient, but had few critical and hard to replace components. WWII era weapons were incredibly inaccurate, and quantity doesn't effectively replace quality when hitting the right city is an achievement, and hitting the refinery itself a matter of dumb luck.

Modern refineries contain more complex components, some of which are very hard to replace quickly*; These are custom built to order with lead-times of years, and are imported from a handful of specialist manufacturers - unless, of course, their import is blocked by sanctions.

And hitting those components specifically is not impossible - modern drones can bullseye womp rats, and they're no bigger than two metres.

It's not necessary to take 100% of Russian refinery capacity offline for years. Ukraine just needs to take enough of it offline to make consumption (even after rationing) outstrip supply, for long enough to plan, prepare, and launch their next strike against each particular target. Which is what they've been doing.

A refinery is a big target, that needs a huge amount of munitions to completely destroy. But they have small but targettable weaknesses, which if hit can render the entire installation impotent.

And no Bothans had to die to bring Ukraine this information.






* The primary distillation column in each refinery unit is a single point of failure, and the whole unit produces nothing while it is offline; It's fairly easy to repair or replace, but only when it's not on fire. The crackers are far harder to repair or replace, and are essential for producing high volumes of light fractions (ie fuels), particularly from heavy crude; You can't run tanks, trucks, or tractors on bitumen. Ukraine has been targetting both of these components. They were also hitting finished product storage tanks at the start of the campaign, but are doing less of that now, because those tanks are now empty.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I hear that Russians are blaming the fuel shortages on government corruption.

They don't know about the attacks on the refineries, so they can't understand how fuel is so scarce, and suspect that corrupt officials are holding it back to sell at inflated prices on the black market.

Any reason to think it's not both?

 

[pood]

Utter Bullshit! It was neither legal nor was it Ukraine.

Can you cite the law that was broken?

Yeah, everything US does is legal. Yugoslavia invasion, Vietnam War, Iraq war.

Who here has said that? You are really losing it.

We here have repeatedly condemned various things that the U.S. and the West have done. When have you ever condemned a single thing that Nazi Russias has done?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Today the plot for the book does not seem all that far fetched. Terrorists destoy Russian oil infrastructure as I remember it.

That was just the spark.

Terrorists destroyed a major Russian oil refinery. Russia is facing critical fuel shortages. They decide the solution is to have a Russian sleeper agent in Germany attack the Kremlin, the response being a war against Germany and only Germany--no attacks on nuclear powers. The intent being to disrupt NATO so we will stay out of it when they invade the Arab oil lands.

The part I was referring to is at the end, Russia is putting everything into the front lines--NATO slips two raiding forces past them (one we know followed a power line--the power company kept the trees away from the line, providing a path through the forest tracked vehicles could use) and seizes the bridgeheads. Oops--huge Russian army screeches to a halt from a lack of fuel. War ends with a coup when someone has a bout of sanity about nuclear weapons.

Despite the Soviet and Chinese communist claims of a better alternate nether ever provided basic necessitates. Famines killed many. It was not until the mid 90s that China recovered from Maoism.

Yup. Communism works in small, voluntary groups. It doesn't scale, every attempt has been a disaster.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

So after the NATO meeting in Türkiye, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives everyone a parting gift, a handgun and ammunition. The article in Reuters runs through the various responses. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said and I’m paraphrasing, all I got him was maple syrup.
https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/turkeys-erdogan-gives-nato-leaders-revolver-conundrum-after-summit-2026-07-09/

I'm trying to see the downside of Trump having a loaded pistol and so far, I don't see it.

Might shoot a Secret Service agent, might shoot a reporter. Other than that, he's fired anyone that I would care if he put a hole in.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

...and the long lines at gas stations and restrictions on how much people are allowed to buy were put in place for totally different reasons.

I don't see any lines here. In Crimea maybe.
Again, during WW2 US was dropping thousand of tons on German infrastructure with rather little effect.
50kg of explosives cannot put oil refinery out of commission for any meaningful amount of time.

The boom alone, no. The boom starting a fire, it could.

You are forgetting the Death Star effect. WWII era refineries were fairly simple, and fairly inefficient, but had few critical and hard to replace components. WWII era weapons were incredibly inaccurate, and quantity doesn't effectively replace quality when hitting the right city is an achievement, and hitting the refinery itself a matter of dumb luck.

Modern refineries contain more complex components, some of which are very hard to replace quickly*; These are custom built to order with lead-times of years, and are imported from a handful of specialist manufacturers - unless, of course, their import is blocked by sanctions.

And hitting those components specifically is not impossible - modern drones can bullseye womp rats, and they're no bigger than two metres.

It's not necessary to take 100% of Russian refinery capacity offline for years. Ukraine just needs to take enough of it offline to make consumption (even after rationing) outstrip supply, for long enough to plan, prepare, and launch their next strike against each particular target. Which is what they've been doing.

A refinery is a big target, that needs a huge amount of munitions to completely destroy. But they have small but targettable weaknesses, which if hit can render the entire installation impotent.

And no Bothans had to die to bring Ukraine this information.

The deep strike drones are at best guided by AI. They won't have the precision of a human controller.

 

[bilby]

The deep strike drones are at best guided by AI. They won't have the precision of a human controller.

They appear to have sufficient precision. More than that would be wasted.

 

[steve_bank]

Inertial navigation can get you close, then a terminal guidance system zeros in. To hit an oil refinery does not take precise accuracy.

Back in the 80s there was a library of high resolution images of the Earth for terrain following.

AI Overview
Yes, while many basic or early Ukrainian drones were built using standard civilian GPS and GNSS modules, the heavy use of Russian electronic warfare (EW) has forced Ukraine to rapidly shift toward GPS-independent or GPS-resilient navigation.Because Russian forces routinely jam and spoof satellite signals over the battlefield, Ukrainian drones have adapted through the following technologies:Visual/Optical Navigation (AI Terrain Matching): Systems like Ukraine’s "Eagle Eyes" software use onboard AI and cameras to continuously scan the terrain and compare it against preloaded high-resolution satellite imagery or maps built by reconnaissance aircraft.Visual Odometry: Utilizing sensors originally designed for NASA’s Mars helicopters, drones use computer vision models to track their movement over the landscape without needing external satellite input.Inertial Navigation Systems (INS): Dead-reckoning systems that use gyroscopes and accelerometers to calculate the drone's position, speed, and direction relative to its launch point.For short-range, First-Person View (FPV) kamikaze drones, operators also manually fly drones by recognizing standout visual landmarks on the ground (like peculiar buildings, rivers, or roads) when electronic systems are compromised.Would you like to know more about how Ukraine is using AI to target moving vehicles without GPS, or are you interested in how jamming affects long-range drones? Let me know!

 

[bilby]

To hit an oil refinery does not take precise accuracy.

No, but to hit a specific cracker or reformer within that refinery does.

 

[steve_bank]

The drones do not have to fly one leg.

Just guessing how they do it. Use inertial nav to get close to a way point with known latitude and longitude. Use video to find the way point like a mountain or hill, fly over it and reset the inertial nav to the way point.

The drones use infrared video.

AI Overview
Ukraine's long-range drones (like the AQ-400 Scythe or custom variants) navigate vast distances—up to 1,000 to 2,500 km—by relying on pre-programmed inertial guidance and satellite links, bypassing Russian electronic warfare (EW) using onboard Artificial Intelligence (AI) and optical terrain-matching.

AI Overview
Ukrainian FPV (first-person view) drones use AI-powered computer vision and optical lock-on modules (such as the Ukrainian-made TFL-1 system) for autonomous terminal guidance.Once the human pilot identifies and locks onto an enemy target, the onboard AI takes over steering during the final 50 to 500 meters of flight. This creates a "fire-and-forget" capability. The system tracks the target's movement using image recognition, ensuring high-precision strikes even when the drone enters "radio shadows" or experiences heavy Russian electronic warfare (EW) jamming.

In the VN War I was a Navy aviation fire control technician..

No microprocessors all analog.

Yes, the Grumman A-6 Intruder relied heavily on inertial guidance. Its revolutionary DIANE (Digital Integrated Attack and Navigation Equipment) suite integrated an inertial navigation system—such as the Litton AN/ASN-31—with radars and a ballistics computer to allow autonomous all-weather bombing and navigation.

The system used Doppler radar to continuously provide updates to the inertial platform, ensuring pinpoint accuracy even in pitch-black conditions or severe weather. Later variants, like the A-6E, incorporated the CAINS (Carrier Aircraft Inertial Navigation System) for even greater navigation and strike precision.

Military hardware and weaponss brings out creativity. When the war ends all that engineering experience will help get their economy going.

 

[Bronzeage]

So after the NATO meeting in Türkiye, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives everyone a parting gift, a handgun and ammunition. The article in Reuters runs through the various responses. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said and I’m paraphrasing, all I got him was maple syrup.
https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/turkeys-erdogan-gives-nato-leaders-revolver-conundrum-after-summit-2026-07-09/

I'm trying to see the downside of Trump having a loaded pistol and so far, I don't see it.

Might shoot a Secret Service agent, might shoot a reporter. Other than that, he's fired anyone that I would care if he put a hole in.

By law, if the value pistol and the ammo exceeds $480, it belongs to the American people. It's not like it's a 747 or something.

 

[steve_bank]

AGM-62 Walleye - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The AGM-62 Walleye is a television-guided glide bomb which was produced by Martin Marietta and used by the United States Armed Forces from the 1960s-1990s. The Walleye I had a 825 lb (374 kg) high-explosive warhead;[1] the later Walleye II "Fat Albert" version had a 2,000 pound warhead and the ability to replace that with a W72 nuclear warhead.

The AGM designation of the Walleye as an "air-to-ground missile" is a misnomer, as it is an unpowered bomb with guidance avionics, similar to the more modern GBU-15. The Walleye was superseded by the AGM-65 Maverick, which did include a rocket motor and was thus a missile.

The Walleye was the first of a family of precision-guided munitions designed to hit targets with minimal collateral damage. This "smart bomb" had no propulsion system, but it could be maneuvered via a television guidance system during its glide from an aircraft to the target. As a pilot dived towards a target, a television camera in the nose of the bomb transmitted images to a monitor in the cockpit. Once the pilot acquired a sharp image of the target on his screen, he designated an aim point and released the bomb, which would continue flying toward the designated target on its own. The bomb was a true fire-and-forget system because once launched, the plane could immediately turn away from the aim point. The Walleye maneuvered itself using four large fins. Later versions employed an extended range data link that let pilots keep flying the weapon after its release, and even change aim points during flight (command guidance).

 

[bilby]

So after the NATO meeting in Türkiye, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives everyone a parting gift, a handgun and ammunition. The article in Reuters runs through the various responses. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said and I’m paraphrasing, all I got him was maple syrup.
https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/turkeys-erdogan-gives-nato-leaders-revolver-conundrum-after-summit-2026-07-09/

I'm trying to see the downside of Trump having a loaded pistol and so far, I don't see it.

Might shoot a Secret Service agent, might shoot a reporter. Other than that, he's fired anyone that I would care if he put a hole in.

By law, if the value pistol and the ammo exceeds $480, it belongs to the American people. It's not like it's a 747 or something.

I think the American people have quite enough pistols and ammo already.

 

[Bronzeage]

So after the NATO meeting in Türkiye, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives everyone a parting gift, a handgun and ammunition. The article in Reuters runs through the various responses. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said and I’m paraphrasing, all I got him was maple syrup.
https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/turkeys-erdogan-gives-nato-leaders-revolver-conundrum-after-summit-2026-07-09/

I'm trying to see the downside of Trump having a loaded pistol and so far, I don't see it.

Might shoot a Secret Service agent, might shoot a reporter. Other than that, he's fired anyone that I would care if he put a hole in.

By law, if the value pistol and the ammo exceeds $480, it belongs to the American people. It's not like it's a 747 or something.

I think the American people have quite enough pistols and ammo already.

Apparently, giving firearms out as party favors is a European thing.

 

[bilby]

So after the NATO meeting in Türkiye, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives everyone a parting gift, a handgun and ammunition. The article in Reuters runs through the various responses. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said and I’m paraphrasing, all I got him was maple syrup.
https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/turkeys-erdogan-gives-nato-leaders-revolver-conundrum-after-summit-2026-07-09/

I'm trying to see the downside of Trump having a loaded pistol and so far, I don't see it.

Might shoot a Secret Service agent, might shoot a reporter. Other than that, he's fired anyone that I would care if he put a hole in.

By law, if the value pistol and the ammo exceeds $480, it belongs to the American people. It's not like it's a 747 or something.

I think the American people have quite enough pistols and ammo already.

Apparently, giving firearms out as party favors is a European thing.

Well most of Türkiye is in Asia, so I am doubtful.

They have been a candidate state for EU membership since 1999, but their application is frozen; Apparently, Europeans seem disinclined to count them as Europeans too.

I suspect Ukraine will be an EU member before Türkiye is.

Giving out firearms isn't a Ukrainian thing as far as I know, but they have been very generous in giving ammo as gifts to Russians. In large volumes. At muzzle velocity.


Hey, look at that, I accidentally re-railed the thread!

 

[Tigers!]

I hear that Russians are blaming the fuel shortages on government corruption.

They don't know about the attacks on the refineries, so they can't understand how fuel is so scarce, and suspect that corrupt officials are holding it back to sell at inflated prices on the black market.

In many areas of Russia how could they not know about the attacks? Are their skylines usually smoky?

 

[steve_bank]

From reporting there are Russians who do not understand the connection between fuel shortages and the w

Media is state controlled.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I hear that Russians are blaming the fuel shortages on government corruption.

They don't know about the attacks on the refineries, so they can't understand how fuel is so scarce, and suspect that corrupt officials are holding it back to sell at inflated prices on the black market.

In many areas of Russia how could they not know about the attacks? Are their skylines usually smoky?

Kazakhstan Set up 59 police check points at the border to stop the illegal transport of gasoline. Individuals caught smuggling gasoline out of the country rose sharply in June.
I think they know.