If Biden Falls, Who Will Rise?

[Jolly_Penguin]

Biden has been making a lot of gaffes, even more than usual, and his poll numbers have been in steady decline.

If he falls apart within the next year or so, who do you think will rise up and take on the mantle of the moderate or corporate democrats? Or will nobody and it become a cake walk for Bernie/Warren?

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Warren. It will certainly be Warren.

For most of her career she would have been considered a "right leaning Democrat", and I would describe her as a corporate Democrat. Much like most of the party leadership, like Biden, the Clintons, Pelosi, etc. She has repositioned herself to look more progressive to appeal to the Bernie fringe of the party. Now that Gabbard has knocked Harris out there is only one backup candidate. Her corporate Democrat positions make her sufficiently appealing to the party leadership that they will allow her to take the nomination if Biden doesn't make it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Biden has been making a lot of gaffes, even more than usual, and his poll numbers have been in steady decline.

Decline, but not much of a decline. He has said a lot of silly things, and it isn't affecting him as much as it would normally affect a candidate.

If he falls apart within the next year or so, who do you think will rise up and take on the mantle of the moderate or corporate democrats? Or will nobody and it become a cake walk for Bernie/Warren?

Harris did well in the debate, but she is trailing off again as people forget about the debate. I still think she is the main competition for Warren / Sanders / Biden, with Cory Booker being a far outlier.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Harris did well at being demolished.

 

[Elixir]

Warren. It will certainly be Warren.

For most of her career she would have been considered a "right leaning Democrat", and I would describe her as a corporate Democrat. Much like most of the party leadership, like Biden, the Clintons, Pelosi, etc. She has repositioned herself to look more progressive to appeal to the Bernie fringe of the party. Now that Gabbard has knocked Harris out there is only one backup candidate. Her corporate Democrat positions make her sufficiently appealing to the party leadership that they will allow her to take the nomination if Biden doesn't make it.

IMO your conclusion is correct even if some of your "reasoning" is suspect.
I hate it when I agree with you Jason.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Warren. It will certainly be Warren.

For most of her career she would have been considered a "right leaning Democrat", and I would describe her as a corporate Democrat. Much like most of the party leadership, like Biden, the Clintons, Pelosi, etc. She has repositioned herself to look more progressive to appeal to the Bernie fringe of the party. Now that Gabbard has knocked Harris out there is only one backup candidate. Her corporate Democrat positions make her sufficiently appealing to the party leadership that they will allow her to take the nomination if Biden doesn't make it.

IMO your conclusion is correct even if some of your "reasoning" is suspect.
I hate it when I agree with you Jason.

You're allowed to be right occasionally.

 

[Toni]

Harris did well at being demolished.

Really? You think Gabbard brought Harris down?

Wow.

 

[Toni]

Biden has been making a lot of gaffes, even more than usual, and his poll numbers have been in steady decline.

Decline, but not much of a decline. He has said a lot of silly things, and it isn't affecting him as much as it would normally affect a candidate.

If he falls apart within the next year or so, who do you think will rise up and take on the mantle of the moderate or corporate democrats? Or will nobody and it become a cake walk for Bernie/Warren?

Harris did well in the debate, but she is trailing off again as people forget about the debate. I still think she is the main competition for Warren / Sanders / Biden, with Cory Booker being a far outlier.

My top 4 are Warren/ Booker/ Harris with Klobuchar being a distant 3rd. I think Warren will end up with the nomination but it should be Harris.

Biden is showing his age badly. Warren is also older than ideal but she seems to be holding up much better than Sanders, Biden or d-Trump.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Warren. It will certainly be Warren.

For most of her career she would have been considered a "right leaning Democrat", and I would describe her as a corporate Democrat. Much like most of the party leadership, like Biden, the Clintons, Pelosi, etc.

Based on what exactly? I'm still uncertain who Warren actually is. She is a darling of the progressive left, and I have no idea why.

She has repositioned herself to look more progressive to appeal to the Bernie fringe of the party. Now that Gabbard has knocked Harris out there is only one backup candidate. Her corporate Democrat positions make her sufficiently appealing to the party leadership that they will allow her to take the nomination if Biden doesn't make it.

The funny thing is, you seem to be one of the only people talking about Gabbard.

 

[Keith&Co.]

Biden Falls sounds like a small town in one of the flyover states...
Or a C&W song.
Bidin' my time
In Biden Falls,
Nursing a beer,
'Til my woman calls...

 

[Derec]

My top 4 are Warren/ Booker/ Harris with Klobuchar being a distant 3rd. I think Warren will end up with the nomination

I also fear that Warren will end up with the nomination. She is way too far left for me, and she is fond of playing identity politics. But she is in a separate lane from Biden and other moderates.
I think you may be underestimating Klobuchar, esp. if the moderate lane opens up. A lot of the moderates dropped out (Hicknlooper) or failed to make the next debate (Bennett, Bullock). Buttigieg could also contest the moderate lane and he is not even on your list.

but it should be Harris

I think Kamala Harris played her race exactly wrong. Her background as prosecutor lent itself to a run in the moderate lane. But she saw Biden hogging that lane and saw him as an insurmountable obstacle. Had she bided (no pun intended) her time, she could have used her relative youth to contrast herself against Biden whose age is becoming more and more apparent as the race drags on.
She could have also appealed at her ancestry - Jamaican father, Indian mother, and family - white husband - as a vehicle to show unity in diversity.
Instead, she decided to cast herself as the "great black hope" by attacking Biden on race by renewing a debate on busing from the 70s. It seemed to work initially but then people remembered why the busing was so unpopular in its heyday and why it ultimately failed, and also saw her attacks on Biden as unfair, and her numbers started to slip.
In addition to that, her casting herself as some sort of race warrior (remember, she - as well as Warren - called the justified shooting of Michael Brown "murder") opened her flank to the attack by Gabbard on her record as a prosecutor and AG, which was much criticized for years by the more "woke" parts of the black community, first and foremost the "Black Lives Matter" types.
While I think Harris could come back if Biden falters by being more her authentic self, the almost fatal wounds to her campaign have been self-inflicted.

Biden is showing his age badly. Warren is also older than ideal but she seems to be holding up much better than Sanders, Biden or d-Trump.

She is also significantly younger than them.

 

[Toni]

Klobuchar has lack of national name recognition going against her. Biden joined the race after Kamala Harris’s candidacy was well established so I don’t think she’s couching anything in response to Biden.

Harris does indeed have mixed race heritage. If she were not well known and were pulled over in a traffic stop, she would be seen and treated as black, just as she would be if she entered a retail establishment. Ask almost any American what race someone from Jamaica is and you will almost certainly get ‘black’ as the response. I would give that answer.

Thanks for not pointing out my typo/math mistake. I meant that Klobuchar was my fourth choice. She’s smart, hard working and really smart. I don’t think she has the national presence to get the nomination, much less win.

 

[Horatio Parker]

Warren. It will certainly be Warren.

For most of her career she would have been considered a "right leaning Democrat", and I would describe her as a corporate Democrat. Much like most of the party leadership, like Biden, the Clintons, Pelosi, etc. She has repositioned herself to look more progressive to appeal to the Bernie fringe of the party. Now that Gabbard has knocked Harris out there is only one backup candidate. Her corporate Democrat positions make her sufficiently appealing to the party leadership that they will allow her to take the nomination if Biden doesn't make it.

I agree Warren looks like a comer. But I disagree that her repositioning is recent. It dates to the '08 financial crisis, long before Sanders announced for Prez.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Biden has been making a lot of gaffes, even more than usual, and his poll numbers have been in steady decline.

If he falls apart within the next year or so, who do you think will rise up and take on the mantle of the moderate or corporate democrats? Or will nobody and it become a cake walk for Bernie/Warren?

If Biden fails, Warren. Bernie has his supporters, but he is not a Democrat. And the full Democratic party system will be more inclined to support a long time loyal Democrat, in this case, Warren. This won't hurt Sanders so much as help Warren.

2020 will be the year of the angry women voters. They are so far strongly anti-Trump collectively. But this faction has not yet decided who to go for in the primaries.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Decline, but not much of a decline. He has said a lot of silly things, and it isn't affecting him as much as it would normally affect a candidate.

Harris did well in the debate, but she is trailing off again as people forget about the debate. I still think she is the main competition for Warren / Sanders / Biden, with Cory Booker being a far outlier.

My top 4 are Warren/ Booker/ Harris with Klobuchar being a distant 3rd. I think Warren will end up with the nomination but it should be Harris.

Biden is showing his age badly. Warren is also older than ideal but she seems to be holding up much better than Sanders, Biden or d-Trump.

I would prefer Bernie or Yang to Warren, but Warren would be my third pick, so I would be happy if she wins. She'll certainly make a much much better first female president than Hillary would have. I do worry about her vs Trump though. That Pocahontas thing has traction. She never should have done that test.

Booker and Harris strike me as in it for the money and fame and power. Definitely corporate establishment democrats who will sell out at the first opportunity. Klobuchar I don't know enough about to say.

 

[Ford]

I'm not sure I buy your characterization, but if Biden were to be hit by a bus tomorrow, I'd hope for either Warren or Buttigieg to be the nominee.

Both are very intelligent, well educated, and have actual policy proposals in their plans. One thing I like about Pete (aside from the fact that a gay veteran President would make the right wing's head collectively explode) is that when he's asked a direct question, he doesn't default to a rehearsed talking point that doesn't answer the question.

Most (if not all) politicians on a national level revert to talking points when asked a direct question. "Well that's a great question, Chris, but let me tell you about my plan to (solve unrelated problem)." Yes, he has his stock of rehearsed answers, but he also seems to genuinely try to provide an answer to the question he's asked rather than "staying on message."

I mean, Bernie falls back on his talking points about the 1 percent constantly. Pete - when asked about his city's police problem - basically said "I fucked up." That's pretty refreshing.

 

[Politesse]

Decline, but not much of a decline. He has said a lot of silly things, and it isn't affecting him as much as it would normally affect a candidate.

Harris did well in the debate, but she is trailing off again as people forget about the debate. I still think she is the main competition for Warren / Sanders / Biden, with Cory Booker being a far outlier.

My top 4 are Warren/ Booker/ Harris with Klobuchar being a distant 3rd. I think Warren will end up with the nomination but it should be Harris.

Biden is showing his age badly. Warren is also older than ideal but she seems to be holding up much better than Sanders, Biden or d-Trump.

I would prefer Bernie or Yang to Warren, but Warren would be my third pick, so I would be happy if she wins. She'll certainly make a much much better first female president than Hillary would have. I do worry about her vs Trump though. That Pocahontas thing has traction. She never should have done that test.

On, the other hand, she called the bluff and did the apology tour well in advance of the election. I suspect the public in general is tired of hearing the Pocahontas crap. How much endless traction can Trump really get out of it?

 

[barbos]

Yeah, what happened to Harris? I looked and she is 7?%???

 

[southernhybrid]

Actually, other than one tiny outlier poll, Biden's numbers have remained pretty steady. People who like him don't give a shit about his gaffes. But, if it's not Biden, it will likely be Warren, imo. I really don't care who it is at this point, as anyone is far better than Trump. I'm not worried about how far left Warren' plans are it's highly unlikely any of them will ever be passed into law. Well over half of the Democrats in Congress are moderates and even if the Dems were to take back the Senate, it will be extremely difficult to get Warren's plans passed. She has a history of compromising, and I think if she becomes president, she knows she will need to compromise. Anybody else 2020 is my motto. So far, it looks as if Trump will go down in defeat regardless of which candidate becomes the nominee.

 

[Toni]

Actually, other than one tiny outlier poll, Biden's numbers have remained pretty steady. People who like him don't give a shit about his gaffes. But, if it's not Biden, it will likely be Warren, imo. I really don't care who it is at this point, as anyone is far better than Trump. I'm not worried about how far left Warren' plans are it's highly unlikely any of them will ever be passed into law. Well over half of the Democrats in Congress are moderates and even if the Dems were to take back the Senate, it will be extremely difficult to get Warren's plans passed. She has a history of compromising, and I think if she becomes president, she knows she will need to compromise. Anybody else 2020 is my motto. So far, it looks as if Trump will go down in defeat regardless of which candidate becomes the nominee.

Tulsi Gabbard would not be better than Trump. Different issues but her strings are pulled by foreign powers and special interests and she has zero internal core values except power and money. She's younger and prettier but so what? Trump at her age would not have been a better POTUS.