Let's Face It...Trump is going to Win.

[HaRaAYaH]

At his peak, Clinton was still winning the election. This would be shifting it to a larger victory.

Trump was just about even nationally. He was surging. W/O the debate he would have been ahead. Not saying it's my preference, just the way I read the tea levels.

 

[maxparrish]

I hate agreeing with Max. There is something unnatural about, something supernatural about it, like the breaking of seventh seal and the Second Coming

I REALLY hate agreeing with Max as much as I do about the current Presidential election.

Now I am not ready to declare Trump the winner but I gotta say, shit don't look good for Clinton.

Hey, I understand. When events transpire such that you and I agree I have no doubt that Armageddon is upon us. Odd that two individuals of extremely polarized views can see "666" while half of the middling moderates of the US see nothing but a guy with "good intentions" whose going to make "make America Great Again".

I'm going to have to check Revelations to see what comes next.

 

[Elixir]

I'm going to have to check Revelations to see what comes next.

It ain't pretty!

 

[Jayjay]

I think there are going to be trumpets? Or horsemen or some other circus acts.

Anyway it seems my worries about the debate helping Trump were unfounded. Fivethirtyeight bumped H-Rod from 55/45 to 60/40 based on recent polls.

 

[Sea of red]

As I said both here and on another forum, Clinton was the worst choice for the Democrats. People simply hate her 'just because' even before her minor scandals.

 

[maxparrish]

I think there are going to be trumpets? Or horsemen or some other circus acts.

Anyway it seems my worries about the debate helping Trump were unfounded. Fivethirtyeight bumped H-Rod from 55/45 to 60/40 based on recent polls.

Maybe they were unfounded...maybe not. Trump had Hillary on the ropes for the first 20 minutes or so, hammering on themes like "you had 30 years to make you ideas work"...yada yada. Hillary, not being an adept impromptu speaker (e.g. "basket full of deplorables) didn't have a clever response.

On the other hand he has never had to debate more than 10 to 20 minutes (most of the air-time in the GOP debates was sucked up having so many other contenders). Once Trump ran out of his canned material, he reverted to type and had a pathological need to make the debate about him (e.g. how mean Hillaries ads were, Rosie O'Donnell, etc.) and show all how superficial and shallow he is.

None the less, I do fear that sooner or later he will absorb his handlers training. He's a slow learner BUT he has shown some discipline and polish since the new campaign staff took over. If they find a way to get him to stay on the script, and relentlessly hammer on themes more than 20 minutes, she could be in for a rough time.

IMO, if Trump manages to demonstrate that he has the temperament and 'right attitude' to be President in the next two debates...he will win. If not, he will lose.

PS - Yes, Hillary got a bounce of 1-4 points. But as Nate Silver has warned, such bounces only last a week or two. The next debate, the townhall, will tell us more. I expect Trump to do much better in that format, and be better prepared.

 

[Jayjay]

PS - Yes, Hillary got a bounce of 1-4 points. But as Nate Silver has warned, such bounces only last a week or two. The next debate, the townhall, will tell us more. I expect Trump to do much better in that format, and be better prepared.

I was referring to the prediction model, which I presume takes into account such bounces in raw data. The actual poll results i.e. the "now-cast" model on 538 went up by a full 10 points I think.

 

[maxparrish]

PS - Yes, Hillary got a bounce of 1-4 points. But as Nate Silver has warned, such bounces only last a week or two. The next debate, the townhall, will tell us more. I expect Trump to do much better in that format, and be better prepared.

I was referring to the prediction model, which I presume takes into account such bounces in raw data. The actual poll results i.e. the "now-cast" model on 538 went up by a full 10 points I think.

The probability model did go up 10-11 points...meaning that if the election were held Trump would have a one in three chance of winning. However, one must remember that a shift of a few national polling points would be reflected in dramatically altered probabilities. So for the moment, Clinton is secure.

None the less, the second and third debates (as Obama demonstrated) can wash away Clinton's gains. If so, the election would then depend on turnout. And with an enthusiasm gap of 10 points (about the same as the 2014 elections) things would look gloomy for Democrats.

And an October surprise? With Putin manipulating the election (and Wikileaks claiming it will have more releases before the election)...well, Clinton can easily lose.

 

[Shadowy Man]

IMO, if Trump manages to demonstrate that he has the temperament and 'right attitude' to be President in the next two debates...he will win. If not, he will lose.

Yes, because decades of temperament can be changed in just a couple of weeks. Anyone who believes in any "changes" Trump exhibits in the next couple of weeks is utterly hoodwinked.

 

[Artemus]

IMO, if Trump manages to demonstrate that he has the temperament and 'right attitude' to be President in the next two debates...he will win. If not, he will lose.

Yes, because decades of temperament can be changed in just a couple of weeks. Anyone who believes in any "changes" Trump exhibits in the next couple of weeks is utterly hoodwinked.

His overnight tweets have pretty much finished him, IMO. More and more outlets are finally stating the obvious today...he is seriously unfit to hold the position of president. Not even the general public will forget a second set of meltdowns like this, and unlike last time the press isn't going to let them forget now.

 

[Elixir]

His overnight tweets have pretty much finished him, IMO. More and more outlets are finally stating the obvious today...he is seriously unfit to hold the position of president. Not even the general public will forget a second set of meltdowns like this, and unlike last time the press isn't going to let them forget now.

Agree. USA Today came out blasting Trump today - an unprecedented move. Checking the Predictit site... trump's chances were pushing 40% with the gamblers before the debatacle, and fell a few points right away afterwards. But over the last few days he has been vigorously chipping away at himself, and Miss Universe seems to have helped him run his chances down into the 20's in the minds of the players.

Still, he is going to have to keep up the good (bad) work to lose the election and there's a long way to go.

 

[fromderinside]

Big Mo has been on Trump's side since Sept 3rd. Any day now, either Colorado, NH, or Penn will start leaning Trump (most likely within 10 days or less).

Poor Joe Biden, the guy that could have stomped Trump.

Eyup. Right again. Big Mo is dead long live the new big Mo. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ 67-33 Clinton and moving away from Trump fast. FL and NV are back in Clinton column, NC back to 50-50 and Ohio for Trump (hear the thump) is dropping like a rock.

Doncha luvit, doncha luvit, doncha just luvit.

maxparrish does tongue in cheek about as well as anyone.

 

[blastula]

As I may have noted here earlier, the replacement of Manafort with Ailes, Bannon, and Kellyann Conway turned the Trump campaign around. In particular Ailes and Conway seem to have found a way to make Trump look like a normal human being most (but not all) the time.

After the debate there were reports that the Trump children were unhappy with the campaign leadership (they can't accept that the main problem is the candidate). And it looks like Trump has just decided to do it his way since the debate. He's still talking about Machado even today, he will not let it go.

 

[arkirk]

As I may have noted here earlier, the replacement of Manafort with Ailes, Bannon, and Kellyann Conway turned the Trump campaign around. In particular Ailes and Conway seem to have found a way to make Trump look like a normal human being most (but not all) the time.

After the debate there were reports that the Trump children were unhappy with the campaign leadership (they can't accept that the main problem is the candidate). And it looks like Trump has just decided to do it his way since the debate. He's still talking about Machado even today, he will not let it go.

Let's face it. It is a face off between a slug and a caterpillar with real issues Americans have to live with clearly OFF THE TABLE. SNAFU best describes our political process. The only party with a cohesive policy platform is the Green Party and they have been shoved to the side by the creepy duo you see slugging it out on the basis of who can find the foulest things to say about his/her opponent.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

After the debate there were reports that the Trump children were unhappy with the campaign leadership (they can't accept that the main problem is the candidate). And it looks like Trump has just decided to do it his way since the debate. He's still talking about Machado even today, he will not let it go.

Let's face it. It is a face off between a slug and a caterpillar with real issues Americans have to live with clearly OFF THE TABLE. SNAFU best describes our political process. The only party with a cohesive policy platform is the Green Party and they have been shoved to the side by the creepy duo you see slugging it out on the basis of who can find the foulest things to say about his/her opponent.

Supreme court choices. Possibly up to 4. Plus 53 unfilled federal judge positions. Enough said. Vote for somebody else than Clinton, help elect some rather bad judges if she loses. You will live with them for the rest of your life.

 

[blastula]

After the debate there were reports that the Trump children were unhappy with the campaign leadership (they can't accept that the main problem is the candidate). And it looks like Trump has just decided to do it his way since the debate. He's still talking about Machado even today, he will not let it go.

Let's face it. It is a face off between a slug and a caterpillar with real issues Americans have to live with clearly OFF THE TABLE. SNAFU best describes our political process. The only party with a cohesive policy platform is the Green Party and they have been shoved to the side by the creepy duo you see slugging it out on the basis of who can find the foulest things to say about his/her opponent.

Oh brother, Saint Stein criticizes other candidates too. She doesn't just talk policy.

 

[Elixir]

Let's face it. It is a face off between a slug and a caterpillar with real issues Americans have to live with clearly OFF THE TABLE. SNAFU best describes our political process. The only party with a cohesive policy platform is the Green Party and they have been shoved to the side by the creepy duo you see slugging it out on the basis of who can find the foulest things to say about his/her opponent.

Oh brother, Saint Stein criticizes other candidates too. She doesn't just talk policy.

And she's a science-denyer. That takes her and her "party" completely off the table for me.

 

[blastula]

She probably knows better, but is dishonestly pandering to her base. Welcome to politics.

 

[maxparrish]

Big Mo has been on Trump's side since Sept 3rd. Any day now, either Colorado, NH, or Penn will start leaning Trump (most likely within 10 days or less).

Poor Joe Biden, the guy that could have stomped Trump.

Eyup. Right again. Big Mo is dead long live the new big Mo. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ 67-33 Clinton and moving away from Trump fast. FL and NV are back in Clinton column, NC back to 50-50 and Ohio for Trump (hear the thump) is dropping like a rock.

Doncha luvit, doncha luvit, doncha just luvit.

maxparrish does tongue in cheek about as well as anyone.

Okay, this is one of those extremely rare occasions (like once a year) I am mistaken - it's not easy competing with Rush in being 98.9 percent accurate (see "Cookthebooks.com").

Yep, I underestimated the damage Trump did to himself in losing the debate...by now I figured everyone had made up their mind and a shift of one to two points was the best that could be hoped for. Besides, that's what Larry Sabato said, and he makes a lot more money than me.

Nate Silver is also a tad surprised that the battleground state shift is in his upper range for Clinton. It may well be that Trump has started his downward journey on the "Trump Implosion Cycle" (Every other month he is either swinging hi or low). Climbing months for Trump were May, July, September...rotten months were June, August, and perhaps October?

If so, expect Trump to start his rebound on November 3rd...leaving little time to catch up.

Still when it comes to Trump what goes down must come up - so we shall see.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Just listening to MSNBC and heard about a poll in Detroit. Clinton - 90%, Trump -0%. Yes, 0%

Whup it on 'em, Donny!