Moved Live Trump Trial Updates

[Copernicus]

It will be interesting to see whether Trump still manages to get a hung jury out of all of this. A MAGA ringer on the jury could use the gotcha moment when it appeared that Cohen might have been mistaken about talking to Trump on one call that he made while contacting him through Schiller's phone. Everyone in the press is focused on that one phone call as if it would make or break the case, but it seems unlikely that a jury would acquit on all 34 counts because of that, given all the corroborating testimony. A MAGA jurist would just need some excuse to cling to, and Costello, the final witness, was practically a prosecution witness after today's testimony.

I'm not so certain that a "MAGA ringer" on the jury would be present, let alone single-handedly cause a hung jury. The jurors (and alternates) were agreed upon by both the prosecution and the defense. I don't know that a "Trump can never do anything wrong and I will never change my mind" juror would survive the selection process. And if by chance one of the red hat-wearing folks who show up for his rallies somehow managed to get on a jury in New York, even some of them seem to be able to admit that Trump has committed crimes when pressed. It's just that they don't care. If the question is narrowly "did he commit crimes here?" rather than "do you still support him regardless?" then it is possible that one of them might concede the point in deliberation.

In any case, even if he's convicted on most or even all counts, I very much doubt he'll see a minute of jail time, and the verdict will be appealed until such time as the Sun turns into a red giant and swallows this island Earth.

I agree that a MAGA ringer on the jury is unlikely, but there are other possibilities why a juror might desperately want to avoid a guilty verdict. Just being a member of that jury takes courage, given the possible consequences of a conviction for anyone connected with it. All of the jurors will ultimately be known and possibly doxxed. Their family members and inner circle of friends are almost certain to know who they are at this point. Trump knows how intimidation works, and the reason for the gag order was that he was already working that angle. Not just on the jury, but on prosecutors and court employees also. It is possible that one or more jurors will get cold feet about convicting a former president, just as so many Republican politicians have learned not to become a target for MAGA revenge hounds.

 

[ZiprHead]

It will be interesting to see whether Trump still manages to get a hung jury out of all of this. A MAGA ringer on the jury could use the gotcha moment when it appeared that Cohen might have been mistaken about talking to Trump on one call that he made while contacting him through Schiller's phone. Everyone in the press is focused on that one phone call as if it would make or break the case, but it seems unlikely that a jury would acquit on all 34 counts because of that, given all the corroborating testimony. A MAGA jurist would just need some excuse to cling to, and Costello, the final witness, was practically a prosecution witness after today's testimony.

Especially since there's a photograph of Trump standing next to Schiller at about the same time the call was made.

 

[robnisch]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4675385-republican-ogles-let-trump-speak-act-ban-gag-orders/

An other legal expert in congress.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

In closing arguments, Trump's lawyers say he is the victim in all of this and that each of the jurors should pay him $2 million each to save America.

 

[ZiprHead]

In closing arguments, Trump's lawyers say he is the victim in all of this and that each of the jurors should pay him $2 million each to save America.

Would have been better if Trump's lawyer said Trump would pay each of the jurors the 2 million for not guilty verdicts.

 

[Shadowy Man]

In closing arguments, Trump's lawyers say he is the victim in all of this and that each of the jurors should pay him $2 million each to save America.

Would have been better if Trump's lawyer said Trump would pay each of the jurors the 2 million for not guilty verdicts.

They know better than to assume he'd pay up.

 

[Elixir]

In closing arguments, Trump's lawyers say he is the victim in all of this and that each of the jurors should pay him $2 million each to save America.

Would have been better if Trump's lawyer said Trump would pay each of the jurors the 2 million for not guilty verdicts.

Are you serious?
EJC gets $83m all for herself and he expects to buy the Whitehouse for under $25m? How about $20m for each juror?
Multibillionaire, remember? He has THOUSANDS of millions. He won’t miss a few hundred of them.

 

[Swammerdami]

Does Trump even want to be acquitted? If convicted, he will NOT be sentenced to prison and any fine will be small compared to the hundreds of millions in judgements he's already liable for. This leaves only community service as a possible punishment, and Trump would try to turn such "service" into campaign rallies.

How much flexibility does the judge have in imposing specific "community service"? I suppose anything involving significant physical exertion would be off-limits ("cruel and unusual") due to the criminal's age. I suppose the Secret Service must go wherever Trump goes; that limits the options.

Suggestions?

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Trump doesn't care if he's acquitted, it is a win for him either way. If he wins he can say "see, even a New York court with a corrupt judge and DA failed to convict me." If he loses he can say "they're trying to keep me off the campaign trail, they're afraid of me." Either way, he pushes a few more votes his way.

Those who hate Trump went into this case with high hopes. Now they're grasping for hope.

Also, and this needs to be remembered, what does the average person think of when you say "crime"? They think of theft, assault, rape, murder, kidnapping, etc. To them this looks like "he put numbers in the wrong column of the spreadsheet." Financial crimes of this sort don't register the same way. Now if he had stolen the money used to pay off Stormy Daniels, or if he was paying her off so she wouldn't accuse him of rape, that would register as a real crime to many people. Since he used his own money to pay her to keep quiet about a legal act, this doesn't seem nearly as bad to the masses.

 

[ZiprHead]

Does Trump even want to be acquitted? If convicted, he will NOT be sentenced to prison and any fine will be small compared to the hundreds of millions in judgements he's already liable for. This leaves only community service as a possible punishment, and Trump would try to turn such "service" into campaign rallies.

How much flexibility does the judge have in imposing specific "community service"? I suppose anything involving significant physical exertion would be off-limits ("cruel and unusual") due to the criminal's age. I suppose the Secret Service must go wherever Trump goes; that limits the options.

Suggestions?

Technically each guilty charge could get him three years behind bars. But that rarely happens. Six months house arrest is the best I can see him get, AFTER all the appeals.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Does Trump even want to be acquitted?

YES! While conviction is fundraisable, acquittal is worth more than gold.

How much flexibility does the judge have in imposing specific "community service"? I suppose anything involving significant physical exertion would be off-limits ("cruel and unusual") due to the criminal's age. I suppose the Secret Service must go wherever Trump goes; that limits the options.

I have no idea what the sentencing guidelines are, but I'm almost certain even with conviction on every count, prison is unlikely.

 

[ZiprHead]

Trump doesn't care if he's acquitted, it is a win for him either way. If he wins he can say "see, even a New York court with a corrupt judge and DA failed to convict me." If he loses he can say "they're trying to keep me off the campaign trail, they're afraid of me." Either way, he pushes a few more votes his way.

Those who hate Trump went into this case with high hopes. Now they're grasping for hope.

Also, and this needs to be remembered, what does the average person think of when you say "crime"? They think of theft, assault, rape, murder, kidnapping, etc. To them this looks like "he put numbers in the wrong column of the spreadsheet." Financial crimes of this sort don't register the same way. Now if he had stolen the money used to pay off Stormy Daniels, or if he was paying her off so she wouldn't accuse him of rape, that would register as a real crime to many people. Since he used his own money to pay her to keep quiet about a legal act, this doesn't seem nearly as bad to the masses.

Really? I think it would be great if more white collar criminals did real time. I think a lot of other people feel the same.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Also, and this needs to be remembered, what does the average person think of when you say "crime"? They think of theft, assault, rape, murder, kidnapping, etc. To them this looks like "he put numbers in the wrong column of the spreadsheet." Financial crimes of this sort don't register the same way.

this is why they are so prevalent and why the wealthy so brazenly commit them.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Well, he didn't embezzle, he didn't do insider trading, he didn't commit insurance fraud, he paid someone to keep quiet about a legal act.

That he put the numbers in the wrong column of the spreadsheet won't sell to Middle America.

 

[ZiprHead]

Well, he didn't embezzle, he didn't do insider trading, he didn't commit insurance fraud, he paid someone to keep quiet about a legal act.

That he put the numbers in the wrong column of the spreadsheet won't sell to Middle America.

It's so cute when you pretend you're not defending Trump while you are defending Trump.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Trump doesn't care if he's acquitted, it is a win for him either way. If he wins he can say "see, even a New York court with a corrupt judge and DA failed to convict me." If he loses he can say "they're trying to keep me off the campaign trail, they're afraid of me." Either way, he pushes a few more votes his way.

Those who hate Trump went into this case with high hopes. Now they're grasping for hope.

Also, and this needs to be remembered, what does the average person think of when you say "crime"? They think of theft, assault, rape, murder, kidnapping, etc. To them this looks like "he put numbers in the wrong column of the spreadsheet." Financial crimes of this sort don't register the same way. Now if he had stolen the money used to pay off Stormy Daniels, or if he was paying her off so she wouldn't accuse him of rape, that would register as a real crime to many people. Since he used his own money to pay her to keep quiet about a legal act, this doesn't seem nearly as bad to the masses.

Really? I think it would be great if more white collar criminals did real time. I think a lot of other people feel the same.

The thing is for most white collar criminals getting caught pretty much nukes their career. That's a big punishment that doesn't apply to those who don't already have a career.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Well, he didn't embezzle, he didn't do insider trading, he didn't commit insurance fraud, he paid someone to keep quiet about a legal act.

That he put the numbers in the wrong column of the spreadsheet won't sell to Middle America.

It's so cute when you pretend you're not defending Trump while you are defending Trump.

It's so cute when you see me pointing out that this will be a hard sell and you think it is defending Trump. Biden has obstacles to overcome if he is going to win, and you think pointing out those obstacles is supporting Trump.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

I see five possible outcomes. Which one do you think will happen?

1. He is found guilty of all charges. That means the court will have to figure out how to punish him. How could they send him to jail? What accommodations will be made for his secret service guards? Will they issue a million dollar fine? He'd laugh at that. House arrest to his luxurious mansion? There will be complaints that it isn't enough.

2. He is found guilty on one charge, symbolic punishment. Considering the nature of the charges, it would be hard to say he is only guilty of one, or even some, the charges are all very similar. A symbolic punishment would make a laughing stock of the court as well.

3. He is acquitted of all charges. Antifa has mostly peaceful protests and burns down their own neighborhoods for at least a week.

4. There is a Hung jury. We won't know the composition of hung jury, and jurors are not obligated to talk. It could be one MAGA holdout, it could be 1 TDS holdout, it could be a tie. We might never know. Then Bragg doesn't retry

5. There is a Hung jury. Bragg does retry

 

[TomC]

What accommodations will be made for his secret service guards?

Simple as I am, I don't see the problem with that.
Put him in solitary confinement, without Internet access, post a SS guard.
Easy Peasy.
If necessary, transfer him to a basement in Gitmo.
Tom

 

[Elixir]

If necessary, transfer him to a basement in Gitmo.

I’m sure it’s necessary.
Seriously I don’t care whether or not this crime gets Trump the punishment he deserves. I’m far more concerned about the rest of us getting the punishment Trumpsuckers deserve.