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Mueller investigation

Elixir said:
Trump is dumber than a box of rocks and more delusional than any of us might imagine.
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Well, that's fun to say and all, but he's not suicidal nor a cartoon character. He plays the fool when it suits him, but the evidence that he knows he's fucked is all over his tweets desperately trying to assure his loyalists that he's not fucked. That's not "delusional"; that's carefully crafted misdirection.

More importantly, however, is the fact that if he doesn't take a deal, he will be looking at the full weight of everyone that matters in government service demanding his head on a platter, not merely a "let's all just give him a cozy white guy's send off." Nixon worked with the intelligence community as co-conspirators, basically. Trump has repeatedly told them to go fuck themselves and that he is better than they and they're all fuckheads, etc. Trump has burned bridges with international glee (on instructions from Putin, no less).

So, again, it's not going to be "If I don't take the deal, they can't touch me because some meth heads in West Virginia really think I'm special."

He will likely convince himself that he can WIN in court, his SCOTUS picks will protect him etc.
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It won't ever reach the SCOTUS. If he doesn't take a deal, it will be death by firing squad, or its non-hyperbolic equivalent. And that will be exhaustively explained to him in terms even a cartoon character will be able to comprehend.

Only once he is incarcerated and no lawyer shows up to offer him a new way out, might he realize anything about the gravity of his situation.
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Well, again, that's cartoonish, but I guess certainly not outside the realm of possibilities. My take is that he's a bullshitter and a coward, but he's still tethered to reality. There is a difference between what a clown does on camera and what they do off camera. From all accounts so far leaked, he is very aware off camera that his on camera clowning isn't working.
 
Koyaanisqatsi said:
From all accounts so far leaked, he is very aware off camera that his on camera clowning isn't working.
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?
Really? Did you watch yesterday's "Cabinet Meeting"? If he knew it wasn't working, why would he offer up yet another heaping serving of self-aggrandizing bullshit?
 
I think he's well aware, but his responses are anything but carefully crafted. If anything, they are ham fisted, awkward, and impulsively crafted.

He's basically flinging poop as usual, just upping the scale of crazy, that's all.

What he's doing is referred to as "extinction bursts" to the people who study and understand malignant narcissistic personality disorder. The usual mechanisms that have allowed him to get away with everything in the past are becoming less and less effective in giving him back what he wants - validation, praise, and protection from accountability.

Since he has virtually no other skills for dealing with the world, the usual lying, blaming, abuse, insults, infantile reactions, wild stories, excuses, etc., are only going to escalate until he either becomes self aware and transformed into a sane person or loses everything. I know which one my money's on.
 
Elixir said:
Koyaanisqatsi said:
From all accounts so far leaked, he is very aware off camera that his on camera clowning isn't working.
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?
Really? Did you watch yesterday's "Cabinet Meeting"? If he knew it wasn't working, why would he offer up yet another heaping serving of self-aggrandizing bullshit?
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He has no other schtick to present. That doesn't mean he's not aware it's not working.

By "not working" I mean among the people that matter, not among his idiotic base. They don't matter. They have never mattered (other than to him as an audience starved D-list celebrity). They only make up about 5% (if that) of all Americans and only about 10-15% of his voting bloc.

What mattered to Republican Senators was the swing and what happened to the House in 2018 and what will in turn happen to them in 2020 if they are still affiliated in any way with Trump. His backing has become toxic. And, again, that is NOW--before the real shit show begins. But that doesn't mean he can just change his on-camera persona 180 degrees.

Doubling down on humiliating the very people that are about to stab him in the back is likewise a time-honored tradition. Indeed, the fact that he's doubling down only serves to further prove--imo--that he knows damn well who will be shiving him in the end. He's getting his last licks in before the axe falls.

And if by some miracle he really is so mentally impaired as to not see any of the writing on the wall to take the last possible out before his head gets chopped off (and yes, I concede, it's a possibility), then more than likely it will be as I (and others) pointed out long ago; the insistence of his family (Ivanka, primarily) that he take a deal.

But, hey, if he doesn't, it just means more carnival for the rest of us. Frankly, I hope he takes the deal so that the adults can all get back to work and we can finally put this idiotic shitshow to bed. There are many lives at stake in all of this, not just a figurative danse macabre.
 
Koyaanisqatsi said:
Elixir said:
Koyaanisqatsi said:
From all accounts so far leaked, he is very aware off camera that his on camera clowning isn't working.
Click to expand...

?
Really? Did you watch yesterday's "Cabinet Meeting"? If he knew it wasn't working, why would he offer up yet another heaping serving of self-aggrandizing bullshit?
Click to expand...

He has no other schtick to present. That doesn't mean he's not aware it's not working.

By "not working" I mean among the people that matter, not among his idiotic base. They don't matter. They have never mattered (other than to him as an audience starved D-list celebrity). They only make up about 5% (if that) of all Americans and only about 10-15% of his voting bloc.

What mattered to Republican Senators was the swing and what happened to the House in 2018 and what will in turn happen to them in 2020 if they are still affiliated in any way with Trump. His backing has become toxic. And, again, that is NOW--before the real shit show begins. But that doesn't mean he can just change his on-camera persona 180 degrees.

Doubling down on humiliating the very people that are about to stab him in the back is likewise a time-honored tradition. Indeed, the fact that he's doubling down only serves to further prove--imo--that he knows damn well who will be shiving him in the end. He's getting his last licks in before the axe falls.

And if by some miracle he really is so mentally impaired as to not see any of the writing on the wall to take the last possible out before his head gets chopped off (and yes, I concede, it's a possibility), then more than likely it will be as I (and others) pointed out long ago; the insistence of his family (Ivanka, primarily) that he take a deal.

But, hey, if he doesn't, it just means more carnival for the rest of us. Frankly, I hope he takes the deal so that the adults can all get back to work and we can finally put this idiotic shitshow to bed. There are many lives at stake in all of this, not just a figurative danse macabre.
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I gotta admit - you win the Internet Cynic of the Day award for today. The only points off are for holding out hope that he might take "the deal".
I think he is at least dimly aware that there is no possible deal (other than death) that can insulate him from all the repercussions of all the misdeeds he has committed, and no way for federal, state and local prosecutors to all un-learn what they have already learned. He's fucking ruined, and his only real path forward is to seize control of every aspect of government while he still has a chance to do so. Then he can keep himself in office for the rest of his miserable life, and his kids can blame him for everything after he's dead. That, or flee to Russia in the middle of the night...
 
Elixir said:
He's fucking ruined, and his only real path forward is to seize control of every aspect of government while he still has a chance to do so.
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Well, he's certainly trying that route (which, again, I would argue lends credence to the fact that the off-camera man and the on-camera clown are well and truly separate), but it reminds me of the scene in the "prequel" of the Silence of the Lambs trilogy (Red Dragon):

Hannibal Lector: Then by implication, you think you are smarter than I am, since it was you who caught me.
Will Graham: No, I know I'm not smarter than you.
Hannibal Lector: Then, how did you catch me?
Will Graham: You had disadvantages.
Hannibal Lector: What disadvantages?
Will Graham: You're insane.​

While I don't think Trump is insane, I do think he's been trapped by his own hubris; his own ego and now must continue to play the part he came in with to the bitter end. But, again, that doesn't mean he'll necessarily let it take him over the cliff.

But, we'll certainly see and likely fairly soon. As I mentioned earlier, the window for any deal is rapidly closing. They are likely right now in fevered negotiations and we should know--one way or the other--likely this month. The dow can't take much more of this, so either Trump will take the deal and it will be revealed fairly quickly (i.e., within this month or possibly bleeding into February) so that the markets that are already bouncing all over the place can stabilize, or he's chosen suicide and we're in for a gigantic shitshow that will end up with his head if not literally on a platter, certainly figuratively.

I don't think anyone on any side really wants a shitshow, but they'll be more than glad to simply destroy every bit of him such that nobody--not even those in the untouchable 5%--can do anything other than turn blind eyes to it all.
 
Attorneys for Paul Manafort, former Trump campaign chairman, submitted a poorly redacted filing on Tuesday revealing that Manafort shared polling data with a Russian operative during the campaign. Special counsel Robert Mueller submitted a filing in November accusing Manafort of breaching his plea agreement with the special counsel's office by lying to federal investigators.

The special counsel said in a memo describing Manafort's alleged wrongdoing in December that Manafort's lies to federal investigators were not simply "memory lapses."

According to that memo, Manafort lied about several things in breach of his plea deal, including his contact with Konstantin Kilimnik, who ran Manafort's office in Kiev. Kilimnik, who has ties to Russian intelligence, was indicted in June. Much of the information about Kilimnik was redacted in the filing, although Manafort admitted he conspired with Kilimnik to obstruct justice.

In their response on Tuesday, Manafort's attorneys inadvertently revealed that the special counsel alleges Manafort "lied about sharing polling data with Mr. Kilimnik related to the 2016 presidential campaign."

Manafort's attorneys argue in the filing that he had answered the special counsel's questions truthfully to the best of his ability, but that his work on Ukrainian political events and of the alleged information sharing with Kilimnik "simply were not at the forefront of Mr. Manafort's mind during the period at issue." His attorneys added that "it is not surprising at all that Mr. Manafort was unable to recall specific details prior to having his recollection refreshed."
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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/manafo...mpaign-communications-with-russian-operative/

Hmmm....so his contact with Russians was a decade ago, huh? Look, if they were friends, then so what? People talk to each other. On the other hand, when your friend is in Russian intel and you are talking about the success of your campaign and there is a Trump Tower meeting...
 
The Supreme Court refused Tuesday to block a subpoena issued to an unnamed corporation, owned by a foreign government, ending a mystery dispute in the courts reportedly involving the investigation into Russian election meddling.

The outcome is believed to be a victory for special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, who is seeking to learn about the flow of foreign money that may have played a role in the 2016 campaign.

But most of the details of the dispute, including the name of the foreign country, remain unknown.

Like other federal investigations, Mueller presented evidence to a grand jury, and by law, the proceedings of the grand jury are kept secret to shield people who are innocent of wrongdoing.
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https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-court-mystery-mueller-20190108-story.html

So if there is an indictment, we will find out what this mystery corporation is?
 
Don2 (Don1 Revised) said:
The Supreme Court refused Tuesday to block a subpoena issued to an unnamed corporation, owned by a foreign government, ending a mystery dispute in the courts reportedly involving the investigation into Russian election meddling.

The outcome is believed to be a victory for special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, who is seeking to learn about the flow of foreign money that may have played a role in the 2016 campaign.

But most of the details of the dispute, including the name of the foreign country, remain unknown.

Like other federal investigations, Mueller presented evidence to a grand jury, and by law, the proceedings of the grand jury are kept secret to shield people who are innocent of wrongdoing.
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https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-court-mystery-mueller-20190108-story.html

So if there is an indictment, we will find out what this mystery corporation is?
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Eventually, but not automatically when it happens. It depends on the investigation, and how sensitive they deem it to both national security, and their investigation. That's my understanding of the 'maybes', but I'm not a lawyer.
 
Don2 (Don1 Revised) said:
Attorneys for Paul Manafort, former Trump campaign chairman, submitted a poorly redacted filing on Tuesday revealing that Manafort shared polling data with a Russian operative during the campaign. Special counsel Robert Mueller submitted a filing in November accusing Manafort of breaching his plea agreement with the special counsel's office by lying to federal investigators.

The special counsel said in a memo describing Manafort's alleged wrongdoing in December that Manafort's lies to federal investigators were not simply "memory lapses."

According to that memo, Manafort lied about several things in breach of his plea deal, including his contact with Konstantin Kilimnik, who ran Manafort's office in Kiev. Kilimnik, who has ties to Russian intelligence, was indicted in June. Much of the information about Kilimnik was redacted in the filing, although Manafort admitted he conspired with Kilimnik to obstruct justice.

In their response on Tuesday, Manafort's attorneys inadvertently revealed that the special counsel alleges Manafort "lied about sharing polling data with Mr. Kilimnik related to the 2016 presidential campaign."

Manafort's attorneys argue in the filing that he had answered the special counsel's questions truthfully to the best of his ability, but that his work on Ukrainian political events and of the alleged information sharing with Kilimnik "simply were not at the forefront of Mr. Manafort's mind during the period at issue." His attorneys added that "it is not surprising at all that Mr. Manafort was unable to recall specific details prior to having his recollection refreshed."
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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/manafo...mpaign-communications-with-russian-operative/

Hmmm....so his contact with Russians was a decade ago, huh?
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Don's link said:
"lied about sharing polling data with Mr. Kilimnik related to the 2016 presidential campaign."
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Was the 2016 campaign "a decade ago"?
Seems like it, I admit. Rest assured, though - that's an illusion caused by a 2½ year shit storm created and maintained by the orange buffoon. The 2016 campaign was less than 3 years ago.
Can you believe it?
 
Bringing this over from another thread because I want to comment on it.

Koyaanisqatsi said:
ETA: That isn't to just dismiss the remote possibility that Trump will come out of this unscathed, at least directly. His "mentor" was Roy Cohen, ffs and the people--the sycophants--that suckerfished him are adept at making sure nothing leads directly up the chain, so it is obviously never outside the realm of possibilities that Mueller ends up inadvertently exonerating Trump. Doubtful in all that we've seen so far, but there is, of course, a significant difference between what we believe to be true and what can be proven in a court of law. So there is that.
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This seems to indicate that you're beginning to lay the groundwork for backing out of many of those super obvious things you have been claiming Trump and company are definitely guilty of. You use the word "inadvertently" in regards to Mueller's findings and yet the argument here has been that Mueller is taking so long to wrap up because he is maticulously dotting those i's and crossing those t's. Not the case any longer?
 
poster said:
Bringing this over from another thread because I want to comment on it.

Koyaanisqatsi said:
ETA: That isn't to just dismiss the remote possibility that Trump will come out of this unscathed, at least directly. His "mentor" was Roy Cohen, ffs and the people--the sycophants--that suckerfished him are adept at making sure nothing leads directly up the chain, so it is obviously never outside the realm of possibilities that Mueller ends up inadvertently exonerating Trump. Doubtful in all that we've seen so far, but there is, of course, a significant difference between what we believe to be true and what can be proven in a court of law. So there is that.
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This seems to indicate that you're beginning to lay the groundwork for backing out of many of those super obvious things you have been claiming Trump and company are definitely guilty of. You use the word "inadvertently" in regards to Mueller's findings and yet the argument here has been that Mueller is taking so long to wrap up because he is maticulously dotting those i's and crossing those t's. Not the case any longer?
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This is the paradox of the whole situation. I think the big question on everyone’s mind is, “How stupid are these people?”
By that I mean, That there is WAY too much smoke for there not to be fire, but how does a group of grown men attempt too pull off such a brazen conspiracy without having a fail safe plan? The risk reward just isn’t good enough without a 100% foolproof plan.

I have no doubts they are guilty, I would bet my life of it. But how stupid are they? It’s hard to believe they would just throw their lives away like that.
 
JohnG said:
poster said:
Bringing this over from another thread because I want to comment on it.

Koyaanisqatsi said:
ETA: That isn't to just dismiss the remote possibility that Trump will come out of this unscathed, at least directly. His "mentor" was Roy Cohen, ffs and the people--the sycophants--that suckerfished him are adept at making sure nothing leads directly up the chain, so it is obviously never outside the realm of possibilities that Mueller ends up inadvertently exonerating Trump. Doubtful in all that we've seen so far, but there is, of course, a significant difference between what we believe to be true and what can be proven in a court of law. So there is that.
Click to expand...

This seems to indicate that you're beginning to lay the groundwork for backing out of many of those super obvious things you have been claiming Trump and company are definitely guilty of. You use the word "inadvertently" in regards to Mueller's findings and yet the argument here has been that Mueller is taking so long to wrap up because he is maticulously dotting those i's and crossing those t's. Not the case any longer?
Click to expand...

This is the paradox of the whole situation. I think the big question on everyone’s mind is, “How stupid are these people?”
By that I mean, That there is WAY too much smoke for there not to be fire, but how does a group of grown men attempt too pull off such a brazen conspiracy without having a fail safe plan? The risk reward just isn’t good enough without a 100% foolproof plan.

I have no doubts they are guilty, I would bet my life of it. But how stupid are they? It’s hard to believe they would just throw their lives away like that.
Click to expand...
Well, thanks to Manafort's lawyers, and their poor redaction, the smoke has given way to fire as the indictment indicates Mueller can demonstrate that Manafort shared internal polling data with Kilimnik. And Manafort isn't denying meeting with Kilimnik.

To be clear, I doubt Mueller would be involved in this still, if there wasn't some substantial case to be brought forth. The Trump Campaign team is neck deep in Russian contacts and Mueller apparently can show that Manafort was coordinating their campaign with the Russians.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
JohnG said:
This is the paradox of the whole situation. I think the big question on everyone’s mind is, “How stupid are these people?”
By that I mean, That there is WAY too much smoke for there not to be fire, but how does a group of grown men attempt too pull off such a brazen conspiracy without having a fail safe plan? The risk reward just isn’t good enough without a 100% foolproof plan.

I have no doubts they are guilty, I would bet my life of it. But how stupid are they? It’s hard to believe they would just throw their lives away like that.
Click to expand...
Well, thanks to Manafort's lawyers, and their poor redaction, the smoke has given way to fire as the indictment indicates Mueller can demonstrate that Manafort shared internal polling data with Kilimnik. And Manafort isn't denying meeting with Kilimnik.

To be clear, I doubt Mueller would be involved in this still, if there wasn't some substantial case to be brought forth. The Trump Campaign team is neck deep in Russian contacts and Mueller apparently can show that Manafort was coordinating their campaign with the Russians.
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Yes - even without the latest Manafort news, it's painfully clear the campaign team had mirrored and consulted with Russian politics. Of that there can be little doubt, as I said there are too many people involved from Cambridge Analytica, Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, Trump himself, IRA, Wikileaks, and on and on...

but the fact that these people thought they could get away with it is what is most surprising. They are accomplished money launderers so that may have given them confidence, and it has been said that a lot of that goes on outside of close investigation, because there is just so much of it. But they MUST have considered that bringing their "business" to the govt level would draw attention to their corruption. I mean...really?

Many have speculated that these people have just become overly brave, and feel outside of regular society, hence their shock and dismay when they are questioned about this stuff - as Nixon & Agnew were as well.

Hubris is the word, but it's Hubris on steroids.
 
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