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Polls of the Presidential Race

No, I am saying that there's no such thing as an asymptomatic carrier of fleas, so I know you're a simpleton and a hypocrite. The reasoning behind this is set out above.

For more information, please re-read this post.

You're the one who doesn't care of grandma dies of bubonic plague, and you are the one calling me a hypocrite. You preach "it's not about you" but the moment it isn't about you then you reject the responsibility you say everyone else has, and you are the one calling me a hypocrite.

Bilby is living in a country that has this epidemic under control. Most countries do in fact, with the measures installed.

You are living in one that doesn't. The attitude you have is prevalent amongst the Government of your country.

I guess common sense isn't all that common, but play your rumpelstiltskin-like bullshit with your, "that's not what I was thinking" as much as you like. Reality would like a word with you.
 
You know what other country seems to have it under control? Sweden. Maybe we should emulate Sweden. They also seem to have it under control, and up until this year progressives have loved to praise Sweden.

My attitude is certainly not prevalent in the government of my country, or we wouldn't be dropping bombs all around the world and enacting shutdowns.

Still, those who actually believe the arguments I was mocking (and yes it was mockery) really have no actual argument against humans wearing flea collars other than trying to call me hypocritical for repeating their own arguments back at them.

If Corona was as deadly as the hype, we wouldn't need mandates to shut down businesses and keep people at home. People are seeing through the hype, and that is the real problem.

Should we have these mandates on every communicable disease that is at least as bad as Covid?
 
You know what other country seems to have it under control? Sweden. Maybe we should emulate Sweden. They also seem to have it under control, and up until this year progressives have loved to praise Sweden.

My attitude is certainly not prevalent in the government of my country, or we wouldn't be dropping bombs all around the world and enacting shutdowns.

Still, those who actually believe the arguments I was mocking (and yes it was mockery) really have no actual argument against humans wearing flea collars other than trying to call me hypocritical for repeating their own arguments back at them.

If Corona was as deadly as the hype, we wouldn't need mandates to shut down businesses and keep people at home. People are seeing through the hype, and that is the real problem.

Should we have these mandates on every communicable disease that is at least as bad as Covid?

This is a great example of conservolibertarians failing to understand nuance.

We have succeeded in stopping millions of unnecessary deaths. Ought any 1 unnecessary death be reason for all of humanity to go into lockdown? No, certainly not, but here you have the strawman being thrown about anyway.

So, where's the nuance? It has to do with resources such as hospital beds. If we let the pandemic hit us with no mask wearing, no social distancing, no government strategy then we would have insane overflow into our resources. The related human resources would also then be hit with the pandemic to an extreme, breaking healthcare in the country.

Our business as usual economy and healthcare handle small epidemics and a single instance of 1 person getting the bubonic plague. People die unnecessarily but these are accidents or issues with accessibility or systemic problems of poverty that can and ought to be worked on separately. They are not the result of healthcare itself breaking due to lack of resources across the board.

In regards to Sweden, Sweden did worse than Norway and Denmark. However, all these Scandinavian countries do not have the level of issues we have with systemic differences and especially with crazy population density of NYC and other major urban areas.

For example, Sweden's capital Stockholm has a population density of about 365 persons per square kilometer. NYC has a population density of 4K to 22K depending on the section of the greater metropolitan area. This is 1 to 2 orders of magnitude more than Stockholm.

The pandemic and viral spread are expected to grow exponentially and so the population density has a direct bearing on spread. AND on resources that might have to be expended.

Metropolitan hospitals often have good resources and good expertise besides. So, persons in rural areas or suburbs often go there when sick of something strange like, say, corona-19. This means that if a rural area or suburbs gets a spread, then the persons may bring it to the city as well wreaking havoc. Therefore, having a national strategy, watching the numbers and responding makes WAY MORE SENSE than waiting months for an alleged free market response or leaving it up to individuals' Qanon religion.
 
You know what other country seems to have it under control? Sweden. Maybe we should emulate Sweden. They also seem to have it under control, and up until this year progressives have loved to praise Sweden.

The operative word here is "seems". Sweden did significantly worse in terms of death per capita than their neighboring countries, with only a mild improvement in the economic decline. If one is happy with lots more sickness and death then yes, we could emulate Sweden.

The conservative/libertarian opinion seems to be that as long as it is other people dying then it's ok with them.
 
Evangelical, Catholic voters in 5 swing states may shift 11% for Biden over Trump: survey

New data commissioned by a left-leaning Christian activist group and compiled by several university researchers suggests that there could be an 11-point swing among evangelical and Catholic voters in swing states away from President Donald Trump and toward Democrat Joe Biden.

Vote Common Good, a voter mobilization nonprofit that has been holding events in swing states this fall in an effort to persuade evangelicals not to vote for Trump, released the results of the new survey called the “Presidential Candidate Vice and Virtue Poll: Swing State Evangelical and Catholic Perceptions of Donald J. Trump and Joseph R. Biden.”

The poll claims to be the largest survey of swing state faith voters in the 2020 cycle.

The data is made up of responses from 1,430 respondents who are registered to vote and reside in one of five swing states: Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. They were interviewed between Aug. 11 and Aug. 26.
 
Evangelical, Catholic voters in 5 swing states may shift 11% for Biden over Trump: survey

New data commissioned by a left-leaning Christian activist group and compiled by several university researchers suggests that there could be an 11-point swing among evangelical and Catholic voters in swing states away from President Donald Trump and toward Democrat Joe Biden.

Vote Common Good, a voter mobilization nonprofit that has been holding events in swing states this fall in an effort to persuade evangelicals not to vote for Trump, released the results of the new survey called the “Presidential Candidate Vice and Virtue Poll: Swing State Evangelical and Catholic Perceptions of Donald J. Trump and Joseph R. Biden.”

The poll claims to be the largest survey of swing state faith voters in the 2020 cycle.

The data is made up of responses from 1,430 respondents who are registered to vote and reside in one of five swing states: Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. They were interviewed between Aug. 11 and Aug. 26.

If that were true, that would be a death blow to the Trump campaign, which has relied on overwhelming Evangelical support. I'm a little wary of lumping together Catholic and Evangelicals, though. And correct me if I am wrong, but the polling data cited doesn't seem to actually address voting, rather, which candidate "seems kinder".
 
Evangelical, Catholic voters in 5 swing states may shift 11% for Biden over Trump: survey

New data commissioned by a left-leaning Christian activist group and compiled by several university researchers suggests that there could be an 11-point swing among evangelical and Catholic voters in swing states away from President Donald Trump and toward Democrat Joe Biden.

Vote Common Good, a voter mobilization nonprofit that has been holding events in swing states this fall in an effort to persuade evangelicals not to vote for Trump, released the results of the new survey called the “Presidential Candidate Vice and Virtue Poll: Swing State Evangelical and Catholic Perceptions of Donald J. Trump and Joseph R. Biden.”

The poll claims to be the largest survey of swing state faith voters in the 2020 cycle.

The data is made up of responses from 1,430 respondents who are registered to vote and reside in one of five swing states: Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. They were interviewed between Aug. 11 and Aug. 26.

If that were true, that would be a death blow to the Trump campaign, which has relied on overwhelming Evangelical support. I'm a little wary of lumping together Catholic and Evangelicals, though. And correct me if I am wrong, but the polling data cited doesn't seem to actually address voting, rather, which candidate "seems kinder".
Yeah, that isn't congruent. Catholics have been much more likely to vote Democrat than Evangelicals. And over the last four years, we've learned evangelical is just a polite way of saying racist. After all of that crap we had to listen to about Bill Clinton, and those idiots vote for Donald Trump?!
 
You know what other country seems to have it under control? Sweden. Maybe we should emulate Sweden. They also seem to have it under control, and up until this year progressives have loved to praise Sweden.

You know what Sweden has that the US doesn't? an actual health CARE system... not a disease care system like the US. If the US had the health services infrastructure they have and their culture of good general health that the US REALLY does not have, then yes it would be good to look at what how they dealt with this. But it's like comparing what a doctor might tell a strapping young adult (Sweden) to do for exercise versus what they would tell an obese sickly elderly person (the US) to do for exercise.
Sweden has the general health that can take this pandemic in the face, whereas the US is pretty sickly and fat.. and should maybe hide from it.
 
You know what other country seems to have it under control? Sweden. Maybe we should emulate Sweden. They also seem to have it under control, and up until this year progressives have loved to praise Sweden.

You know what Sweden has that the US doesn't? an actual health CARE system... not a disease care system like the US. If the US had the health services infrastructure they have and their culture of good general health that the US REALLY does not have, then yes it would be good to look at what how they dealt with this. But it's like comparing what a doctor might tell a strapping young adult (Sweden) to do for exercise versus what they would tell an obese sickly elderly person (the US) to do for exercise.
Sweden has the general health that can take this pandemic in the face, whereas the US is pretty sickly and fat.. and should maybe hide from it.

They also have a smaller population, and a population who follow the rules, and guidance.
 
You know what other country seems to have it under control? Sweden. Maybe we should emulate Sweden. They also seem to have it under control, and up until this year progressives have loved to praise Sweden.

You know what Sweden has that the US doesn't? an actual health CARE system... not a disease care system like the US. If the US had the health services infrastructure they have and their culture of good general health that the US REALLY does not have, then yes it would be good to look at what how they dealt with this. But it's like comparing what a doctor might tell a strapping young adult (Sweden) to do for exercise versus what they would tell an obese sickly elderly person (the US) to do for exercise.
Sweden has the general health that can take this pandemic in the face, whereas the US is pretty sickly and fat.. and should maybe hide from it.
The people also didn't throw a hissy fit because they were told going to bars was a bad idea.
 
Today the punters at Betfair show the Dems' win as 54%, GOP at 46%. Almost a coin-toss.

This is going to be another razor-thin election.
 
Today the punters at Betfair show the Dems' win as 54%, GOP at 46%. Almost a coin-toss.

This is going to be another razor-thin election.

Due to built in advantages (EC, third parties, motivation, and etc) this means that really the republicans are ahead. Their turnout is always better. I also think that many people vote for republicans when their stability is in danger or they have fear. And stability is growing. The dems are too weak to blame it on Trump. We're in trouble. I just hope that we take the senate.
 
Biden leads Trump in Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin: polls | Fox News
  • FL: B - T: 50% - 45% (likely, high turnout), 49% - 45% (likely, low turnout), sampling error: 4.7% / B - T avg. = 1.6%, last mo = 5%
  • NC: B - T: 49% - 46%, less than sampling error / B - T avg = 0.6%, last mo = - 0.6% (T ahead)
  • WI: B - T: 52% - 42% / B - T avg = 6.8%, close to last mo

Biden Is Outspending Trump On TV, And Just 6 States Are The Focus Of The Campaign : NPR

The two sides are spending heavily on 6 states: AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI. These states include three "Blue Wall" states that HC lost in 2016: MI, PA, WI. Biden's campaign is not ignoring them this time around.
  • Biden and his supporters are spending somewhat more than Trump and his supporters: $245 M to $234 M.
  • Trump is playing defense in OH, IA
  • Trump is reaching out in MN, NH, NV
  • Trump's campaign has written off CO
  • Trump's campaign is doing all the campaigning in GA, though Biden will be getting involved in Oct and Nov
  • Biden's campaign is spending a little in TX, a place that the Trump campaign is ignoring
The numbers:
  • AZ: B $43.7 M, T $26.3 M
  • CO: B $1.5 M, T $0.038 M
  • FL: B $83.5 M, T $82.3 M
  • GA: B $3.9 M, T $12.8 M
  • IA: B $2.3 M, T $9.7 M
  • MI: B $55.6 M, T $21.7 M
  • MN: B $8.9 M, T $16.9 M
  • NC: B $37.1 M, T $49 M
  • NH: B $3.4 M, T $6.1 M
  • NV: B $7.2 M, T $7.8 M
  • OH: B $6.8 M, T $22.3 M
  • PA: B $74.1 M, T $50 M
  • TX: B $6.7 M, T $0.156 M
  • WI: B $44.4 M, T $31.8 M
 
2020 election: Why the stability of the race promises more volatility ahead - CNNPolitics

"In a presidency of unprecedented disruption and turmoil, Donald Trump's support has remained remarkably stable. That stability, paradoxically, points toward years of rising turbulence in American politics and life."

Trump's approval and disapproval ratings have varied remarkably little, despite good news and bad news.
The durability of both support and opposition to Trump shows how the motivation for voters' choices is shifting from transitory measures of performance, such as the traditional metrics of peace and prosperity, toward bedrock attitudes about demographic, cultural and economic change. The immovability of the battle lines in 2020 captures how thoroughly the two parties are now unified -- and separated -- by their contrasting attitudes toward these fundamental changes, with Trump mobilizing overwhelming support from the voters who are hostile to them, no matter what else happens, and the contrasting coalition of Americans who welcome this evolution flocking toward the Democrats.
What gets him support from his base is what turns off everybody else.

Biden is leading in AZ, FL, MI, PA, WI, and tied in NC. Hillary Clinton lost all 6 states to Trump in 2016.

Biden is within range of getting 4 states that Trump carried back then: IA, GA, OH, TX

"To take one measure, the Real Clear Politics average of national polls last October showed Biden at 50.1% and Trump at 43.4%; the result last weekend was 50.5% to 43% -- virtually unchanged." -- despite the COVID-19 pandemic and its cost of nearly 200 K American lives.
"Things are very locked in because the reason you're voting for Trump is not because of the economy or the response to coronavirus that he's delivering but rather the image of protecting White people in America," says Manuel Pastor, a sociologist and director of the Equity Research Institute at the University of Southern California. "He was doing dog whistles at the beginning, then he was doing bullhorns, now it's like fireworks. And for some people it's enthralling."
Part of it is "The Big Sort", Democrats and Republicans preferring to live among other people who are on their side. Conservatives live in an especially small bubble, with a majority of Republicans listing Fox News as a news source that they all trust.

True swing voters are on the decline, those who might vote for either party.
 
Partisan allegiances grounded in these fundamental measures of personal and national identity -- such as whether the nation must do more to assure equal opportunity for people of color and women -- appear highly resistant to reconsideration based on immediate events.

In important research, Schaffner and his colleagues found that the denial that racism or sexism exists in America was the best predictor in the 2016 election of support for Trump, far more than any measures of economic distress. On the other side, Schaffner found that the belief that racism and sexism are serious problems predicted support for Clinton more powerfully than economic attitudes, as well.

"Now the parties are very clearly sorted on issues of identity politics," Schaffner says. "If you have fairly racist or sexist views you are ... very likely to be a Republican. And if you have the opposite views you are very likely to be in the Democratic Party."

...
With Trump basing so much of his campaign on charging that a Biden victory would unleash mobs of protesters in suburbia -- and in the process appealing so openly to White racial resentments -- Schaffner says it's highly likely that attitudes about race relations and gender roles will predict support in the presidential contest even more powerfully in 2020 than in 2016. Already, striking recent polling from the nonpartisan Pew Research Foundation has found that the gap in attitudes about demographic and social change is even wider between voters backing Trump and Biden than it was between supporters of Trump and Clinton in 2016.

Voters’ Attitudes About Race and Gender Are Even More Divided Than in 2016 | Pew Research Center
  • White people have big advantages over Black people: T 4% - 5%, A 23% - 34%, B 40% - 59%
  • Much more difficult to be Black than White: T 11% - 9%, A 35% - 44%, B 57% - 74%
  • Newcomers strengthen society: T 19% - 32%, A 46% - 60%, B 71% - 84%
  • Islam is not especially violent: T 16% - 23%, A 42% - 51%, B 63% - 74%
  • Much more difficult for women to get ahead than men: T 31% - 26%, A 52% - 55%, B 72% - 79%
  • OK to have priorities other than marriage and children: T 41% - 43%, A 55% - 61%, B 69% - 77%
T = Trump voters, A = all voters, B = Clinton / Biden voters
For 2016 / 2020
 
Particularly White Christian folks really did think they were the country. So if you take that really seriously, [as] something they believed to the core of their being, then what's becoming abundantly clear is that that is not true. But that is a foundational piece of their self-understanding. To fight tooth and nail for something that is going to actually undermine your basic identity is not too surprising. It runs just that deep.

Robert P. Jones, founder and CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute
Summer Unrest over Racial Injustice Moves the Country, But Not Republicans or White Evangelicals
In another recent national survey, the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute likewise found that while Democrats are much more likely than in 2015 to see police shootings of unarmed Black men as part of a pattern, about four-fifths of Republicans still describe such shootings as isolated events, substantially widening the gap between the parties. In that polling, Republicans were slightly more likely than in 2015 to describe Confederate monuments as a symbol of Southern pride rather than racism, while Democrats have moved sharply in the opposite direction.

All of these results underscore how Trump has intensified the long-term process of reconfiguring the parties more along lines of cultural and racial attitudes than economic class. That's provided him with a seemingly unshakable grip on the groups most alienated from the demographic and cultural changes remaking America: Whites who don't hold college degrees, who live in rural areas or who identify as Christians, particularly evangelical Christians.

But it's simultaneously sentenced Trump and his party to huge deficits among young people and people of color, as well as White voters holding at least four-year college degrees. With many of those well-educated Whites recoiling from Trump's definition of the GOP, polls show him on track for the largest deficit in the history of polling for a Republican nominee among them.
These categories are not absolute. There are some in-betweens who may switch sides depending on the issues.
 
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