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Polls of the Presidential Race

lpetrich said:
These categories are not absolute. There are some in-betweens who may switch sides depending on the issues.
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What "issues"? Yet to be revealed September/October Surprises?
I don't think so. The cake is baked. There's only one basic issue, and everything else is subservient to it:
Believe Trump propaganda - YES / NO
 
More of "Why the stability of the 2020 race promises more volatility ahead" by Ronald Brownstein on CNN.

The US has become divided between a "coalition of transformation" that associates itself with the Democratic Party and a "coalition of restoration" that associates itself with the Republican Party. The CoT is currently larger than the CoR, but the CoR has its thumb on the scale with the help of the US Senate and the Electoral College.

But even so, Robert P. Jones, founder and CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute, says the White constituencies most hostile to demographic and cultural change will likely become more embittered through the 2020s as evidence mounts that they no longer constitute the nation's majority. Just since 2008, he notes, White Christians have fallen from about 54% to 44% of the population; that decline, he believes, will become vastly more tangible for them if Trump loses in November.

"This White Christian base has been shrinking and becoming more shrill at the same time: I think those two things are related," says Jones, author of the recent book "White Too Long," a history of Christian churches and racial bias.

Trump's relentless rhetorical salvos against immigrants, "mobs" and African American leaders from politics to sports and his insistence that religious traditions (like Christmas) are under siege all inflame a deep-rooted anxiety among conservative White Christian voters, Jones notes.

...
Pastor isn't alone when he grimly predicts, "We're really getting ready for a very deep culture war coming."
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Biden dropping like a rock in polls.

A week ago he was up 7.5%. Now he’s only up 5.8%.

Given that I think the polls are likely undercounting Trump’s support, he may actually be losing at this point.

SLD
 
SLD said:
Biden dropping like a rock in polls.

A week ago he was up 7.5%. Now he’s only up 5.8%.

Given that I think the polls are likely undercounting Trump’s support, he may actually be losing at this point.

SLD
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Any reason for this statement? Surely it's not the midterm elections that have driven you in this direction.
 
SLD said:
Biden dropping like a rock in polls.

A week ago he was up 7.5%. Now he’s only up 5.8%.

Given that I think the polls are likely undercounting Trump’s support, he may actually be losing at this point.

SLD
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Dropping like a rock would be going down 5.8 points,. 2 pts is within that margin of Trump approval rating meandering.
 
SLD said:
Biden dropping like a rock in polls.

A week ago he was up 7.5%. Now he’s only up 5.8%.

Given that I think the polls are likely undercounting Trump’s support, he may actually be losing at this point.

SLD
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Dunno... last time there were a lot of people too embarrassed to admit that they were voting for Trump. There may still be a lot of them, but I believe there are at least a few closet "haters" who will either sit out or vote to get rid of him this time, offsetting the "closet trumpster" effect to some degree.
At the end of the day, turnout will rule. The effectiveness of voter suppression efforts will be even more critical than the power of propaganda, much of which is already tired and old. Any October surprises (from either side) will be met with a novel level of cynicism. The wild card IMHO is actual meddling with ballots, voting machines and the final count. Without some checks on that level, this is probably a Trump "victory" - regardless of turnout or actual voter preferences -and the death of a representative Federal government.
 
Elixir said:
SLD said:
Biden dropping like a rock in polls.

A week ago he was up 7.5%. Now he’s only up 5.8%.

Given that I think the polls are likely undercounting Trump’s support, he may actually be losing at this point.

SLD
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Dunno... last time there were a lot of people too embarrassed to admit that they were voting for Trump. There may still be a lot of them, but I believe there are at least a few closet "haters" who will either sit out or vote to get rid of him this time, offsetting the "closet trumpster" effect to some degree.
At the end of the day, turnout will rule. The effectiveness of voter suppression efforts will be even more critical than the power of propaganda, much of which is already tired and old. Any October surprises (from either side) will be met with a novel level of cynicism. The wild card IMHO is actual meddling with ballots, voting machines and the final count. Without some checks on that level, this is probably a Trump "victory" - regardless of turnout or actual voter preferences -and the death of a representative Federal government.
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There are lots of good sites talking about under counting of Trump supporters. Here’s one of many:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...epublican-says-polls-undercount-trump-support

Not sure whether it’s due to embarrassment or other factors but I am willing to wager that the election will be higher for Trump than the final polls will show.

I do share your concerns about ballot tampering issues.
 
538 has Biden up +6.8%. what has seemingly been helping Trump is riots he can play off of. But the power grab of McConnell may help with the already large gender gap. And a resurgence of Covid because of stupid (thank you Sturgic bikers) may help drag Trump down further.

In those states Trump won in 2016 by very slim margins, Biden is ahead handily, except Florida, Biden is ahead by +2% Trump had thought there might be a chance to take Minnesota and Nevada. Texas, Ohio and Iowa are now toss up states.

Wisconsin Biden by +6.6%
Michigan Biden by +7.6%
Pennsylvania Biden by +4.6%
Arizona Biden by +4.5%
Nevada Biden by +5.5%
Minnesota Biden by +9.1%
 
The lines in Democratic strongholds, i.e. cities will be even more insane than the past. Most people aren't mailing ballots either. So, the pandemic effects success of Dem votes more than Reps.
 
SLD said:
Not sure whether it’s due to embarrassment or other factors but I am willing to wager that the election will be higher for Trump than the final polls will show.
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I'm sure that, for instance, most of our local "I'm not a Trumpsucker" types will be voting Orange, for the TrumPutin ticket. I'm just not sure whether the unorganized Wives of Bubbas who have to mouth their fealty in front of Bubba, will hold the line when they go to vote.

I do share your concerns about ballot tampering issues.
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Yeah, it's a given - if they can cheat in any way - ANY WAY - they will.
Republicans and their supporters don't care about representative government. That's the main difference between them and Democrats.
 
I have seen some recent reports that women are not speaking out publicly about their support for Biden. On line that will get them rape and death threats. At home, arguments from stupid husbands. Woman are even divorcing men now over politics, and Trumpism. Women have to put up with bullying at work if they speak up. So women are laying low and biding their time. Pew research has a recent survey that 59% of women report they either do not plan to vote for Trump, or are unlikely to vote for Trump. So a lot of women are not telling any one how they plan to vote, except for a few surveys and some incidental reports on social media where woman admit what they do at home and work. lay low, and seethe and plan to turn out to vote for Biden.

So we may see a hidden angry woman vote that might be a shocker come election day. Moscow Mitch's power grab is not going to help him or Trump. Only 43 days til election day and Biden leads by 6.8% according to 538. And leads in the states Trump won in 2016 that barely gave him the electoral college winds he needed. By 77K votes total. In 2018, Millennials and younger cohorts voted in larger total numbers than Boomers and Older generation voters. For the first time. If young women, who are not as a group, fans of the GOP turn out, because of Moscow Mitch's power grab, we may see some great victories over Trump and the GOP.
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/advisory-u-presidential-election-approaches-102128687.html

...
NEW YORK (Reuters) - While President Donald Trump trails Democrat Joe Biden in national public opinion polls, he does not need popular support to get re-elected, just a majority of votes in enough large, competitive states to win the Electoral College.

With that in mind, Reuters on Monday begins taking a closer look at America's swing states with polls nearly every week from now until Election Day on Nov. 3 in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Here is why Reuters decided to focus on those states, and what it will be looking for in the data.

WHAT IS SO INTERESTING ABOUT THESE STATES?

All six states have been competitive in recent elections, with nearly the same number of voters backing Democrats as Republicans. All six are large enough to tip a close election to either candidate.

In 2016, Trump won three of those states -- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan -- by less than 1 percentage point, and a fourth, Florida, by less than 2 points. Those states shifted the race decisively in the Republican's favor, netting Trump 75 of his 306 total electoral votes that year.
...


Doesn't list a site for this. I suspect we might find this at Reuters.com. Or perhaps via 538. 41 days to go!
 
RealClearPolitics - Live Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls - collects lots of polls.
  • FL: Biden 1.6% - Trump catching up over the last month
  • PA: Biden 4.0% - Trump catching up a little bit
  • MI: Biden 6.4% - Trump recently peaked
  • WI: Biden 6.7% - steady
  • NC: Biden 0.8% - recently a tossup, alternates between that state and Biden ahead
  • AZ: Biden 5.0% - steady for the last 6 months
 
538

Ohio. Biden is up +1%. Fox polling has Trump up 5% in Ohio, Ohio is flipping for Biden. Two latest polls from Nebraska have Biden up +6% and +7%. The usual swing states that Trumpo won in 2016 but have swung to Biden are still holding strong for Biden. Nevada which Trump has hoped to flip is now up +6.8% for Biden.

If Biden flips Ohio it is over. Ohio has 18 EC votes. Iowa is Trumps, but only by +0.8%. Florida is Biden's, but only +1.6%.
 
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New Polling Shows Biden Up In Several Key States | Morning Joe | MSNBC - YouTube
  • ME: Biden 50%, Trump 39%, +- 3.4%
  • WI: Biden 54%, Trump 44%, +- 4.6%
  • MI: Biden 52%, Trump 44%, +- 4.3%
  • MN: Biden 47%, Trump 40%, +- 4.4%
  • MN: Biden 48%, Trump 42%, +- 3.5%
  • NC: Biden 48%, Trump 46%, +- 3.6%
  • GA: Trump 47%, Biden 46%, +- 3.4%
  • SC: Trump 52%, Biden 42%, +- 3.8%

2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight
To win: Biden 78% Trump 21%

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest 2020 Presidential General Election Polls
  • WI: Biden +5.5%
  • PA: Biden +5.7%
  • FL: Biden +1.1%
  • NE-02: Biden +7%
  • NV: Biden +5.3%
  • NC: Biden +0.8%
  • GA: Trump +1.3%
  • SC: Trump +6.8%
  • MI: Biden +5.2%
  • MN: Biden +9.4%
  • ME: Biden +15.3%
  • ME-02: Biden +4.0%
  • ME-01: Biden +23.6%
  • CA: Biden +31.5%
  • MD: Biden +28%
  • TX: Trump +3.6%
  • OH: Biden +3.3%
  • VA: Biden +11.0%
  • IA: Tie
  • AZ: Biden +3.4%
So Biden is likely to win in PA, MI, and WI, states that Trump won in 2016.
 
The Memo: 'Trump fatigue' spells trouble for president | TheHill
Tuesday night’s presidential debate drew bad reviews from across the political and media spectrum. Trump’s conduct — interrupting frequently, arguing with the moderator and making highly personalized attacks on his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden — was widely criticized as boorish.

Even Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) implicitly rebuked Trump for his failure to repudiate the far-right Proud Boys group.

McConnell cited comments by the Senate’s only Black Republican, Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.), who had urged Trump to “correct” remarks calling for the Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by.”

McConnell told reporters that Scott had “said it was unacceptable not to condemn white supremacists and so I do so in the strongest possible way.

...
The danger for Trump may be that his abrasive personality — seen, particularly by heartland conservative voters, as a bracing blast of anti-establishment air in 2016 — has worn thin.

His poll ratings have remained both unimpressive and steady, suggesting that the all-important sliver of persuadable voters who are likely to decide November’s election may have tuned him out.
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lpetrich said:
New Polling Shows Biden Up In Several Key States | Morning Joe | MSNBC - YouTube
  • ME: Biden 50%, Trump 39%, +- 3.4%
  • WI: Biden 54%, Trump 44%, +- 4.6%
  • MI: Biden 52%, Trump 44%, +- 4.3%
  • MN: Biden 47%, Trump 40%, +- 4.4%
  • MN: Biden 48%, Trump 42%, +- 3.5%
  • NC: Biden 48%, Trump 46%, +- 3.6%
  • GA: Trump 47%, Biden 46%, +- 3.4%
  • SC: Trump 52%, Biden 42%, +- 3.8%

2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight
To win: Biden 78% Trump 21%

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest 2020 Presidential General Election Polls
  • WI: Biden +5.5%
  • PA: Biden +5.7%
  • FL: Biden +1.1%
  • NE-02: Biden +7%
  • NV: Biden +5.3%
  • NC: Biden +0.8%
  • GA: Trump +1.3%
  • SC: Trump +6.8%
  • MI: Biden +5.2%
  • MN: Biden +9.4%
  • ME: Biden +15.3%
  • ME-02: Biden +4.0%
  • ME-01: Biden +23.6%
  • CA: Biden +31.5%
  • MD: Biden +28%
  • TX: Trump +3.6%
  • OH: Biden +3.3%
  • VA: Biden +11.0%
  • IA: Tie
  • AZ: Biden +3.4%
So Biden is likely to win in PA, MI, and WI, states that Trump won in 2016.
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Give Trump a five point bump in every race and Biden wins... it'd be tight, but Biden at least wins the EC that isn't screwed with... and the popular vote.
 
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