Polls of the Presidential Race

[Elixir]

If Biden flips Ohio it is over. Ohio has 18 EC votes.

If we weren't living in the Bizzarro-world of Trumpistan that would be the case. But they will still be able to contest every single ballot, force a tedious process that will not be completed by 12/8, thereby forcing it to the Trump kangaroo court.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If Biden flips Ohio it is over. Ohio has 18 EC votes.

If we weren't living in the Bizzarro-world of Trumpistan that would be the case. But they will still be able to contest every single ballot, force a tedious process that will not be completed by 12/8, thereby forcing it to the Trump kangaroo court.

I think it was 12/18, the magic date that 5 justices of SCOTUS decided was the impassable obstruction to getting an accurate vote count.

 

[Elixir]

If Biden flips Ohio it is over. Ohio has 18 EC votes.

If we weren't living in the Bizzarro-world of Trumpistan that would be the case. But they will still be able to contest every single ballot, force a tedious process that will not be completed by 12/8, thereby forcing it to the Trump kangaroo court.

I think it was 12/18, the magic date that 5 justices of SCOTUS decided was the impassable obstruction to getting an accurate vote count.

Confusinger and confusinger...

December 12 according to this.

But there’s an easy way to ease this tight timetable and make sure states have enough time to count and certify their elections: Congress can change the December 12 federal deadline, and state legislatures can authorize ballot-counting measures to begin prior to November 3.

Of course that's meaningless if "Congress" includes Moscow Mitch.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think it was 12/18, the magic date that 5 justices of SCOTUS decided was the impassable obstruction to getting an accurate vote count.

Confusinger and confusinger...

December 12 according to this.

But there’s an easy way to ease this tight timetable and make sure states have enough time to count and certify their elections: Congress can change the December 12 federal deadline, and state legislatures can authorize ballot-counting measures to begin prior to November 3.

Of course that's meaningless if "Congress" includes Moscow Mitch.

Fake news... my first answer is always the right one!

 

[lpetrich]

New polls feed GOP fears of Biden rout over Trump | TheHill

• South Carolina: Trump +14% in 2016, +1% now
• Alaska: Trump +15% in 2016, tied now ... R Sen. Dan Sullivan having a strong challenge from D Al Gross
• Iowa: Trump +9% in 2916, Biden a bit ahead now ... R Sen. Joni Ernst having a strong challenge from D Theresa Greenfield
• Georgia: red state, tied now ... both Senate races competitive

A new post-debate survey from CNBC released on Thursday put Biden’s national lead at 13 points over Trump, a landslide margin. Republicans — many of whom were appalled by the president’s debate showing on Tuesday — are growing worried that Trump will lose in a rout and take the GOP’s Senate majority with him.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

If Biden flips Ohio it is over. Ohio has 18 EC votes.

If we weren't living in the Bizzarro-world of Trumpistan that would be the case. But they will still be able to contest every single ballot, force a tedious process that will not be completed by 12/8, thereby forcing it to the Trump kangaroo court.

538 Biden is now ahead in Ohio by +0.5%. All September, Trump lead by about 2%. Still close, but there is movement Biden's way.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

New polls feed GOP fears of Biden rout over Trump | TheHill

• South Carolina: Trump +14% in 2016, +1% now

I seriously want to urge caution on South Carolina and polling. I think I was looking at a Tennessee poll that showed things much closer than one would expect, like 10 pts, but in looking at similar polling at a similar distance from the election, Trump polled similarly and blew Clinton out on election day there.

Alaska: Trump +15% in 2016, tied now ... R Sen. Dan Sullivan having a strong challenge from D Al Gross

If the Dem isn't over 50%, I'm not hopeful

Iowa: Trump +9% in 2916, Biden a bit ahead now ... R Sen. Joni Ernst having a strong challenge from D Theresa Greenfield

Ann Selzer has this at 48 a piece, so this is close.

Georgia: red state, tied now ... both Senate races competitive

Georgia has historically polled closer than the final election results. It is slowly growing more purple, but I'm am not holding out on Georgia. My biggest problem is I don't see Biden winning Georgia by similar margins as NC and FL. That hasn't happened yet. So Biden is struggling with a very tight win in FL, winning GA seems impossible.

What matters?

Reestablish the wall with MI, WI, PA first. CO, NV, NH (these seem safer oddly enough). That is the election.

Follow Mark Kelly's coattails in AZ next. Then FL, NC, IA. All gravy except regarding the Senate races.

For comfort sakes, give Trump a five point bump in the lead for Biden to see where Trump could possibly be... everywhere but Arizona.

 

[Elixir]

For comfort sakes, give Trump a five point bump in the lead for Biden to see where Trump could possibly be... everywhere but Arizona.

I fear that the actual pad might be 7%, given the degree of cheating, suppression, Russian and FOX media propaganda, the gullibility of 42% ...
It is no rosy picture, despite the fact that the actual electoral part of the process is FAPP over. .

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There is no Libertarian screwing up the polling this year, so I think 5 pts is very gracious. Trump bumped up 7 or 8 pts in some states I think in 2016 where Johnson voters had a change of mind in the polls (or the election was stolen, we won't ever know).

 

[Elixir]

There is no Libertarian screwing up the polling this year, so I think 5 pts is very gracious. Trump bumped up 7 or 8 pts in some states I think in 2016 where Johnson voters had a change of mind in the polls (or the election was stolen, we won't ever know).

Yeah ... I keep imagining a scenario where Biden is up by around 8% in a State in the polls on election day, the exit polls have him up by 7%, but the count shows he won by 1% and the GOP lawyers contest the whole thing ...
A "safe" margin (one that is safe from Republican cheating) is probably well into double digits.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There is no Libertarian screwing up the polling this year, so I think 5 pts is very gracious. Trump bumped up 7 or 8 pts in some states I think in 2016 where Johnson voters had a change of mind in the polls (or the election was stolen, we won't ever know).

Yeah ... I keep imagining a scenario where Biden is up by around 8% in a State in the polls on election day, the exit polls have him up by 7%, but the count shows he won by 1% and the GOP lawyers contest the whole thing ...
A "safe" margin (one that is safe from Republican cheating) is probably well into double digits.

Exit polls mean nothing this year. With so much early voting, they won't represent enough voters.

 

[bilby]

There is no Libertarian screwing up the polling this year, so I think 5 pts is very gracious. Trump bumped up 7 or 8 pts in some states I think in 2016 where Johnson voters had a change of mind in the polls (or the election was stolen, we won't ever know).

Yeah ... I keep imagining a scenario where Biden is up by around 8% in a State in the polls on election day, the exit polls have him up by 7%, but the count shows he won by 1% and the GOP lawyers contest the whole thing ...
A "safe" margin (one that is safe from Republican cheating) is probably well into double digits.

Exit polls mean nothing this year. With so much early voting, they won't represent enough voters.

But they will represent an opportunity to justify a challenge to the results from the Trump campaign; And that's enough, as they control the judicial branch.

 

[Elixir]

It could be a moot point if this is true and it holds:

Biden's national lead over Trump jumps to 14 points after debate in NBC News/WSJ poll



Also wondering if no news is good* news regarding Trump's condition. Those polls were before he came down with his namesake virus.

*"Good" news being that he's circling the drain. If there were signs of improvement they'd be shouting it from the rooftops, I believe.

Seen on FB:

Trump’s doctor says Trump has no fever, is breathing just fine, walking around, oxygen levels are great. Also, Trump lost 50 pounds, is looking healthy and svelte, and nobody should call him obese anymore! He also reported that Trump is now 6’ 4” and the good doctor has extended Trump’s life expectancy from 200 years to at least 325 if he keeps hydrated and continues his cholesterol medication.

 

[Shadowy Man]

They wouldn’t say he lost 50 pounds because that would be admitting that he wasn’t already at the perfect weight.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

538

National - Biden is up +8.0%

Florida - Biden is up +2.9%
Michigan - Biden is up +6.9%
Pennsylvania - Biden is up +6.1%
Wisconsin - Biden is up +6.8%

Playing around at 270towin's interactive electoral college map, if Biden takes Florida and Arizona, Biden can have 339 electoral college votes.

29 days until election day

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

They wouldn’t say he lost 50 pounds because that would be admitting that he wasn’t already at the perfect weight.

They gave him an enema?

Cue Teenaged Enema Nurses In Bondage

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5ep8jp2zkQ

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Just had a pollster call me. I expressed enthusiastic support for Biden.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Just had a pollster call me. I expressed enthusiastic support for Biden.

Was it a Trump pollster? Are you actually voting for Biden or were you trolling him/her? It's cool if you are. The Democratic Party is a big tent party.

 

[Elixir]

Just had a pollster call me. I expressed enthusiastic support for Biden.

[removed]

 

[lpetrich]

Biden Holds Steady Lead Over Trump in Arizona, Latest Poll Finds - The New York Times - "The Democratic nominee leads 49 percent to 41 percent in Arizona, a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 1996. In the Senate race, Mark Kelly, a Democrat, leads the incumbent, Martha McSally."

In a sign of a brewing suburban backlash against the president, Mr. Biden’s lead in Maricopa County, the Phoenix-anchored population hub of the state, matches his statewide advantage. He’s leading by nine points in the county, which accounts for over 60 percent of the state’s population. It’s highly difficult to win Arizona without winning Maricopa, which Mr. Trump captured by three points in 2016.

The president’s standing with female voters and independents in the state has plunged since his victory four years ago, and, significantly, there appears to be far less interest in third-party candidates this year.

Seems like there is a good chance of an Obama-style blowout.

Referring to Biden and Kelly,

Both Democrats are benefiting from the alienation some more moderate Arizona Republicans feel toward the hard-line, Trump-led party

Mr. Biden and Mr. Kelly are winning far more registered Republicans — 9 percent and 12 percent — than Mr. Trump and Ms. McSally are capturing registered Democrats.

Long-simmering divisions between conservative and center-right Arizona Republicans have boiled over this year, with Jeff Flake, the former senator, and Cindy McCain, the widow of former Senator John McCain, both endorsing Mr. Biden. At the same time, a far-right Republican who challenged Mr. McCain in his last election, Kelli Ward, has taken over the state’s Republican Party.