Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[SLD]

A looming assault on Kyiv and Navalny calling for protests on Sunday. Hopefully many good Ukrainians repel the assault and many good Russians come out in protest.
With food, water and refugees becoming ever more critical issues, I think this will be a turning point in the war. And Fuckface von Clownstickinoff can see his end of days.

But is Putin inclined to listen to protesters in his own country, and change his mind about the war? From what I've seen of him so far, he's more likely to imprison them or slaughter them.

Maybe. But Putin can only issue orders. Others have to decide whether to carry them out. He’s not Stalin, as much as he’d like to be. The extent of his support may not be as deep as people think. His staying power is dependent upon success on the battlefield. That’s not happening. Recall what happened in 1991. Ordinary army units refused to carry out the orders of their seniors to pull a Tienanmen, and just like that the Soviet Union was no more. It could happen again, but it might take a more protracted conflict or a serious military setback first.

Putin has to be running scared. He can’t commit his total forces to Ukraine without risking an uprising at home. But if he backs out of Ukraine without a full victory, he will lose support from the elite, the FSB and the military. That’s his dilemma now. He’s a fool.

I saw one analysis comparing him to Jeff Davis and the oligarchs and others to the planter class that shoved secession on ordinary southerners. They thought that “King Cotton” would force the north and Europe to accept their move as a fair accompli. Sherman, in Louisiana, said they had lost all ability to reason. Their gambit failed. And southerners turned against their government. Europe did not support continued slavery and now Europe does not support continued oil and gas from Russia. Russian oil is selling for $25 less than Brent. And it’s still not finding buyers. Shell bowed to public pressure to stop purchases. The question is how long can that last? Predictions of $200/ barrel are now common, some are at $300.

Like the Confederacy, he’s facing economic collapse from an almost pure embargo. Prices will skyrocket, he’s facing debt default, and even China is balking at helping him further.

At some point, something has to give. And continued terror bombing of Ukraine, which is basically all he has left, doesn’t appear to be breaking the will to resist. The question is where is that point? Two weeks out? Two months? Or just two days?

 

[Elixir]

continued terror bombing of Ukraine, which is basically all he has left, doesn’t appear to be breaking the will to resist

The thing that has impressed me most in the past few days, has been Ukrainians’ absolute certainty that they will “win”. They should know their odds better than anyone, and they seem very sure that they’ll prevail - militarily and otherwise.
Quite a contrast to Russian tin soldiers mindlessly carrying out genocidal orders.

 

[SLD]

continued terror bombing of Ukraine, which is basically all he has left, doesn’t appear to be breaking the will to resist

The thing that has impressed me most in the past few days, has been Ukrainians’ absolute certainty that they will “win”. They should know their odds better than anyone, and they seem very sure that they’ll prevail - militarily and otherwise.
Quite a contrast to Russian tin soldiers mindlessly carrying out genocidal orders.

They don’t have to throw them out to win, they just have to hold them off for a few more months at most. The longer they resist, the weaker Putin becomes.

 

[Jayjay]

continued terror bombing of Ukraine, which is basically all he has left, doesn’t appear to be breaking the will to resist

The thing that has impressed me most in the past few days, has been Ukrainians’ absolute certainty that they will “win”. They should know their odds better than anyone, and they seem very sure that they’ll prevail - militarily and otherwise.
Quite a contrast to Russian tin soldiers mindlessly carrying out genocidal orders.

They don’t have to throw them out to win, they just have to hold them off for a few more months at most. The longer they resist, the weaker Putin becomes.

Mariupol won't last months. No food, water or power means it will surrender any day now. And I doubt Ukraine can recapture any of the cities Russia has already occupied.

 

[Copernicus]

Zelensky has come to label this a "war of annihilation". It has taken on a genocidal character with the bombing and shelling of civilian targets. Kyiv (Kiev) is the historic capital of the Kievan Rus', and Putin has spouted the ultranationalist doctrine that Ukraine is actually part of Russia. Zelensky has defiantly said that they will only take Kyiv by killing everyone, and then they will have to live there by themselves.

Speaking at a news conference, Zelenskyy said the Russians could take the Ukrainian capital "only if they kill us all.”

“If that is their goal, let them come," he said. "If they carry out carpet bombings and wipe off the historic memory of the entire region, the history of Kyivan Rus, the history of Europe, they could enter Kyiv but they will have to leave on that land alone, certainly without us.

To paraphrase an old meme from the Vietnam war: they can only save Ukraine by destroying it. No negotiation is possible with such people other than surrender or resistance. For now, Ukraine chooses resistance.

 

[SLD]

continued terror bombing of Ukraine, which is basically all he has left, doesn’t appear to be breaking the will to resist

The thing that has impressed me most in the past few days, has been Ukrainians’ absolute certainty that they will “win”. They should know their odds better than anyone, and they seem very sure that they’ll prevail - militarily and otherwise.
Quite a contrast to Russian tin soldiers mindlessly carrying out genocidal orders.

They don’t have to throw them out to win, they just have to hold them off for a few more months at most. The longer they resist, the weaker Putin becomes.

Mariupol won't last months. No food, water or power means it will surrender any day now. And I doubt Ukraine can recapture any of the cities Russia has already occupied.

Mariupol probably won’t last too much longer, but every day they resist helps the overall effort. And the Ukrainians don’t need to retake that city. My fear is that its fall would free up troops to attack other cities. But the Russians still have to hold the areas that they took.

 

[bilby]

Mariupol won't last months. No food, water or power means it will surrender any day now.

I expect Field Marshall von Leeb said much the same about Leningrad in 1941

 

[Jayjay]

continued terror bombing of Ukraine, which is basically all he has left, doesn’t appear to be breaking the will to resist

The thing that has impressed me most in the past few days, has been Ukrainians’ absolute certainty that they will “win”. They should know their odds better than anyone, and they seem very sure that they’ll prevail - militarily and otherwise.
Quite a contrast to Russian tin soldiers mindlessly carrying out genocidal orders.

They don’t have to throw them out to win, they just have to hold them off for a few more months at most. The longer they resist, the weaker Putin becomes.

Mariupol won't last months. No food, water or power means it will surrender any day now. And I doubt Ukraine can recapture any of the cities Russia has already occupied.

Mariupol probably won’t last too much longer, but every day they resist helps the overall effort. And the Ukrainians don’t need to retake that city. My fear is that its fall would free up troops to attack other cities. But the Russians still have to hold the areas that they took.

Mariupol gives Russia land access to Crimea. It's one of the key objectives for the war; I don't see how Ukraine can be said to "win" if it lets Russia keep Mariupol.

I suppose you're right if Ukraine downgrades its definition of "win" to "survival".

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Mariupol gives Russia land access to Crimea. It's one of the key objectives for the war; I don't see how Ukraine can be said to "win" if it lets Russia keep Mariupol.

I suppose you're right if Ukraine downgrades its definition of "win" to "survival".

If they take the city now they have to deal with a city full of resistance. Leave troops there, they get harassed, pull them out, they lose the city.

 

[Patooka]

Is it too early to predict what Putin's "Mission Accomplished" moment will look like? I'm guessing riding/driving a tank past the Kremlin shirtless whilst proclaiming complete success.

 

[Jayjay]

Mariupol gives Russia land access to Crimea. It's one of the key objectives for the war; I don't see how Ukraine can be said to "win" if it lets Russia keep Mariupol.

I suppose you're right if Ukraine downgrades its definition of "win" to "survival".

If they take the city now they have to deal with a city full of resistance. Leave troops there, they get harassed, pull them out, they lose the city.

Harassment from resistance fighters doesn't seem to be a problem anywhere else that Russia has already occupied.

 

[bilby]

Mariupol gives Russia land access to Crimea. It's one of the key objectives for the war; I don't see how Ukraine can be said to "win" if it lets Russia keep Mariupol.

I suppose you're right if Ukraine downgrades its definition of "win" to "survival".

If they take the city now they have to deal with a city full of resistance. Leave troops there, they get harassed, pull them out, they lose the city.

Harassment from resistance fighters doesn't seem to be a problem anywhere else that Russia has already occupied.

How would we know? The Kremlin aren't going to be falling over themselves to talk about it, if it is happening.

And first they've got to take the city. Urban warfare is seriously tough even for a well trained, well equipped, and highly motivated attacking force. Russian soldiers don't appear to have any of these three attributes.

 

[SigmatheZeta]

Everyone join me in wishing Moscow a Jericho.

 

[Patooka]

Everyone join me in wishing Moscow a Jericho.

Might require a bit of context here.

 

[Jayjay]

Everyone join me in wishing Moscow a Jericho.

Might require a bit of context here.

 Jericho_(2006_TV_series) was cancelled due to low ratings, much to the dismay of its fans. That would indeed be a fitting end to Putin's reign.

Though h I think the original poster had something more biblical in mind.

 

[Patooka]

Everyone join me in wishing Moscow a Jericho.

Might require a bit of context here.

 Jericho_(2006_TV_series) was cancelled due to low ratings, much to the dismay of its fans. That would indeed be a fitting end to Putin's reign.

Though h I think the original poster had something more biblical in mind.

I thought it might be either the show or the biblical reference but wasn't sure. Either way a devastating holocaust isn't what I would call a favourable outcome.

 

[Elixir]

A couple of things today …

War crimes: Russian combatants have killed a clearly identified American reporter carrying a huge “PRESS” sign.
They are destroying homes for no reason other than to displace non-combatants.

A Ukrainian member of Parliament reports that the Ukrainian army is not taking new volunteers because they are full up.

Putin has gone totally bonkers. Russian media are already talking about their next moves into Poland and Lithuania.

I think the EU may come around and NATO will be forced to take Russia apart, nukes or no nukes.

 

[Patooka]

Russian combatants have killed a clearly identified American reporter carrying a huge “PRESS” sign.

Oh for fuck's sake Elixir, how many fucking times? There are no reporters in Ukraine, only Nazi sympathizers. Get it right!

 

[SigmatheZeta]

Everyone join me in wishing Moscow a Jericho.

Might require a bit of context here.

The Battle of Jericho was from the Old Testament. Supposedly, the walls of Jericho crumbled on their own, and it was insinuated that this was a judgment against the city's own immoral character.

To wish Moscow a Jericho is to wish for Moscow to fall to pieces because of the very wickedness that would drive them into murdering civilians in the name of military domination.

 

[Rhea]

Is it too early to predict what Putin's "Mission Accomplished" moment will look like? I'm guessing riding/driving a tank past the Kremlin shirtless whilst proclaiming complete success.

I feel like there is a possibility that his moment looks like the Oligarchs deciding he is no longer useful and either taking him out biologically, or taking him out by isolating him adminstratively or militarily.

So what it looks like to *us* is that he becomes weak and is replaced or appears to “resign.” What is real is brutal and invisible.