Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

[ZiprHead]

 

[Elixir]

Terrorists, plain and simple.
At some point they're going to have to be brought up as such.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If Russians are doing that, I don't see how they are going to win this fast enough to make it worth imploding their economy for.

 

[Trausti]

 

[Jayjay]

According to Ukrainian government, Belarus will join the attack tonight. Which makes sense, because if Russia needs more manpower, he can twist Lukashenka's arm and force him to give him the men and tanks needed to storm Kyiv. Also, it seems that there will allegedly be "volunteers" from Syria. A favor from Bashar Assad no doubt.

This is like watching a train crash in slow motion. Occasionally you get fun videos of Russian tanks being blown up, but the overall picture is pretty bleak for Ukraine. 1500 dead in Mariupol, that's running out of food and water. The convey outside Kyiv (or whatever is left of it) has dispersed and might be ready to attack. Mykolaiv may fall soon too, and then it's Odessa.

 

[Trausti]

This is like watching a train crash in slow motion.

Yes. And our political leadership is failing. There should be diplomacy to end the war before it morphs into something worse. We can leverage both sides. Instead, we’re pouring fuel on the flame. As much as I dislike Biden, am grateful he nixed the no-fly zone and Migs.

 

[Copernicus]

This is like watching a train crash in slow motion.

Yes. And our political leadership is failing. There should be diplomacy to end the war before it morphs into something worse. We can leverage both sides. Instead, we’re pouring fuel on the flame. As much as I dislike Biden, am grateful he nixed the no-fly zone and Migs.

Actually, most people are giving Biden very high marks for his handling of this crisis so far. His strategy of declassifying intelligence about Russian troop buildups and communications has done a lot to blunt the effectiveness of Russia's propaganda machine. And he has been highly successful at rallying allies and leading the international response to Russia's aggression. There are few US politicians with the experience to handle this crisis as well. One can only shudder to think of what would have happened, if Trump had somehow managed to cling to another term in office. He would not have been capable of imposing such broad economic isolation on Russia, even if he had had the will to do so. Everyone would have to be consulting Twitter to find out what his thoughts were on the subject, assuming that they would have restored his account.

 

[Jayjay]

This is like watching a train crash in slow motion.

Yes. And our political leadership is failing.

I disagree. The western political leadership across the pond has been exceptionally competent and unified. Certainly the response has been much more than what Putin anticipated. But this too, shall pass. Hungary has already said that it will block any EU-level sanctions on Russian gas and oil. In time, other cracks will form, and Russia will take advantage of that.

 

[crazyfingers]

One can only shudder to think of what would have happened, if Trump had somehow managed to cling to another term in office.

Trump on a podcast two days ago was asked what he thought about the situation in Ukraine.

Donald Trump was asked about the future of Ukraine. He started talking about windmills | CNN Politics

On Wednesday, former President Donald Trump sat down with the "Full Send" podcast for nearly an hour.

www.cnn.com

Forgeard: "What do you see happening next then? 'Cause it seems like the tensions are high. How does this all end? Is this going to be like a long-term thing? How do you see it unfolding?

Trump: "Well, and I said this a long time ago, if this happens, we are playing right into their hands. Green energy. The windmills. They don't work. They're too expensive. They kill all the birds. They ruin your landscapes. And yet the environmentalists love the windmills. And I've been preaching this for years. The windmills. And I had them way down. But the windmills are the most expensive energy you can have. And they don't work. And by the way, they last a period of 10 years and by the time they start rusting and rotting all over the place, nobody ever takes them down. They just go on to the next piece of prairie or land and destroy that."

There you go. A totally sensible answer.

 

[bilby]

However, the more difficult question is how to get those warplanes into Ukraine.

Put them in a shipping container, and send them by road or rail.

You just need a small team of skilled technicians to reassemble them at the destination airfield; If Ukraine doesn't have such a team, then you can send them along too.

Cuba was sending MiGs to North Korea in shipping containers a decade ago, so I am sure it can still be done today.

Train route to Ukraine likely isn't a simple one.

There are a couple of rail lines that cross the Ukraine-Poland border; Plus half a dozen major road crossings with customs facilities; Plus dozens of places where a few minutes work dismantling fences would enable a truck to cross (assuming a blind eye from authorities on both sides); Plus thousands of places where remote dirt roads are within metres of each other on either side of the border (and on Google Maps you can see suspicious clearings in the forest that link these remote tracks).

I imagine that people have been smuggling stuff across that border for as long as it has existed, and that if you have the (perhaps clandestine) support of both governments, or even just of a couple of corrupt officials, its very easy to get anything across the border, if it fits in a shipping container.

The Russians might try to bomb your vehicles once they're on the Ukrainian side, but so far their airforce hasn't been very impressive. And first they've got to find you. And identify your MiG containers, amongst all those trucks and trains carrying other things.

 

[Copernicus]

However, the more difficult question is how to get those warplanes into Ukraine.

Put them in a shipping container, and send them by road or rail.

You just need a small team of skilled technicians to reassemble them at the destination airfield; If Ukraine doesn't have such a team, then you can send them along too.

Cuba was sending MiGs to North Korea in shipping containers a decade ago, so I am sure it can still be done today.

Train route to Ukraine likely isn't a simple one.

There are a couple of rail lines that cross the Ukraine-Poland border; Plus half a dozen major road crossings with customs facilities; Plus dozens of places where a few minutes work dismantling fences would enable a truck to cross (assuming a blind eye from authorities on both sides); Plus thousands of places where remote dirt roads are within metres of each other on either side of the border (and on Google Maps you can see suspicious clearings in the forest that link these remote tracks).

I imagine that people have been smuggling stuff across that border for as long as it has existed, and that if you have the (perhaps clandestine) support of both governments, or even just of a couple of corrupt officials, its very easy to get anything across the border, if it fits in a shipping container.

The Russians might try to bomb your vehicles once they're on the Ukrainian side, but so far their airforce hasn't been very impressive. And first they've got to find you. And identify your MiG containers, amongst all those trucks and trains carrying other things.

Russia has started attacking western Ukraine now, so I don't think that rail transport is a sure thing, especially if we are shipping war materiel via rail. It wouldn't take much to blow up rail lines and rail stations.

Another problem is that we are now in the third week, and people will be running out of supplies of food. In addition to the deaths and injuries caused by shelling and bombing, they will likely be facing severe shortages of food and water without a means to resupply across long distances. The Russian forces are also hungry, and they have already been seen looting the territories they occupy of food and medical supplies, not to mention other booty from local stores.

 

[barbos]

The Russian reply to this charge, of course, is that Ukrainian Nazis did it in order to make Russians look bad

Ah yes, those mthical Nazi's that have evaded detection, capture or even being photographed

To be fair, there is what started off as the Azov battalion, a right-wing extremist, neo-Nazi, formerly paramilitary unit of the National Guard of Ukraine, and at least some of its units have been photographed.

It was formed in May 2014. On 12 November 2014, the battallion was incorporated into the National Guard of Ukraine. Since then all members have been official soldiers serving in the National Guard. As membership grew, the battallion became a regiment. In 2017 the size of the regiment was estimated at more than 2,500 members.

That said, Putin's claim of liberating Ukraine from Nazi oppression is a bizarre thing to say about a country whose head of state, elected by popular vote, is Jewish.

We have discussed that at length. No, that's not bizarre thing at all. These are 100% nazi.

 

[Copernicus]

We have discussed that at length. No, that's not bizarre thing at all. These are 100% nazi.

Indeed, we have discussed that at length, and that is why we all know that your assertion is 100% false.

 

[Hermit]

Putin's claim of liberating Ukraine from Nazi oppression is a bizarre thing to say about a country whose head of state, elected by popular vote, is Jewish.

We have discussed that at length. No, that's not bizarre thing at all. These are 100% nazi.

The fact that the Nazi elements in Ukraine could not prevent a Jew from becoming Ukraine's head of state by popular vote makes Putin's claim of liberating Ukraine from Nazi oppression as bizarre as such claims can get.

 

[TV and credit cards]

A looming assault on Kyiv and Navalny calling for protests on Sunday. Hopefully many good Ukrainians repel the assault and many good Russians come out in protest.
With food, water and refugees becoming ever more critical issues, I think this will be a turning point in the war. And Fuckface von Clownstickinoff can see his end of days.

 

[SigmatheZeta]

Mutual aid!

How this baker is resisting the Russian onslaught without picking up a gun | CNN

As Ukrainians around the country gathered glass bottles for Molotov cocktails and armed themselves against the Russian onslaught, Pavlo Servetnyk headed for the kitchen.

www.cnn.com

What is going on, here, is that this guy knows that there is really something sinister about Russia's food trucks. They are actually a weapon in their own right. By cutting the people of Kherson off from other sources of food, they are forcing the people of Kherson to accept the presence of Russian troops, simply as a consequence of the fact that the alternative is starvation.

By organizing local bakers, this guy is reducing how much the people can be made to depend on these food trucks, and he is establishing a mutual aid culture. Mutual aid cultures are very hard to dislodge once established, and they can make societies proof against subjugation.

The reason why this works as a weapon against oppression is that, when Ukrainian troops eventually come back to reclaim Kherson, this will have the impact of cutting off Russian food trucks, not just limit the Russian government's military control over the city. If the people are dependent upon Russian food trucks for their survival, though, then the Russian government might be able to persuade those people to believe that they will starve if Ukrainian troops were to drive them away. By conscripting those people who have been so deceived to fight on the Russian side, they would slow down the advancement of Ukrainian troops back into Kherson, thereby creating a self-fulfilling prophecy: due to the slowness of Ukraine in restoring Ukrainian aid to Kherson, Russia would be able to reinforce the association between the return of Ukrainian troops and privation, thereby further swaying people to act against a return of Ukrainian troops and, they hope, to eventually create a militant pro-Russian faction within Kherson that could keep Ukraine bogged down in a quagmire there for months and potentially leave them with several years of political instability in the town.

By establishing a mutual aid culture, this man is reducing the people's dependence upon Russian food trucks, and this will thereby soften the economic blow when Ukrainian troops start making headway in getting back into Kherson. This would give Russia less ability to attract defectors, and this would reduce their ability to slow down Ukrainian advancement back into Kherson. A swift return of Ukrainian control would empower Ukraine to establish their own supply-chains going into Kherson, thereby further diminishing Russia's ability to use their carrot-and-stick authoritarianism to establish control.

While mutual aid alone is not a formal, structured, organized anarchist doctrine, it constitutes one of the animal underpinnings of anarchism. This man is doing what he is doing as a means of resistance against unwanted authority. This is WHY mutual aid is inherently anti-authoritarian. It's not JUST an act of kindness, but it's also an act of war.

In a way, you could say that kindness itself is an act of war.

 

[Elixir]

The fact that the Nazi elements in Ukraine could not prevent a Jew from becoming Ukraine's head of state by popular vote makes Putin's claim of liberating Ukraine from Nazi oppression as bizarre as such claims can get.

The fact the Barbos can’t comprehend how bizarre the claims he parrots really are, speaks to cerebral degradation that can only come from gluttonous consumption of badly constructed propaganda.

 

[Elixir]

the issue is that there are just so many Russians who are willing to die for the Putin death cult.

I think the case is that they are more willing to risk death at the hands of Ukrainians defending their country, than to face certain death at the hands of Pootey’s thugs for not doing so.

 

[thebeave]

A looming assault on Kyiv and Navalny calling for protests on Sunday. Hopefully many good Ukrainians repel the assault and many good Russians come out in protest.
With food, water and refugees becoming ever more critical issues, I think this will be a turning point in the war. And Fuckface von Clownstickinoff can see his end of days.

But is Putin inclined to listen to protesters in his own country, and change his mind about the war? From what I've seen of him so far, he's more likely to imprison them or slaughter them.

 

[ZiprHead]

A looming assault on Kyiv and Navalny calling for protests on Sunday. Hopefully many good Ukrainians repel the assault and many good Russians come out in protest.
With food, water and refugees becoming ever more critical issues, I think this will be a turning point in the war. And Fuckface von Clownstickinoff can see his end of days.

But is Putin inclined to listen to protesters in his own country, and change his mind about the war?

Doubtful.

From what I've seen of him so far, he's more likely to imprison them or slaughter them.

Yup.

His tactic means that he know the Russian people would not approve of his actions.