It's no longer a question of
Whether there will be Civil War in the U.S. It's a question of
When. The thread title speaks of 2025, but the opening shots in this war are being fired in 2022. By 2025 the War may be over, with elections stolen, sometimes with violence, and the GOP in complete control of the federal government. Millions in the Republican rank-and-file are now openly calling for war. A large majority of GOP Congresspeople implicitly supported the 6 Jan '21 coup attempt. The few who opposed it and are up for re-election were almost all either booted out of office by GOP voters in primary elections, or retired to avoid that outcome.
The fervor has taken hold in local elections:
Randy Meppelink was an incumbent
Republican County Commissioner running for re-election. But he is not right-wing enough and received 400 hate-filled emails per day beginning in mid 2001 and continuing until the election two weeks ago.
At first, the hate mail compared Randy Meppelink to Adolf Hitler and told him to go to hell.
Then it got worse, Meppelink said.
In the following months, in fall 2021, emails addressed to the second-term Ottawa County commissioner escalated into death threats for him and his wife, Meppelink said.
He was defeated by a 3-to-1 margin by Joe Moss who campaigned on sound-bites like "Life begins at conception." and "No woke indoctrination."
GOP officials at the top levels are calling to resist federal power:
Rep. Paul Gosar: “I will support a complete dismantling and elimination of the democrat brown shirts known as the FBI. This is too much for our republic to withstand @charliekirk11 @JackPosobiec @kelliwardaz @KariLake @andybiggs4az @GOPLeader @DonaldJTrumpJr.”
Anthony Sabatini, a Florida state representative and candidate for Congress, was prepared to dismantle the whole federal structure: “It’s time for us in the Florida Legislature to call an emergency legislative session & amend our laws regarding federal agencies. Sever all ties with DOJ immediately. Any FBI agent conducting law enforcement functions outside the purview of our State should be arrested upon sight.”
Some GOP Senators are calling for "at a minimum" the impeachment of General Garland, whose sin was executing a search warrant against the head of a major crime family suspected of espionage and treason.
Predictions give the GOP a 77% chance of gaining control of the House of Representatives this November without even resorting to violence or cheating. (Since they've said in so many words that they WILL cheat or incite their bullies to violence if necessary, the actual chance is closer to 90%.) That will make Kevin McCarthy one of the two most powerful men in Washington, DC. He has announced that the plan will be to bring Biden's government to a standstill while the GOP pursues a vendetta against Garland:
@GOPLeader said:
I’ve seen enough. The Department of Justice has reached an intolerable state of weaponized politicization. When Republicans take back the House, we will conduct immediate oversight of this department, follow the facts, and leave no stone unturned.
Attorney General Garland, preserve your documents and clear your calendar.
And this despicable rhetoric gets shriller and shriller despite the obvious dangers. Deluded Americans have already attacked FBI offices with weapons, and are planning better organized attacks. Yet Republican politicians continue to incite such crimes, either wanting civil war, or viewing it as a minor side-effect of their pursuit of greed and power.
The Atlantic said:
The Gateway Pundit, a pro-Trump outlet, wrote “This. Means. War”—which was “quickly amplified by a Telegram account connected to Stephen K. Bannon, Mr. Trump’s onetime political adviser,” according to The New York Times. Bannon called the FBI “the Gestapo” and said, “We need to choke down the FBI and choke down the Justice Department.” Another former Trump adviser, Michael Caputo, said, “With this militant raid on President Trump’s home, we have become Russia. The FBI is the KGB.” And Fox’s Dan Bongino called the FBI’s action “some third-world bullshit.”
Dinesh D’Souza, a right-wing provocateur who received a pardon from Trump for campaign-finance violations, said, “The FBI, an organization set up to fight organized crime, has become the most powerful organized crime syndicate in the world. We now need to carry the fight against organized crime to its logical conclusion: Shut down the FBI and prosecute this gang of dangerous criminals.”
. . .
Bannon, busily making the rounds, told the conspiracist Alex Jones, “I do not think it’s beyond this administrative state and their deep-state apparatus to actually try to work on the assassination of President Trump.” This charge was echoed by former New York City Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik, who said he is worried Democrats might try to assassinate Donald Trump. “I’m gonna tell you something: I’m not into conspiracies; I’m not into anti-government rhetoric,” Kerik said. “This is the first time in my lifetime that I would say I am deathly afraid for Donald Trump. I would not put assassination behind these people.”
Kari Lake, running for governor in Arizona, called the FBI’s search of Trump’s home “one of the darkest days in American history: the day our government, originally created by the people, turned against us.” She added, “This illegitimate, corrupt regime hates America and has weaponized the entirety of the federal government to take down President Donald Trump.”
With this kind of rhetoric, the DoJ will not dare to arrest Trump, no matter how guilty they can prove him to be. But leaving Trump and other right-wing criminals alone will not quell the calls for violence.
As right-wing hatreds continue to rise, expect anyone who is not a White Christian to be targetted in some right-leaning communities. They will be harassed; house-burnings are likely. Many police departments in the country have already made clear that they will take the side of White supremacists. When blacks or immigrants try to fight back, armed Trumpists (probably supported by police) will march through urban ghettos firing indiscriminately and claiming "self-defense." Trumpists will use force to prevent Democratic-majority precincts from voting, and to destroy businesses owned by Democratic-leaning businessmen.
We won't see large set-piece battles as in the First American Civil War. The Second Civil War will resemble the massacres we saw 100 years ago, e.g. in Tulsa, but will spread across the entire country.
Non-military and paramilitary forces are not really relevant to a civil war in any nation with a powerful regular military force, and the US has one of the most powerful regular militaries in history.
Neither right wing nor left wing second amendment enthusiasts can make a serious stand against the US Army, so the only way to get a civil war (as opposed to a campaign of terrorism with isolated acts of violence) would be for the army to split its loyalties.
There's a reason why the leaders of many revolutions are Colonels or Generals; An army officer (or group of officers) with command of a significant fraction of the military, needs to decide to support the anti-government forces (and to retain the loyalty of his subordinates when he does so), or there can be no civil war.
The only way I see that happening in the US would be to have a group of senior officers who are completely convinced that the government has already been unconstitutionally subverted. If a bunch of redneck yahoos with ARs think Biden (or his successor) has stolen Trump's rightful presidency, then they can make a criminal nuisance of themselves, but any 'civil war' exists only in their heads. But if a cabal of officers in command of a worthwhile fraction of the military buy into the claim that Trump has been robbed, then that's a very different and very dangerous thing.
Even if officers and soldiers remain loyal to the Constitution — a big If — the U.S. Army is not equipped to fight the sort of terroristic and urban warfare we may expect. Look at how badly they fared in Afghanistan; can you expect them to do better in the U.S.A.?
