• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

The predominant factor in black deaths by police is more crimes commited - not racism

Crime, Victims and Offenders

From the link above

Problems with the UCR
  • The UCR reports only crimes reported to the police. See The Dark Figure of Crime
  • The UCR reports only the most serious crime incident
  • The UCR does not collect all relevant data.
  • The UCR reveals more about police behavior that in does about criminality.

Problems with the NCVS
  • The NCVS is limited in scope
  • Interview data may be unreliable
    • Memory error
    • Telescoping
    • Errors of deception
    • Sampling errors

Problems with Self-Report Surveys
  • Self-report survey data are not always reliable
  • Self-report studies often exclude serious chronic offenders
  • Self-report studies typically discover trivial events

This is not to say that these sources are not without their uses, but that they are not comprehensive, complete, and rather limited in their use.
 
Crime, Victims and Offenders

From the link above

Problems with the UCR
  • The UCR reports only crimes reported to the police. See The Dark Figure of Crime
  • The UCR reports only the most serious crime incident
  • The UCR does not collect all relevant data.
  • The UCR reveals more about police behavior that in does about criminality.

Problems with the NCVS
  • The NCVS is limited in scope
  • Interview data may be unreliable
    • Memory error
    • Telescoping
    • Errors of deception
    • Sampling errors

Problems with Self-Report Surveys
  • Self-report survey data are not always reliable
  • Self-report studies often exclude serious chronic offenders
  • Self-report studies typically discover trivial events

This is not to say that these sources are not without their uses, but that they are not comprehensive, complete, and rather limited in their use.

Do you have another source that attempts to adjust for these problems to give a more accurate picture? It's one thing to say that the source isn't 100% reliable and therefore of limited use, it's quite another to say that because it isn't 100% reliable that therefore many shootings of blacks by police and many of the violent crime arrests of blacks are due to racism. You still need to present the more reliable data to demonstrate the racism in these two cases, with an attempt to show the magnitude of the problem.

Also, how do you explain that the arrest rates and the victimization surveys match up pretty closely?
 
Crime, Victims and Offenders

From the link above

Problems with the UCR
  • The UCR reports only crimes reported to the police. See The Dark Figure of Crime
  • The UCR reports only the most serious crime incident
  • The UCR does not collect all relevant data.
  • The UCR reveals more about police behavior that in does about criminality.

Problems with the NCVS
  • The NCVS is limited in scope
  • Interview data may be unreliable
    • Memory error
    • Telescoping
    • Errors of deception
    • Sampling errors

Problems with Self-Report Surveys
  • Self-report survey data are not always reliable
  • Self-report studies often exclude serious chronic offenders
  • Self-report studies typically discover trivial events

This is not to say that these sources are not without their uses, but that they are not comprehensive, complete, and rather limited in their use.

Do you have another source that attempts to adjust for these problems to give a more accurate picture? It's one thing to say that the source isn't 100% reliable and therefore of limited use, it's quite another to say that because it isn't 100% reliable that therefore many shootings of blacks by police and many of the violent crime arrests of blacks are due to racism. You still need to present the more reliable data to demonstrate the racism in these two cases, with an attempt to show the magnitude of the problem.

Also, how do you explain that the arrest rates and the victimization surveys match up pretty closely?

Well so far the only people who don't know these and acknowledge the shortcomings of sources are handful of people here, so you go look. You will find that people in the fields of criminology and sociology agree pretty much with me, or rather I agree with them.

As for why the studies closely resemble each other, I don't know why, and I don't have to. YOU have provided an explanation why it is so important that they do. Night time in Chicago and New York both are dark, doesn't make them the same place. Both my parent lost their fathers before they were grown, didn't make them brother and sister.
 
Do you have another source that attempts to adjust for these problems to give a more accurate picture? It's one thing to say that the source isn't 100% reliable and therefore of limited use, it's quite another to say that because it isn't 100% reliable that therefore many shootings of blacks by police and many of the violent crime arrests of blacks are due to racism. You still need to present the more reliable data to demonstrate the racism in these two cases, with an attempt to show the magnitude of the problem.

Also, how do you explain that the arrest rates and the victimization surveys match up pretty closely?

Well so far the only people who don't know these and acknowledge the shortcomings of sources are handful of people here, so you go look. You will find that people in the fields of criminology and sociology agree pretty much with me, or rather I agree with them.

As for why the studies closely resemble each other, I don't know why, and I don't have to. YOU have provided an explanation why it is so important that they do. Night time in Chicago and New York both are dark, doesn't make them the same place. Both my parent lost their fathers before they were grown, didn't make them brother and sister.

At this point, we are left with no evidence of racism in the data, and the other hypothesis I have presented to explain the difference in violent crime arrest rates and police killings of blacks vs. whites has not been falsified, just called into question because the data isn't 100% reliable. I ask once again, where is the demonstrated racism in the data for arrest rates for violent crimes and police killings? Are you saying that no such data exists? If so, then it is illogical to conclude that racism is a major issue in the police departments as far as arrests for violent crimes and police killings are concerned. The claim is not supported. Faith that the claim is true and anecdotes on why it must be true is not scientific. Not only that, but even if racism is a factor, we have absolutely no way of being able to say how big the problem is and how much progress has been made over the last 50 years. Absolutely no way of determining which policies implemented in PDs reduce the number of racism influenced killings and arrests and which ones don't. Sounds like groups claiming racism haven't even begun with step one of demonstrating the amount of racism scientifically, which is required for step two: demonstration of the reduction in the amount of racism influence in police departments using various possible methods. Unscientific and unsupported claims are a very poor method to use to determine policy and allocate resources and attention.
 
1. A society has racist tendencies.

2. Racial minorities are demonized and believed to be deviant and more prone to crime.

3. Cities are segregated on racial lines.

4. A greater police presence exists in neighborhoods in the demonized segments of society.

5. More arrests are made where the greatest police presence exists.

There is not more crime in the racially segregated sections of the society. There is just a greater police presence.

And a lot of false arrests and convictions.

[Citation needed]

Furthermore, look at any map of reported crimes. You'll find a big hot spot in the inner city areas. Are you saying that's simply a fabrication??

Here's a map of recent (a couple of days) reports where I live. Look at how the reports cluster. Ignore the cluster along Las Vegas Blvd--that's a collection of skyscraper hotels, the number of people there is huge, of course you have more incidents.

On the map I'm seeing (given the short time frame this could change) there's a big cluster of assaults just east of downtown. That's an area you don't want to be wandering around after dark.

Hundreds of years of race based slavery, a hundred years of legal racial discrimination, and 50 years of racial profiling and disproportionate imprisonment based on race.

And I need a citation to prove the US has racist tendencies?

If we look at black neighborhoods by far the greatest crime is forced poverty achieved through underfunded schools and limited opportunity and the drug war.
 
I am still waiting for the explanation for why the two statistics should be correlated. All I get is some form of "Figure it out yourself" which suggests to me that there is no logical reason for the two to be correlated otherwise I would have received a real explanation.

Apparently you are missing the obvious: Police shootings are highly correlated with violent crime.

High correlation, indeed! Unfortunately, police are rarely charged with these violent crimes.

See Tamir Rice and John Crawford, to begin with.
 
Just because you don't like reality doesn't make it go away. When was your last staditics class?
This has nothing to do with what I like or don't like. I have had statistics at the Ph.D. level.
It's not a biased process because you're looking at everything and seeing what matters.
Not the way you explained it.
In the old days of manual calculations you could get bias from failing to consider a possibility and thus not checking it. The computer doesn't do that sort of thing, though.
I think you need to take a statistics class. Picking variables by their additions to the goodness of fit of the model generates biased estimates.

In other words, I'm right, ignore the reality.
Logic fail. I asked for an explanation and Barbarian was the first poster who actually gave an explanation. I observed there are some flaws in the explanation, but I now see the reasoning behind the claim.

Since the statistics on people killed by the cops were what started this thread you can't then say they're incomplete and thus not relevant!
Extreme logic fail on two counts. If the statistics are incomplete, they are incomplete which makes drawing valid inferences from them problematic. And I never said the statistics were not relevant.
 
Learn a little something about statistics!

These days with the computer you run *ALL* combinations of the variables you have to see what inputs matter. An input matters if you get a better prediction using it than not using it. An input is a proxy if it's correlated with the results but does nothing to improve the accuracy of your prediction when you consider other variables. There's nothing biased about this.
It is clear you do not know what  Bias_of_an_estimator means. Nor its implications in modelling (see http://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/13643/bias-an-intuitive-definition for an explanation you may be able to comprehend).
 
Apparently you are missing the obvious: Police shootings are highly correlated with violent crime.
I realize this is going to be difficult but I am trying to reason beyond the obvious. First, I don't know that police shootings are highly correlated with violent crime, so please substantiate that. Second, why is that?
 
ii) It implies that Whites benefitted overall from enslavement of and racism against Blacks, which is patent nonsense. Slavery in America has made everyone alive today worse off than they would have been were there no slavery.

This is simply untrue. America went from a backwater collection of colonies to an economic powerhouse during the Industrial Revolution because of slavery. Without slavery, those cotton plantations would not have existed. Without King Cotton (and his little sister tobacco, and their good friend sugar), the USA would never have risen to become a major player in the import/export world. And slavery was essential to the profitable large-scale farming of all three.

Even before the rise of cotton, slavery made the Americas a profitable trade destination, via the Trade Triangle: Slaves from Africa were shipped to the Americas and sold, then sugar (farmed by plantation slaves) was purchased and shipped to New England, where it in turn was sold and rum (and other goods) shipped from New England to Europe. Had there been no slavery, there would have been no profit in trading with the New World, and thus no American exports to Europe.

Read up on the history of slavery and its impact on the global economy:

How Slavery Helped Build a World Economy (National Geographic)

Was slavery the engine of American economic growth? (Gilder Lehman institute of American History)

and last but not least:

How Does Slavery Benefit White People Today?
 
[Citation needed]

Furthermore, look at any map of reported crimes. You'll find a big hot spot in the inner city areas. Are you saying that's simply a fabrication??

Here's a map of recent (a couple of days) reports where I live. Look at how the reports cluster. Ignore the cluster along Las Vegas Blvd--that's a collection of skyscraper hotels, the number of people there is huge, of course you have more incidents.

On the map I'm seeing (given the short time frame this could change) there's a big cluster of assaults just east of downtown. That's an area you don't want to be wandering around after dark.

Hundreds of years of race based slavery, a hundred years of legal racial discrimination, and 50 years of racial profiling and disproportionate imprisonment based on race.

And I need a citation to prove the US has racist tendencies?

If we look at black neighborhoods by far the greatest crime is forced poverty achieved through underfunded schools and limited opportunity and the drug war.

In other words, you're not interested in evidence. Your bible says it's so, that's that.

- - - Updated - - -

This has nothing to do with what I like or don't like. I have had statistics at the Ph.D. level.

Then why are you making elementary mistakes?
 
ii) It implies that Whites benefitted overall from enslavement of and racism against Blacks, which is patent nonsense. Slavery in America has made everyone alive today worse off than they would have been were there no slavery.

This is simply untrue. America went from a backwater collection of colonies to an economic powerhouse during the Industrial Revolution because of slavery. Without slavery, those cotton plantations would not have existed. Without King Cotton (and his little sister tobacco, and their good friend sugar), the USA would never have risen to become a major player in the import/export world. And slavery was essential to the profitable large-scale farming of all three.

Even before the rise of cotton, slavery made the Americas a profitable trade destination, via the Trade Triangle: Slaves from Africa were shipped to the Americas and sold, then sugar (farmed by plantation slaves) was purchased and shipped to New England, where it in turn was sold and rum (and other goods) shipped from New England to Europe. Had there been no slavery, there would have been no profit in trading with the New World, and thus no American exports to Europe.

Read up on the history of slavery and its impact on the global economy:

How Slavery Helped Build a World Economy (National Geographic)

Was slavery the engine of American economic growth? (Gilder Lehman institute of American History)

and last but not least:

How Does Slavery Benefit White People Today?

BS - England became an industrial powerhouse before the US - it was the birth of the industrial revolution, and they abolished slavery much sooner. Slavery holds you back by reducing capital investment as the slave labor gives you little incentive to increase productivity. Furthermore, there is no human capital investment - investment in increasing the capabilities of the humans themselves, such as through education and training, which was largely denied to the slaves.
 
This is simply untrue. America went from a backwater collection of colonies to an economic powerhouse during the Industrial Revolution because of slavery. Without slavery, those cotton plantations would not have existed. Without King Cotton (and his little sister tobacco, and their good friend sugar), the USA would never have risen to become a major player in the import/export world. And slavery was essential to the profitable large-scale farming of all three.

Even before the rise of cotton, slavery made the Americas a profitable trade destination, via the Trade Triangle: Slaves from Africa were shipped to the Americas and sold, then sugar (farmed by plantation slaves) was purchased and shipped to New England, where it in turn was sold and rum (and other goods) shipped from New England to Europe. Had there been no slavery, there would have been no profit in trading with the New World, and thus no American exports to Europe.

Read up on the history of slavery and its impact on the global economy:

How Slavery Helped Build a World Economy (National Geographic)

Was slavery the engine of American economic growth? (Gilder Lehman institute of American History)

and last but not least:

How Does Slavery Benefit White People Today?

BS - England became an industrial powerhouse before the US - it was the birth of the industrial revolution, and they abolished slavery much sooner.
England made most of its wealth through the exploitation of cheap labor and severely lopsided trade policies with its various colonies. Though not exactly slavery, the net effect is the concentration of England's poverty abroad and the concentration of its wealth domestically. This is similar to the U.S. practice of concentrating its economic woes in the laps of its slaves and southern underclass while concentrating its wealth in the hands of the slaver/landowner class.
 
 Arab slave trade
 Slavery in contemporary Africa
 Slavery in Africa

If slavery guaranteed wealth and power, Africa would be the economic powerhouse of the world.

Nobody said it "gauranteed" anything. The reality is that the institution of slavery contributed strongly to America's economic growth until the country (grudgingly, and with great difficulty) abolished it, at which point it had already begun to outlive its economic benefit. This is not the case in all institutions of slavery, and probably never will be again.
 
This is simply untrue. America went from a backwater collection of colonies to an economic powerhouse during the Industrial Revolution because of slavery. Without slavery, those cotton plantations would not have existed.

They ought never to have existed. Any industry that is profitable only because slaves produce the product ought never have existed. If cotton were uneconomic without slave labour, then it was a terrible product and an immoral waste of resources.

Without King Cotton (and his little sister tobacco, and their good friend sugar), the USA would never have risen to become a major player in the import/export world. And slavery was essential to the profitable large-scale farming of all three.

If slavery were essential to the profits of these industries, then these industries were a gross misdirection of human capital and a grossly immoral use of human capital.

Even before the rise of cotton, slavery made the Americas a profitable trade destination, via the Trade Triangle: Slaves from Africa were shipped to the Americas and sold, then sugar (farmed by plantation slaves) was purchased and shipped to New England, where it in turn was sold and rum (and other goods) shipped from New England to Europe. Had there been no slavery, there would have been no profit in trading with the New World, and thus no American exports to Europe.

Had there been no slavery anywhere in the world, goods would be priced at their true cost. Goods priced at their true cost, even if there are fewer of them, are better for the world than goods subsidised by a grossly immoral practice.

But even though a select, specialised group may have benefitted from slavery (slave-owning Whites in the South), that does not mean America benefitted overall. Nor do we have a counterfactual to compare against: if Americans had never owned slaves, we don't know what the situation and productivity of cotton and tobacco would have been. Even slaves had a cost (feeding them and quartering them and preventing their escape), and it is possible that the production of cotton could have increased overall if a different model had been chosen.



Your last link shows the exact opposite is true of what you believe
\
=diversityinc]
If you go back to people being created equally, it is just math that a percentage of our country’s greatest minds were eliminated from the competition simply by fact of skin color,

No: every time you eliminate someone from a competition merely because of skin colour, and that person would have been the best candidate, you have made the world poorer. This cannot seriously be denied.

Every single Black person who, but for racism, would have succeeded, or would have been able to contribute more to society than they ended up doing, has made America poorer. How can you believe otherwise?

And no: the article does not in any way address how White people 'directly' benefit from slavery today. They don't. They're worse off, both economically and morally. Everyone is.
 
This is simply untrue. America went from a backwater collection of colonies to an economic powerhouse during the Industrial Revolution because of slavery. Without slavery, those cotton plantations would not have existed. Without King Cotton (and his little sister tobacco, and their good friend sugar), the USA would never have risen to become a major player in the import/export world. And slavery was essential to the profitable large-scale farming of all three.

Even before the rise of cotton, slavery made the Americas a profitable trade destination, via the Trade Triangle: Slaves from Africa were shipped to the Americas and sold, then sugar (farmed by plantation slaves) was purchased and shipped to New England, where it in turn was sold and rum (and other goods) shipped from New England to Europe. Had there been no slavery, there would have been no profit in trading with the New World, and thus no American exports to Europe.

Read up on the history of slavery and its impact on the global economy:

How Slavery Helped Build a World Economy (National Geographic)

Was slavery the engine of American economic growth? (Gilder Lehman institute of American History)

and last but not least:

How Does Slavery Benefit White People Today?

BS - England became an industrial powerhouse before the US - it was the birth of the industrial revolution, and they abolished slavery much sooner.

Because they had no NEED for slavery. Cotton, sugar, and tobacco don't grow in the U.K., thus no plantations & no need for slave labor. The fact that England became an economic powerhouse first is part of the reason that trade to the Americas thrived with slavery.

Slavery holds you back by reducing capital investment as the slave labor gives you little incentive to increase productivity. Furthermore, there is no human capital investment - investment in increasing the capabilities of the humans themselves, such as through education and training, which was largely denied to the slaves.
What fun! One person, armed with nothing but his own opinions, magically overturns years of research by every fucking historian on the planet.

You didn't bother to read those links, did you? Fear of learning is a debilitating thing.
 
Your last link shows the exact opposite is true of what you believe
\
=diversityinc]
If you go back to people being created equally, it is just math that a percentage of our country’s greatest minds were eliminated from the competition simply by fact of skin color,

No: every time you eliminate someone from a competition merely because of skin colour, and that person would have been the best candidate, you have made the world poorer. This cannot seriously be denied.

You have also made the majority group wealthier, at the expense of those shut out. Basic math tells us that if there are 100 people competing for a share of a pie, and you exclude 18 of them from the competition, those remaining have a better shot at a larger slice.
 
To the OP I would ask:

If what you say is true, what is the predominant factor in blacks committing more crimes?
 
Yes, Axulus, we understand that you're racist. It's ok, just stay away from where the people live and you should be fine.

He presented his argument, with data that can be examined and challenged, and instead of making some sort of counter argument (which I presume wouldn't be hard to do), you just call him a racist. I'm afraid he is the one who looks more reasonable here.

For example, one could point out that here

Now, how many more blacks die at the hands of police? About 3 per million individuals per year for blacks and 1 per million per year for whites, a 3 to 1 rate compared to whites. Now remember that violence crime arrest ratio? Matches almost exactly.

Data for deaths at hands of police by race here:

http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-black-americans-killed-police/19423

the data being relied upon is nowhere near complete and relies on non-required self-reporting from law enforcement agencies.

BJS: Arrest Related Deaths

Participation in the Arrest-Related Deaths program is voluntary, meaning neither law enforcement agencies nor states are required to submit ARD data to BJS.

So while what is being reported may be correct (and I'm not saying it is correct) based on the facts at hand but the facts on hand are hardly anywhere near complete.

Also, on page 15 of the ARD report there's Appendix Table 2 which identifies 15 states that did not report anything for a number of years during the reporting period.

If the ARD is comparable to the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports program, which it seems to be since the number of annual deaths reported by the ARD and the UCR are almost identical:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...78ee00-2a26-11e4-8593-da634b334390_story.html

In November 2011, the Bureau of Justice Statistics published figures on “arrest-related deaths” from 2003 through 2009, which did include information on the races and ethnicities of the deceased, as well as broad categorization of circumstances surrounding each case. The annual average of homicides attributable to police, 422, is consistent with the FBI reports.

Then we have a case of only 4.4% (750 out of 17,000) of law enforcement agencies even bothering to report.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/08/14/police-killings-data/14060357/

About 750 agencies contribute to the database, a fraction of the 17,000 law enforcement agencies in the United States.

So how any meaningful conclusions can be drawn from this pittance of data is beyond me.
 
Back
Top Bottom