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The Race For 2024

From the Jan. 19 issue of The Week, re: the Jan. 6 riot: "More than a third of GOP voters -- and 30 percent of independents -- believe the FBI definitely or probably instigated the attack."
This -- despite the fact that everyone has seen the video of Trump giving the mob its marching orders -- to go the Capitol, reminding them they had to 'fight like hell', and promising them he'd be with them. I'm not surprised at the figure for the GOP. It's the figure for "independents" that's devastating. This era of American history, which, who knows, is a swing-about from functional democracy, is all about the power of lies.
What exactly is the strategy for confronting this lie, if we've all seen the video, heard Trump's words, read his Mike Pence tweet, and seen the result? How do you make a case to a deluded electorate?
I'll accept the FBI theory, by the way, if we're talking about a Fat Bigoted Insurrectionist.
 
ideologyhunter said:
From the Jan. 19 issue of The Week, re: the Jan. 6 riot: "More than a third of GOP voters -- and 30 percent of independents -- believe the FBI definitely or probably instigated the attack."
This -- despite the fact that everyone has seen the video of Trump giving the mob its marching orders -- to go the Capitol, reminding them they had to 'fight like hell', and promising them he'd be with them. I'm not surprised at the figure for the GOP. It's the figure for "independents" that's devastating. This era of American history, which, who knows, is a swing-about from functional democracy, is all about the power of lies.
What exactly is the strategy for confronting this lie, if we've all seen the video, heard Trump's words, read his Mike Pence tweet, and seen the result? How do you make a case to a deluded electorate?
I'll accept the FBI theory, by the way, if we're talking about a Fat Bigoted Insurrectionist.
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I got a feeling the FBI won't be making this mistake again.
 
unapologetic said:
Loren Pechtel said:
lpetrich said:
Nevada's caucuses are two weeks from now, and South Carolina's primary four weeks from now.
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Except we just switched to primaries instead. The Clown didn't get the word, he's not even on the ballot.
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That's great. How many convention delegates does Nevada count for?
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A negligible amount. It seems very likely Trump will get the number of delegates for the nomination.

He is threatening people that support Haley though, so I can't tell if that means he is a little bit worried or insulted that not every one is licking his ass.
 
www.politico.com

‘Not a good night for Donald Trump’: Why Never Trumpers think he’s really losing

He has defied political gravity before. But voting data out of Iowa and New Hampshire are giving his GOP detractors cause for optimism.
www.politico.com www.politico.com
Exit polls also showed four out of 10 people who cast a ballot for Haley in New Hampshire said they did so out of distaste for Trump. And 94 percent of Haley’s voters said they would be dissatisfied if Trump won the nomination.
Fully half of Iowa’s Republican caucusgoers said they did not identify as part of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement. Even more — 63 percent — said the same in New Hampshire.
That significant chunks of voters from two disparate (though still overwhelmingly white) electorates showed similar resistance to Trump is encouraging to both Sykes and Madrid.
“Looking at these numbers and Trump’s general approval [ratings] amongst Republicans and also election results from the last three elections, they are all pointing in a direction of getting worse for Trump — not better,” Madrid said.
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ZiprHead said:
www.politico.com

‘Not a good night for Donald Trump’: Why Never Trumpers think he’s really losing

He has defied political gravity before. But voting data out of Iowa and New Hampshire are giving his GOP detractors cause for optimism.
www.politico.com www.politico.com
Exit polls also showed four out of 10 people who cast a ballot for Haley in New Hampshire said they did so out of distaste for Trump. And 94 percent of Haley’s voters said they would be dissatisfied if Trump won the nomination.
Fully half of Iowa’s Republican caucusgoers said they did not identify as part of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement. Even more — 63 percent — said the same in New Hampshire.
That significant chunks of voters from two disparate (though still overwhelmingly white) electorates showed similar resistance to Trump is encouraging to both Sykes and Madrid.
“Looking at these numbers and Trump’s general approval [ratings] amongst Republicans and also election results from the last three elections, they are all pointing in a direction of getting worse for Trump — not better,” Madrid said.
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Luckily, Trump just told the other half of his electorate that he doesn’t want their votes come the general election.
 
Nikki Haley got over 40% of the vote in New Hampshire. I might have thought rational Republicans would be pleased with this result: There IS an alternative to the Orange Psychopath. I guess what I overlooked is that New Hampshire is atypical: its GOP has a high portion of rational thinkers compared with Deplorables in Red states. If over half of even Granite State Republican support Trump, rational Republicans, if any, may as well just jump off a cliff.

Betfair now shows Haley in a distant 2nd place with less than a 4% chance to win the GOP nomination. Guess who is 3rd most likely to get the GOP nomination, though much much farther back. Ivanka Trump !! !!! No peeking please! I want to see who can guess it!

Trump is 45.7% to win the November election; Biden is 34.4%. Those numbers add to only 80%. Perhaps punters think one of the front-runners is likely to suffer illness, injury or major gaffe, with a "dark horse" (VP nominee?) then stepping in by November.
 
Ron DeSantis Says 1 Thing Is To Blame For His Humiliating Campaign Defeat
In his first interview since dropping out of the presidential race, DeSantis told Blaze TV’s Steve Deace that the blame is on Iowa caucusgoers who rallied behind front-runner Donald Trump even though many didn’t like him.

“They did not want to see Trump nominated again, but they had basically been told that it was inevitable, that it was over,” DeSantis told Deace on Tuesday. DeSantis, who lost to Trump in the Iowa caucuses earlier this month, added that those voters were “checked out” and had “just totally dropped out of the process.”
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Even though RdS criticized DT for denying election results,
“He has my endorsement because we can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear, a repackaged form of warmed-over corporatism that [former South Carolina Gov.] Nikki Haley represents,” DeSantis said in a video announcement.
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What does he consider "corporatism"???
 
Trump mocks Nikki Haley’s birth name. Haley responds | AP News - 6:51 AM PST, January 20, 2024
In a post on his Truth Social account, Trump repeatedly referred to Haley, the daughter of immigrants from India, as “Nimbra.” Haley, the former South Carolina governor, was born in Bamberg, South Carolina, as Nimarata Nikki Randhawa. She has always gone by her middle name, “Nikki.” She took the surname “Haley” upon her marriage in 1996.

Trump, himself the son, grandson and twice the husband of immigrants, called Haley “Nimbra” three times in the post and said she “doesn’t have what it takes.”
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Truth Details | Truth Social - Jan 24, 2024, 5:49 PM
Nikki “Birdbrain” Haley is very bad for the Republican Party and, indeed, our Country. Her False Statements, Derogatory Comments, and Humiliating Public Loss, is demeaning to True American Patriots. Her anger should be aimed at her Third Rate Political Consultants and, more importantly, Crooked Joe Biden and those that are destroying our Country - NOT THE PEOPLE WHO WILL SAVE IT. I knew Nikki well, she was average at best, is not the one to take on World Leaders, and she never did. That was up to me, and that is why they respected the United States. When I ran for Office and won, I noticed that the losing Candidate’s “Donors” would immediately come to me, and want to “help out.” This is standard in Politics, but no longer with me. Anybody that makes a “Contribution” to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp. We don’t want them, and will not accept them, because we Put America First, and ALWAYS WILL!
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Birdbrain?

Third-rate political consultants?

Banning anyone who supports her campaign?

Gov. Nikki Haley says Donald Trump’s behavior ‘unacceptable’ | Palmetto Politics | postandcourier.com - Feb 27, 2016
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley described as “scary” the prospect of a Donald Trump nomination as the Republican candidate for president. ...

“There are two presidential candidates right now undergoing legal issues: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. There are two presidential candidates right now not disclosing information: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump,” Haley said.

“We’re seeing a lot of things with Donald Trump with no answers.”

...
“Donald Trump is everything we teach our kids not to do in kindergarten,” Haley said. “We have seen behavior over and over again that is just unacceptable.”
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She was right that time, and she should not have toadied up to him.
 
Republican National Committee reportedly scraps naming Trump the "presumptive" nominee after he panned the idea - CBS News
The Republican National Committee has pulled a resolution to consider declaring Donald Trump the party's "presumptive 2024 nominee" before he formally clinches the requisite number of delegates, a person familiar with the decision said Thursday.

...
"Donald Trump's threats highlight the stark choice in this election: personal vendettas or real conservative leadership," said Haley spokesperson AnnMarie Graham-Barnes. "Trump's scheme blew up in his face. The contributions to the Haley campaign are pouring in — proof that people are sick of the drama and are rallying behind Nikki's vision for a strong and proud America."
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lpetrich said:
“He has my endorsement because we can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear, a repackaged form of warmed-over corporatism that [former South Carolina Gov.] Nikki Haley represents,” DeSantis said in a video announcement.
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What does he consider "corporatism"???
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One might hope that his is a highly principled position: He won't support "woke" corporations like Disney.

But it isn't sensical to put "principles" and "Republicans" in the same sentence. In this context "corporatism" almost certainly refers to getting campaign donations from corporations that do not donate to Ron DeSantis.
 
lpetrich said:
She was right that time, and she should not have toadied up to him.
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That's not so mysterious a behavior. She's actually toadying up to the idiots that support him. Those idiots now control the GOP. Every GOP candidate takes a big chance by not feigning loyalty to the idiot GOP base. Haley is going to lose nationally but what is she going to do then? Is she going to go full Liz Cheney? She should, but likely won't. She and lots of republican are walking that razor edge, give Orange worshippers the nod or die a political death.
 
Swammerdami said:
Nikki Haley got over 40% of the vote in New Hampshire. I might have thought rational Republicans would be pleased with this result: There IS an alternative to the Orange Psychopath. I guess what I overlooked is that New Hampshire is atypical: its GOP has a high portion of rational thinkers compared with Deplorables in Red states. If over half of even Granite State Republican support Trump, rational Republicans, if any, may as well just jump off a cliff.
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Democrats are allowed to vote in NH republican primary, no?
 
On YouTube I see more than one "expert" political strategist who thinks that the Democrats will sweep in November with many Republicans staying home (or voting for Biden). Disgust with Trump is huge, as exit interviews in New Hampshire show. Things figure to get even worse for Trump (so better for humanity) as he loses more court cases, and as his dementia worsens.

That is very very sweet news! ... If true.

I'll believe it when I see this optimism reflected in prediction markets, which right now stand at:
Polymarket (with about $22 million total bet) shows Trump 55%, Biden 39%.
Betfair (with $11 million bet) shows Trump 46%, Biden 34%.
 
Swammerdami said:
On YouTube I see more than one "expert" political strategist who thinks that the Democrats will sweep in November with many Republicans staying home (or voting for Biden). Disgust with Trump is huge, as exit interviews in New Hampshire show. Things figure to get even worse for Trump (so better for humanity) as he loses more court cases, and as his dementia worsens.

That is very very sweet news! ... If true.

I'll believe it when I see this optimism reflected in prediction markets, which right now stand at:
Polymarket (with about $22 million total bet) shows Trump 55%, Biden 39%.
Betfair (with $11 million bet) shows Trump 46%, Biden 34%.
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It's true. There's a lot of Republicans who won't vote for Trump. This has to be the end of MAGA politics when they get beat again.

I can't believe the party hasn't walked away from it already.
 
JohnG said:
I can't believe the party hasn't walked away from it already.
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Really?
Isn’t it obvious that they no longer care about winning a free and fair election? They care about power. Period. If they can get elected, great. If not, they know what to do now that Cheato has shown them The Way.
I doubt that one single Republican will be defeated this fall and not go into Kari Lake/DJT denial. It remains to be seen how overtly they will encourage violence, or how long it will take for the dust to settle if the GQP suffers a rout.
 
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