The Race For 2024

[ZiprHead]

Let me know when you hear about this poll on the MSM.

 

[JohnG]

I can't believe the party hasn't walked away from it already.

Really?
Isn’t it obvious that they no longer care about winning a free and fair election? They care about power. Period. If they can get elected, great. If not, they know what to do now that Cheato has shown them The Way.
I doubt that one single Republican will be defeated this fall and not go into Kari Lake/DJT denial. It remains to be seen how overtly they will encourage violence, or how long it will take for the dust to settle if the GQP suffers a rout.

I don't disagree with any of that, but I don't think extremism is going to win elections, and they need to gain power before they can dismantle any checks and balances.

They do have have the supreme court, which isn't nothing.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I know it's early and polls don't mean a thing anymore, but it's still at little satisfying to see Biden starting to be ahead of Trump in a poll.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...ads-trump-growing-gender-gap-quinnipiac-poll/

President Biden has opened up a 6 point lead in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up with former President Trump, new polling shows, amid signs of a growing gender gap in support for the two party front-runners.

A new Quinnipiac University national poll found Biden with 50 percent support among registered voters, ahead of Trump’s 44 percent.

Biden also scored majority support among independents in the latest findings, with 52 percent support to Trump’s 40 percent.

The poll additionally found a growing gender gap when it comes to support for the current and former presidents as they each run for a second White House term.

Fifty-eight percent of women say they support Biden, up from 53 percent in December.

At the same time, 53 percent of men say they support Trump, “largely unchanged” from 51 percent in December.

Considering that Trump is becoming more unhinged by the day, maybe more people are starting to realize the importance of voting for Biden, even if they don't like him and don't agree with many of his policies. If Liz Cheney can endorse Biden, I would hope that others will come to realize that if Trump is elected, either we will experience total chaos along with a threat to democracy. Hope things keep going in this direction. It looks as if women will decide the election if things keep going in this direction.

Hopefully as more people start paying attention to politics, this trend will continue.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Dobbs isn't going anywhere, and that is going to hang around the neck of any Republican candidate.

The economy is warming up and appears to be headed in a direction that'll suck for the partisan GOP in the Fall. While the alt-right continuously change their underwear due to their rage on immigration, "the people" vote the economy (and women are going to vote on Dobbs as well).

Won't Get Fooled Again? Trump didn't actually accomplish much as President, despite grandiose claims.

What America needed was the death of the Teabagger movement in 2016. Instead, we got a guy who played an absurd amount of golf, bragging on a bromance with the North Korean leader, pushed America away from its allies, pursued a foreign policy setup beneficial to Putin, and anointed SCOTUS justices that killed Roe v Wade. If Trump were to lose big like he should have in 2024, it sadly won't be as effective as if it had happened in 2016.

 

[Elixir]

They do have have the supreme court, which isn't nothing.

Yup. And they have shown their willingness to take up every goddam jaywalking case that might dismantle another democratic norm.

 

[ZiprHead]

Taylor Swift talking politics with her parents.

 

[ZiprHead]

Moodys Analytics predicts Biden will win by about the same margin as he did in 2020, based on a state by state analysis. He would lose Arizona over illegal immigration but flip N Carolina. This is not a poll but a model.

https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=95674FFE-7734-4401-877A-FE331AECD442&app=download

 

[JohnG]

40% of Republican Haley voters in Iowa say they will vote Biden before Trump

 

[Elixir]

40% of Republican Haley voters in Iowa say they will vote Biden before Trump

So that's ... what? 40% of the 20% who voted for Haley out of the 27% of the electorate who are Republicans ... so around a quarter of one percent of the electorate. Probably not enough to make any difference in any outcomes, but you never know.

 

[Shadowy Man]

40% of Republican Haley voters in Iowa say they will vote Biden before Trump

So that's ... what? 40% of the 20% who voted for Haley out of the 27% of the electorate who are Republicans ... so around a quarter of one percent of the electorate. Probably not enough to make any difference in any outcomes, but you never know.

Much of the electorate doesn’t vote so it’s likely a larger fraction of votes in the general. And often all it takes is a percent or so to swing a whole state in the electoral college.

 

[Derec]

I know it's early and polls don't mean a thing anymore, but it's still at little satisfying to see Biden starting to be ahead of Trump in a poll.

That is not true. Polls still have meaning, but they need to be examined critically, just like everything else.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...ads-trump-growing-gender-gap-quinnipiac-poll/[/quote]

President Biden has opened up a 6 point lead in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up with former President Trump, new polling shows, amid signs of a growing gender gap in support for the two party front-runners.
A new Quinnipiac University national poll found Biden with 50 percent support among registered voters, ahead of Trump’s 44 percent.

This is indeed encouraging news for Biden. Most other nationwide polls have Trump leading or Biden with a slight lead as you can see on RealClearPolitics.
More important than the absolute number is that the same poll shows improvement for Biden - in December it was 47-46.
There is one thing concerning here, something The Hill did not mention. The headline 50-44 number is a head-to-head matchup. Quinnipiac
also asked the same question with minor candidates (Kennedy, Stein, West) included. The poll also finds that Haley would do much better than Trump against Biden.

In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 39 percent support, Trump receives 37 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 14 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support.

The 6 point lead shrinks to 2 points. This is concerning because US elections are state-by-state and GOP has a structural advantage in the electoral college. Hillary had a 2.1% popular vote advantage in 2016 and we all remember how that turned out. Not that a Dem can't win the electoral vote with 2% lead in popular vote, but it becomes a tossup - a matter of a few thousand votes in key states.

This segues nicely with another poll recently released by Morning Consult and Bloomberg. It's a large poll, with a sample size of nearly 5000. That is necessary because it wasn't a nationwide poll, but a poll of swing states. And Biden trailed Trump in every of the swing states they polled. That is concerning.

 

[Derec]

Won't Get Fooled Again? Trump didn't actually accomplish much as President, despite grandiose claims.

Trump was misunderestimated in 2016, including the Hillary campaign. He may well win again.
There are certainly some obstacles for Biden.

- The mass migration crisis is real and people are rightly concerned. Biden administration is responsible - remember the 2020 election debates where the Dems on stage were trying to outdo each other in how friendly to mass migrants they wanted to be? Well, this is the fruits of that. Not that House Republicans are not being absolute twits about it with this new bill, but still.

- The regional war may still escalate by the Fall. Biden's dithering re Houthis and Iranian militias that attack our bases makes the risk of a regional war higher compared to what he should do - a strong response on both these fronts.

- The Muslims in Michigan are angry that Biden is backing Israel after Hamas slaughtered >1000 Israelis and are saying they won't vote for him. I say, good riddance, go to Gaza and vote for Hamas instead and see how you like it there. But Michigan was close last time around.

- 9 months is an eternity when it comes to economy. It is difficult to predict how well the economy will chug along come November.

- the specter of Biden's age and health.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I know it's early and polls don't mean a thing anymore, but it's still at little satisfying to see Biden starting to be ahead of Trump in a poll.

That is not true. Polls still have meaning, but they need to be examined critically, just like everything else.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...ads-trump-growing-gender-gap-quinnipiac-poll/

This is indeed encouraging news for Biden. Most other nationwide polls have Trump leading or Biden with a slight lead as you can see on RealClearPolitics. More important than the absolute number is that the same poll shows improvement for Biden - in December it was 47-46. There is one thing concerning here, something The Hill did not mention. The headline 50-44 number is a head-to-head matchup. Quinnipiac also asked the same question with minor candidates (Kennedy, Stein, West) included. The poll also finds that Haley would do much better than Trump against Biden.

In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 39 percent support, Trump receives 37 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 14 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support.

The 6 point lead shrinks to 2 points. This is concerning because US elections are state-by-state and GOP has a structural advantage in the electoral college. Hillary had a 2.1% popular vote advantage in 2016 and we all remember how that turned out. Not that a Dem can't win the electoral vote with 2% lead in popular vote, but it becomes a tossup - a matter of a few thousand votes in key states.

This segues nicely with another poll recently released by Morning Consult and Bloomberg. It's a large poll, with a sample size of nearly 5000. That is necessary because it wasn't a nationwide poll, but a poll of swing states. And Biden trailed Trump in every of the swing states they polled. That is concerning.

Consumer sentiment is all that really matters. Trump v Biden v RFK Jr is going to lag Consumer Sentiment. If Consumer Sentiment continues increasing, the polls will shift in Biden's favor.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Won't Get Fooled Again? Trump didn't actually accomplish much as President, despite grandiose claims.

Trump was misunderestimated in 2016, including the Hillary campaign. He may well win again.
There are certainly some obstacles for Biden.

- The mass migration crisis is real and people are rightly concerned. Biden administration is responsible - remember the 2020 election debates where the Dems on stage were trying to outdo each other in how friendly to mass migrants they wanted to be? Well, this is the fruits of that. Not that House Republicans are not being absolute twits about it with this new bill, but still.

Repeat after me, the country doesn't care about the migration problem. It isn't impacting their daily life, other than those that let it live in their mind's rent free. Economy, economy, economy.

- The regional war may still escalate by the Fall. Biden's dithering re Houthis and Iranian militias that attack our bases makes the risk of a regional war higher compared to what he should do - a strong response on both these fronts.

This is a wild card that is unpredictable. But generally, even if stuff goes south, the President gets the backing of the people when it comes to the military, at least initially.

- The Muslims in Michigan are angry that Biden is backing Israel after Hamas slaughtered >1000 Israelis and are saying they won't vote for him. I say, good riddance, go to Gaza and vote for Hamas instead and see how you like it there. But Michigan was close last time around.

Dobbs, Dobbs, Dobbs. Many more women than Muslims in Michigan. If Muslims want to stay home, they are free to do so. If they think Biden is "just as bad" as Trump and the GOP, they are suffering from memory loss of the days of "Barrack Hussein Obama".

- 9 months is an eternity when it comes to economy. It is difficult to predict how well the economy will chug along come November.

The economy is trending very well. Even if it tilts to a recession by the election, it won't be in the pocket book yet.

- the specter of Biden's age and health.

Relative to Trump? If Haley was running as the GOP nominee, Biden's age can become a thing, but against Trump? No fucking way.

 

[Shadowy Man]

With Biden and the Dems willing to compromise on border security but the Republicans shutting down their own negotiations they are going to own the migration problem now.

 

[Elixir]

40% of Republican Haley voters in Iowa say they will vote Biden before Trump

So that's ... what? 40% of the 20% who voted for Haley out of the 27% of the electorate who are Republicans ... so around a quarter of one percent of the electorate. Probably not enough to make any difference in any outcomes, but you never know.

Much of the electorate doesn’t vote so it’s likely a larger fraction of votes in the general. And often all it takes is a percent or so to swing a whole state in the electoral college.

Yabut - Iowa. If it comes in within a half point of a tie, it won’t matter - that would portend Republicans getting routed badly.

 

[ZiprHead]

- The Muslims in Michigan are angry that Biden is backing Israel after Hamas slaughtered >1000 Israelis and are saying they won't vote for him. I say, good riddance, go to Gaza and vote for Hamas instead and see how you like it there. But Michigan was close last time around.

So they're going to vote for the Muslim ban guy???

 

[TomC]

So they're going to vote for the Muslim ban guy???

This is the USA.
Muslims are free to be stupid, just like everyone else.
Tom

 

[Shadowy Man]

- The Muslims in Michigan are angry that Biden is backing Israel after Hamas slaughtered >1000 Israelis and are saying they won't vote for him. I say, good riddance, go to Gaza and vote for Hamas instead and see how you like it there. But Michigan was close last time around.

So they're going to vote for the Muslim ban guy???

I thought Jared Kushner already solved Mideast peace? I guess Biden f’ed that up so bringing Trump back should fix it again.

 

[Derec]

Repeat after me, the country doesn't care about the migration problem. It isn't impacting their daily life, other than those that let it live in their mind's rent free. Economy, economy, economy.

Economy is certainly an important issue, but you are grossly overstating the case when you suggest that it is the only issue that matters to voters. Immigration crisis and the border chaos are also important issues for many voters.

This is a wild card that is unpredictable. But generally, even if stuff goes south, the President gets the backing of the people when it comes to the military, at least initially.

The Muslims/Arabs esp. in places like Michigan and their far left useful idiots are the problem here.

Dobbs, Dobbs, Dobbs. Many more women than Muslims in Michigan. If Muslims want to stay home, they are free to do so. If they think Biden is "just as bad" as Trump and the GOP, they are suffering from memory loss of the days of "Barrack Hussein Obama".

Dobbs is a major issue in Biden's favor, true. I am also not saying that he will lose Michigan, just that he is facing some headwinds.

The economy is trending very well. Even if it tilts to a recession by the election, it won't be in the pocket book yet.

We will see how things shake out. I was just pointing out that a good economy in January does not necessarily mean a good Economy in August or September.

Relative to Trump? If Haley was running as the GOP nominee, Biden's age can become a thing, but against Trump? No fucking way.

Biden is at an elevated risk of some health issue between now and November due to his age. So is Trump, of course. I agree that they are both too old.