The Race For 2024

[lpetrich]

Will Mavs Owner Miriam Adelson Spend Big on Trump Again? - "What does the eighth richest woman in the world want?"
She is the widow of casino magnate and hardline Israel supporter Sheldon Adelson.

“One can assume she’ll press for the unfinished items of Trump’s Israel agenda from last term,” New York’s Elizabeth Weil wrote. “Top of that list: Israel annexing the West Bank and the U.S. recognizing its sovereignty there.” That would mark a dramatic shift in America’s policy toward Israel—and would make ending Israel’s destructive military campaign in Gaza significantly harder. But Trump is advertising that he’s open for business, and he has never shown any interest in Palestinian rights; it’s fair to assume he would see supporting annexation of the West Bank as a small price to pay for millions in campaign contributions. Last month, moreover, Trump promised donors that he would set back the pro-Palestinian movement by “25 or 30 years.” One easy way to do that: Allow Israel to annex the West Bank.

 

[ZiprHead]

Trump’s economy vs. Biden’s — in 17 charts

“It’s the economy, stupid!” is the mantra that’s been uttered every presidential campaign season since James Carville coined it in 1992. What’s unique this year is that both President Biden and former president Donald Trump have clear economic records now, and they each claim to have the superior one — and even, in Trump’s case, the best in history.

The truth is that the U.S. economy has had spectacular moments — and real train wrecks — under both men. Trump inherited a lukewarm economy that he pumped up with massive tax cuts and extra government spending. The result was a hot growth spurt and a lot of new jobs, until the pandemic hit and 23 million people were suddenly out of work. Biden inherited a nation still living through the dark days of covid-19. He injected a large dose of government spending and investment and spurred a rapid, widespread rebound. The economy grew fast, added more than 15 million jobs and even saw a renaissance in manufacturing and a surge in start-ups. But the pandemic’s hangover effects also included the worst inflation in 40 years and this still smarts.

Below are 17 charts that show the many facets of the Trump and Biden economies (with the caveat that presidents only have a limited influence). Judging by the data alone, Biden produced better results, but deep psychological impact of inflation has led most voters to say they trust Trump over Biden on the economy.

 

[ZiprHead]

South, Mountain West see manufacturing boom under Biden

A manufacturing boom has swept across the country in President Biden's 2½ years in office, with the South and Mountain West — including several red states — having especially strong growth, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Why it matters: The U.S. economy has added some 800,000 manufacturing jobs nationwide, a figure Biden hopes will boost his claim to have delivered on his promise to be a president — and create jobs — for all Americans.

Biden's Economy Is Superior in Just About Every Way, by Froma Harrop

In overseeing the American economy, President Joe Biden has shown himself to be an amazing manager. It's all there in the numbers, especially when placed next to those of his predecessor.

www.creators.com

 

[Politesse]

Brandon has Covid

President Joe Biden posted a bizarre tweet saying 'I'm sick' shortly after testing positive for COVID, leaving America guessing as to the seriousness of his condition.
Three minutes later, he added: 'of Elon Musk and his rich buddies trying to buy this election.' He then asked for money to help 'defeat Trump'. The confusing posts came as Biden, 81, was forced to cancel a speech in Las Vegas while trying to fight back against widespread calls for him to drop out of the race.

Daily Mail

The old man is too frail to run.

Ah. So if someone contracts Covid, you'd say that indicates dangerous frailty?

 

[TSwizzle]

Brandon has Covid

President Joe Biden posted a bizarre tweet saying 'I'm sick' shortly after testing positive for COVID, leaving America guessing as to the seriousness of his condition.
Three minutes later, he added: 'of Elon Musk and his rich buddies trying to buy this election.' He then asked for money to help 'defeat Trump'. The confusing posts came as Biden, 81, was forced to cancel a speech in Las Vegas while trying to fight back against widespread calls for him to drop out of the race.

Daily Mail

The old man is too frail to run.

Ah. So if someone contracts Covid, you'd say that indicates dangerous frailty?

Not “someone” it is an octogenarian who is already showing signs of frailty.

Also, I seem to remember Brandon lecturing us about how if you got vaccinated you couldn’t catch covid.

 

[Elixir]

So if someone contracts Covid, you'd say that indicates dangerous frailty?

Not so much that.
Biden is decrepit.
Murka will NOT elect obviously decrepit, period. No matter how stellar the record, no matter how corrupt or stupid or ACTUALLY decrepit the opponent, as long as it can be hidden, like balding.
Such a shame.
I don’t think Murka will elect a “black woman” either, but it’s probably no less likely than electing decrepit.
We’re fucked.

 

[Politesse]

Also, I seem to remember Brandon lecturing us about how if you got vaccinated you couldn’t catch covid.

Do you, now? When was that, exactly?

 

[Elixir]

Also, I seem to remember Brandon lecturing us about how if you got vaccinated you couldn’t catch covid.

Do you, now? When was that, exactly?

He said “much less likely”. Never said “couldn’t” iirc.
And who on the right cares? They don’t believe information from the world’s foremost epidemiology experts; they think agent orange cures all.

 

[Swammerdami]

Does anyone else like looking at the horse race as viewed by betting markets?

The first number shown is probability of November victory as predicted by betting market just BEFORE the shooting incident; the second number is from several hours AFTER the incident; the third number is from 17 July 9PM Chicago Daylight Savings time (UTC-5). The fourth number is snapshot just now, 18 July 10:30 PM (UTC-5).
Probabilities of November victory as predicted by the Betfair betting market shortly BEFORE the shooting incident, followed by numbers several hours AFTER, followed by the latest numbers.

Betfair

Trump 61% --> 67½% --> 65½% --> 62%​

Harris 12% ---> 8% ----> 16½% --> 22%​

Biden 13½% --> 14% ---> 9½% --> 4%​

Polymarket

Trump 60% --> 70% --> 65% --> 63%​

Harris 12% ---> 6% --> 16% --> 23%​

Biden 19% --> 18% --> 13% --> 4½%​

Yesterday Polymarket showed about a 6% chance the WH will be won by a Democrat other than Biden or Harris. Now that's up to 10%, mostly "Other including Whitmer." Betfair is similar, with Whitmer nosing out Obama to be 3rd-most-likely nominee.

 

[Swammerdami]

I am NOT a political strategist. Is all this consternation GOOD for the Democrats? It puts a spotlight on their decision-making -- which is in sharp contrast to the Orange-shirt fascists' "Our way or the Highway." It lets people contemplate Kamala Harris BEFORE she is anointed.

Or is the alternate view correct? That the indecision reflects poorly on Democratic leadership? If this seond, more impatient view is correct, then SHAME on Biden and SHAME on Democratic Party "ladership", if any.

 

[Politesse]

Or is the alternate view correct? That the indecision reflects poorly on Democratic leadership?

Well, are we electing the president of the US, or the student body president? I suppose we'll find out in November.

 

[Derec]

and would make ending Israel’s destructive military campaign in Gaza significantly harder.

This choice of words shows Weil's bias. Another choice excerpt showing bias:

Trump delivered a few pieces of the plan while still in office: He moved the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a clear insult to the Palestinians, as they, too, consider Jerusalem their capital. At the ceremony celebrating the Embassy’s move, Adelson beamed from the front row. That same day, at the Gaza border, Israeli soldiers killed 58 Palestinians protesting the Embassy move.

What should be noted is that Trump did not invent this policy. He merely implemented what was US law since the 90s.
And while Jerusalem is the historic capital of Israel, it never was the capital of any Arab state, so there is clear historic precedent for one side only. Thirdly, the 58 Gazans killed at the border fence were not "protesting", but were trying to break through the border fence with force. The so-called "Great March of Return" was the dress rehearsal for 10/7. The BBC film "One Day in Gaza" shows that clearly, despite Beeb's anti-Israel bias.

Last month, moreover, Trump promised donors that he would set back the pro-Palestinian movement by “25 or 30 years.” One easy way to do that: Allow Israel to annex the West Bank.

As opposed to setting it back 57 years and allowing Jordan to annex it.

 

[Derec]

I am NOT a political strategist. Is all this consternation GOOD for the Democrats? It puts a spotlight on their decision-making -- which is in sharp contrast to the Orange-shirt fascists' "Our way or the Highway." It lets people contemplate Kamala Harris BEFORE she is anointed.

Contemplation is not enough. To make it something other than an anointing, there should have been some process like a "blitz primary" proposed by some.

Or is the alternate view correct? That the indecision reflects poorly on Democratic leadership? If this seond, more impatient view is correct, then SHAME on Biden and SHAME on Democratic Party "ladership", if any.

The longer this farce goes on, the more this view becomes correct. Especially since it closes the door to anything other than a coronation.

 

[Derec]

I've been sayin this for years, now even The Nation admits that the left wing of the Democratic Party have been dragging Biden to the left.

Why Are Bernie Sanders and the Squad Propping Up Joe Biden?

Joe Biden, fighting for his political life, has made a surprise move to the left wing of the party. Biden has always carefully calibrated his politics to be close to the median position of his party, which is why Axios described him as “long a centrist Democrat.” But now, under siege, Biden has become a born-again progressive—perhaps even a leftist.

The only mistake the author is making is that this shift is not new - it started as soon as he took office, with for example his $3.5T spending plan which was basically a slightly slimmed down version of the Bernie spending plan.

The leading instigators of this “left leap” are Senator Bernie Sanders, the Squad (led by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez), the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and the Congressional Black Caucus. These individuals and groups have become the unexpected fortress of Bidenism, shielding the president from attack even as centrists like Representative Angie Craig (D-MN) and Representative Adam Smith (D-WA) turn on him.

Hardly surprising. Bernie Sandersman the White and Alexandria Occasio Wormtongue want to protect King Theoden because they can control him.

What I wonder is why the Biden team thinks shifting ever further to the Left (he even embraced rent control for fuck's sake!) will help him in must-win swing states of the Midwest.

 

[Politesse]

I've been sayin this for years, now even The Nation admits that the left wing of the Democratic Party have been dragging Biden to the left.

Why Are Bernie Sanders and the Squad Propping Up Joe Biden?

Joe Biden, fighting for his political life, has made a surprise move to the left wing of the party. Biden has always carefully calibrated his politics to be close to the median position of his party, which is why Axios described him as “long a centrist Democrat.” But now, under siege, Biden has become a born-again progressive—perhaps even a leftist.

The only mistake the author is making is that this shift is not new - it started as soon as he took office, with for example his $3.5T spending plan which was basically a slightly slimmed down version of the Bernie spending plan.

The leading instigators of this “left leap” are Senator Bernie Sanders, the Squad (led by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez), the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and the Congressional Black Caucus. These individuals and groups have become the unexpected fortress of Bidenism, shielding the president from attack even as centrists like Representative Angie Craig (D-MN) and Representative Adam Smith (D-WA) turn on him.

Hardly surprising. Bernie Sandersman the White and Alexandria Occasio Wormtongue want to protect King Theoden because they can control him.

What I wonder is why the Biden team thinks shifting ever further to the Left (he even embraced rent control for fuck's sake!) will help him in must-win swing states of the Midwest.

Which of those policies do you consider "far left", and why?

 

[Politesse]

So is anyone getting actual campaign ads this election season? Like "elect this guy, not that guy, here's the reason why" type ads? I realize I'm a Californian and not a boomer so no one is all that interested in my vote anyhow, but I don't think I've seen a single campaign ad this year as such. Bids for money, yes, Bernie and Obama entreating me that democracy will fall if I don't send them a check tomorrow, yes. But nothing like "As president, I'll do such and such!" No billboards, no internet ads, nothing in the mail. I don't watch broadcast tv, so maybe that's my problem. But I feel like if I didn't already go out of my way to follow politics assiduously, I'd have no idea what either candidates' positions even were. Where is all of this fundraising money even going? Ohio, I guess.

 

[Derec]

Which of those policies do you consider "far left", and why?

Government dictating what prices private landlords may charge is a far left policy for example.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Not so much that.
Biden is decrepit.

Only right-wing extremist Magatard Trumpsuckers say Biden is decrepit.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

There are people who are dumb enough to post online opinions such as "next time don't miss". Libs of Tik Tok is exposing their comments. People are taking those comments and contacting employers. People are getting fired for advocating a particular crime that was recently attempted.

 

[Politesse]

Which of those policies do you consider "far left", and why?

Government dictating what prices private landlords may charge is a far left policy for example.

Capping rent control increases with the softest kid gloves imaginable does not equal "dictating what prices" companies may charge, it just places rational limits on how much rent can be increased from year to year. Even with that, it doesn't legally prevent such increases, it just says that large companies have to forfeit lucrative (essentially socialist) kickbacks from the government if they make them. They can gouge their tenants, or they can get free money from the government, they just annot do both at once. Opposing this, to you, is a "far left" measure that even a middle of the road Democrat could never support?

Are you saying that all moderates and conservatives actually want unaffordable rent, and to give away money to those who charge that rent? For housing to get more and more expensive, while wages stagnate? How is that a "conservative value" that even a moderate Democrat would embrace? You guys bitch and whine constantly about inflation, about how difficult life is getting in the middle of the country as the dollar supposedly loses strength, but you want even more of the average families' income to be taken up by rent, without receiving any more products or services for their sacrifice? What is remotely "moderate" about making it impossible to afford raising a family? More American families spend more than a third of their income on rent now than at any time in American history. You aren't taking things back to 1950 or 1960 or whenever "Great Again" was supposed to be, if your political goal is to accelerate this unprecedented and troubling form of grift that was not possible then.