The Race For 2024

[thebeave]

Wondering...
Has any previously elected president, when running again, ever selected a different VP from the one with whom he won previously?

Grover Cleveland is the only president to serve non-consecutive terms. In his first term he had Aldai Stevenson and in his second Thomas Hendricks (who died in office and was not replaced).
Theodore Roosevelt unsuccessfully ran as a third party candidate in 1912 and had a different running mate. I do not know of any other presidents who tried.
In any case I do not see why, when running for a non-consecutive term rather than as an incumbent, the former president would not choose somebody else if that person is a better fit at the time. As others pointed out, many presidents switched veeps for different reasons, but at least when running for reelection one could see the value of continuity of the ticket and not change the running mate except for a good reason. When running for a non-consecutive term, that reason is no longer there.

I thought for sure you brain farted about Stevenson, but I now see he was the grandfather of the Adlai Stevenson who ran for Dem presidental nominee twice in the '50's.

 

[ZiprHead]

‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’: can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?

The professor on his famous 13 ‘keys’ to the White House, a method for predicting election results that’s been right nine times out of 10

www.theguardian.com

e has been called the Nostradamus of US presidential elections. Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted the result of nine of the past 10 (and even the one that got away, in 2000, he insists was stolen from Al Gore). But now he is gearing up for perhaps his greatest challenge: Joe Biden v Donald Trump II.

Lichtman is a man of parts. The history professor has been teaching at American University in Washington for half a century. He is a former North American 3,000m steeplechase champion and, at 77 – the same age as Trump – aiming to compete in the next Senior Olympics. In 1981 he appeared on the TV quizshow Tic-Tac-Dough and won $110,000 in cash and prizes.

That same year he developed his now famous 13 keys to the White House, a method for predicting presidential election results that every four years tantalises the media, intrigues political operatives and provokes sniping from pollsters. Long before talk of the Steele dossier or Mueller investigation, it all began with a Russian reaching out across the cold war divide.

“I’d love to tell you I developed my system by ruining my eyes in the archives, by deep contemplation, but if I were to say that, to quote the late great Richard Nixon, that would be wrong,” Lichtman recalls from a book-crowded office on the AU campus. “Like so many discoveries, it was kind of serendipitous.”

The thirteen keys

The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. If five or fewer of the following statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House#cite_note-Lichtman_2020-12">[12]</a>

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

 

[Tigers!]

JD Vance, Senator from Ohio, named as VP for Trump's ticket.

JD Vance is better known as the RINO who demanded corporations be held accountable for damage to the environment*.

* - in one case in Ohio

While JD Vance has almost no experience in Congress, in the Senate, he has served the House (unbearded) since 2017.

Is experience in the Senate, Congress considered important as opposed to being in the House (hopefully you do not mean 'the big house')

 

[Tigers!]

Wondering...
Has any previously elected president, when running again, ever selected a different VP from the one with whom he won previously?

Grover Cleveland is the only president to serve non-consecutive terms. In his first term he had Aldai Stevenson and in his second Thomas Hendricks (who died in office and was not replaced).
Theodore Roosevelt unsuccessfully ran as a third party candidate in 1912 and had a different running mate. I do not know of any other presidents who tried.
In any case I do not see why, when running for a non-consecutive term rather than as an incumbent, the former president would not choose somebody else if that person is a better fit at the time. As others pointed out, many presidents switched veeps for different reasons, but at least when running for reelection one could see the value of continuity of the ticket and not change the running mate except for a good reason. When running for a non-consecutive term, that reason is no longer there.

I thought for sure you brain farted about Stevenson, but I now see he was the grandfather of the Adlai Stevenson who ran for Dem presidental nominee twice in the '50's.

That was my first thought too. That Aldai Stevenson had been around that long!

 

[pood]

Yep, Adlai’s grandfather was indeed vice president under Grover Cleveland, whose voice, incidentally, was recorded while he gave a speech somewhere The recording is poor, but he sounded like quite the stemwinder, with an accent and cadences a bit like that of FDR.

 

[pood]

It came out that ol’ Grover fathered an illegitimate child, which inspired the chant, “Maw, Maw, where’s my Paw? Off to the White House, haw, haw, haw!”

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

JD Vance, Senator from Ohio, named as VP for Trump's ticket.

JD Vance is better known as the RINO who demanded corporations be held accountable for damage to the environment*.

* - in one case in Ohio

While JD Vance has almost no experience in Congress, in the Senate, he has served the House (unbearded) since 2017.

Is experience in the Senate, Congress considered important as opposed to being in the House (hopefully you do not mean 'the big house')

Okay, is my joke not coming across?

 

[Tigers!]

JD Vance, Senator from Ohio, named as VP for Trump's ticket.

JD Vance is better known as the RINO who demanded corporations be held accountable for damage to the environment*.

* - in one case in Ohio

While JD Vance has almost no experience in Congress, in the Senate, he has served the House (unbearded) since 2017.

Is experience in the Senate, Congress considered important as opposed to being in the House (hopefully you do not mean 'the big house')

Okay, is my joke not coming across?

The joke was so subtle it went through to the keeper without being noticed (just a cricketing thought for you Jimmy)

 

[bilby]

It's starting to piss me off a bit that both Presidential candidates keep insisting over and over that we need to "unify the country..." while taking actions that do the exact opposite of that. Are we supposed to pretend we can't hear the sotto voce "[...under my rule]" that follows that statement?

I didn't think Trump liked Mexicans enough to name one as his VP, even one as reknowned as Sotto Voce.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I definitwly don't get Trump saying it, division is part of the platform.