The Race For 2024

[Jimmy Higgins]

Ohio looks to have held their five Dem seats. Doesn't look like enough though as it appears the GOP might have a one to three majority in the US House. How is that for gerrymander. A high red tide, and almost no change in the US House.

Amazing that Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina finish around the same victory margin for Trump 1.5 to 3 points. Trump's margin in Florida is mindboggling. And likely gets him his first popular vote win.

Well the good news is Trump is ineligible to run for the presidency again in future elections.

Part of me wonders if that even matters.

 

[Copernicus]

Regardless of the purely domestic impact, the international situation is going to make things much worse. If Trump carries through on his tariff threats, we could see an effect that is not unlike that of the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930. The US economy was already crashing, but the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of roughly 20% were met by retaliatory tariffs in other countries. International commerce plummeted, turning a recession into a much worse economic depression.

The big winners in the short term will be China and Russia, but their situation will not improve if our economy takes a nosedive. China needs to export products to our consumers. It already has enough Russian oil, and there isn't much that the Russian economy is going to do to help them, even if Russian oligarchs buy a bunch of new yachts. A trade war with the US cannot be in their interests, even if they do manage to finally subdue and acquire Taiwan.

 

[Copernicus]

So Montana and Arizona pass abortion referendum and then elect the party that killed Roe v Wade and are in close proximity to ban abortion all together. Almost as if the average American voter (black women aside) are "fucking stupid" when it comes to politics.

This is not so surprising when you consider that most women and most families do not see abortion as a right that will affect their lives. Most people support the Roe v Wade rights, but their main concerns were the economy and immigrants (dangerous foreigners). Trump will let them keep their military-style rifles, which they feel they need to defend themselves with against all the crazies out there (illegal immigrants?), who are also armed to the teeth. Anyway, abortion was not at the top of their list of concerns and fears. Kamala Harris had campaign rallies that looked like rock concerts, but people don't really care what celebrities think or who they endorse. She failed to make them feel that she would address their fears and concerns. Trump seemed to be doing that more effectively by stoking up those fears and then promising to shield them from what they feared.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Looking at the CNN Exit Polls, this is the telling thing.

• Family Better Off Than Four Years Ago (24%)
  • Harris 83 / Trump 13
• Worse than Four Years Ago (45%)
  • Harris 17 / Trump 80
• About the Same (30%)
  • Harris 70 / Trump 27

Not relevant, but this result implies Harris won the popular vote. Nearly half of the country think things are worse today than during the pandemic. You can't beat delusion that thick when it is that widespread.

Turn to PA

• Abortion should be legal in all cases (33%)
  • Harris 81 / Trump 17
• Most cases (31%)
  • Harris 57 / Trump 42
• Not in most cases (24%)
  • Harris 5 / Trump 92
• Illegal (5%)

Trump actually has a slight edge here. More notably, over one-third of those that voted for Trump in PA think abortion should be legal in most or all cases. They voted for the guy that gutted Roe v Wade and would sign an abortion ban if the GOP holds the House and kills the filibuster.

 

[crazyfingers]

Almost as if the average American voter (black women aside) are "fucking stupid" when it comes to politics.

It's disgusting. The Lies on the right have made people stupidly ignorant. And the rest are fascists.

My husband is freaking out over the results. I keep telling him, let's just hope it's not going to be as bad as we expect. He keeps telling me it will be that bad. Time will tell.

My wife asked me how I'd feel about moving to a different country this morning. She still owns her mother's house in Ontario though it's being rented and we'd have to buy out her sister and brother. But with the hard-right/Maga holding the Presidency, the Senate, the House and the Supreme Court, the capacity for irreparable harm lasting past my lifeline is great.

You can't beat delusion that thick when it is that widespread.

I continue to wonder how much is delusion/stupid ignorance vs true fascist beliefs.

 

[thebeave]

Despite his reputation as a "right winger", Joe Rogan is not a rabid partisan.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

*deep breath*

Wait, you're fucking serious? Please excuse me for one moment...


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Thank you. I needed that.

That's a lot of laughing! I hope you didn't end up peeing your pants.

Here's a little background for you on Joe Rogan and his personal politics:

Is Joe Rogan a Trump Supporter? Who He Voted for in 2020

A Rogan appearance gives Trump an opportunity to appeal to younger voters, particularly men, who have been targeted as a key voting bloc by his campaign. Rogan's appeal to Republicans grew during COVID-19 when he spoke out about the vaccines and some lockdown measures, but he also hasn't been Trump's biggest fan.

In 2020, Rogan endorsed Senator Bernie Sanders during the Democratic primary and later said during a podcast that he would rather vote for Trump than President Joe Biden. Some people took this to mean that he voted for Trump, but in 2022, Rogan confirmed that he didn't vote for either Trump or Biden.

"I voted Libertarian," Rogan said at the time. "I voted Jo Jorgensen. I knew she didn't have a shot. Legalizing drugs. I knew California was going to Biden no matter what and I couldn't. I was looking at the whole thing like 'what is this?'"

Rogan also said in 2022 that he didn't want to have Trump on the podcast and that he turned down a number of opportunities to interview the former president. He said he didn't want to "help" him and called him an "existential threat to democracy."

In August, Rogan said former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was the only candidate that makes "sense" to him. He said Kennedy is the only candidate that isn't gaslighting and manipulating voters. But, he later clarified, he wasn't endorsing him.

Over the years, Rogan's been a vocal critic of both parties. He suggested Biden was too old to be president before he was even elected, and has since speculated that there would be a clamp down on free speech online if Vice President Kamala Harris wins in November.

In July 2022 he called himself a "bleeding heart liberal" when it comes to social issues, and criticized Republicans for going after gay marriage and abortion.

After the debate, Rogan praised Harris' performance and said she was better at answering questions than Trump. However, in a podcast earlier this year, he said he can't consider himself a liberal anymore.

"I used to be part of the blue bubble. I was 100 percent a left leaning person who lived in Los Angeles. I never voted Republican my entire life," Rogan said.

I stand by what I said. I honestly don't know how you can conclude that my statement that "he is not a rabid partisan" is laughable or false.

 

[ZiprHead]

So Harris was up by 3 points in Iowa. Trump won there by 14 points. Polls all over the country came out wrong, although wrong in the opposite direction from what I hoped for.

Polls today suck.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So Harris was up by 3 points in Iowa. Trump won there by 14 points. Polls all over the country came out wrong, although wrong in the opposite direction from what I hoped for.

Polls today suck.

Polls didn't suck, polls were inconclusive based on the wildcards out there. Dobbs, the 2022 Mid-terms, 2016-2020 polling deficit on Trump numbers. Selzer botched Iowa badly. I'm wondering if she slept well last night. She was the only one to have a poll look like that, which created this potential Dewey setup.

Florida is the crazy outcome to me. Harris outperformed Biden with White women, did about the same with Black women. She a tad of white men 2 to 1 white men for Trump. When the hell did Florida become that red? Granted 2020, it was about the same. Harris lost decent ground to latino males (again 2 to 1?!) and a bit of ground to latino women. She lost latino women to Trump. Florida has turned ruby red.

 

[Shadowy Man]

To me, this election is strong evidence that the US remains a very sexist country.

lol. Change the record, love.

Speaking of broken records, how’s the weather in Santa Monica today?

 

[ZiprHead]

So Harris was up by 3 points in Iowa. Trump won there by 14 points. Polls all over the country came out wrong, although wrong in the opposite direction from what I hoped for.

Polls today suck.

Polls didn't suck, polls were inconclusive based on the wildcards out there. Dobbs, the 2022 Mid-terms, 2016-2020 polling deficit on Trump numbers. Selzer botched Iowa badly. I'm wondering if she slept well last night. She was the only one to have a poll look like that, which created this potential Dewey setup.

Florida is the crazy outcome to me. Harris outperformed Biden with White women, did about the same with Black women. She a tad of white men 2 to 1 white men for Trump. When the hell did Florida become that red? Granted 2020, it was about the same. Harris lost decent ground to latino males (again 2 to 1?!) and a bit of ground to latino women. She lost latino women to Trump. Florida has turned ruby red.

Inconclusive is just as useless as bad polls.

 

[TomC]

Inconclusive is just as useless as bad polls.

Not for people selling advertising on their click bait websites.
Tom

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump picked up in nearly every county in PA.

 

[Elixir]

Trump picked up in nearly every county in PA.

Fearmongering works.

 

[ZiprHead]

A random number generator determined the “favorite" in our forecast

So fine: let's go to the tiebreaker round.

www.natesilver.net

When I say the odds in this year’s presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I’m not exaggerating.

At exactly midnight on Tuesday, I pressed the “go” button for the final time on our election model this year. I knew it was going to be close. I felt like I was spinning a roulette wheel. (Appropriate, I guess, in a year when I published a book about gambling.) We’d decided ahead of time to run 80,000 simulations instead of our usual 40K.

And after 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won the Electoral College in … 40,012 of them, or 50.015 percent. The remaining 39,988 were split between Trump (39,718) and no majority — a 269-269 tie — which practically speaking would probably be resolved for Trump in the U.S. House.

Oops.

 

[Gospel]

Apologies if this sounds off, but don't Republicans often engage in projection? Could it be that the election was genuinely stolen this time?

 

[TSwizzle]

Well. that's it all over. Despite everything that went on, the full weight of the MSM behind Harris, the bogus trials and lawsuits, the underhanded tactics to try to keep Trump off the ticket in certain states, the accusations of dementia, he's a crook, he's a nazi, he's a rapist, he's a racist, he's a misogynist etc, Trump was swept into power on a red wave.

Let that sink in, Trump, despite his obvious flaws was preferred over Harris. By quite a wide margin too.

 

[TomC]

Well. that's it all over. Despite everything that went on, the full weight of the MSM behind Harris, the bogus trials and lawsuits, the underhanded tactics to try to keep Trump off the ticket in certain states, the accusations of dementia, je's a crook, he's a nazi, he's a rapist, he's misogynist etc, Trump was swept into power on a red wave.

Let that sink in, Trump, despite his obvious flaws was preferred over Harris. By quite a wide margin too.

When Biden-Harris won in 2020, was it over?

Or are you just assuming that their supporters are more peaceful and rules following than Trump followers? More patriotic?

Is it over, because Trump says it is?
Tom

 

[Politesse]

Apologies if this sounds off, but don't Republicans often engage in projection? Could it be that the election was genuinely stolen this time?

To the tune of 5 million votes? I'll say to you what I've said to many a Republican over the last four years, a heist on that scale would leave evidence. Our political operators are just not that good.

 

[scombrid]

Despite his reputation as a "right winger", Joe Rogan is not a rabid partisan.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

*deep breath*

Wait, you're fucking serious? Please excuse me for one moment...


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Thank you. I needed that.

That's a lot of laughing! I hope you didn't end up peeing your pants.

Here's a little background for you on Joe Rogan and his personal politics:

Is Joe Rogan a Trump Supporter? Who He Voted for in 2020

A Rogan appearance gives Trump an opportunity to appeal to younger voters, particularly men, who have been targeted as a key voting bloc by his campaign. Rogan's appeal to Republicans grew during COVID-19 when he spoke out about the vaccines and some lockdown measures, but he also hasn't been Trump's biggest fan.

In 2020, Rogan endorsed Senator Bernie Sanders during the Democratic primary and later said during a podcast that he would rather vote for Trump than President Joe Biden. Some people took this to mean that he voted for Trump, but in 2022, Rogan confirmed that he didn't vote for either Trump or Biden.

"I voted Libertarian," Rogan said at the time. "I voted Jo Jorgensen. I knew she didn't have a shot. Legalizing drugs. I knew California was going to Biden no matter what and I couldn't. I was looking at the whole thing like 'what is this?'"

Rogan also said in 2022 that he didn't want to have Trump on the podcast and that he turned down a number of opportunities to interview the former president. He said he didn't want to "help" him and called him an "existential threat to democracy."

In August, Rogan said former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was the only candidate that makes "sense" to him. He said Kennedy is the only candidate that isn't gaslighting and manipulating voters. But, he later clarified, he wasn't endorsing him.

Over the years, Rogan's been a vocal critic of both parties. He suggested Biden was too old to be president before he was even elected, and has since speculated that there would be a clamp down on free speech online if Vice President Kamala Harris wins in November.

In July 2022 he called himself a "bleeding heart liberal" when it comes to social issues, and criticized Republicans for going after gay marriage and abortion.

After the debate, Rogan praised Harris' performance and said she was better at answering questions than Trump. However, in a podcast earlier this year, he said he can't consider himself a liberal anymore.

"I used to be part of the blue bubble. I was 100 percent a left leaning person who lived in Los Angeles. I never voted Republican my entire life," Rogan said.

I stand by what I said. I honestly don't know how you can conclude that my statement that "he is not a rabid partisan" is laughable or false.

I agree that Rogan isn't partisan. He just happens to buy into a lot of half baked shit and the GOP has actively courted these people. A lot of them didn't bother to vote prior to 2016. Rogan was one of these bro dudes that just wanted to smoke pot and use steroids without the government fucking with him. He's become convinced that the Democrats are "The Powers That Be" and somehow the Republicans are for liberty and not corporate hegemony. That's why he's in the Kennedy Gabbard camp. They have a good message about corporate power run amok but then they run off in whacky directions that end up supporting the machine they claim to be fighting. Kennedy gave a speech at a Tucker event where he said that the Democratic Party is now the party of Dick Cheney. That sentiment has pulled a lot of the No Party Affiliation people that voted for Obama into the Republican base. The chemtrail people, anti-vax, truthers, etc... are a solid part of the GOP now. Vance and Musk both joined Rogan in blaming vaccines for a whole host of shit in their recent interviews.

If you bring up Project 2025 and The Heritage Foundation they act like you are being paranoid. I don't know if they are willfully looking the other way on that or if they think it is fake news.

 

[scombrid]

Apologies if this sounds off, but don't Republicans often engage in projection? Could it be that the election was genuinely stolen this time?

To the tune of 5 million votes? I'll say to you what I've said to many a Republican over the last four years, a heist on that scale would leave evidence. Our political operators are just not that good.

But we control the weather.