The Race For 2024

[TomC]

There is no doubt that he would have taken out Al-quada in Afghanistan.

This reminds me of something from the 2012 campaign.
Someone asked one of Obama's top campaign dudes, "What would your bumper sticker say?"
Guy replies, "GM is alive. Bin Laden is dead. Vote Obama!"
Tom

 

[Politesse]

People are dumb! Behind the scenes, Biden is putting pressure on Israel to lower civilian deaths, follow international law, find a solution that works for both sides. Today, Biden repeated that Israel has the right to defend itself, but he said it must do so in a way that minimizes civilian casualties

Like we did in Iraq?

When it comes to foreigner policy, the only difference between these men is the window dressing.

That's actually a great analogy. I continually heard from the Nader bros that there is no difference between Gore and Bush on foreign policy (and other issues). Rubbish. If Gore had been elected, we would not have invaded Iraq. There is no doubt that he would have taken out Al-quada in Afghanistan. I like you as a poster, but I'm just not going to engage in a thread if you don't understand the real foreign policy differences between Biden and Trump.

Who ended the war in Iraq, Harry? Who continued the trade war with China? Neither man has a true agenda, they just have commitments, and a vast military-industrial complex whispering in their ear 24/7. American presidents do not decide military matters on the basis of personal principles, not on either "side". Or on the basis of whatever campaign promises they may have made to public. That just isn't how executive branch policies happen. Anyone who steps into that office must continue to support Israel and look the other way no matter what happens in Gaza, and he assuredly will.

Do you honestly believe that if a news story started circulating tomorrow about the Israeli army using a bus full of fifty Palestinian toddlers for target practice and raping the five survivors, Biden would be on the news the next morning announcing that he was wrong, the Gaza campaign is a genocide, and our financial and military hardware support for the campaign ending immediately? Or would he get in front of the cameras and say that he "condemns the violence in the strongest terms" but assure us that he has "Benjamin Netanyahu's personal assurance that this was an abberration whose instigators will be brought to justice"?

No one who steps into the Oval Office has the right or the prerogative to stop Israeli expansionism in any concrete way, nor will they try. Republican and Democratic press conferences sound very different. They must pitch things to their base in different ways. But they cannot act in different ways. It isn't the 20th century anymore.

 

[TomC]

Do you honestly believe that if a news story started circulating tomorrow about the Israeli army using a bus full of fifty Palestinian toddlers for target practice and raping the five survivors, Biden would be on the news the next morning announcing that he was wrong,

Frankly, it would be hard to convince me that isn't just another Islamist lie.
Tom

 

[Politesse]

Do you honestly believe that if a news story started circulating tomorrow about the Israeli army using a bus full of fifty Palestinian toddlers for target practice and raping the five survivors, Biden would be on the news the next morning announcing that he was wrong,

Frankly, it would be hard to convince me that isn't just another Islamist lie.
Tom

Exactly. There's a way to sell things to Republicans, and a way to sell them to Democrats. The way works. But you can't change the things.

 

[Derec]

But Obama, Biden, and Clinton forged a peace deal with Iran. Imperfect, but it was a start.

It was more than imperfect. It was rotten to the core.
It gave the regime in Tehran billions between sanction relief and pallets of cash that they just used to fund and arm international terrorism - Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis. Iran deal funded the 10/7 massacre.
In turn Tehran regime only agreed to pause their nuclear weapons program for 10-15 years. Not give it up permanently. And the deal had no provision for missile technology or terrorism funding and arming.

Trump also cut US support for NATO and Ukraine.

Yes, that part was bad. That said, US should have reacted way sooner on Ukraine. 2014 at the latest.

 

[Derec]

The muslims who are considering not voting for Biden have been through this shit before.

Yeah, how dare those sneaky Joos strike back when the muslims[sic] are massacring them.

 

[TomC]

It was more than imperfect. It was rotten to the core.

As opposed to what the Republicans and Trump chose?
Now Iran isn't just supporting Hamas, they're pumping up their military. Because Americans are going to keep attacking them, the way they've been doing since the 50s.

Trump keeps reinforcing the American political "right", insisting that Americans need to keep up the violence.

Eff that. I'm not even a theist but I'm too Christian to support that Bullshit.
Tom

 

[ZiprHead]

Minnesota justices appear skeptical that states should decide Trump's eligibility for the ballot

Minnesota Supreme Court justices appear skeptical states have the authority to block ex-President Donald Trump from the 2024 ballot.

apnews.com

ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — Minnesota Supreme Court justices appeared skeptical Thursday that states have the authority to block former President Donald Trump from the ballot, with some suggesting that Congress is best positioned to decide whether his role in the 2021 U.S. Capitol attack should prevent him from running.

Justices sharply questioned an attorney representing Minnesota voters who had sued to keep Trump, the early front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, off the state ballot under the rarely used “insurrection” clause of the U.S. Constitution. Citing Congress’ role in certifying presidential electors and its ability to impeach, several justices said it seemed that questions of eligibility should be settled there.

“And those all seem to suggest there is a fundamental role for Congress to play and not the states because of that,” Chief Justice Natalie E. Hudson said. “It’s that interrelation that I think is troubling, that suggests that this is a national matter for Congress to decide.”

So the judges want a legal question settled by a political body. Cowards.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

That's ridiculous.
Iraq was an utter disaster to be sure. But Obama, Biden, and Clinton forged a peace deal with Iran. Imperfect, but it was a start. Republicans torpedoed it from the get go, and Trump finished it off.
Trump also cut US support for NATO and Ukraine. I'm not sure Russia would be doing what their doing if Trump's policies hadn't paved the way.

Calling what we had with Iran a peace deal is wrong. They didn't change their ways one bit. They're still arming terrorists. They're still taking hostages. They're just working on a bomb at new sites.

 

[Elixir]

Iran really stepped up their terrorism industry after Trump tore up the nuclear treaty.
Everything Trump has done from day 1 of his first presidential campaign, has been to the benefit of his benefactor (Putin) and to the detriment of the citizens of the United States.

 

[TomC]

That's ridiculous.
Iraq was an utter disaster to be sure. But Obama, Biden, and Clinton forged a peace deal with Iran. Imperfect, but it was a start. Republicans torpedoed it from the get go, and Trump finished it off.
Trump also cut US support for NATO and Ukraine. I'm not sure Russia would be doing what their doing if Trump's policies hadn't paved the way.

Calling what we had with Iran a peace deal is wrong. They didn't change their ways one bit. They're still arming terrorists. They're still taking hostages. They're just working on a bomb at new sites.

Because Trump and his Teaparty compadres prevented Obama's plan from ever getting anywhere.

The USA has been attacking Iran since the 50s. Obama tried to stop that. Teapartiers couldn't allow the Obama administration to accomplish anything, so they kept up the attacks.

Now Iran is better connected to Russia than the USA. They're arming Hamas, and there's little the USA can do about that because Republicans refuse to abide by any peace process.

Trump and his supporters picked this. Not Obama or his supporters, like me.
Tom

 

[Loren Pechtel]

That's ridiculous.
Iraq was an utter disaster to be sure. But Obama, Biden, and Clinton forged a peace deal with Iran. Imperfect, but it was a start. Republicans torpedoed it from the get go, and Trump finished it off.
Trump also cut US support for NATO and Ukraine. I'm not sure Russia would be doing what their doing if Trump's policies hadn't paved the way.

Calling what we had with Iran a peace deal is wrong. They didn't change their ways one bit. They're still arming terrorists. They're still taking hostages. They're just working on a bomb at new sites.

Because Trump and his Teaparty compadres prevented Obama's plan from ever getting anywhere.

The USA has been attacking Iran since the 50s. Obama tried to stop that. Teapartiers couldn't allow the Obama administration to accomplish anything, so they kept up the attacks.

Now Iran is better connected to Russia than the USA. They're arming Hamas, and there's little the USA can do about that because Republicans refuse to abide by any peace process.

Trump and his supporters picked this. Not Obama or his supporters, like me.
Tom

Iran is supporting terrorism against various nations, not just against the US. Thus blaming their actions on ours does not make sense.

 

[Politesse]

That's ridiculous.
Iraq was an utter disaster to be sure. But Obama, Biden, and Clinton forged a peace deal with Iran. Imperfect, but it was a start. Republicans torpedoed it from the get go, and Trump finished it off.
Trump also cut US support for NATO and Ukraine. I'm not sure Russia would be doing what their doing if Trump's policies hadn't paved the way.

Calling what we had with Iran a peace deal is wrong. They didn't change their ways one bit. They're still arming terrorists. They're still taking hostages. They're just working on a bomb at new sites.

Because Trump and his Teaparty compadres prevented Obama's plan from ever getting anywhere.

The USA has been attacking Iran since the 50s. Obama tried to stop that. Teapartiers couldn't allow the Obama administration to accomplish anything, so they kept up the attacks.

Now Iran is better connected to Russia than the USA. They're arming Hamas, and there's little the USA can do about that because Republicans refuse to abide by any peace process.

Trump and his supporters picked this. Not Obama or his supporters, like me.
Tom

Iran is supporting terrorism against various nations, not just against the US. Thus blaming their actions on ours does not make sense.

Why do you believe that Iran has the alliances and takes the actions that it does?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

That's ridiculous.
Iraq was an utter disaster to be sure. But Obama, Biden, and Clinton forged a peace deal with Iran. Imperfect, but it was a start. Republicans torpedoed it from the get go, and Trump finished it off.
Trump also cut US support for NATO and Ukraine. I'm not sure Russia would be doing what their doing if Trump's policies hadn't paved the way.

Calling what we had with Iran a peace deal is wrong. They didn't change their ways one bit. They're still arming terrorists. They're still taking hostages. They're just working on a bomb at new sites.

Because Trump and his Teaparty compadres prevented Obama's plan from ever getting anywhere.

The USA has been attacking Iran since the 50s. Obama tried to stop that. Teapartiers couldn't allow the Obama administration to accomplish anything, so they kept up the attacks.

Now Iran is better connected to Russia than the USA. They're arming Hamas, and there's little the USA can do about that because Republicans refuse to abide by any peace process.

Trump and his supporters picked this. Not Obama or his supporters, like me.
Tom

Iran is supporting terrorism against various nations, not just against the US. Thus blaming their actions on ours does not make sense.

Why do you believe that Iran has the alliances and takes the actions that it does?

Ever hear the term "Axis of resistance"? Wikipedia calls them a coalition but it's more a case of puppets than cooperation amongst equals.

 

[Politesse]

That's ridiculous.
Iraq was an utter disaster to be sure. But Obama, Biden, and Clinton forged a peace deal with Iran. Imperfect, but it was a start. Republicans torpedoed it from the get go, and Trump finished it off.
Trump also cut US support for NATO and Ukraine. I'm not sure Russia would be doing what their doing if Trump's policies hadn't paved the way.

Calling what we had with Iran a peace deal is wrong. They didn't change their ways one bit. They're still arming terrorists. They're still taking hostages. They're just working on a bomb at new sites.

Because Trump and his Teaparty compadres prevented Obama's plan from ever getting anywhere.

The USA has been attacking Iran since the 50s. Obama tried to stop that. Teapartiers couldn't allow the Obama administration to accomplish anything, so they kept up the attacks.

Now Iran is better connected to Russia than the USA. They're arming Hamas, and there's little the USA can do about that because Republicans refuse to abide by any peace process.

Trump and his supporters picked this. Not Obama or his supporters, like me.
Tom

Iran is supporting terrorism against various nations, not just against the US. Thus blaming their actions on ours does not make sense.

Why do you believe that Iran has the alliances and takes the actions that it does?

Ever hear the term "Axis of resistance"? Wikipedia calls them a coalition but it's more a case of puppets than cooperation amongst equals.

Yes, I have. Against what do they resist, and why?

Do you remember why they started calling it that, in fact? Whose open and intentional provocation they were quoting? A pea in a goddamned pod, that's who.

This war is the design, not just the result, of three generations of mutual animosity and contempt continually stoked and restoked, and the lives of both Israeli and Palestinian peoples have been treated as worthless pawns on the board by the principal players, for the whole while. It's disgusting, and there are and will be no heroes here. Two thousand dead children in a fortnight, and the real violence is only now beginning to escalate. There is no future in which things get better, and we remember this act of ethnic cleansing positively ten or twenty years from now. There will be no peace, the and war will break out again in earnest around that time, as the next generation reaches fighting age. Genocide is ethically wrong, but it also doesn't work. As the very existence of Israel proves.

It sickens me, the choice I'll be obliged to make with my vote in this election. I've never been so tempted to sit one out, but of course I cannot.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

That's ridiculous.
Iraq was an utter disaster to be sure. But Obama, Biden, and Clinton forged a peace deal with Iran. Imperfect, but it was a start. Republicans torpedoed it from the get go, and Trump finished it off.
Trump also cut US support for NATO and Ukraine. I'm not sure Russia would be doing what their doing if Trump's policies hadn't paved the way.

Calling what we had with Iran a peace deal is wrong.

Not a peace deal, but a working towards peace deal. Opening up Iran leads to a freer Iran. Letting them isolate allows the religious extremists to maintain control. There are millions in Iran ready for modernization.

They didn't change their ways one bit.

We are playing a long game. There is no magic peace deal. There is no mining moon that explodes that causes Iran to grovel to us at the table. Your plan will never work.

 

[lpetrich]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/ now redirects to https://abcnews.go.com/538 though the links to fivethirtyeight's pages are still valid.

The third Republican debate stage will be less crowded - ABC News

• Polls, donors, pledge: Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie
• Donors, pledge: Tim Scott, Doug Burgum
• Polls, donors: Donald Trump
• Pledge: Asa Hutchinson

The pledge is to support whichever candidate the Republican Party nominates for President, and also to participate only in Presidential debates hosted by the Republican National Committee. Donald Trump has refused to take that pledge, but the others have done so.

The thresholds have steadily increased from debate to debate, to remove poorly-performing candidates.

Polling:

1. At least 1% in either 3 national polls or 2 national polls and 2 different early-primary-state polls
2. At least 3% in either 2 national pols or 1 national poll and 2 different early-primary-state polls
3. At least 4% in either 2 national pols or 1 national poll and 2 different early-primary-state polls
4. At least 6% in either 2 national pols or 1 national poll and 2 different early-primary-state polls

Donors:

1. At least 40,000, or at least 200 each from 20 states and/or territories
2. At least 50,000, or at least 200 each from 20 states and/or territories
3. At least 70,000, or at least 200 each from 20 states and/or territories
4. At least 80,000, or at least 200 each from 20 states and/or territories

Where and when:

1. August 23, 2023 – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
2. September 27, 2023 – Simi Valley, California
3. November 8, 2023 – Miami, Florida
4. December 6, 2023 – Tuscaloosa, Alabama

That's a little less than one per month, and a month from the fourth one is the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries. So I think that the fourth debate will be the last one of the Republican Presidential nomination campaign.

1. RNC Announces Criteria and Date for First Debate in Milwaukee | GOP
2. Qualifying Criteria for the Second Republican Presidential Debate | GOP
3. Qualifying Criteria for the Third Republican Presidential Debate | GOP
4. Qualifying Criteria for the Fourth Republican Presidential Debate | GOP

 2024 Republican Party presidential debates and forums

 

[lpetrich]

Adam Kinzinger muses: 'I would love to run against Ted Cruz' - ABC News

In an interview promoting his new book, "Renegade: Defending Democracy and Liberty In Our Divided Country," former Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger told 538 Politics podcast host Galen Druke, "I would love to run against Ted Cruz." He continued, "the most complete con artist in politics, like one of them, to be able to run against his face in public would be amazing."

...
Kinzinger, who recently moved to Houston from Illinois, elaborated on his desire to challenge Cruz: "I would like to, but right now, I'm not in a position to. You know, I've got a young kid. I've got to kind of come down from the last couple of years. But if there's a moment that comes along and the timing is right. Yeah, absolutely."

He also suggested the Democratic Party would be wise to back someone like him as a statewide candidate in Texas: "If you're a smart Democratic Party, you'd put somebody like me as your candidate, right? You'd put them through the primary because, I'm sorry, [former Rep. Beto O'Rourke] is not going to win Texas. If you get a conservative Democrat, you could win Texas."

 

[lpetrich]

 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries has a table of the candidates' fundraising.

Of the candidates still in the race,

• Total: Trump, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Haley, Burgum, Scott, Binkley, Christie, Hutchinson
• Total over last quarter: Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, Binkley, Scott, Christie, Burgum, Hutchinson

From  2024 Republican Party presidential debates and forums, DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, and Trump qualify in polls and donors, and all but Trump qualify in the pledge.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination - Trump, DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, (Pence), Christie, Scott, Burgum, Hutchinson

Judging from polling and fundraising, here is my ordering of candidates:

Binkley, Hutchinson, Burgum, (Scott, Christie), Ramaswamy, Haley, DeSantis, Trump

 

[lpetrich]

Who is Ryan Binkley?

He's still running: North Central Iowa Embraces Presidential Candidate Ryan Binkley

"My interest is not just seeing Iowa first; my interest is in keeping Iowa relevant," Binkley said to dozens of Republicans. "The RNC is trying to select the field of presidential candidates. Let's let Iowa tell us who the candidates are instead of letting the RNC or any other organization decide."

He has reportedly visited more than 80 counties in Iowa, out of 99. So he's determined to make a showing there.

"We're going to keep shouting this message that we better get back to God and get back to each other. We better quit the division in our country, balance the budget, end the monopolies in healthcare, protect our freedoms and landowners' rights, and get the government out of our life," Binkley said.

Civiqs_ISU_banner_book_2023_10_vote.pdf | Powered by Box
Civiqs - Iowa State University - Iowa Republican Caucus Voter Survey - October 2023

I have added a --- after the entry for a candidate who has since withdrawn.

First choice:

Donald Trump, former President 55%
Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida 17%
Nikki Haley, former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Governor 11%
Vivek Ramaswamy, entrepreneur and political commentator 5%
Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina 4%
Chris Christie, former Governor of New Jersey 2%
Ryan Binkley, pastor and businessman 2%
Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota 1%
Mike Pence, former Vice President 1% ---
Asa Hutchinson, former Governor of Arkansas 0%
Will Hurd, former U.S. Representative from Texas 0% ---
Perry Johnson, businessman 0% ---
Larry Elder, talk radio host and 2021 California gubernatorial candidate 0% ---
Unsure 1%
I would not vote in the Republican Caucus 0%

Second choice:

Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida 22%
Nikki Haley, former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Governor 18%
Vivek Ramaswamy, entrepreneur and political commentator 16%
Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina 13%
Donald Trump, former President 8%
Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota 5%
Larry Elder, talk radio host and 2021 California gubernatorial candidate 3% ---
Mike Pence, former Vice President 2% ---
Chris Christie, former Governor of New Jersey 2%
Perry Johnson, businessman 1% ---
Will Hurd, former U.S. Representative from Texas 0% ---
Ryan Binkley, pastor and businessman 0%
Asa Hutchinson, former Governor of Arkansas 0%
Corey Stapleton, former Montana Secretary of State 0% ---
Unsure 9%
I would not vote in the Republican Caucus 0%

That's not much ground for optimism. RB is doing better than Doug Burgum and Asa Hutchinson, and about as well as Chirs Christie, and that's not saying much.