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The Race For 2024

Man, with Hogan winning the primary in Maryland, the GOP base managed to not score yet another own goal in the primaries. This increases their chances at taking the Senate, as Hogan is a really strong candidate. West Virginia is about certain. That leaves Ohio, Montana, and Maryland as vulnerable. Ohio keeps shifting to the right due to some self-affirmative gerrymandering. Brown is about as strong a candidate can be in Ohio. Tim Ryan was pretty strong too, but he lost to Vance. Brown at least has incumbency on his side.

Florida and Texas are the weak spots for the GOP, but it'll take something special. Losing the Senate would suck as SCOTUS appointments could get irreparably nasty if Biden wins and the GOP control the Senate. The Dems should take the House. The fact that the Dems even have a shot at the Senate, however, is promising, even if the polls aren't at the moment. Well, for Biden. The Democrats are polling better in the Senate than Biden is.
 
Swammerdami said:
Swammerdami said:
Polymarket ... numbers there aren't happy to look at: 47% to 45% Trump's favor. The numbers at Betfair are even worse: 48½% vs 39½%.
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Is something bad happening as Michael Cohen testifies? The above numbers were from just a few hours ago, but right now we see 48% vs 44% at Polymarket and 50% vs 39% at Betfair.
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Two days later we see 50% vs 44% at Polymarket and 51½% vs 38% at Betfair. After months of "noisy" fluctuations near 50-50, the prediction markets now seem to "think" Trump's chances are improving.

But the big news story is that Trump's trial is going well for prosecutors. Do people think a guilty verdict will be good for the criminal's chances to win in November?
 
Swammerdami said:
But the big news story is that Trump's trial is going well for prosecutors. Do people think a guilty verdict will be good for the criminal's chances to win in November?
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Maybe what they're noticing is all the people who are not supporting Biden because of the Gazan thing?
It doesn't take many voters to sway states like Michigan.

There were enough to swing the election to Trump in 2016. Someone said that there are people who don't want to support Biden because they think he didn't fight hard enough to protect Choice.
There's plenty of low information voters on both sides.
Tom
 
www.bostonglobe.com

Why polling is so often wrong - The Boston Globe

If political pollsters were physicians, large numbers of them would be getting hauled before medical disciplinary boards for misdiagnosing their patients.
www.bostonglobe.com www.bostonglobe.com
If political pollsters were physicians, large numbers of them would be getting hauled before medical disciplinary boards for misdiagnosing their patients.
Many pollsters performed poorly in the last three national elections. They exaggerated Democratic support in the 2016 and 2020 presidential races and inflated Republican strength in the 2022 congressional midterms. Yet in the midst of another tight White House two seasons out from the election, they are again making confident, if changing, predictions about the outcome.
Even the 2022 debacle, when the widely forecast “red tsunami” in the House of Representatives became a trickle of actual Republican gains, hasn’t dented pollsters’ confidence – or news outlets’ and voters’ appetite for their suspect wares.
Now, with Joe Biden and Donald Trump locked in a close rematch, near-daily reports on its status are causing political whiplash.
On March 11, following weeks of poll results causing Democratic despair, Newsweek ran an article with the breathless headline: “Joe Biden Suddenly Leads Donald Trump in Multiple Polls.”
Two-plus weeks later, a Bloomberg article reported that Biden had tightened the races in key battleground states.
A closer look at those polls, however, showed the margins in virtually each case to be so narrow as to make them meaningless – both in national surveys and especially in polls of swing states with their smaller sample sizes. A good share of the preceding polls that showed Trump “ahead” had the same problems.
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Details in the link.
 
www.yahoo.com

Roger Stone Blasted For Claiming '90s Concert Photo Was Actually Trump Rally

The GOP operative tried to claim a photo of a Rod Stewart concert in Rio de Janeiro was taken in New Jersey this past weekend.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
Republican operative Roger Stone was slammed on Sunday after he posted a picture of what he claimed was a photo of the supposedly massive crowds at former President Donald Trump’sNew Jersey rally on Saturday.

A spokesperson for the city of Wildwood, New Jersey ― where the rally took place ― estimated that as many as 100,000 people showed up to the rally.

However, photos and film footage told a different story.

Although there was a crowd of people behind the former president when he spoke, the audience in front looked sparse, and got smaller toward the end of his 90-minute speech.

On Sunday, Stone posted a photo of a large crowd and claimed it was from the Trump rally:

“Yeah , New Jersey is in play for@realDonaldTrump. Could Joe Biden draw a crowd like this?”
Click to expand...


However, people noticed the mountains in the background, which aren’t a part of the topography of the New Jersey shore, and immediately ascertained the photo was fake.

In fact, as the community note that was eventually attached to Stone’s post noted, the photo was actually from a 1994 Rod Stewart concert in Rio De Janeiro.

Not surprisingly, Stone’s attempt at misinformation was heavily mocked on X, formerly Twitter.
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Asshole.
 
ZiprHead said:
www.yahoo.com

Roger Stone Blasted For Claiming '90s Concert Photo Was Actually Trump Rally

The GOP operative tried to claim a photo of a Rod Stewart concert in Rio de Janeiro was taken in New Jersey this past weekend.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
Republican operative Roger Stone was slammed on Sunday after he posted a picture of what he claimed was a photo of the supposedly massive crowds at former President Donald Trump’sNew Jersey rally on Saturday.

A spokesperson for the city of Wildwood, New Jersey ― where the rally took place ― estimated that as many as 100,000 people showed up to the rally.

However, photos and film footage told a different story.

Although there was a crowd of people behind the former president when he spoke, the audience in front looked sparse, and got smaller toward the end of his 90-minute speech.

On Sunday, Stone posted a photo of a large crowd and claimed it was from the Trump rally:

“Yeah , New Jersey is in play for@realDonaldTrump. Could Joe Biden draw a crowd like this?”
Click to expand...


However, people noticed the mountains in the background, which aren’t a part of the topography of the New Jersey shore, and immediately ascertained the photo was fake.

In fact, as the community note that was eventually attached to Stone’s post noted, the photo was actually from a 1994 Rod Stewart concert in Rio De Janeiro.

Not surprisingly, Stone’s attempt at misinformation was heavily mocked on X, formerly Twitter.
Click to expand...
Asshole.
Click to expand...

How many brain cells would it need to realize one should crop out the mountains?
 
Let's see how Nikki Haley did in the most recent primaries.

Maryland: 20% (83% counted), Nebraska 17.2%, West Virginia 9.4%.

A sizable protest vote there also.
 
Shadowy Man said:
How many brain cells would it need to realize one should crop out the mountains?
Click to expand...
No kidding. Those mountains next to the shore are very typical of Rio but not of Jersey Shore - even the Sugarloaf is nearby although not in frame.
What happened to just digitally adding people to the crowd?
 
Shadowy Man said:
ZiprHead said:
www.yahoo.com

Roger Stone Blasted For Claiming '90s Concert Photo Was Actually Trump Rally

The GOP operative tried to claim a photo of a Rod Stewart concert in Rio de Janeiro was taken in New Jersey this past weekend.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
Republican operative Roger Stone was slammed on Sunday after he posted a picture of what he claimed was a photo of the supposedly massive crowds at former President Donald Trump’sNew Jersey rally on Saturday.

A spokesperson for the city of Wildwood, New Jersey ― where the rally took place ― estimated that as many as 100,000 people showed up to the rally.

However, photos and film footage told a different story.

Although there was a crowd of people behind the former president when he spoke, the audience in front looked sparse, and got smaller toward the end of his 90-minute speech.

On Sunday, Stone posted a photo of a large crowd and claimed it was from the Trump rally:

“Yeah , New Jersey is in play for@realDonaldTrump. Could Joe Biden draw a crowd like this?”
Click to expand...


However, people noticed the mountains in the background, which aren’t a part of the topography of the New Jersey shore, and immediately ascertained the photo was fake.

In fact, as the community note that was eventually attached to Stone’s post noted, the photo was actually from a 1994 Rod Stewart concert in Rio De Janeiro.

Not surprisingly, Stone’s attempt at misinformation was heavily mocked on X, formerly Twitter.
Click to expand...
Asshole.
Click to expand...

How many brain cells would it need to realize one should crop out the mountains?
Click to expand...

Not necessary. No GOP voters will notice the fake photo. Point it out to them and they’ll call you a liar or shill or sheeple. Stone cynically knows that it just does not matter if the photo was from Brazil. Claim Trump Big Crowd and job done. Could have glaciers in the background of a rally in Orlando or Bikini Bottom and they’d think it real.

Well a few GOP voters will notice that the photo was not a Trump rally. But they are going to be cynical snakes just like Stone and play along.
 
scombrid said:
could have glaciers in the background of a rally in Orlando or Bikini Bottom and they’d think it real.
Click to expand...

I don't think so. Those fucker probably know Bikini Bottom like the back of their hand.
 
lpetrich said:
Let's see how Nikki Haley did in the most recent primaries.

Maryland: 20% (83% counted), Nebraska 17.2%, West Virginia 9.4%.

A sizable protest vote there also.
Click to expand...

I see lots of misplaced optimism.

Voters who are mildly annoyed with Trump, or just women, might vote for Haley. Some won't even be paying enough attention to know Haley has dropped out. Few of these Haley voters will pull the lever for Biden in November.

Another thing that confuses me is the meme that Trump's brain is failing. He's dyslexic and screws up when he reads a Teleprompter, but when he's speaking without the 'prompter, he's almost his old stupid self.

Optimism is good but unfortunately I tend to pessimism. (Is this chemical imbalance in brain?) I fear tears will be flowing in November.

Fortunately I am not superstitious and don't particularly worry about the impropitious date of this year's election:
Remember, remember, the Fifth of November,
Gunpowder, treason and plot.
I see no reason
Why gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot.
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