The Virus - Are You Affected?

[Elixir]

fucking dosequisvirus has like a 20% higher mortality rate than the normal flu. it's literally nothing.

Bad math. Or bad information...

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died." (yesterday's numbers)
CDC estimates that in the 2018-19 season there were 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza and 34,200 deaths. That's less than 0.1% mortality.

So COVID-19 is more like 3400% more lethal than most common flu strains as far as we know yet. That number too may be off by orders of magnitude, as asymptomatic (incubatory) carriers are now known to transmit the disease, and there has been no testing for those people. There are likely people who will never show symptoms, yet will spread the disease unknowingly. That's different from "normal" flu. There may already be millions of Americans exposed and hundreds of thousands already infected. COVID-19 disease might well turn out to be something that "everyone gets", and is ubiquitous in our environment henceforth like the "common cold" rhinovirus. People will get over it, especially young people. Some mostly older people will die before treatments vaccines etc are developed and made available, but that number will go down over time. Of course if hundreds of millions turn out to be infected and "only" hundreds of thousands die from it, that will be in line with the mortality rate of the 2018-19 flu, but still a freakout...
Personally I don't get the picture that this is going to be contained at all.

 

[prideandfall]

Bad math. Or bad information...
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died." (yesterday's numbers)
CDC estimates that in the 2018-19 season there were 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza and 34,200 deaths. That's less than 0.1% mortality.

or limited samples, because this thing has been tracked since like december and we have about 50 years worth of stats on seasonal flu outbreaks.
every other day they have a new % on mortality rates, it will be quite some time before that normalizes.
even if we take the most dire scenario as the norm, it's a globally insignificant statistical blip which results in vastly fewer deaths than car crashes, bee stings, or being shot in america.

Personally I don't get the picture that this is going to be contained at all.

i don't get the picture this is going to matter at all. humans die, it's what they do. in terms of danger to any random given person it's maybe 200th on the list of things that are going to kill you.
certainly worth an "oh shit lookit that, that's freaky" reponse, but this whole "potential collapse of the global economy" crap is a god damn joke.

 

[Elixir]

i don't get the picture this is going to matter at all. humans die, it's what they do. in terms of danger to any random given person it's maybe 200th on the list of things that are going to kill you.
certainly worth an "oh shit lookit that, that's freaky" reponse, but this whole "potential collapse of the global economy" crap is a god damn joke.

200th? Somewhere below falling out of bed, probably. But you're disregarding the actual effects. I agree that even in the worst case scenario it [COVID-19 virus] won't matter to the human species whatsoever in the long run. But fear matters, and public panic totally matters in the short term. Those things are real. Not to be confused with the stimulus that provokes them, but real. There will be enough grandmothers lost to keep the fear alive for quite a while - probably over a year.

 

[steve_bank]

I'd say Seattle is in the panic mode. Univ Washington will have final exams online. Students being sent home Multiple school closures. One school switching to online classes handing out wireless devices to those who need them.

Today on CNN estimates of mortally rates dropping. Possibly due to early detection and treatment compared to China. Down from 2-3% to .6%.

It would seem then it has not been over reaction if mortality rate is dropping. It must be affecting the infection rate.

 

[prideandfall]

200th? Somewhere below falling out of bed, probably. But you're disregarding the actual effects. I agree that even in the worst case scenario it [COVID-19 virus] won't matter to the human species whatsoever in the long run. But fear matters, and public panic totally matters in the short term. Those things are real. Not to be confused with the stimulus that provokes them, but real. There will be enough grandmothers lost to keep the fear alive for quite a while - probably over a year.

well "matters" obviously in a strictly pragmatic sense, i'm not denying that reality exists. i'm just saying it's totally unjustified by any conceivable metric.
but i'm also a very rational person, and i know i'm an exception in that regard. the irrationality of humans amuses the shit out of me, when it isn't disgusting me.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

i don't get the picture this is going to matter at all. humans die, it's what they do. in terms of danger to any random given person it's maybe 200th on the list of things that are going to kill you.
certainly worth an "oh shit lookit that, that's freaky" reponse, but this whole "potential collapse of the global economy" crap is a god damn joke.

200th? Somewhere below falling out of bed, probably. But you're disregarding the actual effects. I agree that even in the worst case scenario it [COVID-19 virus] won't matter to the human species whatsoever in the long run. But fear matters, and public panic totally matters in the short term. Those things are real. Not to be confused with the stimulus that provokes them, but real. There will be enough grandmothers lost to keep the fear alive for quite a while - probably over a year.

To the human race it won't matter. If everyone in the US gets infected expect to see megadeaths, though--that will matter to an awful lot of families who lost their elders.

 

[Elixir]

200th? Somewhere below falling out of bed, probably. But you're disregarding the actual effects. I agree that even in the worst case scenario it [COVID-19 virus] won't matter to the human species whatsoever in the long run. But fear matters, and public panic totally matters in the short term. Those things are real. Not to be confused with the stimulus that provokes them, but real. There will be enough grandmothers lost to keep the fear alive for quite a while - probably over a year.

well "matters" obviously in a strictly pragmatic sense, i'm not denying that reality exists. i'm just saying it's totally unjustified by any conceivable metric.
but i'm also a very rational person, and i know i'm an exception in that regard. the irrationality of humans amuses the shit out of me, when it isn't disgusting me.

I just watched a short interview with a very sincere-sounding lady who believes that there is no such thing as "that virus", and that it's just another gimmick invented by Democrats to make Trump look bad. Personally, I am as revulsed by people who reject science in favor of believing Trump, as I am by Trump himself, but still ... am I to be callous to the suffering that befalls people like that lady?
Truth be told, I'd be rather conflicted if she (or her parents, aunts, uncles etc) were to suffer and/or die from refusal to treat themselves, or cause the suffering and/or death of others when they fail to isolate themselves after getting this "bad cold". Unnecessary suffering is IMHO an inherently bad thing. But perhaps culling the stupid and the credulous isn't a bad thing in the long run...

 

[Keith&Co.]

There is a 'presumptive' case in our county, now.

We don't have any tests, but apparently they were exposed?
Means i probably should not have tried all the free sample foods at the market, but i am sure all the contagious people were ransacking the toilet paper aisle.

 

[skepticalbip]

What is it with the run on toilet paper? Did I miss something like maybe this virus causing diarrhea or worse dysentery?

 

[Rhea]

What is it with the run on toilet paper? Did I miss something like maybe this virus causing diarrhea or worse dysentery?

People just don’t subscribe to the local paper any more.

 

[bilby]

What is it with the run on toilet paper? Did I miss something like maybe this virus causing diarrhea or worse dysentery?

I don't understand it myself.

We were in Coles today doing our weekly shop, and the only thing on the shelves in the toilet paper aisle were signs saying that there's a limit of one pack per customer. So it's nice to know that we could have bought one of the zero packs available.

 

[Rhea]

You guys are really seeing toilet paper shortages in your stores? I didn’t realize people were going nuts on that.

Although, accidentally I totally overstocked. Hubby sent me a quick list for the grocery store and somehow I thought he said toilet paper when he actually said facial tissue. Ooops. Now I have a butload of TP and no Kleenex.

 

[Patooka]

What is it with the run on toilet paper? Did I miss something like maybe this virus causing diarrhea or worse dysentery?

I don't understand it myself.

We were in Coles today doing our weekly shop, and the only thing on the shelves in the toilet paper aisle were signs saying that there's a limit of one pack per customer. So it's nice to know that we could have bought one of the zero packs available.

It gets better. In the next couple of weeks the registers and self-checkouts are going to have a system upgrade where it will only allow one item of the category of toilet paper go through per transaction. I suspect Woolies will have the same done as well.

 

[Politesse]

You guys are really seeing toilet paper shortages in your stores? I didn’t realize people were going nuts on that.

Although, accidentally I totally overstocked. Hubby sent me a quick list for the grocery store and somehow I thought he said toilet paper when he actually said facial tissue. Ooops. Now I have a butload of TP and no Kleenex.

Well you wouldn't want to have less than one butt-load of TP...

 

[Rhea]

Now I have a butload of TP and no Kleenex.

Well you wouldn't want to have less than one butt-load of TP...

You make a compelling point.

 

[bilby]

You guys are really seeing toilet paper shortages in your stores? I didn’t realize people were going nuts on that.

Although, accidentally I totally overstocked. Hubby sent me a quick list for the grocery store and somehow I thought he said toilet paper when he actually said facial tissue. Ooops. Now I have a butload of TP and no Kleenex.

Apparently it's a massive issue Australia-wide.

It has no effect on us - we always buy in bulk when it's half price, and still have 168 rolls in the Harry Potter cupboard (down from 288 last time we stocked up).

 

[Politesse]

I suspect what's really going on is that people are hearing on the TV that there is a massive run on TP, then going "oh shit, what if we run out of TP?" In short a classic bank run scenario only with TP rather than currency as the temporarily overvalued paper product of concern.

 

[bilby]

 

[bigfield]

I suspect what's really going on is that people are hearing on the TV that there is a massive run on TP, then going "oh shit, what if we run out of TP?" In short a classic bank run scenario only with TP rather than currency as the temporarily overvalued paper product of concern.

This is precisely what is going on, and it shows what happens when trashy TV news programs are more interested in sowing fear and outrage than they are in informing people.

It's also a demonstration of how much power the media has over people's decision-making.

 

[Keith&Co.]

I suspect what's really going on is that people are hearing on the TV that there is a massive run on TP, then going "oh shit, what if we run out of TP?" In short a classic bank run scenario only with TP rather than currency as the temporarily overvalued paper product of concern.

This is precisely what is going on, and it shows what happens when trashy TV news programs are more interested in sowing fear and outrage than they are in informing people.

It's also a demonstration of how much power the media has over people's decision-making.

No surprise to those of us that lived thru Johnny Carson accidentally creating the Great Toilet Paper Crisis.

One joke, one night, about the TP shortage that no one saw coming, he spent the rest of the week begging people not to hoard the stuff.