The Virus - Are You Affected?

[ZiprHead]

Two weeks after court scraps Safer at Home, Wisconsin sets record for new coronavirus cases and deaths

Two weeks to the day after the Wisconsin Supreme Court overturned Governor Tony Evers’ “Safer at Home” order, the state has set a one-day record for new coronavirus cases, as 642 positive cases were identified in the past 24 hours, bringing the total to 16,565 — and increasing the number of currently active cases by more than 10 percent.

Additionally, the day was the deadliest so far, as 22 people succumbed to COVID19 since this time Tuesday, bringing the total death toll to 539.

The percentage of coronavirus tests coming back positive also rose from 3.6 percent to 5.8 in the past 24 hours.

The largest local increase in new cases today comes from Milwaukee County, with 271 new cases and 21 percent of tests coming back positive.

After a few days with lower numbers, an outbreak in Racine County continues to rage, as 184 new cases were identified there, with nearly 15 percent of tests returning positive results.

 

[DrZoidberg]

and fat people. And the very many who for various reasons are at risk. And the odd random unlucky fuck who bites the dust anyway. As the number of infected goes up the rare cases go up.

Indeed. The point is, the vast, VAST majority of people that contract this virus come out of it unscathed. A small percentage will suffer mild symptoms if any at all, a still smaller percentage will experience severe symptoms that will require treatment or even hospitalization and a smaller percentage yet will die. I have yet to see the science, logic, data and reasoning that supports everyone to stay at home forever. Remember, the lockdown was all about "flattening the curve" and not overwhelming the health systems. That was achieved some time ago, why the fuck are small businesses told to stay closed while Costco, Walmart, Target etc can be open ? Why are we not allowed toplace a towel on the sand and lay down ? Why does Newsom and Garcetti behave like little dictators, giving permission to do certain activities provided we "beahve" otherwise these permissions will be withdrawn ?

You're obviously wrong. I'm not sure if you are joking? Was this an attempt at sarcasm?

The virus was already starting to run out of steam due to a lack of people to kill but because the care homes were not protected it was able to continue at a slightly slower pace.

Now you're just arguing against yourself. Yes, it's about flattening the curve. Still. It's not a one thing situation. Once it's flattened we need to keep it flat. It's not running out of steam. It's less of a problem in places like Stockholm. But the moment we relax the restrictions the shit will hit the fan again. The experts think it'll be another half a year of this.

 

[Angry Floof]

Has anyone seen the video of the guy who says "let it run its course" and kill whoever it may? I can't find it, but it's a good one. Real people, not actors. A guy says let it run its course and kill whoever, then someone asks him to choose who will die, and then his own extended family all come walking into the room. They ask him again, who do you choose for that percentage who will die? He starts to cry.

Our brains may have evolved over eons in environments of small tribes of a couple hundred, but it's not like we don't understand that all those people in the world that we don't know personally are actual humans and not the abstractions our brains tend to make them. There's no excuse.

 

[Emily Lake]

And the reality is that this virus poses very little risk to most people.

What do you consider risk? Are you only considering death?

Yes, the mortality rate for COVID is moderate, and is highly correlated with age. Unfortunately, morbidity is a completely different animal. Here are some things that might be worth consideration:

People can be contagious, spreading the illness to others, for about a week and a half before they develop any noticeable symptoms. This has two major consequences. First, it means that an infected presymptomatic person can infect a lot of other people that they come into contact with because neither they nor anyone else realizes that they're infectious. Secondly, it means that the early reports of large volumes of people being asymptomatic were overstated, and that a lot of those people who tested positive and had no symptoms later developed symptoms.

About 20% of symptomatic cases end up admitted to the hospital. Of those admitted, about a third of them end up in ICU with extreme respiratory distress. Unlike the mortality rates, admission rate is a lot less correlated with age. It turns out that the rate of admission varies between about 15% for people between 20 and 45, and about 30% for people over age 65. That's a pretty significant amount of people, especially because symptomatic cases aren't correlated with age (with the exception of children under about 10 or so being very rare to have COVID).

Symptoms for COVID can last a long time. Seasonal flu usually lasts about a week with severe symptoms for only a couple of days. It's rare for flu cases to last closer to two weeks. COVID, on the other hand, frequently has severe symptoms lasting over a week, and lingering symptoms like fatigue and trouble breathing that last three weeks. For people who are admitted, it's not uncommon for them to be in the hospital for two weeks, ICU admissions are even longer.

There's growing evidence that COVID damages internal organs, especially lungs, in ways that can have long-term effects. It's fairly common to see lung scarring from pneumonia, and COVID does the same thing. Because of the particular way that COVID attacks lung tissue, there's concern that the long-term effects might be worse than for more common forms of pneumonia. There's also suggestions that COVID (or the immune response to it, cytokine storm) damages other internal organs that weren't directly involved in the illness.

One of the most worrisome things, to me, is that getting and surviving COVID may not make you immune. Most of the strains in the coronavirus family don't confer lasting immunity. The group that is included in the seasonal common cold tend to last for less than a year. I don't recall which is which, but SARS1 and MERS only confer immunity for 18 months and about 3 years IIRC. So even if you get sick, that doesn't mean that you're safe. It's far too early to tell, but it's a definite risk for this family of viruses.

Finally, I think it's important to note that it's not just personal risk that we're talking about. Honestly, I'm not overly concerned about getting COVID myself. It would suck, and it would be expensive, and I definitely don't want to get sick... but odds are that I would survive. But it's not just my health that I put at risk when I go out in the world - it's everyone else's health as well. Infectious diseases end up being a lot like drunk driving and cigarette smoking. The general public doesn't give a damn if you injure yourself if you drive while intoxicated; the public cares about the other people who could be hurt by your negligence. The general public doesn't really care if you get lung cancer from smoking; the public cares a lot if a non-smoker who's been exposed to your second-hand smoke get cancer because of it. It's the same thing with COVID. If all were were talking about was the personal risk to oneself, I think most people would say "go do whatever man, it's your life, your decision. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes." Unfortunately, that's not the situation. It's not like you're playing Russian Roulette all by yourself, with only one round in the chamber. It's more like you're playing Russian Roulette with two revolvers, both of which only have one empty chamber, and you're pointing them randomly around a room full of people while you pull the trigger repeatedly.

 

[Emily Lake]

View attachment 27906

Yet Denmark aligns with Sweden now. Perhaps there are things that matter that aren't covered in that infographic?

I'm at a loss for why you think the attached analysis shows Sweden in a good light. It's got a much higher mortality rate than its neighbors, despite having similar or lower population density. Even if you added Denmark and Norway together to get roughly the same population total and the same population density, Sweden would still have a mortality rate that's about 3 times higher.

What metric are you considering to be evidence that Sweden has handled this well?

Okay, for clarity, I don't think any western country has handled it well. There are a few asian countries that have done a decent job of it, but pretty much the entire world is sucking right now.

 

[DrZoidberg]

View attachment 27906

Yet Denmark aligns with Sweden now. Perhaps there are things that matter that aren't covered in that infographic?

I'm at a loss for why you think the attached analysis shows Sweden in a good light. It's got a much higher mortality rate than its neighbors, despite having similar or lower population density. Even if you added Denmark and Norway together to get roughly the same population total and the same population density, Sweden would still have a mortality rate that's about 3 times higher.

What metric are you considering to be evidence that Sweden has handled this well?

Okay, for clarity, I don't think any western country has handled it well. There are a few asian countries that have done a decent job of it, but pretty much the entire world is sucking right now.

Who gives a shit about undifferentiated mortality rates? Unless you explain the patterns of each countries mortality rates you are saying nothing.

Sweden completely failed to protect their at risks. For specific reasons relating to that (and which don't apply to Denmark). So high mortality rates. But succeeded in limiting explosive spread in the general population without crippling the economy. Norway is rich. They can sit this out. Denmark, nope. With their extreme lockdown they succeeded in slowing down the spread to a crawl. But the society doesn't work like this. The state is paying giant subsidies to keep people from going bankrupt. Denmark tried a short term solution to a long term problem. In hindsight it was dumb. Sweden picked a strategy that can work long term. It was smarter, in spite of the higher mortality rates.

To sum it up, don't just stare at the numbers, find out what they are based on and the price that needed to be paid to get it.

Also, doctors don't save lives. They just postpone the inevitable for a bit. That's the mindset we need if we're to beat a pandemic. Lives don't have infinite value. At some point we need to decide exactly how much we're willing to sacrifice to prolong the life of a fat fuck who at no point in his life has been willing to make minimal sacrifices to get in shape.

 

[TSwizzle]

Now you're just arguing against yourself.

Bullshit I am.

Yes, it's about flattening the curve. Still. It's not a one thing situation. Once it's flattened we need to keep it flat.

By staying home until it goes away ? Until a vaccine is found ? Until we achieve immortality ? No one dies ever of a virus ? How flat does the curve need to be exactly before I can get a haircut, play a game of tennis or a round of golf ?

 

[Jokodo]

I'm at a loss for why you think the attached analysis shows Sweden in a good light. It's got a much higher mortality rate than its neighbors, despite having similar or lower population density. Even if you added Denmark and Norway together to get roughly the same population total and the same population density, Sweden would still have a mortality rate that's about 3 times higher.

What metric are you considering to be evidence that Sweden has handled this well?

Okay, for clarity, I don't think any western country has handled it well. There are a few asian countries that have done a decent job of it, but pretty much the entire world is sucking right now.

Who gives a shit about undifferentiated mortality rates? Unless you explain the patterns of each countries mortality rates you are saying nothing.

Sweden completely failed to protect their at risks. For specific reasons relating to that (and which don't apply to Denmark). So high mortality rates. But succeeded in limiting explosive spread in the general population without crippling the economy. <snip>

Not according to the forecast of the European Commission, or any other credible source I've seen.

Projected year-over-year growth of GDP, Sweden 2020: -6.1%
Projected year-over-year growth of GDP, Denmark 2020: -5.9 (and with a stronger projected recovery in 2021).

 

[DrZoidberg]

Also... Keep in mind that Scandinavia has socialist health care systems, ie optimally prepared for exactly this. Non-Scandivian countries propably couldn't do what we are doing without decades worth of adapting the medical system. USA's medical system is optimised for giving targeted care to individuals. But a pandemic doesn't give a shit about that. What your neighbour does matters, so communism is the way. So the numbers doesn't really translate. USA is fundamentally fucked to deal with this. On a deep level. So.. Again... You can't just stare at raw numbers outside of context

 

[TSwizzle]

This would be funny if it wasn't so utterly stupid. Listen up children;



Our tax dollars at work

 

[crazyfingers]

I'm not really effected by this too much but I know the name of some guy who will be.

In the mail delivered to my house was letter from the Massachusetts Department of Unemployment Assistance/Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. This some guy has qualified for weekly payments. But his mail is addressed to my home address. I tried calling the Department and after 45 minutes on hold was told to call a different number which promptly told me that if I want to file for unemployment go to this website and fill in the form and hung up.

I've tried a few more times to get to a person who can contact this guy. No success.

I don't want this guy to go without his money and I don't want checks to him coming to my house but I can't spend all day on the phone trying to fix this. I'll probably try again another day. Over 90 minutes on hold today is enough.

It very well might have been a fraudulent application in the first place.

It appears to be because today in the mail I got the same thing addressed to me. It tells me that my application for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance was filed on May 20 and it details how much money I get.

BUT I NEVER APPLIED for any assistance! I am employed. I called the same number I called last time but now the very first message is that if I received what appears to be a fraudulent claim notice go to the following www.mass/gov/xxx url to report it. So I reported it.

Fuck I wonder what personal data someone used. I know that a few years ago someone hacked my employer and got everyone's W2 info. I had to do all kinds of crap to put fraud alerts on things.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I'm at a loss for why you think the attached analysis shows Sweden in a good light. It's got a much higher mortality rate than its neighbors, despite having similar or lower population density. Even if you added Denmark and Norway together to get roughly the same population total and the same population density, Sweden would still have a mortality rate that's about 3 times higher.

What metric are you considering to be evidence that Sweden has handled this well?

Okay, for clarity, I don't think any western country has handled it well. There are a few asian countries that have done a decent job of it, but pretty much the entire world is sucking right now.

Who gives a shit about undifferentiated mortality rates? Unless you explain the patterns of each countries mortality rates you are saying nothing.

Sweden completely failed to protect their at risks. For specific reasons relating to that (and which don't apply to Denmark). So high mortality rates. But succeeded in limiting explosive spread in the general population without crippling the economy. <snip>

Not according to the forecast of the European Commission, or any other credible source I've seen.

Projected year-over-year growth of GDP, Sweden 2020: -6.1%
Projected year-over-year growth of GDP, Denmark 2020: -5.9 (and with a stronger projected recovery in 2021).

Denmark's economy was stronger to begin with. Sweden took an economic hit due to the refugee intake and idiotic (and expensive) policies surrounding that. Context matters.

 

[DrZoidberg]

By staying home until it goes away ? Until a vaccine is found ? Until we achieve immortality ? No one dies ever of a virus ? How flat does the curve need to be exactly before I can get a haircut, play a game of tennis or a round of golf ?

Until we limit the spread enough to prevent an explosive growth. In Scandinavia you can now do all of those three things you list. Yet, we have a partial lockdown. It's not all or nothing. There's degrees of social distancing.

I don't stay home. But instead of going to big clubs in Berlin I'm going to smaller parties in Copenhagen with max 10 people. It's a pretty minor sacrifice imho.

 

[Jokodo]

Not according to the forecast of the European Commission, or any other credible source I've seen.

Projected year-over-year growth of GDP, Sweden 2020: -6.1%
Projected year-over-year growth of GDP, Denmark 2020: -5.9 (and with a stronger projected recovery in 2021).

Denmark's economy was stronger to begin with. Sweden took an economic hit due to the refugee intake and idiotic (and expensive) policies surrounding that. Context matters.

That's not context, that's an ad hoc excuse for a false claim, that Sweden managed without crippling its economy. Those are not absolute figures for unemployment or prett capita GDP or whathaveyou, those are relative figures, growth/ decline.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Not according to the forecast of the European Commission, or any other credible source I've seen.

Projected year-over-year growth of GDP, Sweden 2020: -6.1%
Projected year-over-year growth of GDP, Denmark 2020: -5.9 (and with a stronger projected recovery in 2021).

Denmark's economy was stronger to begin with. Sweden took an economic hit due to the refugee intake and idiotic (and expensive) policies surrounding that. Context matters.

That's not context, that's an ad hoc excuse for a false claim, that Sweden managed without crippling its economy. Those are not absolute figures for unemployment or prett capita GDP or whathaveyou, those are relative figures, growth/ decline.

Yes, Sweden was already taking a downward hit. It was on the way down when Corona hit. Denmark was not.

Economies are complicated things. Things hang together. Economies hang together. Things have unexpected consequences. A lockdown in Denmark has an impact on the Swedish economy as well.

You can call that an ad hoc excuse for a false claim if you like. But rejecting context will just make you clueless at the end of the day.

 

[Jokodo]

That's not context, that's an ad hoc excuse for a false claim, that Sweden managed without crippling its economy. Those are not absolute figures for unemployment or prett capita GDP or whathaveyou, those are relative figures, growth/ decline.

Yes, Sweden was already taking a downward hit. It was on the way down when Corona hit. Denmark was not.

Economies are complicated things. Things hang together. Economies hang together. Things have unexpected consequences. A lockdown in Denmark has an impact on the Swedish economy as well.

You can call that an ad hoc excuse for a false claim if you like. But rejecting context will just make you clueless at the end of the day.

Well you did say, and that's a literal quote: "[Sweden] succeeded in limiting explosive spread in the general population without crippling the economy."

You did not say "with relatively minor harm to the economy" or "without harming the economy that was already in shambles more than is strictly necessary".

I'm not denying that economies are complicated things and there are (always) other contributing factors to consider. You're denying the meaning of your own words.

What's so hard about admitting you misspoke?

 

[DrZoidberg]

That's not context, that's an ad hoc excuse for a false claim, that Sweden managed without crippling its economy. Those are not absolute figures for unemployment or prett capita GDP or whathaveyou, those are relative figures, growth/ decline.

Yes, Sweden was already taking a downward hit. It was on the way down when Corona hit. Denmark was not.

Economies are complicated things. Things hang together. Economies hang together. Things have unexpected consequences. A lockdown in Denmark has an impact on the Swedish economy as well.

You can call that an ad hoc excuse for a false claim if you like. But rejecting context will just make you clueless at the end of the day.

Well you did say, and that's a literal quote: "[Sweden] succeeded in limiting explosive spread in the general population without crippling the economy."

You did not say "with relatively minor harm to the economy" or "without harming the economy that was already in shambles more than is strictly necessary".

I'm not denying that economies are complicated things and there are (always) other contributing factors to consider. You're denying the meaning of your own words.

What's so hard about admitting you misspoke?

It's not a question of the contraction so far. It's a question of future economic sustainability. Sweden's degree of lockdown was and is sustainable. They can keep this level going indefinitely. Denmarks degree of lockdown was (until this monday) cripling. Short term wealthy nations can live off capital. But as soon as that capital dries up = fucked. Denmark was rapidly marching towards a cliff. Your numbers hide this fact.

I've noticed that you love metrics and drawing strong conclusions based on the metrics alone. Context matters. And you repeatedly wave the context away. I haven't forgotten your cocksure affirmation that cultural differences don't matter when it comes to the spread of Coronavirus. You were staring at just the numbers when making that claim. This seems to be similar.

 

[Jokodo]

Well you did say, and that's a literal quote: "[Sweden] succeeded in limiting explosive spread in the general population without crippling the economy."

You did not say "with relatively minor harm to the economy" or "without harming the economy that was already in shambles more than is strictly necessary".

I'm not denying that economies are complicated things and there are (always) other contributing factors to consider. You're denying the meaning of your own words.

What's so hard about admitting you misspoke?

It's not a question of the contraction so far. It's a question of future economic sustainability. Sweden's degree of lockdown was and is sustainable. They can keep this level going indefinitely. Denmarks degree of lockdown was (until this monday) cripling. Short term wealthy nations can live off capital. But as soon as that capital dries up = fucked. Denmark was rapidly marching towards a cliff. Your numbers hide this fact.

My numbers aren't mine but the European Commission's, and they don't talk about the contraction so far but rather they're projected figures for all of 2020 and 2021.

I've noticed that you love metrics and drawing strong conclusions based on the metrics alone.

Incorrect. You claimed Sweden avoided crippling their economy, a claim that's not borne out by anyone's protections. Now maybe you have done divinely revealed knowledge about how Sweden is going to bloom shortly and rye EC is all wrong in their predictions, I don't know. Sorry of that, however, we have to conclude your claim is probably false, though it's too early to know for sure if course.

Context matters. And you repeatedly wave the context away. I haven't forgotten your cocksure affirmation that cultural differences don't matter when it comes to the spread of Coronavirus. You were staring at just the numbers when making that claim. This seems to be similar.

Of course cultural differences matter. In a culture where it's customary to cross the street only to hug your neighbour and kiss them three times in the cheeks, the virus will have an easier time spreading than where it's customary to pretend you didn't see them, and thus R0 prior to any measures will be higher. I don't remember disputing that. Ernest I disputed was your attempt to give western governments a free pass for waiting so long before reacting, claiming their hands were tied because "culture", which is a lazy excuse if ever I saw one.

I also doubt someone who can't be bothered to differentiate between absolute and relative figures or between current and projected growth is qualified to lecture others about context.

 

[DrZoidberg]

My numbers aren't mine but the European Commission's, and they don't talk about the contraction so far but rather they're projected figures for all of 2020 and 2021.

So what? Those numbers do not include context.

I've noticed that you love metrics and drawing strong conclusions based on the metrics alone.

Incorrect. You claimed Sweden avoided crippling their economy, a claim that's not borne out by anyone's protections. Now maybe you have done divinely revealed knowledge about how Sweden is going to bloom shortly and rye EC is all wrong in their predictions, I don't know.

Having followed the news about Sweden, since I until recently lived there and still have property there, I am just up to date with what is going on in the country. Doing one's homework is not miraculous nor magic. You should perhaps try that instead of talking about things you only have a superficial knowledge about?

I also doubt someone who can't be bothered to differentiate between absolute and relative figures or between current and projected growth is qualified to lecture others about context.

Lol

 

[TSwizzle]

By staying home until it goes away ? Until a vaccine is found ? Until we achieve immortality ? No one dies ever of a virus ? How flat does the curve need to be exactly before I can get a haircut, play a game of tennis or a round of golf ?

Until we limit the spread enough to prevent an explosive growth.

With the vast, VAST majority of people who contract this virus recovering unscathed etc, this is not necessary.