The Virus - Are You Affected?

[TSwizzle]

We didn't ask what was "fine". What is not fine? When is it time to start coordinating a response?

When can a lockdown be lifted, when we reach immortality ? When we have a vaccine for all virus known to cause harm ? When ? When may we leave the house sir ?

I want your answer to that question. What kind of mortality justifies a lockdown?

Not the kind we are experiencing now as it turns out.

 

[Politesse]

I want your answer to that question. What kind of mortality justifies a lockdown?

Not the kind we are experiencing now as it turns out.

Why is it so hard to answer the question straight? You're acting like your opinion weighs more than that of professional epidemiologists, but you're too chicken to even tell us what it is? How are we supposed to design social policies based on nothing but dodges and evasions?

 

[bilby]

I want your answer to that question. What kind of mortality justifies a lockdown?

Not the kind we are experiencing now as it turns out.

Why is it so hard to answer the question straight? You're acting like your opinion weighs more than that of professional epidemiologists, but you're too chicken to even tell us what it is? How are we supposed to design social policies based on nothing but dodges and evasions?

He has nothing but dodges and evasions. He appears to labour under the delusion that automatically taking the opposite stance to that of his political opponents constitutes "thinking for himself". But as reason wasn't a component in the reaching of his opinions, he cannot possibly give reasons for those opinions.

It's pretty obvious from his evasiveness that his reason is simply 'People I dislike are saying a lockdown is necessary, therefore a lockdown isn't necessary'. But I doubt he even admits that to himself, much less to anyone else.

 

[TSwizzle]

I want your answer to that question. What kind of mortality justifies a lockdown?

Not the kind we are experiencing now as it turns out.

Why is it so hard to answer the question straight? You're acting like your opinion weighs more than that of professional epidemiologists, but you're too chicken to even tell us what it is? How are we supposed to design social policies based on nothing but dodges and evasions?

The question was answered a few posts ago but you design policies around reality. And the reality is that this virus poses very little risk to most people. Why are we still not allowed to place a towel on the sand and lie down at the beach? why is every second parking spot at the beach parking lots blocked, are cars going to get the virus ? What is the science or data behind these and other bizarre decrees ?

 

[DrZoidberg]

So aparently Sweden was the way to do it.

Numbers are yesterday's (2020-05-26) from worldometer, except the last column which I calculated. They probably include some delayed registrations, but even the 7-day average lands them pretty much at the top (Spain's numbers are also unusually high for recent days/weeks so they probably include corrections too):

View attachment 27903

Those numbers mean nothing. There's too many variables for it to be meaningful to just stare at a couple of simple metrics.

I also know that if doctors in Nicaragua would report of Covid-19 case they will get executed by the secret police. So their count is complete bollocks.

So yeah... not sure why you think those numbers matter?

 

[DrZoidberg]

View attachment 27906

Yet Denmark aligns with Sweden now. Perhaps there are things that matter that aren't covered in that infographic?

 

[DrZoidberg]

I'm back to work now. Denmark has now aligned itself with Sweden and has the same rules. They've opened the border between Sweden and Denmark. Officially you need a reason to enter Denmark from Sweden. But when I crossed they verified nothing of what I said. Other friends have had similar experiences. Even people who were just straight up lying to get over the border. And had not bothered to even falsify a good story.

So aparently Sweden was the way to do it.

Sweden is carrying on as they always have.

Once this is all over, it will be obvious that a prolonged lockdown was not necessary.

No. That's not at all what it proves. There's degrees of lockdown. Sweden is not an open country free from lockdown. They've locked down plenty. They've just focused on the high risk behaviours and locked that down. And kept the rest of society going, pretty much as usual.

Sweden is often held up as an example of a country that is completely open. But that's not accurate at all. Sweden not being in lockdown is as much a lie as Sweden being the rape capital of Europe or that it's full of Islamic no-go zones. Sweden just seems to be a country people love to make myths out of, and completely ignore what the country is actually doing.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I was in Sweden this morning. My doctor is in Malmö. I live in Copenhagen. Lucky I had no pressing needs until the border opened last week.

With some minor inconvenience, it was really smooth travelling across the border. Scandinavians know how to design a beaurocracy with minor annoyances for it's citizens.

 

[Jokodo]

So aparently Sweden was the way to do it.

Numbers are yesterday's (2020-05-26) from worldometer, except the last column which I calculated. They probably include some delayed registrations, but even the 7-day average lands them pretty much at the top (Spain's numbers are also unusually high for recent days/weeks so they probably include corrections too):

View attachment 27903

Those numbers mean nothing. There's too many variables for it to be meaningful to just stare at a couple of simple metrics.

I also know that if doctors in Nicaragua would report of Covid-19 case they will get executed by the secret police. So their count is complete bollocks.

That may be so, but there's over 200 countries and territories in the world that are neither Sweden nor Nicaragua. Are you insinuating they all suppress reporting thre same way Nicaragua does?

So yeah... not sure why you think those numbers matter?

They may be poor numbers, but do you have better ones?

 

[DrZoidberg]

That may be so, but there's over 200 countries and territories in the world that are neither Sweden nor Nicaragua. Are you insinuating they all suppress reporting thre same way Nicaragua does?

Nope. Never suggested it.

So yeah... not sure why you think those numbers matter?

They may be poor numbers, but do you have better ones?

Perhaps numbers that come with context describing what is happening? At this point, just raw numbers are pretty worthless.

For example, in the latest episode on TWIV, it was revealed that the US president had ordered the CDC to conflate the numbers for anti-body tests as well as swab tests (ie, a test for if have you now an active infection and are shedding live virus, and a test to see if you have ever had the virus). The reason is to push up the number of total tested. The problem is of course that once conflated the numbers are completely worthless. It's just magic with numbers. It's a scandal in the infectious disease community. Scientists are angry at the head of the CDC that he didn't tell Trump to go and fuck himself, when Trump made the request. But failing to realise that being the head of the CDC is not an honorary position, it's a political position. He's a presidential puppet. But we're so overwhelmed by fake news that this true news scandal is completely burried in the barrage of bullshit out there. That's why it's important to try not to add to the confusion by trying to spread your own personal pet theory. If the CDC is acting to add to the bullshit in the world, we really need to be on our toes now.

edit:

I agree that it would be handy to have simple metrics that can give a good overview of what it happening. But we don't have that. There's such massive discrepancies in how testing is done, and how they are collected that simple comparisons will always be misleading.

 

[ZiprHead]

View attachment 27906

Yet Denmark aligns with Sweden now. Perhaps there are things that matter that aren't covered in that infographic?

What it shows is your constant dick-sucking of Sweden is unwarranted.

 

[TSwizzle]

I'm back to work now. Denmark has now aligned itself with Sweden and has the same rules. They've opened the border between Sweden and Denmark. Officially you need a reason to enter Denmark from Sweden. But when I crossed they verified nothing of what I said. Other friends have had similar experiences. Even people who were just straight up lying to get over the border. And had not bothered to even falsify a good story.

So aparently Sweden was the way to do it.

Sweden is carrying on as they always have.

Once this is all over, it will be obvious that a prolonged lockdown was not necessary.

No. That's not at all what it proves.

It is starting to show that in the long run, lockdown has had minimal effect. It will likely show that the lockdown has been counter productive.

Sweden is not an open country free from lockdown.

I never said it was.

Sweden is often held up as an example of a country that is completely open. {snip irrelevant lecture}.

Not by me so who is the lecture aimed at ?

 

[DrZoidberg]

No. That's not at all what it proves.

It is starting to show that in the long run, lockdown has had minimal effect. It will likely show that the lockdown has been counter productive.

Lockdown has massive effect. It's very effective. But it also kills the economy. If it's a short term thing and we can go into lockdown and just kill it. Which we did with SARS and MERS. Great. But We can't do that with Covid-19. It spreads too effectively. By now we know we're going to be stuck with Covid-19 for a long time. If killing the disease through lockdown is not an option and killing the economy is not an option, we're going to have to find a balance between these two extremes. We have to decide just how much pain (ie death) we're willing to take in order to keep the economy going.

Doing nothing leads to exponential growth and very rapidly to a situation with people dying in the streets. See Italy, Brazil, Nicaragua, New York etc. The moment these countries locked down people stopped dropping dead like flies. So clearly there's some sort of causal effect between locking down and saving lives. So doing nothing is not an option either. Well... it is. But it's a bad option. Again... we have to find the sweet spot.

 

[DrZoidberg]

View attachment 27906

Yet Denmark aligns with Sweden now. Perhaps there are things that matter that aren't covered in that infographic?

What it shows is your constant dick-sucking of Sweden is unwarranted.

It does?

 

[TSwizzle]

No. That's not at all what it proves.

It is starting to show that in the long run, lockdown has had minimal effect. It will likely show that the lockdown has been counter productive.

Doing nothing leads to exponential growth and very rapidly to a situation with people dying in the streets.

Dying in the streets ? FFS, it's people in care homes that are dying.

The moment these countries locked down people stopped dropping dead like flies.

No they didn't and people in care homes are still dying.

So clearly there's some sort of causal effect between locking down and saving lives. So doing nothing is not an option either. Well... it is. But it's a bad option. Again... we have to find the sweet spot.

You don't half spout some shite. Are you on drugs again ?

 

[DrZoidberg]

Doing nothing leads to exponential growth and very rapidly to a situation with people dying in the streets.

Dying in the streets ? FFS, it's people in care homes that are dying.

and fat people. And the very many who for various reasons are at risk. And the odd random unlucky fuck who bites the dust anyway. As the number of infected goes up the rare cases go up.

The moment these countries locked down people stopped dropping dead like flies.

No they didn't and people in care homes are still dying.

You're obviously wrong. I'm not sure if you are joking? Was this an attempt at sarcasm?

 

[atrib]

I want your answer to that question. What kind of mortality justifies a lockdown?

Not the kind we are experiencing now as it turns out.

Why is it so hard to answer the question straight? You're acting like your opinion weighs more than that of professional epidemiologists, but you're too chicken to even tell us what it is? How are we supposed to design social policies based on nothing but dodges and evasions?

His answer is to let the pandemic run unchecked, no matter how many lives it takes. That is the simple answer.

 

[TSwizzle]

and fat people. And the very many who for various reasons are at risk. And the odd random unlucky fuck who bites the dust anyway. As the number of infected goes up the rare cases go up.

Indeed. The point is, the vast, VAST majority of people that contract this virus come out of it unscathed. A small percentage will suffer mild symptoms if any at all, a still smaller percentage will experience severe symptoms that will require treatment or even hospitalization and a smaller percentage yet will die. I have yet to see the science, logic, data and reasoning that supports everyone to stay at home forever. Remember, the lockdown was all about "flattening the curve" and not overwhelming the health systems. That was achieved some time ago, why the fuck are small businesses told to stay closed while Costco, Walmart, Target etc can be open ? Why are we not allowed toplace a towel on the sand and lay down ? Why does Newsom and Garcetti behave like little dictators, giving permission to do certain activities provided we "beahve" otherwise these permissions will be withdrawn ?

You're obviously wrong. I'm not sure if you are joking? Was this an attempt at sarcasm?

The virus was already starting to run out of steam due to a lack of people to kill but because the care homes were not protected it was able to continue at a slightly slower pace.

 

[Elixir]

I want your answer to that question. What kind of mortality justifies a lockdown?

Not the kind we are experiencing now as it turns out.

Why is it so hard to answer the question straight? You're acting like your opinion weighs more than that of professional epidemiologists, but you're too chicken to even tell us what it is? How are we supposed to design social policies based on nothing but dodges and evasions?

Libberpublicans don't do straight answers. They're actually ashamed of their own opinions. Which they should be. So in that respect, we should just let their smarmy, mealy-mouthed answers stand on their own as symbols of the kind of dishonesty that has brought this country from prosperity to the brink of complete collapse in three years.

 

[Politesse]

Why is it so hard to answer the question straight? You're acting like your opinion weighs more than that of professional epidemiologists, but you're too chicken to even tell us what it is? How are we supposed to design social policies based on nothing but dodges and evasions?

His answer is to let the pandemic run unchecked, no matter how many lives it takes. That is the simple answer.

Well, he did clarify that he thought "normal, voluntary measures" would be an appropriate response, so not unchecked. Just, not a very clear recommendation either, especially since he seems to disagree with scientific consensus as to what the "normal" response to an epidemic should in fact be.