The World-O-Meter Thread

[Jimmy Higgins]

Highest 7-day average since May 12, and no sign of leveling off

View attachment 30497

Highest numbers ever, 2½ times any previous "peak". Some signs of starting to level off... at least for now. It will probably show another rapid increase post-holidays.

Looks like I did see the settling trend after all early on. Means we are about 2 to 3 weeks out from the peak in deaths. Of course, Thanksgiving and the stupid fucking Americans will likely reverse the settling trend back into a mountain, making indoor Xmas a pipe dream for those who live where it gets cold. A good ole, "Fuck off and die" to each one of them. .

 

[bilby]

The investors jumping out of windows thing in 1929 is a myth.

Speaking of myths and pandemics--I ran into an interesting one recently. The black death wasn't spread by rats. Rather, the culprit was lice--living on people, not on rats.

Wasn't it fleas?

Nobody knows.

The 'Black Death' of the mid-seventeenth century was almost certainly Bubonic Plague, spread by the fleas of the black rat.

But the earlier, and much more severe pandemic of the 1340s, also known today as the Black Death, is less clear. It was known at the time by many names, most commonly in England 'Blue Fever', which might possibly hint at Typhus, which is spread by lice.

That said, the evidence is sketchy at best for any diagnosis at such a distant time in the past; The Blue Fever might have been any of a number of diseases, and it was fashionable until recently to ascribe it to Bubonic Plague, and to style it 'Black Death'. Which it may have been. It's not uncommon for pandemic disease to recur every few centuries, each time less deadly than the last, and the 1340s and 1660s European pandemics fit into a pattern of recurring presumed Bubonic Plague outbreaks, the more recent of which are almost certainly correctly diagnosed. But there's really not enough evidence for a definitive diagnosis of any medieval 'plague' - contemporary accounts are patchy, and focus on symptoms that fit with the hypotheses that disease is an imbalance of the four humours; or of astrological origin; or due to miasmas; curses; witchcraft; or divine retribution, or any combination of these debunked ideas.

After four centuries, it's very hard to accurately diagnose a disease, or identify its vectors. After six centuries, it's practically impossible.

Pick whatever hypothesis suits you. Few of them have sufficient evidence to be particularly likely, but then, few have sufficient evidence to be definitively ruled out, so nobody's able to tell you you're wrong.

Certainly it would be a brave position to describe any of them as a 'myth'.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

We know very little for certain about the "Black Death" - which was likely many different antique diseases borrowing the same reputation - or its transmission.

They were looking at the transmission patterns--consistent with lice, not consistent with fleas.

The investors jumping out of windows thing in 1929 is a myth.

Speaking of myths and pandemics--I ran into an interesting one recently. The black death wasn't spread by rats. Rather, the culprit was lice--living on people, not on rats.

Wasn't it fleas?

It's long been thought to be fleas on rats, but the transmission pattern doesn't support that.

 

[Elixir]

So

Highest 7-day average since May 12, and no sign of leveling off

View attachment 30497

Highest numbers ever, 2½ times any previous "peak". Some signs of starting to level off... at least for now. It will probably show another rapid increase post-holidays.

Looks like I did see the settling trend after all early on. Means we are about 2 to 3 weeks out from the peak in deaths. Of course, Thanksgiving and the stupid fucking Americans will likely reverse the settling trend back into a mountain, making indoor Xmas a pipe dream for those who live where it gets cold. A good ole, "Fuck off and die" to each one of them. .

Yep, about what I expect to see. Also, things that I have read about the distribution systems would imply that we will not see a real decrease until spring. That is of course, unless the idiots to whom you refer above change their general behavior.
I hate to admit it but Derek’s herd immunity might come into effect before the vaccines do, at least in the US.

Also - Do fleas have lice?

 

[bilby]

So

Highest 7-day average since May 12, and no sign of leveling off

View attachment 30497

Highest numbers ever, 2½ times any previous "peak". Some signs of starting to level off... at least for now. It will probably show another rapid increase post-holidays.

Looks like I did see the settling trend after all early on. Means we are about 2 to 3 weeks out from the peak in deaths. Of course, Thanksgiving and the stupid fucking Americans will likely reverse the settling trend back into a mountain, making indoor Xmas a pipe dream for those who live where it gets cold. A good ole, "Fuck off and die" to each one of them. .

Yep, about what I expect to see. Also, things that I have read about the distribution systems would imply that we will not see a real decrease until spring. That is of course, unless the idiots to whom you refer above change their general behavior.
I hate to admit it but Derek’s herd immunity might come into effect before the vaccines do, at least in the US.

Also - Do fleas have lice?

Great fleas have little fleas, upon their backs to bite 'em,
And little fleas have lesser fleas, and so ad infinitum.
And the great fleas themselves, in turn, have greater fleas to go on;
While these again have greater still, and greater still, and so on.

- Augustus De Morgan, after Jonathan Swift.

 

[Elixir]

Do fleas have lice?

Great fleas have little fleas, upon their backs to bite 'em,
And little fleas have lesser fleas, and so ad infinitum.
And the great fleas themselves, in turn, have greater fleas to go on;
While these again have greater still, and greater still, and so on.

- Augustus De Morgan, after Jonathan Swift.

Reps. It's about time I got a straightforward answer to a question around here!

 

[Artemus]

New record in number of deaths reported in a day. The number is so high that the record will hold for a long time. At least until tomorrow. (Cases were only second highest yet.)

 

[marc]

New record in number of deaths reported in a day. The number so high that the record will hold for a long time. At least until tomorrow. (Cases were only second highest yet.)

Just a little higher and we will have 9/11 level casualties each day.

 

[Shadowy Man]

New record in number of deaths reported in a day. The number so high that the record will hold for a long time. At least until tomorrow. (Cases were only second highest yet.)

Just a little higher and we will have 9/11 level casualties each day.

Once we hit Benghazi level casualties each day the Republicans will start investigating what went wrong.

 

[Derec]

New record in number of deaths reported in a day. The number is so high that the record will hold for a long time. At least until tomorrow. (Cases were only second highest yet.)

I would not put too much stock in today's numbers, as much of it is surely about still catching up from the Thanksgiving weekend. In general daily numbers are not a very good indicator as there is a lot of fluctuation in those anyway, and even more so now. Next week should give us a better indication whether there is a significant Thanksgiving spike and if so, how big.

 

[Derec]

Yep, about what I expect to see. Also, things that I have read about the distribution systems would imply that we will not see a real decrease until spring. That is of course, unless the idiots to whom you refer above change their general behavior.

Immunizing 24 million health care workers will happen in December or early January. More 10s of millions should come in January.
Health care workers are also people with families and lives, but they are also more likely to come in contact with COVID. So immunizing them will not only protect our health care system, but also help slow down the spread. Certainly more than immunizing 24 million random people.

I hate to admit it but Derek’s herd immunity might come into effect before the vaccines do, at least in the US.

Happy Talk?

 

[Derec]

Looks like I did see the settling trend after all early on. Means we are about 2 to 3 weeks out from the peak in deaths. Of course, Thanksgiving and the stupid fucking Americans will likely reverse the settling trend back into a mountain, making indoor Xmas a pipe dream for those who live where it gets cold. A good ole, "Fuck off and die" to each one of them. .

We should be quite a ways down the downslope by Xmas. Less than 120k/d (7 day avg.) probably. Maybe even less than 100k.

 

[Derec]

For many people, a car is a prerequisite for employment. If you sold your car to buy food, a month later you would not only be back to having no food, but would now be in a situation where your options to earn any more food money were sharply curtailed.

True. And that is especially the case in parts of the country that are more car-dependent, like Atlanta.
At the same time, there are a lot of people who own too much car. They have to have that Beamer or Merc or Caddy or at least, especially popular in the South, a full size pick up truck even if they nothing to pick up. And they will buy vehicles like this even their budget is tight to a point that a brake job breaks the bank.

I expect most of them have smartphones, for much the same reason.

Smart phones are hardly a luxury these days, but like with cars, there is a huge spread between the low-end and high-end of the market.

 

[Derec]

I saw the mayor of Houston TX on TV yesterday holding back tears. They were handing out food, including turkeys. But they couldn't give away all the turkeys because people either didn't have kitchens, or didn't have the gas or electricity to cook them.

SNAP will take care of the basics. It's one thing to go hungry, another not to have a Thanksgiving dinner with all the fixin's. That's not "going hungry" ...

What is amazing to me is that people don't realize that sitting in your car for hours will end up costing you more than the value of the free food.
Atlanta filmmaker Tyler Perry had a food giveaway in Atlanta too and cars were lined up for miles. Don't these people realize that idling their cars for hours will cost them more than the free food and $25 gift card they may get form Winston Jerome?

The amazing thing (to me) is that they all have cars.
Maybe edible cars are the solution?

 

[Derec]

On what? Your "most likely" scenario? I'll take some of that!

Deal! Let's say an even $100.

On one hand, yeah, I might have a more dire view than reality will support in the end.
On the other, I refer you to your mid-July thesis that we were approaching "the peak" after which we would see a steady decline.

And we had that, for a while. Until the hayseeds in rural counties fucked us up again.

You said there was no evidence for the subsequent peak that I predicted.

I also said I could not exclude it.

The main reason is that the distribution and administration is a difficult task that Donald Trump is doing everything he can to sabotage so he can say he invented the vaccine and Biden fucked it up. Yeah, we will "have" that many doses - somewhere. But we will not "have administered" that many doses, let alone the 2 doses per person some versions require.

Both of the mRNA vaccines ready for approval are . I think military and the states will handle the distribution. Administration will be handled locally. Since health care workers are first in line, it makes sense that that health centers will handle administration.

will that "rapid increase" come from?

Millions of people traveling, eating and otherwise gathering indoors and in close proximity to each other.
Again, maybe I have a distorted view. Around here we have a lot of Republican conservotards who are actively flaunting their disbelief that there is even a pandemic going on, thanks to Donald and his media enablers.

Oh, there are a ton of 'tards around here too. Not all of the conservative variety though.

And that's the point. People have been eating indoors, going to bars and crowded night clubs for months now. A few hours of Thanksgiving dinners will likely not make for a 'rapid increase' type of spike. But we will see within the next few days.

The end of week stats should be more reliably indicative. This coming week's early data might still be inflated by the 20 states that didn't report on Thanksgiving. If there is going to be another steep rise, it won't start until the following week at earliest.

Actually you are right. Thanksgiving weekend saw a big slump in reporting.

There's still a shortage of testing capability, and as hospitalizations are at record highs, if there is a huge spike testing will be prioritized toward people showing symptoms. So the ratio of actual vs reported new cases could go up dramatically (now estimated by CDC as "possibly as high as" 8:1).

Probably too high a ratio. Probably more like 5x at the high end, esp. early in the pandemic. That's why NY still has low confirmed cumulative cases per 1,000,000.

 

[Elixir]

Deal! Let's say an even $100.

Okay then - just need to agree on the specifics - how many and which days figure into the average?

And we had that, for a while. Until the hayseeds in rural counties fucked us up again.

Yes, as predicted (not by you).

You said there was no evidence for the subsequent peak that I predicted.

I also said I could not exclude it.

So bold.

The main reason is that the distribution and administration is a difficult task that Donald Trump is doing everything he can to sabotage so he can say he invented the vaccine and Biden fucked it up. Yeah, we will "have" that many doses - somewhere. But we will not "have administered" that many doses, let alone the 2 doses per person some versions require.

Both of the mRNA vaccines ready for approval are . I think military and the states will handle the distribution. Administration will be handled locally. Since health care workers are first in line, it makes sense that that health centers will handle administration.

The Pfizer version needs storage at -85 C (~ -118F?). I don't believe the military currently has a lot of that capability.

will that "rapid increase" come from?

Millions of people traveling, eating and otherwise gathering indoors and in close proximity to each other.
Again, maybe I have a distorted view. Around here we have a lot of Republican conservotards who are actively flaunting their disbelief that there is even a pandemic going on, thanks to Donald and his media enablers.

Oh, there are a ton of 'tards around here too. Not all of the conservative variety though.

It's not an exclusive club, it' just happens to be dominated by trumpsters (around here).

And that's the point. People have been eating indoors, going to bars and crowded night clubs for months now. A few hours of Thanksgiving dinners will likely not make for a 'rapid increase' type of spike. But we will see within the next few days.

A few hours confined in cars or on planes, at indoor meals - there just might be good reason that the "experts" are confidently predicting another spike in the next couple of weeks, and yet another after Xmas.

The end of week stats should be more reliably indicative. This coming week's early data might still be inflated by the 20 states that didn't report on Thanksgiving. If there is going to be another steep rise, it won't start until the following week at earliest.

Actually you are right. Thanksgiving weekend saw a big slump in reporting.

Right.

There's still a shortage of testing capability, and as hospitalizations are at record highs, if there is a huge spike testing will be prioritized toward people showing symptoms. So the ratio of actual vs reported new cases could go up dramatically (now estimated by CDC as "possibly as high as" 8:1).

Probably too high a ratio. Probably more like 5x at the high end, esp. early in the pandemic. That's why NY still has low confirmed cumulative cases per 1,000,000.

NY is still top 2 for deaths/million. As you know most of those occurred early on, when they also led in cases/m.
Now they're in the bottom half of all States for cumulative cases/m, which most "experts" put down to the fact that they took the most extreme lockdown measures earliest and didn't relax those measure when cases plateaued like so many others did.

 

[Artemus]

New record in number of deaths reported in a day. The number is so high that the record will hold for a long time. At least until tomorrow. (Cases were only second highest yet.)

I would not put too much stock in today's numbers, as much of it is surely about still catching up from the Thanksgiving weekend. In general daily numbers are not a very good indicator as there is a lot of fluctuation in those anyway, and even more so now. Next week should give us a better indication whether there is a significant Thanksgiving spike and if so, how big.

New records in both cases and fatalities today. This is exponential growth, not catching up.

 

[Derec]

New records in both cases and fatalities today. This is exponential growth, not catching up.

How do you figure it's "exponential growth". The graph shows an undulation, which is consistent with catching up from Thanksgiving. I expect tomorrow's numbers will be lower for that reason.

 

[Derec]

Okay then - just need to agree on the specifics - how many and which days figure into the average?

It would be the 7 day average for 4/4/2021 using Worldometer numbers. With 7 day average turned on, you can hover over the day to get the exact number for the average. You don't have to calculate it manually.

Yes, as predicted (not by you).

Errare humanum est.

The Pfizer version needs storage at -85 C (~ -118F?). I don't believe the military currently has a lot of that capability.

-85°C is not that cold, comparatively speaking. Liquid nitrogen boils at -196°C and people use it to make ice cream. CO₂ sublimates just above that temperature (-78.5°C) but you can buy dry ice for cheap at a grocery store.
-85°C would be a problem in remote areas of India or South America or something with bad roads and the like, but it's not really a problem in the US. It's not like it has to be kept cool at temperatures used to keep MRI magnets superconducting or anything.

It's not an exclusive club, it' just happens to be dominated by trumpsters (around here).

We have our share of idiot Trumpsters, but most people seem to be reasonable mask-wise (except in night clubs, which is idiotic!) That is probably why metro Atlanta and Georgia are doing relatively well.

A few hours confined in cars or on planes,

Cars are not really a risk as long as you only travel from people in your bubble. Planes/airports are a risk, but people have been travelling by air for months. Same with eating indoors. At least backyard football is an outdoor activity.
I understand Thanksgiving travelling is added risk. I would not travel right now, that's sure. But it is not orders of magnitude greater concentration of these risky activates than what's been going on before Thanksgiving. Last Wednesday, just over a million people flew commercial. This Wednesday? 630k. Wednesday before? 700k. So people travelled more, but not as much as you'd think giving all the predictions of doom.

at indoor meals - there just might be good reason that the "experts" are confidently predicting another spike in the next couple of weeks, and yet another after Xmas.

We shall see. I think they are neglecting the saturation from the SIR model, but again we shall see. If cases keep climbing next week, then you are right because then Thanksgiving catchup will not explain it, it will be a real Thanksgiving surge.

NY is still top 2 for deaths/million. As you know most of those occurred early on, when they also led in cases/m.

Yes, but early on there was very little testing, so their case numbers were lower than they should have been.

Now they're in the bottom half of all States for cumulative cases/m, which most "experts" put down to the fact that they took the most extreme lockdown measures earliest and didn't relax those measure when cases plateaued like so many others did.

I put it down to early on there being very little testing. Antibody surveys tell a different picture.

 

[Elixir]

It would be the 7 day average for 4/4/2021 using Worldometer numbers.

Okay. You're on. I find it a little unsavory to be betting on this, but I'll go ahead with it and trust you to remit if that 7 day average is over 15K on 4/4/21.
If the numbers are below - or even near - 15k/day new cases, I will be doing ... very well, and will not mind sending you a c-note!

The Pfizer version needs storage at -85 C (~ -118F?). I don't believe the military currently has a lot of that capability.

-85°C is not that cold, comparatively speaking. Liquid nitrogen boils at -196°C and people use it to make ice cream.

Vaccines are not ice cream. You can store ice cream indefinitely at 10F.

It's not an exclusive club, it' just happens to be dominated by trumpsters (around here).

We have our share of idiot Trumpsters, but most people seem to be reasonable mask-wise (except in night clubs, which is idiotic!) That is probably why metro Atlanta and Georgia are doing relatively well.

Yeah, Atlanta is a hotbed of pinko commie socialist Democratz!

A few hours confined in cars or on planes,

...it is not orders of magnitude greater concentration of these risky activates than what's been going on before Thanksgiving.

The numbers over then next 15-20 days will tell if that is the case.

Antibody surveys tell a different picture.

Citation/link? I'd REALLY like to see those surveys.