The World-O-Meter Thread

[Derec]

Still curious, Derec - Do you have a reputable data analytics source that agrees with the <15/day projection, or did you do all the epidemiological mathematics yourself to get to that conclusion?

Asked and answered.

Again, regarding vaccines ... on December 15th Dr. Fauci speculated that we could see some herd immunity by late March or early April. Since then he has modified his projection in light of the facts on the ground regarding the rollout (Trump admin's handling thereof).

Yes, Trump's incompetence is really playing into your hands.

I have slim hopes that any of the logistics are going to improve before the Biden administration finds its legs, and that could take weeks after the inauguration. Longer, if the 'pugs still control the Senate.

Most of the distribution and administration is on the states actually.

WoM's projections under best case scenario (includes the PCitis of universal mask use, plus rapid vaccine rollout) is still at more than 4x the threshold you need for the "win".

Good thing then that we are using confirmed cases and that they are about 4x-5x less than the true case counts.

I am really REALLY hoping that one of the first things Biden does (that he CAN do) is to ramp up testing in a big way. Maybe get "confirmed" numbers more in line with reality. That is going to be key to reducing new infections and deaths in the interim before we get to any "herd immunity".

I think the horse is well out of the stable at this point for that. Focus needs to be on vaccines. Get as many of them into as many arms as quickly as possible.
Also, encourage states to adopt common sense restrictions like no night clubs or indoor dining. That's not rocket science, but I fear that will not be very successful.

Instead we get stupidity like this.
Out-of-towners party in Atlanta for the New Year

 

[fromderinside]

Yes, Trump's incompetence is really playing into your hands.

Indeed

Most of the distribution and administration is on the states actually.

Indeed but US government not really interested in funding states to accomplish these emergency tasks.

Good thing then that we are using confirmed cases and that they are about 4x-5x less than the true case counts.

Yeah that's the ticket. So why isn't federal government funding trace and track?

I think the horse is well out of the stable at this point for that. Focus needs to be on vaccines. Get as many of them into as many arms as quickly as possible

So lets don't consider the source reasons why were in this particular bind?

Also, encourage states to adopt common sense restrictions like no night clubs or indoor dining. That's not rocket science, but I fear that will not be very successful

Since most democrat governed states are doing these things maybe it would be a good idea for the president to encourage his republican cohorts to do the same?

 

[Elixir]

Here we are... bet is up in exactly three months from yesterday. Yesterday's World-o-Meters 7 day new case average was at 218.
So Derec can win if we cut that number in half every month between now and then, which would be out-performing the best month we've seen so far, by a factor of about three EVERY MONTH.
Oh wait - nope, even that wouldn't do it. Maybe by May 4th we can get down into the teens of thousands of confirmed cases per day?? Maybe. Still doubtful.
But April 4th is totally "Happy Talk".

encourage states to adopt common sense restrictions like no night clubs or indoor dining

Yes, that, plus mask mandates, plus vastly accelerated vaccine rollouts, and Derec might only lose his bet by a factor of 2-3.

 

[Elixir]

Don't look now, but 1/5 brought us a new record in the 7-day moving average for new cases.



When is that vaccine going to kick in, Derec? (No hurry to answer - I'm sure you're consumed by the property damage in DC)

 

[Derec]

Don't look now, but 1/5 brought us a new record in the 7-day moving average for new cases.
When is that vaccine going to kick in, Derec?

Still less than 2% of the population vaccinated, but as I said before I think cases will start declining in the 2nd week of January. First week of January is probably somewhat tainted by catchup from Christmas and New Years.
We should see some movement real soon.

(No hurry to answer - I'm sure you're consumed by the property damage in DC)

I am following the news. And I am glad you now care about rioting too. Can I count on your support next time #BLM burns down a building?

 

[ronburgundy]

Don't look now, but 1/5 brought us a new record in the 7-day moving average for new cases.
When is that vaccine going to kick in, Derec?

Still less than 2% of the population vaccinated, but as I said before I think cases will start declining in the 2nd week of January. First week of January is probably somewhat tainted by catchup from Christmas and New Years.
We should see some movement real soon.

Not "tainted" by Xmas, but accurately reflect the increase infection spread caused by Xmas travel, just like the post T-day spike represents the real increase infections caused by holiday travel. Note that both of those post holiday spikes are mirrored in deaths, which are not impacted by testing rates that during and post holiday.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Don't look now, but 1/5 brought us a new record in the 7-day moving average for new cases.
When is that vaccine going to kick in, Derec?

Still less than 2% of the population vaccinated, but as I said before I think cases will start declining in the 2nd week of January. First week of January is probably somewhat tainted by catchup from Christmas and New Years.
We should see some movement real soon.

Not "tainted" by Xmas, but accurately reflect the increase infection spread caused by Xmas travel, just like the post T-day spike represents the real increase infections caused by holiday travel. Note that both of those post holiday spikes are mirrored in deaths, which are not impacted by testing rates that during and post holiday.

Yeah, I don't think the new cases mean much anymore, the data it too dependent on how much testing is being done. It's the death rate that is meaningful.

 

[Elixir]

Don't look now, but 1/5 brought us a new record in the 7-day moving average for new cases.
When is that vaccine going to kick in, Derec?

Still less than 2% of the population vaccinated, but as I said before I think cases will start declining in the 2nd week of January.

What percentage of the population do you expect to be vaccinated by next week?
Yesterday set a new single day record (260,973) AND a new 7-day average record (228,891) for new cases. So it's still going up.
I do hope we're at, or at least near "the peak" but that is not in evidence. Right now, new cases are still rising, along with deaths which also set a record yesterday (4100).
Cut the new case rate in half FOUR TIMES (which we have never done even once) and we're still not meeting your Happy Talk expectations.
15k/day new cases by 4/4 is a pipe dream, even at current lax testing rates.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Don't look now, but 1/5 brought us a new record in the 7-day moving average for new cases.
When is that vaccine going to kick in, Derec?

Still less than 2% of the population vaccinated, but as I said before I think cases will start declining in the 2nd week of January.

Gonna be right one of these times. Also no one is vaccinated yet. People have only received one of the two doses.

I'd say third week of January and hopefully the balloons of the holiday spread end. Of course, the mass spreader event in DC, in the Capitol Building. Still, with the remediation efforts in several states, the number should start decreasing. However, deaths continue to increase, straining our medical systems.

 

[Elixir]

Don't look now, but 1/5 brought us a new record in the 7-day moving average for new cases.
When is that vaccine going to kick in, Derec?

Still less than 2% of the population vaccinated, but as I said before I think cases will start declining in the 2nd week of January.

Gonna be right one of these times. Also no one is vaccinated yet. People have only received one of the two doses.

I'd say third week of January and hopefully the balloons of the holiday spread end. Of course, the mass spreader event in DC, in the Capitol Building. Still, with the remediation efforts in several states, the number should start decreasing. However, deaths continue to increase, straining our medical systems.

Yup. I don't think the superspreader insurrection event will be consequential - most of them probably already had COVID anyhow. There are more and more lockdowns, mask mandates and yes - even vaccines every day, so a decline HAS to start soon or people will start dying from trivial causes due to lack of available rudimentary care. Of course those deaths won't be attributed to COVID... not that they should be, but they ought to be tracked if possible.

 

[blastula]

Don't look now, but 1/5 brought us a new record in the 7-day moving average for new cases.
When is that vaccine going to kick in, Derec?

Still less than 2% of the population vaccinated, but as I said before I think cases will start declining in the 2nd week of January. First week of January is probably somewhat tainted by catchup from Christmas and New Years.

*koff koff*

I think we will peak before the end of November, so I definitely think we will drop below 80k well before inauguration day. Probably even by New Year.

Well, I was right about the 1b peak. I think 1c will peak the 25th [of November] or so, end of the month at the outside.

 

[jonatha]

*koff koff*

I think we will peak before the end of November, so I definitely think we will drop below 80k well before inauguration day. Probably even by New Year.

Well, I was right about the 1b peak. I think 1c will peak the 25th [of November] or so, end of the month at the outside.

You *are* wearing your mask, aren't you?

 

[blastula]

You *are* wearing your mask, aren't you?

Mostly, sometimes I absentmindedly forget now since I've had covid so not so worried about it anymore. Embarrassing though to walk into a business without one and everyone looks at you, and so then I just yell FREEDOM, I MEANT TO DO THAT till I can make my escape and never return. Preferable to the sheepish walk of shame to the car for the forgotten mask.

 

[Derec]

*koff koff*

We all make mistakes.

I did not expect California to screw things up quite this badly for example. Our governor in Georgia went full Covtard (never go full Covtard!) and we also have a lot of people partying like it's Before Times in Atlanta's gazzilion night clubs, so you'd think Atlanta would look like what Los Angeles turned out to be. But we are still doing relatively decent compared to some other cities.

But this is the first time I've actually put money on it. We have the vaccine now, even if the rollout has been painfully slow.

 

[Derec]

Yup. I don't think the superspreader insurrection event will be consequential - most of them probably already had COVID anyhow.

Antimaskers herd immunity is a real thing. Glad you are coming around to the idea.

There are more and more lockdowns, mask mandates and yes - even vaccines every day, so a decline HAS to start soon or people will start dying from trivial causes due to lack of available rudimentary care. Of course those deaths won't be attributed to COVID... not that they should be, but they ought to be tracked if possible.

There is this thing called excess mortality, but it is not exact but statistical because you have to estimate how many deaths would have been normal.


From here. Excess mortality would include COVID deaths, both those part of the official count and those who are not, but also any deaths due to people not seeking medical care on time due to fears of the virus or those dying due to medical systems being stretched thin. But it would also be reduced by for example fewer people dying in car crashes due to lower traffic volumes (esp. in the early months of the pandemic; alas, Atlanta traffic is back to nearly normal levels) and social distancing reducing other communicable diseases such as the flu.

 

[Derec]

Also no one is vaccinated yet. People have only received one of the two doses.

Immunity starts kicking in 11-12 days after the first dose according to charts I have seen and posted upthread. Still, number of people who have been vaccinated so far has been too low. Blame not only Trump but also state and local governments who are actually in charge of distribution and administration.

I'd say third week of January and hopefully the balloons of the holiday spread end. Of course, the mass spreader event in DC, in the Capitol Building. Still, with the remediation efforts in several states, the number should start decreasing. However, deaths continue to increase, straining our medical systems.

Really old and vulnerable people in nursing homes were part of 1A. Those over 65 are at a high risk of hospitalization and death too, and a lot of them are still very active and can go places like restaurants and stores, risking infection. So deaths and medical system straining will hopefully decline faster than case numbers. I live in DeKalb County, Ga. They decided to extend vaccine eligibility to those over 65 starting this Monday and the registration was supposed to be opened this noon, but the website crashed due to a lot of people logging on. That bodes well for low 'vaccine hesitancy' among that cohort.

 

[Derec]

What percentage of the population do you expect to be vaccinated by next week?

Not enough. But by January 19th or so, hopefully 6% or so. Note that the reporting lags actual jabs. That would give 12 days until the beginning of February for those vaccinations to kick in.

Yesterday set a new single day record (260,973) AND a new 7-day average record (228,891) for new cases. So it's still going up.

Most of those are still catching up from the Christmas slump. Today looks pretty scary too. But we should start a real decline about now, and it should be reflected in reported cases when the Christmas catchup is over, hopefully by Monday. The cases plateaued in the week leading up to Christmas and while there were careless idiots visiting for Christmas and partying like it's 2019 for New Year's, there were a lot of new lockdown restrictions as well.

I do hope we're at, or at least near "the peak" but that is not in evidence. Right now, new cases are still rising, along with deaths which also set a record yesterday (4100).

As I said, a lot of that is the reporting artifact. Deaths dipped too for the holidays, and not because people took a break from dying.

Cut the new case rate in half FOUR TIMES (which we have never done even once) and we're still not meeting your Happy Talk expectations.

Four halvings means 16x decrease. 7 day average is ~240k right now. 240k/16 = 15k.
Note that halvigs will accelerate because of vaccination. As an example, if first halving takes 3.5 weeks, second 3 weeks, third 2.5 weeks and fourth 2 weeks, that's 4 halvings in 11 weeks, well within the timeframe.

15k/day new cases by 4/4 is a pipe dream, even at current lax testing rates.

Testing has increased greatly actually.

From here.

Which is one reason why you can't directly compare case numbers now with earlier months directly.

 

[Derec]

Yeah, I don't think the new cases mean much anymore, the data it too dependent on how much testing is being done. It's the death rate that is meaningful.

Death rate is a lagging indicator, by several weeks compared to cases.
On the positive side (because people dying is not just an indicator) I expect deaths to start to decline faster than actual cases as more vulnerable people get vaccinated soon. DeKalb County will extend eligibility to those >65 on Monday for example.

 

[Derec]

Not "tainted" by Xmas, but accurately reflect the increase infection spread caused by Xmas travel, just like the post T-day spike represents the real increase infections caused by holiday travel. Note that both of those post holiday spikes are mirrored in deaths, which are not impacted by testing rates that during and post holiday.

Some of it is people travelling and partying, but most of it is playing catchup on reporting. It is not only the cases that dipped over Christmas, but deaths too. However, people are not taking a break from dying, so it is a reporting artifact and the delayed case and death numbers are being added to later days leading to an artificial spike.

 

[Elixir]

... it is a reporting artifact and the delayed case and death numbers are being added to later days leading to an artificial spike.

Oh gee, that's good. I was afraid for a minute there that the recorded daily case numbers were still going up*, after two days of more than a quarter million new cases a day, and with new 7-day average records being set on consecutive days and today looking like a third.

Looks like there will be an "artifact" resulting in north of 30 thousand cases reported as the seven day average for 4/4... may be 2 or three times that number, or 4-6 times what your Happy Talk predicted.

*Those late reported postings can be tracked down by following the links provided in the state-by state footnotes over on the right. I don't thinkt the current record numbers are purely the result of shifted dates. But I may have missed something...