The World-O-Meter Thread

[lpetrich]

Indians are generally not very keen on vaccination, now that Coronavirus is somewhat on the wane. They would like to see the effect of the vaccination on those who take it.

Which kind of Indians are you talking about? Dot or feather?

Dot ones.

aupmanyav, "dot" and "feather" are cutesy nicknames for Asian Indians and American "Indians" here in the US.

 

[Politesse]

Indians are generally not very keen on vaccination, now that Coronavirus is somewhat on the wane. They would like to see the effect of the vaccination on those who take it.

Which kind of Indians are you talking about? Dot or feather?

Dot ones.

aupmanyav, "dot" and "feather" are cutesy nicknames for Asian Indians and American "Indians" here in the US.

Where by "cutesy nicknames" we mean "overtly racist jokes".

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Indians are generally not very keen on vaccination, now that Coronavirus is somewhat on the wane. They would like to see the effect of the vaccination on those who take it.

Which kind of Indians are you talking about? Dot or feather?

Dot ones.

aupmanyav, "dot" and "feather" are cutesy nicknames for Asian Indians and American "Indians" here in the US.

I want to know how in the fuck he could think a person with a handle aupmanyav would be a Native American.

 

[crazyfingers]

Muslims, as usual, have objected to the use of vaccine since it is thought that it is produced with use of pork fat. The clerics have issued fatwas against it.

Not sure how I feel that the US doesn't have a complete monopoly on stupidity.

 

[Jokodo]

Indians are generally not very keen on vaccination, now that Coronavirus is somewhat on the wane. They would like to see the effect of the vaccination on those who take it.

Which kind of Indians are you talking about? Dot or feather?

Someone with his screen name posting from New Delhi? Is this a serious question or did you just not manage to skip the tempting opportunity to drop a blatantly racist remark?

 

[marc]

Indians are generally not very keen on vaccination, now that Coronavirus is somewhat on the wane. They would like to see the effect of the vaccination on those who take it.

Which kind of Indians are you talking about? Dot or feather?

Someone with his screen name posting from New Delhi? Is this a serious question or did you just not manage to skip the tempting opportunity to drop a blatantly racist remark?

I believe he is quoting the comedian Andrew Dice Clay

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Still at least a week from a peak in the deaths per day stat. Nearing 20,000 a week dying.

A lot of different forces acting against each other in new cases. Many states have restricted access to services, where as a lot of self-entitled assholes went flying because their own family was a notable exception to being responsible in a pandemic. No idea where we'll be in a few weeks, as the vaccine slowly gets administered in the US.

Someone with his screen name posting from New Delhi? Is this a serious question or did you just not manage to skip the tempting opportunity to drop a blatantly racist remark?

I believe he is quoting the comedian Andrew Dice Clay

Andrew Dice Clay?! Reminds me of Jim Cornette recently (last year or two (four?)) getting into trouble over a remark he made while commenting in a wrestling match about something like 'a starving kid in Ethiopia'. Dude, the 80s called and they want their references back.

 

[Worldtraveller]

Muslims, as usual, have objected to the use of vaccine since it is thought that it is produced with use of pork fat. The clerics have issued fatwas against it.

Not sure how I feel that the US doesn't have a complete monopoly on stupidity.

It's ok, we're still #1.

 

[Elixir]

Right. The fact that April 4 is Easter and will will therefore be an artificially depressed reporting day, is Derec's best hope for winning our bet.

Not really. Easter falls on a Sunday anyway and day of week fluctuations (as well as random noise) are accounted in the 7 day average. Easter is also mostly a religious holiday and not the kind of civil holiday Thanksgiving and Christmas are, and thus does not really impact the business cycle in any meaningful way. For example stores close (early) for Thanksgiving and Christmas, but not for Easter.

Anyhow. re: vaccines....

Adequately vaccinating Americans will take 10 years at current pace

Of course the pace is going to pick up dramatically. The really worrisome part is the galloping goalposts.
The initial promise was 100 million vaccinations in December. Then it became 40 million vaccinations in December, then it became 20 million vaccinations in December, then it became 20 million doses "available" in December.
About 2 million vaccinations have occurred.

What either the promise or the reality will be over the next 3-4 weeks is anyone's guess, but you can rest assured that there will be a huge gap between the two.
Hopefully once the new administration takes office, we will get promises that are a little more in line with reality.

 

[Derec]

Anyhow. re: vaccines....

Yupp. Your only hope to win the bet is that the vaccine rollout keeps underwhelming long term. I still think 100 million by mid-March is very much doable and sufficient to drive case numbers down to 15k/d.

 

[Derec]

Someone with his screen name posting from New Delhi? Is this a serious question or did you just not manage to skip the tempting opportunity to drop a blatantly racist remark?

1. It's not racist at all. Maybe it's not quite PC, but it's not racist.
2. I merely did not check out the poster's location before replying. Big deal!

 

[ZiprHead]

Someone with his screen name posting from New Delhi? Is this a serious question or did you just not manage to skip the tempting opportunity to drop a blatantly racist remark?

1. It's not racist at all. Maybe it's not quite PC, but it's not racist.

I agree not racist. Just very bigoted. But that's par for the course for you.

 

[Derec]

I agree not racist. Just very bigoted. But that's par for the course for you.

In reality it is neither.

 

[Elixir]

Anyhow. re: vaccines....

Yupp. Your only hope to win the bet is that the vaccine rollout keeps underwhelming long term. I still think 100 million by mid-March is very much doable and sufficient to drive case numbers down to 15k/d.

If I do "win" I would hope it would be by a slim margin. But even that is basically Happy Talk.
Here's the projection by data analysts at WoM. Their April 1 estimate ranges from 69k new cases/day under best case scenario, to 188k new cases per day under worst case scenario.



This includes those not tested, so for you it's another case of "ignorance is bliss".
But keep up the Happy Talk, Derec - at least you might cheer someone up (yourself?).

 

[ZiprHead]

I agree not racist. Just very bigoted. But that's par for the course for you.

In reality it is neither.

Self unaware bigotry.

 

[Derec]

If I do "win" I would hope it would be by a slim margin. But even that is basically Happy Talk.
Here's the projection by data analysts at WoM. Their April 1 estimate ranges from 69k new cases/day under best case scenario, to 188k new cases per day under worst case scenario.
This includes those not tested, so for you it's another case of "ignorance is bliss".

It's not that "ignorance is bliss". Everybody knows that confirmed cases are a fraction of all cases. But the bet was based on confirmed cases, so you can't go shifting goalposts just to win, Elixir.

But keep up the Happy Talk, Derec - at least you might cheer someone up (yourself?).

I still think we can vaccinate 100 million in the US by mid-March. That's about 10 weeks. If we get close to that number, I think I will win handily.

 

[Derec]

Self unaware bigotry.

Self-unaware PCitis.

 

[Elixir]

It's not that "ignorance is bliss". Everybody knows that confirmed cases are a fraction of all cases.

Everyone? I figured you just learned that. It's one reason I had confidence in the bet - I do totally hope that Biden forces the Defense production act upon some Companies and wrings a metric crap-ton of tests out of them.

But the bet was based on confirmed cases, so you can't go shifting goalposts just to win, Elixir.

WUT? When the data through April 4th settles, the 7-day rolling average for the 4th will be OVER 15,000 new cases, or you win. I'll even give you the unlikely "tie" at exactly 15k.
Nothing is moving - if testing falls through the floor and as a result there are fewer than 15k confirmed cases while there are still dead and dying lining the hospital halls, you still win despite what would be the apparent fact that there were lots of "unrecorded" cases.
I just don't think that's going to happen, and I don't think Happy Talk about vaccines is going to help stop new cases or make people ambivalent about testing. The only thing that is going help you "win" is if we all win - by practicing fastidious measures that suppress transmission. But alas ... "anti maskers", "anti-vaxxers", "hoaxers", Republicans et al...

I still think we can vaccinate 100 million in the US by mid-March. That's about 10 weeks. If we get close to that number, I think I will win handily.

Do you have a reputable data analytics source that agrees with the <15/day projection, or did you do all the epidemiological mathematics yourself to get to that conclusion?
I did see Fauci revising his own estimate of the immunity levels in the general population required for "herd-immunity" to actually suppress the pandemic, now up to 90%.
Anyhow, I'm rooting for you; doing my part.

 

[Elixir]

Still curious, Derec - Do you have a reputable data analytics source that agrees with the <15/day projection, or did you do all the epidemiological mathematics yourself to get to that conclusion?

Again, regarding vaccines ... on December 15th Dr. Fauci speculated that we could see some herd immunity by late March or early April. Since then he has modified his projection in light of the facts on the ground regarding the rollout (Trump admin's handling thereof).

Fauci predicts normal life won’t return in U.S. before fall 2021
The assessment comes as the Trump administration appears poised to miss its year-end target to vaccinate 20 million Americans.

I have slim hopes that any of the logistics are going to improve before the Biden administration finds its legs, and that could take weeks after the inauguration. Longer, if the 'pugs still control the Senate.

It's not that "ignorance is bliss". Everybody knows that confirmed cases are a fraction of all cases.

WoM's projections under best case scenario (includes the PCitis of universal mask use, plus rapid vaccine rollout) is still at more than 4x the threshold you need for the "win". I am really REALLY hoping that one of the first things Biden does (that he CAN do) is to ramp up testing in a big way. Maybe get "confirmed" numbers more in line with reality. That is going to be key to reducing new infections and deaths in the interim before we get to any "herd immunity".

 

[Derec]

Everyone? I figured you just learned that. It's one reason I had confidence in the bet - I do totally hope that Biden forces the Defense production act upon some Companies and wrings a metric crap-ton of tests out of them.

You should read the thread more carefully. I mentioned it repeatedly.
Anyway, I don't think Biden will increase testing that much. Testing as many people as possible and contact tracing would have been good earlier in the pandemic and was a huge missed opportunity. But now it will not provide much bang for the buck.
Now, the name of the game is getting people vaccinated as quickly as possible. And I really hope Biden will be able to ramp that up by federal government coordinating matters better than Trump's administration.

WUT? When the data through April 4th settles, the 7-day rolling average for the 4th will be OVER 15,000 new cases, or you win. I'll even give you the unlikely "tie" at exactly 15k.
Nothing is moving - if testing falls through the floor and as a result there are fewer than 15k confirmed cases while there are still dead and dying lining the hospital halls, you still win despite what would be the apparent fact that there were lots of "unrecorded" cases.

Ha! I don't think that latter scenario could happen but at the same time I can't see testing rates doubling or tripling either.

I just don't think that's going to happen, and I don't think Happy Talk about vaccines is going to help stop new cases or make people ambivalent about testing. The only thing that is going help you "win" is if we all win - by practicing fastidious measures that suppress transmission. But alas ... "anti maskers", "anti-vaxxers", "hoaxers", Republicans et al...

There are many anti-waxxers on the Left too. As to anti-maskers they are also more likely to get infected themselves, which means they will reach (near) herd immunity before anybody else which will take them off the board as far as a major driver of new infections. 25-30% of US has likely been infected (6.3% confirmed cases, assuming ~4-5x multiplier) but anti-maskers are probably already probably double that.

Do you have a reputable data analytics source that agrees with the <15/day projection, or did you do all the epidemiological mathematics yourself to get to that conclusion?

It is my own estimate. It is based on things like vaccination and people who drive most of the spread (anti-maskers, indoor diners, night club goers and workers that interact with many people [grocery, restaurant and healthcare workers] or interact with people closely [hair stylists, masseuses, etc. including healthcare workers]) getting herd immune sooner than everybody else and losing their suprespreader potency.

First test of my model will be whether we start declining rapidly after the 1st week of January. Second, if we get below about 120k/d by the end of the month, my model is on track.

I did see Fauci revising his own estimate of the immunity levels in the general population required for "herd-immunity" to actually suppress the pandemic, now up to 90%.
Anyhow, I'm rooting for you; doing my part.

What is he basing that on. The mutant virus or something else? 90% seems awfully high.