The World-O-Meter Thread

[Elixir]

It's a lot more than a day of corrections.

We aren't exponential. But we are growing. Generally best to compare today's numbers with the one seven days ago. That shows continued growth... which is slowing due to new restrictions in several states, and holding back that pulse of new cases from T-Day stupidity. And now with Xmas, a lot of self-entitled assholes are going to spread this a bit more. The death tolls have risen, in predictable fashion, and we might reach a 7-day average of 3,000 a day.

The US is in a prevent defense and giving up yards like crazy.

Derec's prediction of =< 15,000 new cases/day (7-day average) on April 4 seems like a pipedream to me. Here's a simple illustration of why I think that.
It is 102 days until April 4.
It is 102 days since September 12th.
So the decrease curve is going to have to be steeper on average, not only than the increase curve since 9/12, it will have to decrease by more than half again, since the 9/12 number was 35,866.
Here's the mirror of the last 102 days. We have never come close to the decrease rate required for Derec's prediction to come true, ever. We will have to maintain a downward trend consistently for 102 days, never having shown the discipline to effect even a slow decrease for more than about 50 days.



Short of a 100 day enforced nationwide lockdown and 100% non-essential travel ban, I just don't see it. Here's the image this was taken from, from which it is obvious that we have neither the will nor the way to get there by then. We're in for a long haul; it will be a very good job if we can avoid another fall "surge".

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It's a lot more than a day of corrections.

I don't think so. But it's easy to find out. This is the snapshot as of today.
View attachment 30939
It shows a bumpy plateau between about 12/10 and now.

We will check the graph of 12/10 - 12/22 in a week or two. If you are right, the bumpy plateau should be replaced by a noticeable upslope. If I am right, it will not be significantly changed.

Actually, I don't think it means much in any case--the positivity rates are so high it's more a measure of the testing than the disease.

 

[Elixir]

It's a lot more than a day of corrections.

I don't think so. But it's easy to find out. This is the snapshot as of today.
View attachment 30939
It shows a bumpy plateau between about 12/10 and now.

We will check the graph of 12/10 - 12/22 in a week or two. If you are right, the bumpy plateau should be replaced by a noticeable upslope. If I am right, it will not be significantly changed.

Actually, I don't think it means much in any case--the positivity rates are so high it's more a measure of the testing than the disease.

And inconsistent reporting. Reading the WoM fine print tells us that a there is a lot of delayed and revised reporting.

 

[James Brown]

Per Million, 7-Day Rolling Average

 

[Loren Pechtel]

View attachment 30982

Per Million, 7-Day Rolling Average

Talk about bad reporting!!

There's absolutely no reason fro that dip in deaths at Thanksgiving and there's been plenty of time for it to get fixed.

What happened???

 

[Derec]

Talk about bad reporting!!
There's absolutely no reason fro that dip in deaths at Thanksgiving and there's been plenty of time for it to get fixed.
What happened???

I've been telling you man. Small adjustments are made for the day or two previous, but something like Thanksgiving or Christmas does not. Either data is collected and reported late and simply included in later day when reported or people don't get tested on holidays but instead wait for the start of following week to get tested. The former could in principle be fixable - but isn't - but the latter can't.

 

[Derec]

Actually, I don't think it means much in any case--the positivity rates are so high it's more a measure of the testing than the disease.

Backpedaling already. The data may be imperfect for many reasons but it is what it is.

 

[Derec]

Derec's prediction of =< 15,000 new cases/day (7-day average) on April 4 seems like a pipedream to me.

We shall see.

Here's the mirror of the last 102 days. We have never come close to the decrease rate required for Derec's prediction to come true, ever. We will have to maintain a downward trend consistently for 102 days, never having shown the discipline to effect even a slow decrease for more than about 50 days.

One word: vaccine. We already vaccinated 2 million people. By the end of January it will be >30 million probably. That's 10% of the population. Add to >30% who are likely long term immune because they will have gotten infected by then (probably ~25% right now given ~20 million confirmed cases and ~4x multiplier). And that's by start of February. By end of March we will probably have vaccinated a third of the population.

Short of a 100 day enforced nationwide lockdown and 100% non-essential travel ban, I just don't see it. Here's the image this was taken from, from which it is obvious that we have neither the will nor the way to get there by then. We're in for a long haul; it will be a very good job if we can avoid another fall "surge".

You think there will be another surge next Fall? Not unless there is a major mutation that renders acquired immunity and immunity from vaccines useless.

 

[Derec]

We aren't exponential. But we are growing.

We? Is that the royal "we"? You know the editorial ...

Generally best to compare today's numbers with the one seven days ago.

Generally I prefer the running average, but I'll play. The week until Festivus, not counting Christmas Eve/Day and the Feast of St. Stephen, because reporting on those days is a mess.

12/17 (239,058) - 12/10 (228,043) Δ: 11,015
12/18 (255,774) - 12/11 (247,423) Δ: 8,351
12/19 (198,084) - 12/12 (222,774) Δ: -24,690
12/20 (189,463) - 12/13 (194,210) Δ: -4,747
12/21 (201,294) - 12/14 (200,919) Δ: 375
12/22 (199,262) - 12/15 (202,879) Δ: -3,617
12/23 (233,486) - 12/16 (251,448) Δ: -17,962

That shows continued growth...

Wrong. it's lately been going up some days, down others, but mostly the daily cases have been going down compared to the same weekday the week before. Which fits the "bumpy plateau".

which is slowing due to new restrictions in several states, and holding back that pulse of new cases from T-Day stupidity. And now with Xmas, a lot of self-entitled assholes are going to spread this a bit more. The death tolls have risen, in predictable fashion, and we might reach a 7-day average of 3,000 a day.

There are also saturation effects, but I agree, some of the newly imposed restrictions in California are also doing some good.
As far as Christmas, we shall see how much of an effect that has once the reporting slump is over.

 

[Elixir]

Talk about bad reporting!!
There's absolutely no reason fro that dip in deaths at Thanksgiving and there's been plenty of time for it to get fixed.
What happened???

I've been telling you man. Small adjustments are made for the day or two previous, but something like Thanksgiving or Christmas does not. Either data is collected and reported late and simply included in later day when reported or people don't get tested on holidays but instead wait for the start of following week to get tested. The former could in principle be fixable - but isn't - but the latter can't.

You need to read all the asterisks. SOME data is retrofitted to the day of the occurrence, some added to the present and some added back within a day or two. World-o-Meters seems to be doing their best to provide both an accurate picture of the present and an accurate representation of past events and conditions, but they are dependent on their sources (listed).

The data may be imperfect for many reasons but it is what it is.

And today's "what it is" may be something slightly different by tomorrow or next week - or, in a few cases, next month.

We already vaccinated 2 million people

"We" have administered about 2m DOSES. In another month and 2 million more doses, we may have 2 million people fully vaccinated, and three weeks after that we should have 2 million people who are not susceptible to infection.
So - by February, a little less than 0.6% of the population may have vaccination-induced immunity, or maybe 1% of the number needed to attain meaningful "herd immunity". By April 4th, there will likely still be far more people carrying antibodies from infection than from vaccination.
I will be very happy if we get down to averages in the four digit range of new cases per day by July.

There are also saturation effects, but I agree, some of the newly imposed restrictions in California are also doing some good.
As far as Christmas, we shall see how much of an effect that has once the reporting slump is over.

...and the New Years reporting slump, and the election week reporting slump... maybe we'll see good current numbers by mid January.
We shall see, absolutely.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Talk about bad reporting!!
There's absolutely no reason fro that dip in deaths at Thanksgiving and there's been plenty of time for it to get fixed.
What happened???

I've been telling you man. Small adjustments are made for the day or two previous, but something like Thanksgiving or Christmas does not. Either data is collected and reported late and simply included in later day when reported or people don't get tested on holidays but instead wait for the start of following week to get tested. The former could in principle be fixable - but isn't - but the latter can't.

That chart is deaths, not diagnoses. Changes in testing can't be responsible, the data is being manipulated.

 

[Elixir]

One word: vaccine.

Two words:
Happy Talk

"by the time we get to April, mid-late April, you’ll have taken the high-priority people and already accounted for them and then anyone can get vaccinated”.

 

[Derec]

Two words:
Happy Talk

We shall see.

"by the time we get to April, mid-late April, you’ll have taken the high-priority people and already accounted for them and then anyone can get vaccinated”.

I wonder what he means by "high-priority" people and what percentage of Americans belong to that group.

 

[Derec]

That chart is deaths, not diagnoses. Changes in testing can't be responsible, the data is being manipulated.

Then it's data collection and reporting. I do not see why you think data is being manipulated, which requires intent to deceive, rather than it just being reported late due to holidays.

 

[Derec]

You need to read all the asterisks. SOME data is retrofitted to the day of the occurrence, some added to the present and some added back within a day or two. World-o-Meters seems to be doing their best to provide both an accurate picture of the present and an accurate representation of past events and conditions, but they are dependent on their sources (listed).

That's exactly what I've been saying! Some numbers are retrofitted day or two, and the rest gets added to later days. The dip for Thanksgiving will not get fixed, but part of the post-Thanksgiving jump in cases are cases that occurred over Thanksgiving but were reported late. I expect the same to happen for Christmas as well.

"We" have administered about 2m DOSES. In another month and 2 million more doses, we may have 2 million people fully vaccinated, and three weeks after that we should have 2 million people who are not susceptible to infection.

Immunity kicks in about 11 days after the first dose actually.

This is Pfizer. Moderna looks very similar.

So - by February, a little less than 0.6% of the population may have vaccination-induced immunity, or maybe 1% of the number needed to attain meaningful "herd immunity".

Nope.

By April 4th, there will likely still be far more people carrying antibodies from infection than from vaccination.

Maybe, maybe not. Already, it is ~25% who have been exposed. Gonna be ~35-40% by April likely. I think we can get at least that many vaccinated by late March I think. Together, that would mean more than half of people being immune assuming no more than 20% overlap. If the overlap is closer to 10%, we have ~60-65% of people immune. I fail to see how that is not enough to drive transmissions down below 5/d/100,000 population.

...and the New Years reporting slump, and the election week reporting slump... maybe we'll see good current numbers by mid January.
We shall see, absolutely.

New Year is not nearly as big a holiday as Thanksgiving or Christmas. I don't see a reporting slump there. By election week you mean the Georgia runoff? I do not see why that should affect reporting, but it will increase transmissions (in Georgia only of course) because unlike most runoffs the turnout is high and many people are standing in line.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Looking at the statistics for Thanksgiving and Xmas tell me there is one simple want to help instantly cut cases and deaths by 20 to 33%. More holidays.

 

[aupmanyav]

Indians are generally not very keen on vaccination, now that Coronavirus is somewhat on the wane. They would like to see the effect of the vaccination on those who take it. Corona workers, medical staff and police, and of course, the politicians and the rich, are going to get the first shots.
Muslims, as usual, have objected to the use of vaccine since it is thought that it is produced with use of pork fat. The clerics have issued fatwas against it.

 

[Elixir]

Looking at the statistics for Thanksgiving and Xmas tell me there is one simple want to help instantly cut cases and deaths by 20 to 33%. More holidays.

Right. The fact that April 4 is Easter and will will therefore be an artificially depressed reporting day, is Derec's best hope for winning our bet.

 

[Derec]

Right. The fact that April 4 is Easter and will will therefore be an artificially depressed reporting day, is Derec's best hope for winning our bet.

Not really. Easter falls on a Sunday anyway and day of week fluctuations (as well as random noise) are accounted in the 7 day average. Easter is also mostly a religious holiday and not the kind of civil holiday Thanksgiving and Christmas are, and thus does not really impact the business cycle in any meaningful way. For example stores close (early) for Thanksgiving and Christmas, but not for Easter.

 

[Derec]

Indians are generally not very keen on vaccination, now that Coronavirus is somewhat on the wane. They would like to see the effect of the vaccination on those who take it.

Which kind of Indians are you talking about? Dot or feather?

Muslims, as usual, have objected to the use of vaccine since it is thought that it is produced with use of pork fat. The clerics have issued fatwas against it.

Not fat but gelatin.