The World-O-Meter Thread

[Derec]

*Those late reported postings can be tracked down by following the links provided in the state-by state footnotes over on the right. I don't thinkt the current record numbers are purely the result of shifted dates. But I may have missed something...

Not purely, but I think mostly. That Christmas dip was pretty big and the compensation is showing up now.

 

[James Brown]

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

 

[Elixir]

Friday's record: 306,449 new cases. 7 day average pushing 250 (Derec, you said we'd never get there - want a side bet on that?), 3-day average already at 282,899, record deaths...
Nothin like a "bumpy plateau" to reassure the Happy Talkers.

Maybe Sleepy Joe will save the day year, as he plans to release every single available dose to give as many people as possible their first shot, hoping that it will dampen the curve and that second doses come available in a timely manner. Hopefully it works out.
Sounds iffy to me, but I'm no epidemiologist or microbiologist. Is he trading some possible short term benefit against assured longer term benefits?



That "bumpy plateau" sure seems to have an upward bias. The FACT is that we are still experiencing rapid increases in both new cases and deaths.

 

[Derec]

Friday's record: 306,449 new cases. 7 day average pushing 250 (Derec, you said we'd never get there - want a side bet on that?), 3-day average already at 282,899, record deaths...
Nothin like a "bumpy plateau" to reassure the Happy Talkers.

There was a plateau with small bumps leading up to Christmas. Over Christmas there is a deep dent. That is followed by a compensatory large bump.
If you are right, cases will keep increasing indefinitely. If I am right, cases will start coming down starting next week.
I am excited to see who is right.

Maybe Sleepy Joe will save the day year, as he plans to release every single available dose to give as many people as possible their first shot, hoping that it will dampen the curve and that second doses come available in a timely manner. Hopefully it works out.

It's a high risk - high reward move that doesn't look like Biden's usual MO. If it works, you get more people vaccinated sooner. If you can't get them the second dose in time, you risk the vaccinatinons being for naught in the long run if the immunity starts to wane without the second dose.

Sounds iffy to me, but I'm no epidemiologist or microbiologist. Is he trading some possible short term benefit against assured longer term benefits?

Not quite. He is trading a definite short term benefit against a risk of a long term downside.

That "bumpy plateau" sure seems to have an upward bias. The FACT is that we are still experiencing rapid increases in both new cases and deaths.

We shall see.

 

[Elixir]

There was a plateau with small bumps leading up to Christmas. Over Christmas there is a deep dent. That is followed by a compensatory large bump.
If you are right, cases will keep increasing indefinitely.

Bullshit, but nice try. I have already clearly stated that I expect a peak by late January or February latest.

If I am right, cases will start coming down starting next week.

Well Derec, that's THIS week now. I was actually hoping last week would be the peak (and said so), but the graph makes it obvious that that was not the case.
We had reporting dips during labor day weekend, Thanksgiving weekend, Christmas weekend, New Years weekend... I suppose that when you miss your April 4 prediction of 15k or fewer reported new cases (7-day average) by a factor of four, you will point to the St Patrick's day reporting "gap"?

I am excited to see who is right.

The excitement is over, dude. Your bet is toast, unless most of the US population is wiped out by nuclear war or similar by then.
How about this, since you're so excited and the Big Decline is imminent:

7 day average pushing 250 (Derec, you said we'd never get there - want a side bet on that?)

I urge caution; remember you "predicted" that the Late July/Early August peak would be followed by a slow decline to zero and we are now at triple the rate of that peak.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

With that more contagious variant and complete indifference from 50% of the nation, maybe a peak in March. Cases are still rising despite the added restrictions.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Testing has increased greatly actually.
View attachment 31218
From here.

Which is one reason why you can't directly compare case numbers now with earlier months directly.

Foot, meet bullet.

Look at your own graph--the positivity rate is going up and up. That says testing is not keeping up with cases and thus we are increasingly undercounting actual cases.

Also, look at the healthcare system--state after state are reporting their hospitals are overloading. That's not testing, that's sick people.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Yeah, I don't think the new cases mean much anymore, the data it too dependent on how much testing is being done. It's the death rate that is meaningful.

Death rate is a lagging indicator, by several weeks compared to cases.
On the positive side (because people dying is not just an indicator) I expect deaths to start to decline faster than actual cases as more vulnerable people get vaccinated soon. DeKalb County will extend eligibility to those >65 on Monday for example.

It's going to be a while before vaccination makes much of a difference.

 

[Elixir]

Testing has increased greatly actually.
View attachment 31218
From here.

Which is one reason why you can't directly compare case numbers now with earlier months directly.

Foot, meet bullet.

Look at your own graph--the positivity rate is going up and up. That says testing is not keeping up with cases and thus we are increasingly undercounting actual cases.

Also, look at the healthcare system--state after state are reporting their hospitals are overloading. That's not testing, that's sick people.

Exactly. There is barely enough testing to keep up with symptomatic people, and that's why the shape of the test curve so closely resembles that of the new case reports curve.
An effective testing program would be testing entire populations, not just those who feel sick.

It's going to be a while before vaccination makes much of a difference.

SAhhh! You're interrupting Derec's Happy Talk.

 

[Elixir]

New reported cases 7 day average for Sunday, January 10:

250,402

Another Happy Talk prediction down the drain. Might be time to face the facts, Derec.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Testing has increased greatly actually.
View attachment 31218
From here.

Which is one reason why you can't directly compare case numbers now with earlier months directly.

Foot, meet bullet.

Look at your own graph--the positivity rate is going up and up. That says testing is not keeping up with cases and thus we are increasingly undercounting actual cases.

Also, look at the healthcare system--state after state are reporting their hospitals are overloading. That's not testing, that's sick people.

Yeah, talk about not being able to read graphs! I wouldn't say that states are lying, but rather we are running out of infrastructure for testing. Too many people have Covid! And what is worrisome is that cases continue to increase, which means the peak of daily deaths is not here yet! It seems possible 28k to 35k a week deaths is possible!

Meanwhile, Ohio, vaccination plans aren't quite working out. Phase 1B was supposed to be 65 and old, now it is Ohio has prioritized schools and just 80 and older for vaccinations! School related vaccinations start in February 1, as the 80+ then 75+ get done, so schools can open on March 1. Seriously, I have no idea what in the hell they are thinking.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

New reported cases 7 day average for Sunday, January 10:

250,402

Another Happy Talk prediction down the drain. Might be time to face the facts, Derec.

About 1,7000 deaths on Sunday, a slow day, almost 2,000 dead reported.

 

[Elixir]

New reported cases 7 day average for Sunday, January 10:

250,402

Another Happy Talk prediction down the drain. Might be time to face the facts, Derec.

About 1,7000 deaths on Sunday, a slow day, almost 2,000 dead reported.

...and no reports at all from MI, MO, KS, CT and RI.
Seven day moving average for deaths is at 3306. It is unsettling to realize that the next "Happy Talk" benchmark to be breached might be the 4k deaths/day 7-day average.

 

[Elixir]

Also, it is now looking likely that Trump's coup attempt is going to produce another bump in infections. Among those probably exposed, are the lawmakers who were sequestered together during the Trump riots, in groups that included Republicans who had tested positive and Republicans not wearing masks (despite requests to do so).

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Testing has increased greatly actually.
View attachment 31218
From here.

Which is one reason why you can't directly compare case numbers now with earlier months directly.

Foot, meet bullet.

Look at your own graph--the positivity rate is going up and up. That says testing is not keeping up with cases and thus we are increasingly undercounting actual cases.

Also, look at the healthcare system--state after state are reporting their hospitals are overloading. That's not testing, that's sick people.

Yeah, talk about not being able to read graphs! I wouldn't say that states are lying, but rather we are running out of infrastructure for testing. Too many people have Covid! And what is worrisome is that cases continue to increase, which means the peak of daily deaths is not here yet! It seems possible 28k to 35k a week deaths is possible!

I think some red states are actually messing with the data, but I think most of it is just overload.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Also, it is now looking likely that Trump's coup attempt is going to produce another bump in infections. Among those probably exposed, are the lawmakers who were sequestered together during the Trump riots, in groups that included Republicans who had tested positive and Republicans not wearing masks (despite requests to do so).

Wouldn't it be ironic if the coup ends up killing Rs rather than Ds??

 

[ZiprHead]

Also, it is now looking likely that Trump's coup attempt is going to produce another bump in infections. Among those probably exposed, are the lawmakers who were sequestered together during the Trump riots, in groups that included Republicans who had tested positive and Republicans not wearing masks (despite requests to do so).

Wouldn't it be ironic if the coup ends up killing Rs rather than Ds??

Another one of those sequestered has just tested positive. Unknown who at the moment.

 

[Elixir]

That “bumpy plateau” is looking rather Himalayan:

 

[Derec]

Bullshit, but nice try. I have already clearly stated that I expect a peak by late January or February latest.

So we agree on something. At least in part. I think we are just about at the peak - artificially higher due to late xmas/NY reporting.

We had reporting dips during labor day weekend, Thanksgiving weekend, Christmas weekend, New Years weekend... I suppose that when you miss your April 4 prediction of 15k or fewer reported new cases (7-day average) by a factor of four, you will point to the St Patrick's day reporting "gap"?

Not all holidays cause this. There was no appreciable dip for Labor Day or Easter. Thanksgiving and Christmas/NY are different. So no, there won't be a reporting delay for St. Patricks.

The excitement is over, dude. Your bet is toast, unless most of the US population is wiped out by nuclear war or similar by then.
How about this, since you're so excited and the Big Decline is imminent:

Yes, I think it is imminent.

Even better news. Several states have already extended vaccine eligibility to seniors over 65. Those over 65 account for 80% of COVID deaths and so vaccinating them will lead to a rapid decrease of the deaths and probably hospitalizations as well. I expect <1000 deaths/day by mid-February.

 

[Derec]

With that more contagious variant and complete indifference from 50% of the nation, maybe a peak in March. Cases are still rising despite the added restrictions.

No way. We are likely peaking right now, and if not now, very soon. By the beginning of March case numbers will be in the 5 digits.