The World-O-Meter Thread

[ronburgundy]

Yep, and it is not just cases but deaths, which means that it is not simply a result of more testing.

It's not just the result of more testing, but more testing is one cause of the increase in reported cases. Actual cases increased as well, as you point out, but not nearly as much as the reported cases would suggest.

The % increase in daily deaths was actually even larger than the % increase in cases.

 

[ronburgundy]

Data on total deaths in 2020 supports that the official COVID death numbers are real and reflect close to the actual numbers of COVID caused deaths.

UK's Office of National statistics publishes the total deaths from all causes per month. Someone on Twitter did the work of putting the numbers for the past 15 years in a spreadsheet below. The 73,161 additional deaths in 2020 over 2019 almost perfectly matches the WorldOMeter's total number of UK COVID deaths which was 73,512 as of Dec 31. Plus, comparing each month in 2020 to the same month in 2019 (or the the 15 year average), the extra deaths are a near perfect match for the pattern daily deaths on WorldoMeter in the bottom graph.

From March through December, 8 of the 10 months had more deaths than any of the 14 prior years. You see deaths begin to rise in March, really spike in April (double the deaths of April '19), start to level off through May and June, then become no higher than prior years in July and August, get slightly higher in Sep & Oct, then spike Nov - Dec (about 18% higher than avg of prior 14 years).

 

[Elixir]

Yep, and it is not just cases but deaths, which means that it is not simply a result of more testing.

It's not just the result of more testing, but more testing is one cause of the increase in reported cases. Actual cases increased as well, as you point out, but not nearly as much as the reported cases would suggest.

The % increase in daily deaths was actually even larger than the % increase in cases.

Derec is just pissed that he failed to foresee that the new administration was likely to actually DO the job(s) that Trump neglected.
Hopefully this is a small learning opportunity for him: THINK before spewing Happy Talk.
Or (even better) a learning opportunity for me: Things are not always as they seem, no matter how apparently obvious.

 

[Elixir]

An historic day?

Today, the world-o-meters 7 day average for new US cases fell to 183k+, which doesn't sound like a great thing, but I think (I hope) it is.
It's the first time that the 7-day average has fallen below the previous "low" in new cases - so I am hoping this is, finally, the long-awaited "peak".
Unless measures are relaxed and the "UK variant" takes hold in a big way, we might finally be on the long slow decline that will see the eventual (near) eradication of the disease.
Almost a year late, but ... maybe.

 

[Elixir]

I'm surprised Derec isn't all over this.
The 7-day new case average is down to 179,707!

That's nearly a 30% reduction in under two weeks!
If that can be maintained, Derec is going to win our bet going away!

Oops - my bad. With a 30% reduction every two weeks it would still take 14 weeks to get below 15k/day, and there are only 10 weeks until 4/4.
Never mind, Derec - sorry to get you excited.

Still, it IS an unprecedented trendline. Yeah, it's Sunday after a week with a holiday Monday, but we've had similar calendar moments. None ever yielded lows that dropped below previous lows, until now.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I'm surprised Derec isn't all over this.
The 7-day new case average is down to 179,707!

That's nearly a 30% reduction in under two weeks!
If that can be maintained, Derec is going to win our bet going away!

Oops - my bad. With a 30% reduction every two weeks it would still take 14 weeks to get below 15k/day, and there are only 10 weeks until 4/4.
Never mind, Derec - sorry to get you excited.

Still, it IS an unprecedented trendline. Yeah, it's Sunday after a week with a holiday Monday, but we've had similar calendar moments. None ever yielded lows that dropped below previous lows, until now.

Probably most of the Christmas crowd has been diagnosed by now.

 

[Elixir]

I'm surprised Derec isn't all over this.
The 7-day new case average is down to 179,707!

That's nearly a 30% reduction in under two weeks!
If that can be maintained, Derec is going to win our bet going away!

Oops - my bad. With a 30% reduction every two weeks it would still take 14 weeks to get below 15k/day, and there are only 10 weeks until 4/4.
Never mind, Derec - sorry to get you excited.

Still, it IS an unprecedented trendline. Yeah, it's Sunday after a week with a holiday Monday, but we've had similar calendar moments. None ever yielded lows that dropped below previous lows, until now.

Probably most of the Christmas crowd has been diagnosed by now.

That, and Trumpsucker Superspreader Rally Season has wound down.
Also, Federal messaging has vastly improved...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Of course, the SE is under testing too.

 

[Elixir]

All the above factors notwithstanding, the 7-day new case average is now (Monday morning 1/25) down to 173,807. That is the lowest it has been since December 2nd of last year.
I'm not ready to say categorically that the worst is behind us, but I think it more likely than not that we are past (or are passing) that mythical "peak".

 

[Derec]

The % increase in daily deaths was actually even larger than the % increase in cases.

Is it? Can you show the math?

 

[Derec]

Derec is just pissed that he failed to foresee that the new administration was likely to actually DO the job(s) that Trump neglected.

Huh? Nothing I ever wrote on here could lead people to think I thought the Trump administration was anything but incompetent.

As much as I disagree with the Biden administration on many of its policies (specifically where he abandoned his moderate campaign ideas and is caving in to the Squad), I do think he will be much more competent.

 

[Derec]

Today, the world-o-meters 7 day average for new US cases fell to 183k+, which doesn't sound like a great thing, but I think (I hope) it is.
It's the first time that the 7-day average has fallen below the previous "low" in new cases - so I am hoping this is, finally, the long-awaited "peak".

And the previous "low" was artificially low because it was the Christmas slump in reporting. Things are starting to look better.

 

[Derec]

You did, however make a prediction; 600.
I don't blame you for excusing yourself from that blatantly foolish prediction.

It was a prediction, yes. But predictions have a ± uncertainty. So I do not think it would be prudent to stake money on it. I would be willing to do it for 1000. Take it or leave it.

 

[Elixir]

You did, however make a prediction; 600.
I don't blame you for excusing yourself from that blatantly foolish prediction.

It was a prediction, yes. But predictions have a ± uncertainty. So I do not think it would be prudent to stake money on it. I would be willing to do it for 1000. Take it or leave it.

I'll take "death" for 800, Alex.
33& higher than your prediction. Take it or leave it.

I think I made my point, and am still hoping to somehow "lose" the April 4 bet.
I do appreciate that you have tempered your Happy Talk, because I think it's counterproductive and potentially dangerous.

As much as I disagree with the Biden administration on many of its policies (specifically where he abandoned his moderate campaign ideas and is caving in to the Squad), I do think he will be much more competent.

But somehow you didn't anticipate that he might ramp up testing by April?
I do understand that the new more contagious variants were not foreseeable, though vaguely predicted within the epidemiological community.

 

[Elixir]

"Experts" are warning that we could be seeing a pause before the storm. New strains are causing a lot of worry.
Hard to tell where we are going from here.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

First peak, ~30,000, plateau'd to 15,000
Second peak, ~40,000, plateau'd to 20,000
Third peak, ~275,000, plateaus?

We saw over 150,000 new cases in one day, on a Monday.

We closed the doors when it was 1/8 the number of daily cases in this peak. Americans see the numbers drop to 150,000 a day (5x the first peak) and go out and mingle because 'we flattened the curve again'!

 

[Elixir]

First peak, ~30,000, plateau'd to 15,000
Second peak, ~40,000, plateau'd to 20,000
Third peak, ~275,000, plateaus?

We saw over 150,000 new cases in one day, on a Monday.

We closed the doors when it was 1/8 the number of daily cases in this peak. Americans see the numbers drop to 150,000 a day (5x the first peak) and go out and mingle because 'we flattened the curve again'!

Yes! That's precisely what happens when Happy Talk prevails. Which is why I'm happy to take Derec's $100 and give it to TFT.

 

[Elixir]

I think this is what's called an "inflection point".



If that little uptick at the end turns into a trend, and goes back over 200k new cases per day as some "experts" predict, the next few months could be real ugly. Hopefully it's just a bump in a now downward-sloping "bumpy plateau" (to use Derec's misnomer). The next couple of weeks should tell.

Unrelated (sort of) ... after maybe 50 tries at the county website, I got a reservation for a first shot on Feb 15! I was so excited I never noted which one they said I'd be getting (Moderna/Pfizer) but I don't care.
The bad news - my wife being a few years younger (less old) than I, she's not eligible under current rules. Guess I'll be on shopping detail for a while.

 

[Derec]

I think this is what's called an "inflection point".p

Inflection point is where the concavity of a curve changes.

If that little uptick at the end turns into a trend, and goes back over 200k new cases per day as some "experts" predict, the next few months could be real ugly. Hopefully it's just a bump in a now downward-sloping "bumpy plateau" (to use Derec's misnomer). The next couple of weeks should tell.

Oh, we are well past the plateau stage. We are in the steep downslope stage, and yes, it will be bumpy especially when you insist to use noisy daily data instead of 7 day averages, which are still pointing down.
By the way, if you look at daily data, you can see that the motif of slight increases from day to day right before the weekend occurs most of the time, even when the cases are trending down. So I would not ascribe any significance to the slight uptick over the last few days. It's a reporting artefact.

With increasing vaccinations and advanced natural immunity (~30% of the population has been infected already) I do not see how we can go back up, even with RSA and UK versions that are somewhat more infectious.

Unrelated (sort of) ... after maybe 50 tries at the county website, I got a reservation for a first shot on Feb 15! I was so excited I never noted which one they said I'd be getting (Moderna/Pfizer) but I don't care.
The bad news - my wife being a few years younger (less old) than I, she's not eligible under current rules. Guess I'll be on shopping detail for a while.

What's the cutoff in your state? 65?

 

[Elixir]

Oh, we are well past the plateau stage.

Yeah, the last time there was a "plateau' of any duration was in January of 2020, your specious descriptions notwithstanding.

I would not ascribe any significance to the slight uptick over the last few days

Oh, that's so reassuring. Especially as it echoes your assurances of late July that we were "headed for the downslope".

I do not see how we can go back up,

Forgive me if I am unable to take solace from what you "do not see". I'll remind you that you "did not see" see 15k cases/day still being reported by 4/4/21.

What's the cutoff in your state? 65?

Yesterday it was 70+. This morning it was announced that 65+ will be "eligible" (meaningless without supply) starting on Feb 7th.