The World-O-Meter Thread

[Derec]

So, while you're looking for a 7-day average of new reported cases to fall by 94% from 1/15 to 4/4, you also expect a drop in daily deaths (7-day average, now at 3416) to decline by 83% in the next 41 days?

The vaccinations are now open to >65 year olds. They account for ~80% of the deaths. In the next four weeks I expect at least 25 million people to receive their vaccines and vast majority of them will be old. Add to that the general decrease in case numbers, and the hospitalization and death rate will fall off the cliff in February.

I will be SO happy to cough up a c-note if the WoM reported death rate (7-day average) on March 1st (my birthday!) is at or below 600/day.
Are you on?

Not so fast! Last time I made a mistake of having my prediction be the bet cutoff. So I could lose and things still be much closer to my prediction than your pessimistic one.

How about this instead. You tell me your "Doom and Gloom Talk" prediction for March 1st and the bet will be based on the geometric mean (more favorable to you than arithmetic mean, can't accuse me of not being fair). So what is your best prediction?

 

[Derec]

Yep, and it is not just cases but deaths, which means that it is not simply a result of more testing.

It's not just the result of more testing, but more testing is one cause of the increase in reported cases. Actual cases increased as well, as you point out, but not nearly as much as the reported cases would suggest.

 

[Derec]

We have three humps starting from mid November, they plot basically a straight--but not flat--line.

The humps are artificial based on reporting dips for the holidays. If you look at area under the 7 day curve the last hump has about the same area as the Christmas dip. Which means the real cases have been rather flat. That is different than Thanksgiving where there was a real post-Thanksgiving surge.

When I talked about the "bumpy plateau" I specifically referred to the time after Dec 10-12. The Thanksgiving surge is not part of it.

 

[Derec]

It's a bumpy plateau with a severe upward tilt.

I'd get my prescription checked. Or maybe your head is at a tilt.

It will need to reverse that tilt very very soon if we are to be functionally rid of this thing before fall.

When do you think we will peak and what will the peak be?

Second, there is a significant (and rising) number of people who are suffering from reinfections with SARS-nCoV-2;

Is there? I have seen reports about a handful of cases. How many reinfections have there been really?

The infection WILL reach those parts of the population we most fear for: the elderly, the immunocompromised, the newborns.

It already has. Vast majority of the deaths have been >65. The first (or one of the very first) cluster of cases was at a nursing home in WA. And there have been reports of COVID spreading in nursing homes or nun convents (where population also skews old). I am sure many newborns have been exposed as well, although not sure how affected they are.

The fact that we do not yet have vaccines approved for children under the age of 16 already means we are facing an uphill battle with eradicating this virus.

I think this is the function of testing rather than property of the vaccines that have been approved for adults.

Someone on the original post made a comment about how the COVID-19 virus will evolve to being no worse than a head cold. After all, that’s why smallpox is no longer around, we all developed immunity to the weak, mildly annoying version of the virus!
(Seriously. That’s what the commenter claimed. The ignorance in that comment is… stunning. And racist and classist, to boot.)

There are Coronaviruses including β-Coronaviruses that cause common colds. So the idea is not crazy for Coronaviruses, even though the Smallpox analogy misses somewhat. And I fail to see what's "racist" or "classist" about it.

So, long story short: if you are capable of receiving the vaccine, GET IT as soon as possible.

I would agree with that part.

 

[Derec]

Only ~142k new cases yesterday - a weekday! Could be a turning point, but won't get my hopes up until the 7-day average falls below the level of the last trough in the graph (~185k).

Cautiously joining the Happy Talk now, are we?

Derec has not responded to my acceptance:

Had no time to post much. I've been neglecting other threads as well.

 

[Derec]

Yeah, a linear regression line for the past 2 months would basically go from around 150k to 225k, showing a 50% increase in daily cases over that period.

If you go back to where I first mentioned the "bumpy plateau" I predicted, I had specifically predicted it from about December 10th or 12th or so. "Past two months" includes the time outside of that.
Run a regression since 12/12 and we are basically flat.

The fact that daily deaths mirror this identical pattern suggests that the dips were not an artifact of holiday testing slumps.

There is also holiday reporting slump. Agencies don't report cases and deaths occurring when they are closed, but then the cases get reported after. So you get a dip followed by a bump.

It's the same reason cases decline over the weekend and there is this undulation if you don't use the 7 day average. Some agencies are closed on the weekend, don't report then, and tack the numbers on to beginning of the week.

 

[Derec]

Ummm..... yesterday was a holiday. Likely still weekend effect on the reported new cases.

Monday is always slow actually while Saturday isn't. So today will likely be somewhat slow too. Eager to see Wednesday numbers.

And we are just about due for a spike from the DC riot aern't we?

Those few hundred to a thousand people would not cause a bump even if all of them got infected during the storming of the Capitol.
And since I suspect most of them are anti-maskers (they wouldn't even mast to hide their identities, the dumbasses!) a lot of them had already been infected previously I am sure.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Doing a little stat whoring and saw at World-o-Meter that Georgia has had a notable spike in deaths. The odd thing is that the spike is less than a week past the peak in Georgia's New Cases. New cases are now declining. Curious about this, as it implies almost criminal undertesting, I went to their website. And then checked out their positivity rates (dated 1/11/21).

Holy mother of lumps! Three (3) counties under 10%, and they are close to 10%. Forty-three (43) counties between 10 to 20%.

For those playing the board game, there are 159 counties in Georgia. Do the math and over 2/3's of the state counties are above 20.0% positivity. 13 counties are above 30%.

So it looks like in a state like Georgia, a lot more dying is about to happen.

Then I tried to check out other states. The US on average is 10%. It appears the SE/S are the states that are generally guilty of the larger positivity rates... again.

 

[Derec]

For those playing the board game, there are 159 counties in Georgia. Do the math and over 2/3's of the state counties are above 20.0% positivity. 13 counties are above 30%.

The population is heavily concentrated in Metro Atlanta counties (chiefly Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, as well as Macon (Bibbs) and Savannah (Chatham). Most counties, specifically those >30% are sparsely populated. DeKalb and Fulton are doing relatively well at <15%. Chatham too.

So it looks like in a state like Georgia, a lot more dying is about to happen.

Hope not. On the plus side, we opened the vaccinations to >65 last week and there seems to be a lot of demand. So, knock on wood.

 

[Elixir]

Derec has not responded to my acceptance:

Had no time to post much. I've been neglecting other threads as well.

So - what's it going to be?
Seems you could have typed "yes" or "no" in less time than it took to excuse yourself.

...we opened the vaccinations to >65 last week and there seems to be a lot of demand. So, knock on wood.

You can "open" them to over 16 if it sounds good. You just can't actually vaccinate them.
A small increase in efficiency might be realized, depending on the appointment structure and how it's being administrated. But the bottleneck (no pun intended) is the supply of vaccine.

Latest comms from our County:
"At this time, we are asking everyone to please remain patient and follow our updates."

Following their updates takes about 20 minutes per follow, since you have to wade through all the time slots they're created, one day at a time. I've never seen any openings that were "available"except for a few for second shots (I'm looking for the first), so maybe it's like playing the lottery. Pretty apparent that like everyone else in the US, we've been screwed by Trump - and for no reason.

I still think that the County should have an automated notification process instead of keeping everyone constantly calling or logging in to no avail.

 

[Derec]

So - what's it going to be?
Seems you could have typed "yes" or "no" in less time than it took to excuse yourself.

Wasn't an excuse but a legitimate reason. I have not been posting anything for days.
And I have responded upthread. Did you read it?

You can "open" them to over 16 if it sounds good. You just can't actually vaccinate them.
A small increase in efficiency might be realized, depending on the appointment structure and how it's being administrated. But the bottleneck (no pun intended) is the supply of vaccine.

The bigger bottleneck seems the administration of the vaccine. But in any case, my point is that older adults are at an especially high risk of jospitalization and death. So opening vaccinations to them will lead to increase in those variables much faster than the general decrease in cases.

Following their updates takes about 20 minutes per follow, since you have to wade through all the time slots they're created, one day at a time. I've never seen any openings that were "available"except for a few for second shots (I'm looking for the first), so maybe it's like playing the lottery. Pretty apparent that like everyone else in the US, we've been screwed by Trump - and for no reason.

Counties administer sign up lists and actual delivery of vaccines into the arms. Not everything is Trump's fault. And there are big differences in how successful different states have been so far. WV for example already managed to vaccinate (1st dose) almost 10% of the population.

 

[Elixir]

I have responded upthread.

"Upthread" is over a hundred pages.
If you can't be arsed to write "yes" I'll assume you chickened out.

 

[Elixir]

Counties administer sign up lists and actual delivery of vaccines into the arms.

...which they could do if the mendacious TRUMP administration actually delivered what they promised.
The State (and therefore the county) was promised vaccines that never existed, by the Trump Junta.
Trump and his flunkies lied (I know you'll be shocked...).

 

[Derec]

"Upthread" is over a hundred pages.
If you can't be arsed to write "yes" I'll assume you chickened out.

Just a bit upthread. Posted just before the post you replied to. But I guess you are too lazy to look back one page. In any case, this is what I wrote.

Not so fast! Last time I made a mistake of having my prediction be the bet cutoff. So I could lose and things still be much closer to my prediction than your pessimistic one.

How about this instead. You tell me your "Doom and Gloom Talk" prediction for March 1st and the bet will be based on the geometric mean (more favorable to you than arithmetic mean, can't accuse me of not being fair). So what is your best prediction?

In other words, let's hear your predictions and then the bet will be based on both our predictions. Deal? Or are you not confident in your doom-and-gloom predictions enough?

 

[Derec]

...which they could do if the mendacious TRUMP administration actually delivered what they promised.

I don't know what you people will do now that Trump is just a private citizen again.
In any case, Trump administration was extremely incompetent, but that does not excuse say California being incompetent as well when it comes to actually administering the shots.

The State (and therefore the county) was promised vaccines that never existed, by the Trump Junta.
Trump and his flunkies lied (I know you'll be shocked...).

And yet some states are doing better in administering the shots they have than others. Just because Trump is bad does not make Newsome good at his job.

 

[Elixir]

"Upthread" is over a hundred pages.
If you can't be arsed to write "yes" I'll assume you chickened out.

Just a bit upthread. Posted just before the post you replied to. But I guess you are too lazy to look back one page. In any case, this is what I wrote.

Not so fast! Last time I made a mistake of having my prediction be the bet cutoff. So I could lose and things still be much closer to my prediction than your pessimistic one.

How about this instead. You tell me your "Doom and Gloom Talk" prediction for March 1st and the bet will be based on the geometric mean (more favorable to you than arithmetic mean, can't accuse me of not being fair). So what is your best prediction?

In other words, let's hear your predictions and then the bet will be based on both our predictions. Deal? Or are you not confident in your doom-and-gloom predictions enough?

Not being married to my feelings so much, I haven't made any predictions regarding deaths on March 1.
I showed you the projections of the experts. Under "ideal" conditions from now until 3/1, they are saying that 1218 would be the low end.

You did, however make a prediction; 600.
I don't blame you for excusing yourself from that blatantly foolish prediction.

My normal impulse would be to give you at least a chance...
Frankly, I don't want to gamble, and less than 1200/day is IMO within the realm of possibility, unlike 600.
It's also very much unlike your Happy Talk prediction that new cases will be averaging less than 15k/day by April 4.
You don't want to hold to your prediction, and I totally understand that.

 

[Worldtraveller]

Doing a little stat whoring and saw at World-o-Meter that Georgia has had a notable spike in deaths. The odd thing is that the spike is less than a week past the peak in Georgia's New Cases. New cases are now declining. Curious about this, as it implies almost criminal undertesting, I went to their website. And then checked out their positivity rates (dated 1/11/21).

Holy mother of lumps! Three (3) counties under 10%, and they are close to 10%. Forty-three (43) counties between 10 to 20%.

For those playing the board game, there are 159 counties in Georgia. Do the math and over 2/3's of the state counties are above 20.0% positivity. 13 counties are above 30%.

So it looks like in a state like Georgia, a lot more dying is about to happen.

Then I tried to check out other states. The US on average is 10%. It appears the SE/S are the states that are generally guilty of the larger positivity rates... again.

Yep. AZ and UT have been trading places the last few weeks for places with the highest per capita infections in the world.

 

[Elixir]

...which they could do if the mendacious TRUMP administration actually delivered what they promised.

I don't know what you people will do now that Trump is just a private citizen again.

Probably advocate for sensible actions, now that there is a sensible person in the White House who is willing to take actions instead of golfing.

In any case, Trump administration was extremely incompetent

What will you "I'm not a trumpsucker"s do now that you don't have a slothful moron with which to favorably compare yourselves?

The State (and therefore the county) was promised vaccines that never existed, by the Trump Junta.
Trump and his flunkies lied (I know you'll be shocked...).

And yet some states are doing better in administering the shots they have than others.

I hope you still hold that opinion come April... the States that are "doing better" long since stopped paying attention to the Trump administration's Happy Talk propaganda and began administering first doses asap.
I wish CO would do that, given that *some* protection is better than none, and early indications are that first doses do provide some protection. Still possible that it's a bad idea, if whatever immunity was realized from the first dose fades before second doses come available...

 

[Jokodo]

It looks like now that the stats have cought up with the Christmas - New Year lag, the 7 day average for deaths is still 400 above what it was before Christmas...

 

[Elixir]

As expected, the Biden team is finding out that the previous administration was not only asleep at the wheel, but denied the very existence of any "wheel".
Also expected, they will be ramping up testing and forcing the Defense Production Act on companies that can contribute to the PPE supply chain.
They're still saying that by March the dominant strain will be the more contagious "UK Variant".
On the bright side, Fauci, now free to tell the truth, (he looks like a new man, liberated from having to tread lightly under the glare of the orange blubber tub) says that he thinks it's realistic to get 70-80% of Americans vaccinated over the summer, effecting a return to relative "normalcy" by fall.