The World-O-Meter Thread

[Jimmy Higgins]

The South currently lags every one else. Probably know end of May if there is a vaccine wall.

 

[Elixir]

The South currently lags every one else. Probably know end of May if there is a vaccine wall.

Wow. That graphic is STARK!

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The South currently lags every one else. Probably know end of May if there is a vaccine wall.

I should follow that up as there will probably be plenty of anti-vaccine people in the north as well.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The South currently lags every one else. Probably know end of May if there is a vaccine wall.

Wow. That graphic is STARK!

Not as stark when looking at the legend, but the South is definitely lagging behind, like it always does.

 

[Elixir]

The South currently lags every one else. Probably know end of May if there is a vaccine wall.

Wow. That graphic is STARK!

Not as stark when looking at the legend, but the South is definitely lagging behind, like it always does.

The range isn't as great as the graphic might appear without a glance at the legend, but stark in its consistency. Georgia is the only "blue state" lagging. And it went blue in 2020 by ...what? Oh right, "just find me 11,780 votes", so - 11,779 votes.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Starting to feel a little bit optimistic... yesterday (Monday 4/19/21) there were "only" 51,650 new US cases and the 7-day average fell back below 70,000.
The death toll was 488, less than 0.1% of the new case number.
I'm not exactly ready to go full "Happy Talk" about it but the current trend is encouraging, esp regarding deaths.

The interesting questions we will soon face have to do with compulsory vaccinations. Soon we will hit the wall as far as getting people vaccinated. Does the government have the right to "force" vaccinations on people like they did with the polio vaccine? Do anti vaxxers have the "right" to go around infecting each other with no constraints? Do they have the "right" to serve as incubators for new possibly more dangerous variants that will cause more deaths and require yet more public resources to deal with them? Do businesses have the right to require proof of vaccination in certain circumstances?

I think we might end up with COVID-19 becoming mostly a Red State phenomenon, costing the rest of us dearly but letting the ignorati have their free-dumb. There are too many of them that are too ignorant and too brainwashed to force what's good for them upon them. We can only hope that there won't be enough of them to constitute a viable breeding ground for something even more horrible than what we've already been through.

What I'd like to see is vaccination required for various things--and expand the list over time.

 

[ZiprHead]

Not as stark when looking at the legend, but the South is definitely lagging behind, like it always does.

The range isn't as great as the graphic might appear without a glance at the legend, but stark in its consistency. Georgia is the only "blue state" lagging. And it went blue in 2020 by ...what? Oh right, "just find me 11,780 votes", so - 11,779 votes.

Michigan is purple and was one of the best covid responses in the country. Then the republicans hamstrung the governor and took away her emergency powers and now we are the worst by far.

Fucking republicans...

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Looks like India's numbers are utterly bogus: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1384782984138694658

Covid cremations far above Covid deaths.

Not to mention there's no mandatory death reporting in the first place. People can just bury their dead if they want to.

 

[Elixir]

Looks like India's numbers are utterly bogus: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1384782984138694658

Covid cremations far above Covid deaths.

Not to mention there's no mandatory death reporting in the first place. People can just bury their dead if they want to.

"Smoke 'em if you got 'em"?
India has billions of 'em - their gov probably couldn't care less as long they can keep their jobs.

 

[Elixir]

Here we sit, four days before the rabbitless Easter by which @Derec promised (offered to bet) that the US case 7-day average would be at or under 15K. Right now we are over 110cases for this less-than three-day-old week. We have already exceeded to total cases for the week required for a 15k/day average. So once again the Happy Talk misses the mark by over 100%

People are all freaked out about India, which is pushing 400k new cases a day, and they're burning piles of bodies in open pits - which is that main difference between them now and us a few months ago. They don't have as many refrigerator trucks. So we are lamenting how poorly they are handling the pandemic and forgetting that just a few months ago the US was pushing 300k cases/day WITH A QUARTER OF INDIA's POPULATION.

US has reported 1775 COVID deaths per million people.
The world average is 405.
India is reporting 147.
So even if India is twice as bad as their reporting says, they are still less than a fifth as bad as MAGA USA.

But cheer up - the ratio is getting better every day, and with any luck they'll be making us look good before long, right?
Our current 7-day average is still just a tick over 57,000 cases a day. If anyone out there wants to make an easy buck, our Happy Talker might still want to make some bets.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

People are all freaked out about India, which is pushing 400k new cases a day, and they're burning piles of bodies in open pits - which is that main difference between them now and us a few months ago. They don't have as many refrigerator trucks. So we are lamenting how poorly they are handling the pandemic and forgetting that just a few months ago the US was pushing 300k cases/day WITH A QUARTER OF INDIA's POPULATION.

US has reported 1775 COVID deaths per million people.
The world average is 405.
India is reporting 147.
So even if India is twice as bad as their reporting says, they are still less than a fifth as bad as MAGA USA.

Given how bad their reporting is their death toll might be higher than ours. There's also the time factor--they are blowing up horribly now.

 

[barbos]

Here we sit, four days before the rabbitless Easter by which @Derec promised (offered to bet) that the US case 7-day average would be at or under 15K. Right now we are over 110cases for this less-than three-day-old week. We have already exceeded to total cases for the week required for a 15k/day average. So once again the Happy Talk misses the mark by over 100%

People are all freaked out about India, which is pushing 400k new cases a day, and they're burning piles of bodies in open pits - which is that main difference between them now and us a few months ago. They don't have as many refrigerator trucks. So we are lamenting how poorly they are handling the pandemic and forgetting that just a few months ago the US was pushing 300k cases/day WITH A QUARTER OF INDIA's POPULATION.

US has reported 1775 COVID deaths per million people.
The world average is 405.
India is reporting 147.
So even if India is twice as bad as their reporting says, they are still less than a fifth as bad as MAGA USA.

But cheer up - the ratio is getting better every day, and with any luck they'll be making us look good before long, right?
Our current 7-day average is still just a tick over 57,000 cases a day. If anyone out there wants to make an easy buck, our Happy Talker might still want to make some bets.

Looks like India is 10 times worse than they are reporting, so it's ~1500 deaths per million. And even that seems low for a country which is famous for a lack of hygiene.

 

[Elixir]

People are all freaked out about India, which is pushing 400k new cases a day, and they're burning piles of bodies in open pits - which is that main difference between them now and us a few months ago. They don't have as many refrigerator trucks. So we are lamenting how poorly they are handling the pandemic and forgetting that just a few months ago the US was pushing 300k cases/day WITH A QUARTER OF INDIA's POPULATION.

US has reported 1775 COVID deaths per million people.
The world average is 405.
India is reporting 147.
So even if India is twice as bad as their reporting says, they are still less than a fifth as bad as MAGA USA.

Given how bad their reporting is their death toll might be higher than ours. There's also the time factor--they are blowing up horribly now.

For them, this is our December. Not gonna be a pretty picture.

Looks like India is 10 times worse than they are reporting, so it's ~1500 deaths per million. And even that seems low for a country which is famous for a lack of hygiene.

Patience, Grasshopper. They're just getting started.

 

[barbos]

Also, India apparently have double mutation variant which some suggest could highly immune to current vaccines.

 

[Elixir]

Also, India apparently have double mutation variant which some suggest could highly immune to current vaccines.

Oh man... now you're down to what "some suggest"?
Scraping the bottom of the barrel.

 

[barbos]

Also, India apparently have double mutation variant which some suggest could highly immune to current vaccines.

Oh man... now you're down to what "some suggest"?
Scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Well, it's obviously more contagious, that makes vaccines less effective in terms of herd immunity.
You don't really think that official 30x (in reality 100x) jump in infections rate is all due to relaxation of restrictions?

 

[Elixir]

You don't really think that official 30x (in reality 100x) jump in infections rate is all due to relaxation of restrictions?

Is that really a question? First of all, specify what time period you are talking about, and whether you mean globally, India alone or whatever population you refer to.
There have been numerous "30x increase" moments among various populations in the last 14 months. Most have not been solely due to "variants", but more attributable to stupidity and ignorance.
Higher levels of contagion will of course result in more cases, just as higher lethality would result in more deaths. That's a given, by definitions. But an entirely different proposition from what you say "some people suggest": that the vaccines are not effective against the new variants. AFAICS nobody has proven that any of these variants reduce the efficacy of any of the vaccines by more than a few percentage points (against infection, and even less against hospitalization of death). Historically, vaccines that show 70% efficacy are considered good. Most of the COVID vaccines in use show efficacy above 90%, so losing a few points wouldn't render them ineffective - ASSUMING that people get vaccinated.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Also, India apparently have double mutation variant which some suggest could highly immune to current vaccines.

Oh man... now you're down to what "some suggest"?
Scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Well, it's obviously more contagious, that makes vaccines less effective in terms of herd immunity.
You don't really think that official 30x (in reality 100x) jump in infections rate is all due to relaxation of restrictions?

In a country as densely populated as India? What I do find a bit chilling is the new cases and death charts appear to have little lag.

And India appears to be red lining on its ability to actually track infections. We do know that India has a few people that live there and they ran out of vaccine.

I'm a bit more interested in how Iran all of sudden shot up 3X in a couple of weeks, but is now reportedly plateau'd.

 

[Elixir]

What I do find a bit chilling is the new cases and death charts appear to have little lag.

Agreed. To me it says they're not diagnosing most cases until the patient is in dire shape.

Anyhow, Happy Easter II, everyone. No bunnies, no jelly beans, no creme eggs... what kind of deal is this anyhow?

Just 1pm here (Mt time zone), and we have only 15 States reporting 14,444 new cases today. Over 330,000 now for the week since 4/26.
But yesterday recorded a lowest single day reporting (42k+) in more than 7 months.
If there aren't another eighteen thousand + new cases reported today the 7-day average could go below 50,000.
A far cry from the latest Happy Talk prediction, but an encouraging trend nonetheless IMHO.

It will be interesting to see how bad the spread remains in regionally concentrated anti-vaxer/masker populations.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Here we sit, four days before the rabbitless Easter by which @Derec promised (offered to bet) that the US case 7-day average would be at or under 15K. Right now we are over 110cases for this less-than three-day-old week. We have already exceeded to total cases for the week required for a 15k/day average. So once again the Happy Talk misses the mark by over 100%

People are all freaked out about India, which is pushing 400k new cases a day, and they're burning piles of bodies in open pits - which is that main difference between them now and us a few months ago. They don't have as many refrigerator trucks. So we are lamenting how poorly they are handling the pandemic and forgetting that just a few months ago the US was pushing 300k cases/day WITH A QUARTER OF INDIA's POPULATION.

US has reported 1775 COVID deaths per million people.
The world average is 405.
India is reporting 147.
So even if India is twice as bad as their reporting says, they are still less than a fifth as bad as MAGA USA.

But cheer up - the ratio is getting better every day, and with any luck they'll be making us look good before long, right?
Our current 7-day average is still just a tick over 57,000 cases a day. If anyone out there wants to make an easy buck, our Happy Talker might still want to make some bets.

India doesn't have the resources to test as much as any western country. The official Indian stats are unlikely to be even close to the real situation for India. It'll be way worse.